Cocoa prices settled higher on Monday amid the outlook for reduced production in West Africa. September ICE NY cocoa closed up 39 points, or 0.67%, while September ICE London cocoa gained 5 points, or 0.12%, as fund buying emerged on weather concerns. Ghana's cocoa regulator COCOBOD projected that the country's 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 metric tons, down from 750,000 metric tons projected for 2025/26, due to swollen shoot disease, aging farms, and the likelihood of adverse El Niño weather. Transgraph Consulting forecast the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 metric tons in 2025-2026, mainly on an expected production decline. Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop show below-average cherelle formation, with an average estimate of 1.8 million metric tons for the main harvest starting in September, down 18% from about 2.2 million metric tons in 2025/26. StoneX cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 metric tons from a previous forecast of 149,000 metric tons, citing El Niño risks. Limiting gains, Ghana's cocoa board reported 750,000 metric tons harvested for the 2025/26 season, up 25.6% from the prior year, and ICE cocoa inventories rose to a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags. Ivory Coast farmers shipped 2.11 million metric tons of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year, up 20% from a year ago, while Nigerian cocoa exports in June rose 30% year-over-year to 18,922 metric tons. European second-quarter cocoa grindings fell 4.6% to 316,366 metric tons, but North American grindings unexpectedly rose 7.7% to 109,659 metric tons and Asian grindings surged 25% to 224,646 metric tons.
Stonex Group IncStoneX cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate, implying higher prices which benefits its trading operations.
Reduced West African production outlook and smaller surplus forecasts lift cocoa prices.
