UOB Kay Hian Sets NTF Target at 23.30 Baht, 83.5% Upside, Expects Q3 Profit to Grow 110%

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Analysts at UOB Kay Hian (Thailand) maintained their buy rating on NTF shares with a target price of 23.30 baht, implying 83.5% upside compared with the closing price on October 6, 2026, based on a PE69 valuation of 10.7 times, slightly above the agricultural sector average, citing strengths in growth rate, a value-added business model, and the fact that external risk factors have largely been priced out. The company disclosed that it currently has forward orders for 2027 worth about 5.5 billion baht, or 67% of the company. For the third-quarter 2026 earnings outlook, it estimates net profit at 78 million baht, up 110% from the same period last year but down from the previous quarter on seasonal factors, and estimates operating revenue at 860 million baht, up 93% from the same period last year, driven by higher durian output and expansion into new provinces in China. Meanwhile, durian export volume in the third quarter of 2026 stood at 5,200 tonnes, up 80.1% from the same period last year, supported by increased capital after its IPO and a bond issuance used as working capital to deliver goods against orders. The company remains confident in the Chinese durian market, where consumption is currently only 1.3 kilograms per person, and targets frozen durian at about 8-10% of total sales.

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