Stifel cuts Nike EPS estimates by $0.20 for fiscal 2027 and 2028

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Stifel analyst Peter McGoldrick slashed his earnings-per-share estimates on Nike by $0.20 for fiscal years 2027 and 2028, citing near-term risk from increased promotional activity on Nike products in the US. McGoldrick said his hang-up on risk-reward remains insufficient consumer demand for new products, while Hoops Classics, which accounts for 18% of revenue, continues to shrink, and he flagged risk to the multiple at 17x CY27E P/E versus a footwear median of 11x if there is another delay to the turnaround timeline. The call adds to a rough stretch for Nike, whose stock is down 44% this year and 51% over the past year, and which will be removed from the S&P 100 today, ending an 18-year streak. Soccer icon Kylian Mbappé ended his long-term business tie-up with Nike last week and announced he will join Swiss sports giant On, while Dick's Sporting Goods warned in late August about its business in part because Nike is heavily discounting slow-moving product. In late June, Nike reported fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $11 billion, a 1% decline on a reported basis and a 4% drop on a currency-neutral basis, with diluted earnings per share of $0.72 distorted by a $0.52 per share one-time benefit from an expected tariff recovery. Nike projected fiscal first quarter revenues to be down by low-to-mid-single-digit percentages and reiterated flat earnings per share growth over the next three quarters, excluding benefits from tariff recovery proceeds, while Evercore ISI analyst Michael Binetti wrote that there are no hints yet that revenues can turn positive in the foreseeable future.

Impact on assets 3

Consumer Discretionary± Mixed · 3 stocks
Nike Inc
NKE
▼ NegativeCapitalDemandrelevance

Stifel cut Nike's EPS estimates by $0.20 for FY27 and FY28, flagging insufficient consumer demand and risk to the multiple.

On Holding Ltd
ONON
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Kylian Mbappé ended his Nike tie-up and will join On, a notable endorsement win for the Swiss sports brand.

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc
DKS
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

Dick's Sporting Goods warned in late August about its business in part because Nike is heavily discounting slow-moving product.

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