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Bangchak vs Star Petroleum Refining: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (BCP.BK)

Latest
▲3▼1

SAF fuels BCP upgrade; diesel supply cuts and G7 release pull both ways

  • SAF business drives profit upgrade BCP's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant started commercial operation in May 2026 and is already making about 1 billion baht per quarter. Brokers expect this to grow to 8 billion baht a year by 2027, prompting InnovestX to keep a 75 baht target and Yuanta to upgrade BCP to Buy with 58 baht fair value.

    This is the main new company-specific catalyst lifting BCP's earnings outlook and broker ratings.

  • Tighter diesel supply supports refining margins Russia is set to extend its diesel export ban to end-October, and the US is also restricting diesel exports. This cuts global diesel supply and pushes up diesel refining margins, which directly boosts BCP's refinery profit because it has the highest diesel yield among Thai refiners.

    This is a new supply-side event that raises BCP's core refining profitability.

  • Brokers raise BCP target prices on strong margins Krungsri kept a Buy on BCP and raised its 2027 target to 68 baht, expecting 2026 profit to jump 277% from the E&P business. Kasikorn also expects Singapore refining margins to recover in late Q4 2026 as winter demand tightens the market, which would lift all Thai refiners including BCP.

    New analyst upgrades and margin recovery forecasts directly support BCP's share price.

  • G7 crude release and diesel price cap pressure margins G7 nations are releasing 100 million barrels of crude and diesel, and Saudi Arabia cut its selling price to Asia. This weighs on refining margins. Meanwhile, the 4-baht diesel price cut could reduce refinery profits by 4-10%, and the Oil Fund's deficit raises the risk of further government intervention.

    This is the main new counterweight that could cap BCP's upside despite the positive SAF and supply news.

Q3 2026
▼2▲1

Geopolitical gains offset by government price controls and operational risks

  • Geopolitical tensions lift refining margins US-Iran tensions pushed Brent crude above $90–100, boosting refining margins and upstream profits. Q2 2026 net profit hit a record 12.24 billion baht, up 60% on estimates, driven by the new SAF business and a 3 baht interim dividend (6% yield).

    This is the main positive force behind BCP's earnings and stock price during the period.

  • Government diesel price cuts and freezes Government intervention weighed heavily: diesel price cuts and freezes cost roughly 2.98 billion baht in Q3 and 2.19 billion baht later, extended to October 2027. This directly reduced BCP's refining margins and profitability.

    This is a major negative factor that offset positive earnings and pressured the stock.

  • Operational and leadership uncertainties An oil leak at the Rama 3 pipeline threatens costs and penalties, and a CEO change unsettled investors. These events added uncertainty and potential financial liabilities, weighing on sentiment.

    These are new negative developments that affected investor confidence and potential costs.

  • Analyst optimism vs. peak margin warnings Analysts raised targets as high as 69.70 baht, and BCP announced plans to double earnings by 2030. However, analysts warn refining margins have peaked, with the Oil Fund's 92.3-billion-baht deficit potentially shifting burdens onto refiners.

    This captures the mixed outlook: positive long-term plans and analyst upgrades contrasted with warnings of peak margins and future risks.

September 2026
▲2▼2

Geopolitical gains offset by diesel freeze and leadership change

  • Middle East tensions lift refining margins Middle East tensions pushed Brent above $100, boosting refining margins. Thailand's early diesel export ban lift favored BCP, which has the region's highest diesel yield (43%), while a planned US diesel export ban added momentum.

    This positive driver explains the main force behind BCP's strong run during the period.

  • Broker target hikes Broker target hikes, including Kiatnakin raising its target by 56% to 69.70 baht, added momentum to the stock.

    This positive driver reflects analyst optimism that supported the stock's momentum.

  • Diesel price freeze extended and deepened The government extended its diesel price freeze to October 2027 and deepened the cut to 4 baht per litre, costing BCP roughly 2.19 billion baht.

    This negative driver represents a major regulatory headwind that pressured BCP's earnings outlook.

  • Oil leak and CEO change unsettle investors An oil leak at its Rama 3 pipeline threatens repair costs and penalties. The new CEO's appointment ended a 12-year era, unsettling investors, while analysts warn refining margins have peaked and the Oil Fund's 92.3-billion-baht deficit could shift burdens onto refiners, capping upside.

    This negative driver highlights operational and leadership risks that weighed on sentiment and capped gains.

▲2▼2

BCP: New CEO, GRM Peak Warning, US Diesel Ban Boost

  • New CEO appointment ends 12-year era BCP appointed Bundit Hansapaiboon as new CEO, ending Chaiwat Kovavisarach's 12-year tenure. The stock fell nearly 3% on uncertainty over leadership transition. A new boss may change strategy, so investors worry about execution risk.

    This is a new event that directly affects investor confidence and the stock price.

  • US plan to ban diesel exports tightens global supply The US is preparing a 90-day ban on diesel exports to lower domestic fuel prices. This would tighten global diesel supply and lift refining margins for Asian refiners like BCP. BCP shares rose 2.76% on the news.

    This is a new regulatory event that directly boosts BCP's refining profitability outlook.

  • Brokers hike BCP target prices on strong refining margins Kiatnakin Phatra raised BCP's target price 56% to 69.70 baht, forecasting 2026 profit of 27.4 billion baht. Maybank kept a 65 baht target, expecting a second-half dividend above 3 baht. Higher targets attract investors.

    New analyst upgrades reflect improved earnings expectations and can drive buying interest.

  • GRM peak warning and Oil Fund deficit pressure Bualuang says refining margins have peaked and rates BCP a hold with a 57 baht target. Separately, the Oil Fund's 92.3 billion baht deficit may lead to burden-shifting that pressures refinery profits. These cap upside.

    These are new counterweights that could limit BCP's stock gains despite positive news.

▲2▼2

Oil surge lifts BCP, but diesel price caps and pipeline leak weigh

  • Diesel export ban lifted early The government plans to lift the diesel export ban in early September, earlier than expected. This boosts 2026 earnings, and BCP benefits most because it has the highest diesel yield at 43%.

    Directly raises BCP's earnings outlook and stock price.

  • Oil prices surge on Middle East conflict Brent crude rose above $100 and even tested $110 due to US-Iran tensions and Houthi attacks. Higher oil prices lift refining margins and make energy stocks like BCP more attractive.

    Key external force driving energy stock prices, including BCP.

  • Government extends and deepens diesel price cut The Energy Policy Committee extended the diesel ex-refinery price freeze to October 2027 and later increased the cut to 4 baht per litre. This will reduce BCP's refinery profit by about 2.19 billion baht and adds policy risk.

    Directly cuts BCP's earnings and weighs on the stock.

  • Oil leak at Rama 3 pipeline An oil leak was found at a pipeline in Rama 3. BCP's subsidiary BFPL operates the pipeline and must fix it and may replace the pipeline, which could lead to costs and regulatory penalties.

    New operational and financial risk for BCP.

August 2026
▲3▼1

BCP's record Q2 profit and growth plan offset by diesel price cut

  • Record Q2 profit on refining margins and SAF BCP swung to a 12.24 billion baht profit in Q2, 60% above estimates, as refining margins soared to $18.4 per barrel and the new sustainable aviation fuel business added about 1 billion baht in earnings.

    This is the main positive event of the period, showing a huge earnings beat that likely boosted investor confidence.

  • Analyst target hikes and growth plan Analysts raised their price targets to as high as 65.70 baht, and BCP announced a five-year plan to double earnings by 2030 and reach 1 trillion baht in revenue by 2031, signaling long-term growth.

    These forward-looking actions reflect improved sentiment and strategic ambition, which can support the stock price.

  • Interim dividend declared BCP declared a 3 baht per share interim dividend, offering a 6% yield, which provides immediate income to shareholders and may attract income-focused investors.

    The dividend is a tangible return of cash to shareholders, often supporting the stock price.

  • Government diesel price cut to hit Q3 profit The government's 2.40 baht per litre cut to the ex-refinery diesel price is expected to reduce Q3 net profit by about 2.98 billion baht, creating a near-term earnings headwind.

    This is a significant negative factor that could pressure the stock in the near term, balancing the positive news.

▲3▼1

BCP's 5-year growth plan and new dividend drive the stock

  • 5-year plan targets doubling EBITDA and 1 trillion baht revenue BCP announced a 5-year strategy to double EBITDA by 2030 and reach 1 trillion baht revenue by 2031, with record H1 results and a share buyback. This gives investors a clear long-term growth path, boosting confidence and the stock price.

    This is the biggest new company-specific event that directly shapes BCP's future earnings and investor sentiment.

  • Interim dividend of 3 baht per share announced BCP declared an interim dividend of 3 baht per share, a 6% yield, sending shares up 6.53%. The payout reflects strong first-half earnings and supports the stock by returning cash to shareholders.

    This is a new, concrete shareholder return event that directly lifted the stock price this period.

  • Foreign brokers raise BCP target price on refining outlook Morgan Stanley raised its BCP target to 65.70 baht from 51 baht, citing tight refining supply and a petrochemical recovery. Higher targets from major brokers can attract more investors and push the stock up.

    This is a new analyst action that reflects improving sentiment and can influence buying decisions.

  • Government diesel price cut to hit Q3 refining profit The government approved a 2.40 baht per litre cut in ex-refinery diesel price for 31 days, expected to reduce BCP's Q3 net profit by about 2.98 billion baht. This directly lowers near-term earnings and weighs on the stock.

    This is a new regulatory action that creates a real counterweight to the positive drivers.

▲4

BCP Q2 profit surges on refining margins and SAF, analysts raise targets

  • Q2 profit jumps to 12.2 billion baht, beating estimates BCP swung to a Q2 net profit of 12.24 billion baht from a loss a year earlier, with revenue up 46%. The result beat analyst estimates by 60%, driven by strong refining margins and first-time SAF earnings. This directly boosts investor confidence and the stock price.

    This is the main new event that explains the stock's recent move and future earnings power.

  • SAF business starts contributing profit BCP began commercial sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in May, adding about 1 billion baht to EBITDA. SAF turns waste into jet fuel and opens a new profit stream, supporting long-term growth and making BCP less dependent on traditional oil refining.

    SAF is a new business line that is already adding to profits and is a key part of the bullish case.

  • Tight oil supply from Strait of Hormuz closure lifts refining margins The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has tightened global energy supply, pushing BCP's gross refining margin to $18.4 per barrel, up 314% from a year ago. Higher margins mean BCP earns much more from each barrel it refines, directly boosting profit.

    This is the key external force driving BCP's core profitability and explains the profit surge.

  • Analysts raise target price to 62 baht on strong outlook Krungsri Securities raised its 2026 core profit forecast by 215% and its 2027 target price to 62 baht, maintaining a buy. CGSI also recommends BCP after the earnings beat. Higher targets and buy calls can attract more investors, pushing the stock up.

    Analyst upgrades reflect the improved fundamentals and can drive near-term buying interest.

July 2026
▲3▼1

BCP rides oil spike and SAF profit, but government caps diesel margins

  • US-Iran war pushes oil above $90, lifting energy stocks The US-Iran conflict has pushed Brent crude above $90, boosting BCP's upstream and refining profits. Higher oil prices mean BCP earns more from each barrel it sells, and energy stocks are in favour with investors.

    This geopolitical event is the main force driving oil prices and BCP's earnings outlook.

  • BCP forecasts Q2 net profit surge to 10 billion baht on SAF BCP expects Q2 2026 net profit around 10 billion baht, up 66% from Q1, as hedging losses shrink and the new sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) business starts contributing. Core profit is seen rising 25%, and the analyst raised the target price to 48 baht.

    This is a company-specific earnings forecast that directly affects BCP's valuation and investor confidence.

  • BCP raises retail fuel prices by 0.90 baht per litre Following higher global oil prices, Bangchak raised retail fuel prices by 0.90 baht per litre. This directly increases revenue per litre sold, though the government subsidy fund partly absorbs the cost to protect consumers.

    Retail price hikes flow straight to BCP's marketing revenue and margins.

  • Government cuts ex-refinery diesel price, squeezing refinery margins Thailand's Energy Policy Committee will cut the ex-refinery diesel price by 2.40 baht per litre from 24 July to 15 August, using surplus refining profits to fund the discount. This limits how much BCP can earn from refining diesel, though global margins remain high.

    This regulatory move directly reduces BCP's refining margin and caps upside, a key counterweight to the positive drivers.

▲3▼1

BCP rides oil spike and SAF profit, but government caps diesel margins

  • US-Iran war pushes oil above $90, lifting energy stocks The US-Iran conflict has pushed Brent crude above $90, boosting BCP's upstream and refining profits. Higher oil prices mean BCP earns more from each barrel it sells, and energy stocks are in favour with investors.

    This geopolitical event is the main force driving oil prices and BCP's earnings outlook.

  • BCP forecasts Q2 net profit surge to 10 billion baht on SAF BCP expects Q2 2026 net profit around 10 billion baht, up 66% from Q1, as hedging losses shrink and the new sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) business starts contributing. Core profit is seen rising 25%, and the analyst raised the target price to 48 baht.

    This is a company-specific earnings forecast that directly affects BCP's valuation and investor confidence.

  • BCP raises retail fuel prices by 0.90 baht per litre Following higher global oil prices, Bangchak raised retail fuel prices by 0.90 baht per litre. This directly increases revenue per litre sold, though the government subsidy fund partly absorbs the cost to protect consumers.

    Retail price hikes flow straight to BCP's marketing revenue and margins.

  • Government cuts ex-refinery diesel price, squeezing refinery margins Thailand's Energy Policy Committee will cut the ex-refinery diesel price by 2.40 baht per litre from 24 July to 15 August, using surplus refining profits to fund the discount. This limits how much BCP can earn from refining diesel, though global margins remain high.

    This regulatory move directly reduces BCP's refining margin and caps upside, a key counterweight to the positive drivers.

Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd (SPRC.BK)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

SPRC Rallies on High Margins, Then Falls on Diesel Cap and Margin Collapse

  • Middle East Tensions Boost Oil Prices and Refining Margins Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude above $90–$100, lifting refining margins and sending SPRC shares up 8.63% in July. Thai refined oil exports also jumped 120% in July, supporting revenue.

    This was a key positive force driving SPRC's stock higher early in the quarter.

  • Strong Q2 Profit and Attractive Dividend Yield SPRC swung to a 6.9-billion-baht profit in Q2 and declared a 0.50-baht interim dividend. Brokers raised target prices up to 19.70 baht, citing a debt-free balance sheet and an 8–10% dividend yield.

    This fundamental strength attracted income-focused investors and supported the stock price.

  • Government Diesel Price Cap Cuts Profits Thailand's government capped diesel prices, reducing SPRC's Q3 profit by roughly 1.4 billion baht, with a later doubling of the cut to about 994 million baht. This regulatory move directly hurt earnings.

    This was a major negative event that weighed on SPRC's financial performance and stock price.

  • Singapore Refining Margins Collapse and Hidden Costs Emerge Singapore refining margins fell from over $20 to $9.2–10.6, and hidden costs added 3–6 baht per litre. Brokers began warning investors to avoid refinery stocks, pressuring SPRC shares.

    This sharp decline in industry margins and rising costs turned sentiment negative and drove the stock lower.

September 2026
▲3▼1

SPRC: Diesel Export Boost vs. Margin Collapse and Price Caps

  • Diesel export ban may end early Thailand's diesel export ban could be lifted sooner than expected, which would allow SPRC to sell more diesel abroad. Since SPRC produces a high share of diesel, this directly boosts its sales and profit.

    This is a new positive development that could increase SPRC's revenue and earnings.

  • Middle East tensions lift oil prices and refining margins Rising tensions in the Middle East pushed Brent crude toward $100–110 per barrel. Higher oil prices often lift refining margins, which means SPRC earns more from turning crude into fuels like diesel and gasoline.

    This new geopolitical event supports higher refining margins, a key profit driver for SPRC.

  • Broker upgrades on strong dividends TISCO raised its target price to 14.90 baht and CGSI to 16.5 baht, citing SPRC's attractive dividend yield of 8–10%. This makes the stock appealing to income-focused investors.

    New analyst upgrades and dividend appeal can attract buyers and support the stock price.

  • Refining margins collapse and diesel price cuts extended Singapore refining margins fell sharply to $9.2–10.6 from over $20, and the government extended and doubled diesel price cuts, cutting SPRC's profit by about 994 million baht. Brokers now warn to avoid refinery stocks.

    This new negative development directly reduces SPRC's profitability and has led to broker warnings.

Latest
▼2▲1

Government diesel price cuts and peaking refining margins pressure SPRC, but strong oil prices and dividends support

  • Government extends diesel price freeze, cutting SPRC profit by ~994 million baht Thailand's Energy Policy Committee extended the diesel ex-refinery price cut to 31 October 2027, reducing SPRC's profit by about 994 million baht. This government intervention directly lowers the price SPRC gets for its diesel, squeezing earnings and weighing on the stock.

    This is a new, concrete regulatory hit that directly reduces SPRC's profit and is a major negative driver.

  • Diesel price cut doubled to 4 baht, brokers warn to avoid refinery stocks The government increased the diesel ex-refinery price cut to 4.00 baht per litre, effective 16 September to 31 October 2026. SPRC shares fell 5% as brokers like Dao Securities advised avoiding refinery stocks, citing heightened policy risk and weaker Q3 earnings.

    This is a new escalation of the price cut that directly caused a sharp drop in SPRC's stock and negative broker sentiment.

  • CGSI rates SPRC Buy, raises target to 16.5 baht on strong GRM outlook CGS International Thailand recommends buying SPRC and raised its target price to 16.5 baht, lifting 2026-2028 EPS forecasts. It expects SPRC's refining margin to stay solid and sees the recent share price pullback as a buying opportunity, supporting the stock.

    This is a new analyst upgrade with a higher target price, providing a positive catalyst for SPRC's stock.

  • Broker says refining margin has peaked, but SPRC rated hold on attractive dividends Bualuang Securities says the Singapore refining margin has passed its peak and will fall to $8 per barrel in 2027. It recommends selling other refiners but maintains a hold on SPRC with a 14.60 baht target, citing attractive dividends of 8-10% in 2026.

    This is a new warning that the key profit driver (refining margin) is peaking, which is a negative, but SPRC's hold rating and dividend appeal provide some support.

▲3

SPRC lifted by diesel export restart, Middle East oil spike, broker upgrades

  • Diesel export ban may end early, boosting SPRC's high diesel yield Thailand's energy minister proposed lifting the diesel export ban by early September, months sooner than expected. SPRC makes a lot of diesel (37% of output), so it can sell more abroad at better prices, adding to 2026 earnings and supporting the stock.

    This is a new, concrete policy change that directly raises SPRC's sales and profit outlook.

  • Middle East conflict pushes Brent crude toward $100-$110, lifting refining margins Renewed US-Iran fighting and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions have pushed Brent crude to near $100-$110 a barrel. Higher crude prices usually widen the profit margin for refiners like SPRC, and analysts name it a top pick to benefit from tight energy supply.

    This is the main new force behind SPRC's move, as multiple fresh reports tie oil's surge to refinery stock gains.

  • TISCO raises SPRC target to 14.90 baht, sees 8% dividend yield TISCO turned positive on SPRC after strong first-half results, lifting 2026-2028 earnings forecasts by 18-29% and its fair value to 14.90 baht. It also raised the 2026 dividend estimate to 1.55 baht per share, about an 8% yield, calling SPRC the group's most attractive dividend play.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with higher earnings and dividend estimates directly supports the share price.

  • Singapore refining margin falls to $9.2-$10.6, a real drag Even as oil prices rise, the key Singapore refining margin has dropped sharply to about $9.2-$10.6 a barrel from over $20 earlier. That means SPRC earns less per barrel processed, a genuine counterweight to the bullish oil-price and export news.

    It is the main negative force this period and gives a fair, balanced picture of what is driving SPRC.

August 2026
▲2▼2

SPRC swings to profit, but diesel price caps and margin dip weigh

  • Q2 profit swing and interim dividend SPRC reported a Q2 net profit of 6.9 billion baht, a big turnaround from a loss, and paid an interim dividend of 0.50 baht per share. This shows the company is generating cash and rewarding shareholders.

    This is a major new financial result that directly boosts investor confidence and supports the stock price.

  • Broker upgrades and strong export demand Morgan Stanley raised its SPRC target price to 19.70 baht, citing strong 2026 profit forecasts. Thai refined oil exports jumped 120% in July, adding real demand support for SPRC's products.

    Analyst upgrades and surging exports are new positive catalysts that can drive the stock higher.

  • Diesel price cap to cut Q3 profit The government's 2.40 baht per litre diesel price cut is expected to reduce Q3 profit by about 1.4 billion baht. This directly squeezes SPRC's refining margin and limits profit growth.

    This is a new government action that threatens near-term earnings and acts as a drag on the stock.

  • Hidden costs and falling refining margins Hidden costs like crude premiums, freight, and insurance add 3–6 baht per litre, while Singapore refining margins slipped 7% week-on-week to $20.10. These pressures weigh on refinery stocks.

    These new cost and margin pressures offset positive factors and could keep the stock under pressure.

▲2▼1

Refining margins stay high, but diesel price cut and margin dip are real drags

  • Foreign brokers hike SPRC targets on tight global refining supply Morgan Stanley raised its SPRC target to 19.70 baht from 12.90, and KKPS lifted its 2026 Singapore refining margin forecast to $19.60 a barrel, raising SPRC's target 64% to 14.80 baht. Tight supply from Middle East and Russia refinery damage keeps margins high, pushing the stock up.

    This is the main new force lifting SPRC's price this period.

  • Government diesel price cut and falling margins squeeze profits The government approved a 2.40 baht per litre cut in ex-refinery diesel prices for 31 days, expected to hit SPRC's Q3 net profit by about 1.4 billion baht. Singapore refining margins also fell 7% week-on-week to $20.10, pressuring refinery stocks.

    This is the main counterweight that can pull SPRC's price down.

  • Thai refined oil exports boom, adding demand support July exports surged 21.6% year-on-year, with refined oil exports expanding 120%, benefiting SPRC and peers. Strong export demand for refined products supports refinery earnings and the stock.

    Shows a new demand-side driver for SPRC's products.

▲3▼1

SPRC swings to profit, pays dividend, as oil supply fears lift refining margins

  • SPRC swings to Q2 profit and pays interim dividend SPRC reported a second-quarter net profit of 6.9 billion baht, a big turnaround from a loss a year earlier, and will pay an interim dividend of 0.50 baht per share. This shows the company is generating strong cash and rewards shareholders, which supports the share price.

    This is the most concrete new event that directly affects SPRC's value and investor returns.

  • Middle East tensions keep oil supply tight, boosting refining margins Iran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the US meets conditions, and Brent crude jumped 5% on stalled talks. Tight oil supply keeps crude prices high, which widens the profit margin for refiners like SPRC, pushing its shares up.

    This geopolitical force is the main driver behind higher refining margins and SPRC's profit surge.

  • Brokers raise target prices and profit forecasts on strong outlook Three brokers recommend buying SPRC with target prices up to 11.50 baht, citing higher refining margins and tight oil supply. They forecast 2026 profit to jump over 300% and see a high dividend payout, which attracts investors and lifts the stock.

    Analyst upgrades reflect and reinforce the positive earnings outlook, influencing investor sentiment and demand for the stock.

  • Hidden costs and government measures could squeeze margins Refiners face rising hidden costs like crude premiums, freight, and insurance, adding up to 3-6 baht per litre. Government measures to cap diesel prices and oil inventory losses also threaten profits, acting as a counterweight to the positive drivers.

    This is the main risk that could limit SPRC's profit growth and share price gains, providing a fair balance to the positive news.

July 2026
▲2▼1

SPRC jumps on Middle East oil supply fears, but government caps refining margins

  • Middle East tensions push oil above $90, boosting refining margins Iran's attacks on US bases and the US re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened oil supply, sending Brent above $90. This lifts refining margins for SPRC, as higher crude prices and product spreads mean more profit per barrel. SPRC shares jumped 8.63% on July 24, leading the refinery group.

    This is the main force driving SPRC's price up this period.

  • Government cuts diesel price, squeezing refinery margins Thailand's Energy Policy Committee lowered the ex-refinery diesel price by 2.40 baht per litre from July 24 to August 15, using surplus refining profits to fund the discount. This directly reduces SPRC's refining margin per barrel, acting as a cap on profits and share price gains.

    This is a new regulatory headwind that limits SPRC's upside.

  • Analyst raises SPRC target price on strong earnings outlook Krungsri Securities raised its SPRC target price to 11.50 baht, citing prolonged US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz closure. It expects 2026 profit to jump 303% to 14.87 billion baht. SPRC is debt-free and dividend yield is seen rising 15% over five years.

    This shows analyst confidence in SPRC's earnings power, supporting the stock.

  • Q2 energy profits seen down 26.6% year-on-year CGS International forecasts Thai energy sector Q2 2026 profits to fall 26.6% year-on-year due to weaker refining margins. However, SPRC is among stocks with the highest year-on-year profit growth (up 666.8%) from a low base last year, showing recovery potential.

    This provides a counterweight: past weak margins but strong rebound expected.

▲2▼1

SPRC jumps on Middle East oil supply fears, but government caps refining margins

  • Middle East tensions push oil above $90, boosting refining margins Iran's attacks on US bases and the US re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened oil supply, sending Brent above $90. This lifts refining margins for SPRC, as higher crude prices and product spreads mean more profit per barrel. SPRC shares jumped 8.63% on July 24, leading the refinery group.

    This is the main force driving SPRC's price up this period.

  • Government cuts diesel price, squeezing refinery margins Thailand's Energy Policy Committee lowered the ex-refinery diesel price by 2.40 baht per litre from July 24 to August 15, using surplus refining profits to fund the discount. This directly reduces SPRC's refining margin per barrel, acting as a cap on profits and share price gains.

    This is a new regulatory headwind that limits SPRC's upside.

  • Analyst raises SPRC target price on strong earnings outlook Krungsri Securities raised its SPRC target price to 11.50 baht, citing prolonged US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz closure. It expects 2026 profit to jump 303% to 14.87 billion baht. SPRC is debt-free and dividend yield is seen rising 15% over five years.

    This shows analyst confidence in SPRC's earnings power, supporting the stock.

  • Q2 energy profits seen down 26.6% year-on-year CGS International forecasts Thai energy sector Q2 2026 profits to fall 26.6% year-on-year due to weaker refining margins. However, SPRC is among stocks with the highest year-on-year profit growth (up 666.8%) from a low base last year, showing recovery potential.

    This provides a counterweight: past weak margins but strong rebound expected.

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