SpaceX Investors Should Watch Five Key Milestones After IPO

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas issued a bullish call on SpaceX, telling investors that roughly $159 to $160 represents a cheap entry point ahead of several key milestones, with a $300 price target on the stock. Jonas argues the market is properly valuing SpaceX's launch business and Starlink but not its chipmaking operations or the AI compute deals that generate $1 billion to $1.5 billion per month per client on an ARR basis. He frames the development slog before the next Starship launch, Flight 15, expected in late October or November, as the window for investors to buy before the stock catches up. Among the catalysts he and investors are watching are the Starship Flight 15 attempt to catch the vehicle back in the Mechazilla arms at Starbase, Starlink version 3 launches, a possible direct-to-consumer Starlink product for regular cell phones, the build-out of the Terra fab chip factory, additional AI compute deals, and the next iteration of the Grok chatbot and its agent component. Jonas is less enthusiastic about the direct-to-consumer Starlink push, citing the heavy terrestrial spending required and the challenge of converting customers, similar to the outlays seen from AT&T and Verizon.

Law firms Schall, Brown & Schwartz LLP and Rosen Law Firm have announced securities class action lawsuits against AST SpaceMobile, alleging misleading statements about its capital resources, competitive position and user adoption between March 4, 2025 and July 15, 2026. The cases focus on whether AST SpaceMobile misrepresented its balance of cash, debt and share issuance while scaling its satellite network, raising fresh questions about how robust its funding model really was during this critical buildout phase. The allegations land against the backdrop of the August 2026 launch of BlueBird satellites 11 to 13, which pushed the constellation further toward continuous coverage in initial markets. Before these lawsuits, the most pessimistic analysts already assumed revenue might reach about US$2.1 billion by 2029 while warning that heavy dilution and a possible 7 percent annual share count increase could still leave AST SpaceMobile trading at over 100 times earnings. AST SpaceMobile's narrative projects $2.2 billion revenue and $190.9 million earnings by 2029, requiring 165.5% yearly revenue growth and an $809.7 million earnings increase from -$618.8 million today.

AT&T CEO John Stankey said Elon Musk-led Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s plan to roll out a cellular network will not work, arguing fiber-based connectivity beats satellites. In an interview with Axios on Tuesday, Stankey said fiber is three times faster than satellite networks and that satellite, even at its best over the next 10 years, still will not beat fiber. Asked about SpaceX's plan to install cellular base stations alongside Starlink dishes, Stankey said it would cost as much as building a macro network to handle those capabilities, and that companies cannot radiate cellular signals from someone's house without permission. He cited a whole bunch of reasons why SpaceX's plan would not work. Earlier this month, SpaceX won Federal Communications Commission approval to provide international telecommunications services, boosting its plans for direct-to-cell 5G connectivity via the Starlink constellation, and the FCC is set to vote on September 30 on unlocking an additional 1,000 MHz of spectrum for satellite broadband.