SpaceX IPO splits space trade, lifting incumbents while newer space stocks slide

SpaceX launched four astronauts to the International Space Station on Thursday aboard a Crew Dragon capsule, marking the company's 13th crew rotation mission for NASA. The crew, consisting of two Americans, one Canadian, and one Russian cosmonaut, lifted off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral, Florida, on a Falcon 9 rocket. According to Bloomberg space correspondent Lauren Grush, the mission comes amid speculation that SpaceX may retire the Crew Dragon once the ISS program ends, with only four more crew rotation missions currently scheduled. The crew will spend roughly a week aboard the station before the previous Crew 12 team returns to Earth following a handover. Three of the four astronauts on this flight are first-time flyers.

Boeing and NASA are in discussions to expand the Starliner vehicle's flight manifest by 10 or more future missions, according to reports from The Wall Street Journal. The potential expanded operational mandate comes as NASA prepares for sustained low Earth orbit objectives, offering Boeing a vital opportunity to stabilize its Defense, Space & Security segment. Boeing's Space segment recorded $7.5 billion in Q2 2026 revenue, up 13% year-over-year, despite a small operating loss of $15 million, and the company carries a $715 billion total corporate backlog along with $20.0 billion in cash and short-term investments. Any Starliner expansion directly affects the competitive landscape for private launch leaders like Space Exploration Technologies Corp., which delivered 55% sequential growth in Space segment revenues to $962 million in Q2 2026 while executing 78 launches. Boeing's Defense, Space & Security posted a negative 0.2% operating margin in Q2 2026, dragged down by fixed-price program cost overruns including a $280 million charge on the VC-25B, and the company holds $45.9 billion in consolidated debt.

NASA and Boeing are in talks about using Boeing's Starliner vehicle to handle 10 or more new flights to low-Earth orbit in the coming years, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday. The Starliner has not flown since summer 2024, when performance problems including failed thrusters that posed safety risks left two astronauts stuck on the International Space Station for months; the astronauts returned to Earth on SpaceX's Crew Dragon vehicle, and the Starliner came back empty. SpaceX's Crew Dragon has been the only certified vehicle to carry NASA astronauts to the space station from the U.S., but SpaceX has stopped making new Dragon ships and has not said publicly when it plans to stop operating the ship. NASA said Friday it awarded SpaceX three additional astronaut missions to the space station using Crew Dragon, flights worth an average of $315M each and running through 2030. Few other options exist for flights to low-Earth orbit: Northrop Grumman has a cargo capsule that flies to the space station for NASA but not a human-rated one, while Russia flies vehicles to the ISS that handle crews and cargo.

SpaceX shares jumped 11% to $127.49 after Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $160 price target, citing rapid growth in AI computing capacity. The upgrade reversed earlier selling pressure tied to the company's post-IPO share-lockup expiration and heavy capital spending disclosed in its first quarterly report. Peers rallied in sympathy, with Intuitive Machines up 9% to $16.25, Rocket Lab up 8% to $81.56 after completing its 92nd Electron mission, AST SpaceMobile up 5% to $70.68, Virgin Galactic up 6% to $3.12, and Planet Labs up 5% to $23.86. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report showing a loss of 23,000 jobs versus an expected gain of 80,000 reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike, boosting appetite for capital-intensive growth names. Despite the rally, SpaceX remains down 15% over the past month, and the newly unlocked float could still cap upside.