Wolfe Research Analyst Says Semiconductor Oversupply Nearly Impossible Before 2028

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Wolfe Research Senior Analyst Chris Caso argued on CNBC that a semiconductor oversupply is nearly impossible before 2028 at the earliest, citing physical capacity constraints across the industry. He noted that TSMC is completely sold out and that new fabs take years to build, with the current up cycle requiring brand-new buildings. Caso pointed to severe supply constraints in memory, with Micron Technology posting fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion, up 345.7% year over year, and a GAAP gross margin of 84.6%. He also highlighted NVIDIA's first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $81.61 billion, up 85.2%, and AMD's data center revenue of $5.78 billion, up 57%, as evidence that AI-driven demand continues to outpace supply. Caso defended NVIDIA's supply-chain investments, including backstopping $500 billion to SK Hynix and $250 billion to OpenAI, as necessary to expand capacity.

Impact on assets 7

Semiconductors▲ · 4 stocks
Micron Technology Inc
MU
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Micron's strong revenue and gross margin cited as evidence of severe supply constraints and high demand.

SK Hynix Inc
000660
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

NVIDIA's backstopping $500 billion to SK Hynix mentioned as necessary to expand capacity.

Artificial Intelligence▲ · 2 stocks
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

NVIDIA's revenue growth cited as evidence of AI demand outpacing supply; supply-chain investments defended.

Cloud & Digital Infrastructure▲ · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 7

Off-coverage companies 1

OpenAIPrivate± Mixed
relevance

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