SAV expects strong Q3 profit growth on flight recovery, target price 14.50 baht

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Summary · why it matters

Dao Securities stated that SAV reported a net profit for the second quarter of 2026 of 122 million baht, down 6 percent from the prior year and 15 percent from the previous quarter, roughly in line with market expectations. Total flight volume slowed to 30,000 flights, down 2 percent from the prior year and 12 percent from the previous quarter, as several airlines worldwide cancelled some flights due to the impact of higher fuel prices. Service revenue was 451 million baht, down 5 percent from the prior year and 8 percent from the previous quarter, in line with flight volume trends. Meanwhile, cost control remained effective, with a gross margin of 52.9 percent, compared with 51.4 percent in the second quarter of 2025 and 52.8 percent in the first quarter of 2026. The analyst maintains the 2026 profit forecast at 547 million baht, flat from the prior year, with first-half profit of 265 million baht, down 2 percent from the prior year, accounting for 48 percent of the full-year estimate. Second-half profit is expected to return to growth from the prior year and the first half, driven by a recovery in flights from seasonal factors and easing fuel prices. Total flight volume in July 2026 returned to growth of 8 percent from the prior year, the first growth in four months. The recommendation remains buy with a target price of 14.50 baht, based on discounted cash flow, with the assessment that second-quarter profit marked the bottom and will accelerate in the third and fourth quarters. Additional support comes from Airports of Thailand's auction and plans to bid for work from Aeronautical Radio of Thailand within 2026, which will enhance sustained profit growth opportunities. A first-half dividend of 0.40 baht per share was announced, representing a dividend yield of 3.4 percent.

Impact on assets 2

Industrials▲ · 2 stocks
Airports Of Thailand PCL
AOT
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Airports of Thailand's auction mentioned as additional support for SAV, implying potential business opportunity.

Off-coverage companies 1

Aeronautical Radio of Thailand (AEROTHAI)Private± Mixed
relevance

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