Oil Prices Drop Below $72, Wiping Out War Premium After Strait of Hormuz Reopens

Shell expects its indicative refining margin for the third quarter to have jumped to $42 per barrel, up from $24 per barrel in the second quarter, a record high that the UK-based major disclosed on Wednesday in its third quarter 2026 update note ahead of full results on October 29. The surge comes as global refining margins have soared on limited fuel flows from the Middle East and Russia's ban on diesel exports, which have compounded a global fuel crunch and taken an estimated 7-8 million barrels per day of refined petroleum products off the market. Shell's refinery utilization rate fell from 102% in the second quarter to an estimated 93% to 97% in the third quarter, as low water levels on the Rhine River hit utilization at the Rheinland refinery in Germany. Trading in the gas and fuel divisions is expected to be in line with the second quarter, while gas production guidance was lifted to 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from 631,000 boe/d, including the completed acquisition of Canadian producer ARC Resources. Separately, Norway's Equinor guided on Wednesday for higher-than-expected earnings in its marketing, midstream, and processing division, citing unusually strong European refining margins and optimization in third-party LNG trading to push profits above the $400-million guidance.

Baker Hughes has agreed two large Venezuela deals to redevelop gas and oil infrastructure, according to an announcement in early October 2026. One agreement sets up an alliance to repair and expand Venezuela's natural gas network, a step toward possible future LNG exports, while a separate partnership supports new upstream and midstream oil and gas projects across the country. The practical test is whether the alliance with PDVSA, Lindsayca and Fulcrum and the MOU with New Stratus quickly convert into specific, OFAC cleared contracts with disclosed scope and value. The Venezuela work fits alongside Baker Hughes' existing Industrial & Energy Technology orders, including data center power orders of US$2.2b and US$7.1b of IET orders in Q2 2026, rather than replacing that story. Baker Hughes is a US based energy services provider with a reported market value of about $57.0b.

BKV Corporation announced that a wholly owned subsidiary has executed an equipment supply contract with a Tier 1 Supplier for natural gas-fired power generation equipment for its prospective power generation project in Texas, backed by a backstop agreement with a leading investment-grade hyperscaler that is also the intended off-taker. Under the backstop agreement, the hyperscaler has agreed to reimburse a portion of BKV's costs associated with the equipment and related project work, covering approximately 90% of the payments owed by BKV through March 31, 2027 under the equipment supply contract. The agreement supports procurement of long-lead-time equipment including gas turbines, reheat steam turbines, reheat heat recovery steam generators and a plant distributed control system, along with related auxiliary equipment and services. If BKV and the investment-grade hyperscaler have not reached mutually agreeable offtake arrangements by March 31, 2027, BKV may terminate the equipment supply contract at that time and have no further payment obligations thereunder. The equipment supply contract provides for approximately 1,200 megawatts of power generation equipment, with deliveries beginning in September 2028, supporting BKV's power growth strategy and closed-loop platform spanning natural gas production, power generation and carbon capture.

Equinor expects its marketing, midstream, and processing division to have earned more than the company's guidance of $400 million for the third quarter, driven by very strong refining margins and high proceeds from oil and LNG trading. The Norwegian energy major said in a quarterly update on Wednesday that unusually strong European refining margins combined with optimisation of equity and third-party LNG trading are expected to contribute positively to the result, with an average Dated Brent price of $97 per barrel for the quarter. In Norway operations, Equinor estimated its realized liquids price for the E&P Norway division was in the range of $97 to $99 per barrel in the third quarter, while the preliminary internal gas transfer price for the quarter is $18.07 per million British thermal units. For comparison, Equinor realized a European gas price of $15.8 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2026, up 32% from a year earlier, and a liquids price of $97.9 per barrel, a 55% jump year over year. Equinor is reporting full third-quarter results on October 28.