Republic Services raised its full-year revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow guidance and increased its quarterly dividend even as it absorbed lower waste volumes. The stock moved 4.7% higher after the Q2 update, though it has since softened, with a 7-day share price return down 2.1% and a 30-day return down 1.2%, leaving shares at a recent US$218.07. One popular narrative values Republic Services at a fair value of about $243.58, implying roughly 10.5% undervaluation, helped by sustainability efforts including Polymer Centers and the Blue Polymers joint venture, which are expected to contribute to earnings starting in the second half of 2025. A P/E cross-check is less forgiving: RSG trades at 30.5x earnings versus 18.3x for the US Commercial Services industry and an estimated fair ratio of 24.4x. Risks include persistent softness in construction-linked volumes and any stumble on the planned US$1b acquisition pipeline.
Republic Services Inc