Trinity Securities estimates that Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited, or BBL, will report third-quarter 2026 profit of 9.563 billion baht, up slightly 1% QoQ but down 31% YoY. The year-on-year decline is because the third quarter of 2025 included mark-to-market gains on investments that boosted investment income. The research team expects net interest income to weaken about 1% QoQ on softer loans, while NIM is expected to have stabilised after passing its trough last quarter. Non-interest income is expected to weaken 4% QoQ due to lower investment gains, especially from bond prices hit by rising bond yields, and seasonally lower dividend income. Loan-loss provisions are expected to fall 4% QoQ, in line with a slight improvement in NPLs after last quarter's relapse of some NPLs. If profit comes in as expected, nine-month 2026 profit would be about 73% of the research team's 2027 profit forecast of 40.953 billion baht, or -11% YoY. Because fourth-quarter 2026 profit is expected to weaken on seasonal expenses, full-year profit may fall short of the research team's full-year forecast, so the profit estimate may need to be cut after this third-quarter 2026 earnings release. The share price decline means upside is emerging versus the research team's 2027 target price of 206 baht, even with some downside from a profit forecast cut. It therefore maintains a "buy on weakness" recommendation, with risks from an economic slowdown and debt quality.
Bangkok Bank PCLTrinity expects BBL's Q3 2026 profit to fall 31% YoY and warns the full-year profit forecast may need to be cut.
