TISCO expects hospital group Q2 2026 profit to bottom at 6.43 billion baht, highlights BDMS with target of 23 baht

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TISCO Securities expects combined profit of the hospital group in the second quarter of 2026 to be 6.43 billion baht, down 0.7% from the same period last year and 6.2% from the first quarter, marking the lowest point of the year. A recovery is anticipated in the second half. The firm maintains a buy recommendation on BDMS with a fair value of 23 baht per share. Core profit is projected at 6.36 billion baht, down 1.7% year-on-year and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter. Excluding RAM, which grew from consolidating THG, core profit would decline 3.0% year-on-year and 8.9% quarter-on-quarter. Core revenue of the group is expected at 46.2 billion baht, up 7.7% year-on-year but down 2.3% quarter-on-quarter, pressured by the impact of the US-Iran conflict on international patients throughout the quarter, the absence of revenue from Cambodian patients, and sluggish domestic spending. EBITDA margin is forecast to decline to 24.0% from 25.1% in the second quarter of last year and 25.2% in the first quarter of this year. The outlook for the third quarter is expected to improve both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by a recovery in international patient revenue, particularly from the Middle East which returned to year-on-year growth in July for the first time since the conflict began, and a more favorable comparison base after the pressure from Cambodian patients subsided.

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