Advanced Info Service vs True: why the prices moved differently

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  Broker downgrade on slowing 2027-28 revenue CGS International cut ADVANC to Reduce and slashed its target to 323 baht, warning service revenue will slow in 2027-2028. That pulled the shares down over 3% and shows analysts are split on how much growth is left after a strong run.

  This is the main new negative force this period and explains the sharp price drop.

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  iPhone 18 demand beats supply, lifting sales and ARPU Demand for the iPhone 18 is outstripping supply, which lifts handset sales and the average monthly bill per user (ARPU) as customers bundle new service packages. Analysts expect 15% net profit growth in 2026 and see any shortage as just shifting revenue between months.

  This is a fresh positive demand driver that supports earnings and the share price.

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  Court dismisses 1.2bn baht NT claim, removing legal risk Thailand's Supreme Administrative Court finally dismissed a 1.223 billion baht claim against ADVANC's subsidiary DPC, so it will not have to pay. This removes a legal overhang, though two smaller related cases worth 1.98 billion baht are still pending.

  A final court win is a new, concrete positive that reduces uncertainty for investors.

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  New AiPASS package and Yuanta upgrade add support ADVANC launched a 29-baht AiPASS package first, which could add up to 870 million baht in revenue. Separately, Yuanta raised its 2026-27 profit forecasts and upgraded to Buy with a 403 baht target, calling the ~350 baht price attractive.

  These are new positive developments that help offset the downgrade and support the stock.

Based on 6 stories →

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  First-half profit growth ADVANC's first-half 2026 net profit rose 26.18% to 27.2 billion baht, making it a standout in telecom. Strong earnings show the business is healthy and supports a higher share price.

  Confirms the company's fundamental profit growth, a key reason investors pay more for the stock.

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  Q2 core profit up 24%, forecast maintained ADVANC's Q2 2026 core profit grew 24% year-on-year, and analysts kept the 2026 profit forecast at 55 billion baht with a BUY rating and 398 baht target. Steady growth reassures investors.

  Shows the profit trend is on track, giving analysts confidence to keep a positive view.

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  iPhone 18 launch and high season to boost Q4 ADVANC expects a strong Q4 2026 from high season and new iPhone 18 sales starting September-October. Analysts see ADVANC benefiting from selling both devices and 5G packages, with a 411 baht target.

  New iPhone models and seasonal demand are near-term catalysts for revenue and profit growth.

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  Defensive pick if Fed hikes rates TTB Wealth warns a Fed rate hike could push the SET down 5-10%, but names ADVANC as a group whose earnings growth can withstand tight money. This makes it a safer choice if markets get rocky.

  Highlights ADVANC's relative appeal in a potentially tough market, supporting demand for the stock.

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  Q2 profit up 25%, interim dividend 8.69 baht ADVANC reported Q2 2026 net profit of 13.716 billion baht, up 25% from a year earlier, and declared an interim dividend of 8.69 baht per share (XD 19 Aug). Revenue rose 5.8% on 5G and home broadband growth. Brokers set target prices of 398–400 baht. This directly lifts the shares.

  The earnings beat and dividend are the main new event driving the stock this period.

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  Huawei Cloud partnership for Thai manufacturing AIS Business signed an MoU with Huawei Cloud to provide cloud and 5G private network solutions to Thai factories, enabling AI-driven manufacturing. This expands ADVANC's enterprise business beyond telecom, supporting future revenue growth and making the stock more attractive.

  A new enterprise deal that opens a fresh growth segment for ADVANC.

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  2026 guidance: 3–5% revenue growth, 30–35bn baht capex ADVANC targets service revenue growth of 3–5% and EBITDA growth of 2–4% in 2026, with capital spending of 30–35 billion baht. The plan funds 5G, broadband and new businesses like cloud, data centre and virtual bank, supporting long-term growth but also raising near-term spending.

  Forward guidance and investment plans shape investor expectations for future earnings.

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  Brokers flag ADVANC as defensive dividend pick Amid oil-driven market turmoil, GBS and Bualuang Securities named ADVANC a resilient, high-dividend stock with strong fundamentals. Bualuang expects Q2 profit up 24% year-on-year and recommends a defensive dividend strategy. This supports demand for the shares in a shaky market.

  Analyst recommendations and defensive positioning can attract buyers even when the overall market is weak.

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  Chinese data-centre and AI investment wave Chinese firms confirmed over 70 billion baht of Thai investment in data centres, AI and optical tech. More data centres and cloud demand mean more high-speed connections sold by ADVANC, supporting revenue growth and lifting the shares.

  This is the main new force behind ADVANC's positive re-rating this period.

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  US power crunch pushes data centres to Thailand DBS says US electricity shortages may speed up data-centre investment into Thailand, where Microsoft, Google and AWS are already spending billions. That boosts demand for ADVANC's digital infrastructure and network services, a fresh positive for the stock.

  New analyst view directly linking global data-centre trends to ADVANC's demand outlook.

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  Exclusive UEFA football rights for AIS PLAY ADVANC secured exclusive rights to five European football competitions for four seasons from 2027/28, streaming on AIS PLAY. Premium sports content attracts and keeps subscribers, supporting revenue and making the stock more attractive.

  Company-specific deal that strengthens ADVANC's content offering and subscriber base.

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  World-first multi-operator eSIM for enterprises AIS Business, with Bridge Alliance and Thales, launched the world's first multi-operator eSIM for enterprises, improving cross-border IoT connectivity. This opens a new business segment as Asia-Pacific IoT connections are forecast to reach 1.3 billion by 2030.

  New technology partnership that could drive future enterprise revenue for ADVANC.

Based on 8 stories →

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  Record Q3 profit forecasts from multiple brokers Several brokers now expect TRUE's Q3 2026 profit to hit a record around 7 billion baht, up over 300% from last year, driven by mobile and broadband revenue growth, cost cuts, and lower interest costs. This boosts confidence in the merger's earnings power and supports the stock.

  This is the main new positive catalyst this period, with multiple analysts raising profit expectations and target prices.

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  New 29-baht AiPASS package with ADVANC TRUE and ADVANC launched a 29-baht monthly AiPASS package from October 1, 2026, tied to the TH-AI Passport project. It could add up to 870 million baht in revenue (0.5% of TRUE's revenue) and is seen as slightly positive, with TRUE named a top pick.

  This is a new product launch that could lift future revenue and shows TRUE's participation in a government-backed digital initiative.

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  Court dismisses TRUE's petition, 7.02bn baht arbitration ruling stands The Central Administrative Court dismissed TRUE's petition to revoke an arbitration award, leaving a 7.02 billion baht payment plus 15% annual penalty in effect. TRUE can still appeal, but the case remains a long-term overhang, though some analysts say the risk is already priced in.

  This is a new legal development that could result in a large cash outflow and weighs on sentiment, though the final outcome is not yet decided.

Based on 6 stories →

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  Q2 core profit up 62% on spectrum savings and synergies TRUE's Q2 core profit rose 62% year-on-year, helped by lower spectrum costs and merger synergies. Bualuang raised its 2026 profit forecast to 26 billion baht and kept a Trading Buy with a 15.10 baht target. This supports the stock because it shows the merger is delivering real cost savings and higher earnings.

  This is a new earnings update that directly boosts profit expectations and supports the share price.

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  TRUE wins 2.01bn baht USO 3 contracts for northern and central regions TRUE's subsidiary True Internet won two of five USO 3 high-speed internet contracts, worth about 2.01 billion baht. The work is spread over five years, with revenue starting in 2027. It adds steady government income, but the profit impact is small because government margins are low and TRUE's share in the joint ventures is not yet known.

  This is a new contract win that adds revenue visibility, though the financial benefit is limited.

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  TRUE shifts to quarterly dividends with at least 70% payout TRUE will pay quarterly dividends and raised its payout policy to at least 70% of net profit, up from 60%. Krungsri expects the dividend yield to rise to about 6% in 2027. This makes the stock more attractive to income-focused investors and supports demand for the shares.

  This is a new capital return policy that directly increases shareholder payouts and supports the stock.

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  CGS downgrades telecom sector, cuts TRUE target to 16.30 baht CGS cut its rating on Thai telecoms from Overweight to Underweight, warning of slower service revenue in 2027-2028. It lowered TRUE's 2026-2027 earnings forecasts by 3.6-8.6% and cut its target price to 16.30 baht, though it kept an Add rating. This pressures the stock by raising doubts about future growth.

  This is a new negative analyst view that directly lowers earnings expectations and the target price.

Based on 8 stories →

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  Kasikorn Securities maintains buy with 16.77 baht target After stronger-than-expected Q2 results, Kasikorn Securities kept its buy rating and 16.77 baht target, noting core profit beat estimates. However, it warned that EBITDA growth may slow in the second half and the stock could lack fresh catalysts after a strong three-year run. The buy rating supports demand, but the cautious note limits upside.

  Analyst ratings directly influence investor demand and set expectations for future price moves.

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  AWS partnership to boost AI and satellite broadband TRUE announced a strategic partnership with Amazon's AWS to use AI for customer service, cloud management, and network maintenance, and to study Amazon's Leo satellite for expanding broadband coverage. This supports revenue growth and efficiency, especially in the second half, and positions TRUE in the hot AI theme that has been drawing foreign money into Thai telecoms.

  This is a new growth catalyst that could drive future revenue and keeps TRUE in a popular investment theme.

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  CP Group, AIS, True, and Amazon join forces for AI hub CP Group, AIS, TRUE, and Amazon announced a five-year partnership to make Thailand a regional AI hub, including making TRUE an AI-first organization and training 3 million Thais. This strengthens TRUE's long-term digital capabilities and ties it to national AI ambitions, which can attract investor interest and support the share price.

  A major strategic alliance that enhances TRUE's long-term growth story and market positioning.

Based on 6 stories →

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  Record Q2 profit and first dividend TRUE reported Q2 net profit of 6.55 billion baht, up 223% from a year earlier, its sixth straight profitable quarter, and declared a first interim dividend of 0.15 baht per share. Strong profit and a new dividend make the stock more attractive to income and growth investors.

  This is the core new fundamental event that directly drives TRUE's valuation and investor appeal.

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  Data-centre expansion via $2bn loan True IDC, a TRUE subsidiary, is negotiating a $2 billion loan to build a new data centre near Bangkok. This adds a new growth engine tied to AI and cloud demand, and keeps TRUE in a hot investment theme that has already attracted foreign money into Thai telecoms.

  It shows a concrete new capital investment that could lift future earnings and sustain the data-centre theme supporting TRUE's price.

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  China Mobile stake sale overhang China Mobile is considering selling up to 1% of TRUE (about 345 million shares) to rebalance its portfolio, though it denies exiting its 7.81% holding. The mere possibility of a large shareholder selling creates selling pressure and uncertainty, pulling the share price down even though the company says it won't affect operations.

  This is the main new negative force that has directly pushed TRUE's shares down this period and remains an unresolved overhang.

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  Revenue target cut but profit outlook intact TRUE lowered its 2026 service revenue growth target to 1-2% from 2-3%, citing fewer tourists and softer enterprise demand, but kept its EBITDA growth target of 7-9% and capex unchanged. The cut signals weaker sales, yet the focus on efficiency and spectrum savings means profits can still grow, so the net effect is mixed.

  It is a new negative on demand that is partly offset by maintained profit targets, giving a balanced view of what is driving the stock.

Based on 10 stories →

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  Q2 profit expected to jump sharply Brokers expect TRUE's second-quarter profit to rise 77% to 232% from a year earlier, helped by lower network costs, better margins and merger savings. Strong earnings growth makes the stock more attractive and supports a higher target price.

  This is the core new fundamental driver of TRUE's price this period.

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  Data centre and AI investment theme lifts telecoms US power shortages may push more data-centre and cloud investment into Thailand, which would boost demand for TRUE's digital infrastructure. Telecom stocks rose against a falling market on this theme, with TRUE gaining over 2%.

  It explains the new sector-wide demand driver pushing TRUE higher.

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  Foreign money flowing into Thai telecoms Over 44 billion baht of foreign money has moved into Thai stocks since early July, concentrated in communications names like TRUE. This extra buying demand helps push the share price up.

  It shows a concrete capital-flow force behind TRUE's recent strength.

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  False shareholding claim hurts confidence A person falsely claimed to own over 7% of TRUE shares through the SEC's system, and regulators filed a criminal complaint. The fake claim itself did not change TRUE's business, but it damaged trust in Thai market data and briefly weighed on sentiment.

  It is the main counterweight this period and a new event affecting TRUE's perceived risk.

Based on 9 stories →