BT vs Ares Management LP: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

BT Group Plc (BT-A.LSE)

Q3 20268 Jul – 3 Oct 2026

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BT's Verizon JV and TalkTalk rescue bid reshape its future

Verizon joint venture BT and Verizon will merge their international business units into a 50:50 joint venture, with Verizon paying $625m. This gives BT more scale and a cloud/AI platform to sell to big companies worldwide, which can lift future profits and supports the share price.
This is a major new deal that changes BT's international business and growth prospects.
5G fast lanes and net neutrality BT-owned EE is pushing UK regulators to relax net neutrality rules and has launched a premium 5G fast-lane service costing £5 extra. If rules allow paid prioritisation, BT can charge more for better speeds, boosting revenue and profit.
This regulatory shift could let BT earn extra fees from premium services, directly helping its finances.
AI agent disruption fears BT shares fell about 4% as investors worried that Meta's new AI agent could make it easier for customers to switch telecom providers. If AI tools reduce customer loyalty, BT may face higher churn and need to spend more to keep subscribers, hurting profits.
This shows a new competitive threat from AI that could pressure BT's customer base and margins.
TalkTalk rescue bid BT made a last-minute bid for TalkTalk's wholesale arm, PXC, which owes Openreach about £300m. A rival warns this could create a broadband monopoly and trigger a long competition probe. Buying PXC could add customers and infrastructure, but regulatory delays and political opposition create uncertainty.
This is a major new event that could significantly expand BT's wholesale business but also brings regulatory risk.

August 20268 Jul – 3 Oct 2026

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BT's Verizon JV and TalkTalk rescue bid reshape its future

Verizon joint venture BT and Verizon will merge their international business units into a 50:50 joint venture, with Verizon paying $625m. This gives BT more scale and a cloud/AI platform to sell to big companies worldwide, which can lift future profits and supports the share price.
This is a major new deal that changes BT's international business and growth prospects.
5G fast lanes and net neutrality BT-owned EE is pushing UK regulators to relax net neutrality rules and has launched a premium 5G fast-lane service costing £5 extra. If rules allow paid prioritisation, BT can charge more for better speeds, boosting revenue and profit.
This regulatory shift could let BT earn extra fees from premium services, directly helping its finances.
AI agent disruption fears BT shares fell about 4% as investors worried that Meta's new AI agent could make it easier for customers to switch telecom providers. If AI tools reduce customer loyalty, BT may face higher churn and need to spend more to keep subscribers, hurting profits.
This shows a new competitive threat from AI that could pressure BT's customer base and margins.
TalkTalk rescue bid BT made a last-minute bid for TalkTalk's wholesale arm, PXC, which owes Openreach about £300m. A rival warns this could create a broadband monopoly and trigger a long competition probe. Buying PXC could add customers and infrastructure, but regulatory delays and political opposition create uncertainty.
This is a major new event that could significantly expand BT's wholesale business but also brings regulatory risk.

Latest8 Jul – 3 Oct 2026

▲2▼1

BT's Verizon JV and TalkTalk rescue bid reshape its future

Verizon joint venture BT and Verizon will merge their international business units into a 50:50 joint venture, with Verizon paying $625m. This gives BT more scale and a cloud/AI platform to sell to big companies worldwide, which can lift future profits and supports the share price.
This is a major new deal that changes BT's international business and growth prospects.
5G fast lanes and net neutrality BT-owned EE is pushing UK regulators to relax net neutrality rules and has launched a premium 5G fast-lane service costing £5 extra. If rules allow paid prioritisation, BT can charge more for better speeds, boosting revenue and profit.
This regulatory shift could let BT earn extra fees from premium services, directly helping its finances.
AI agent disruption fears BT shares fell about 4% as investors worried that Meta's new AI agent could make it easier for customers to switch telecom providers. If AI tools reduce customer loyalty, BT may face higher churn and need to spend more to keep subscribers, hurting profits.
This shows a new competitive threat from AI that could pressure BT's customer base and margins.
TalkTalk rescue bid BT made a last-minute bid for TalkTalk's wholesale arm, PXC, which owes Openreach about £300m. A rival warns this could create a broadband monopoly and trigger a long competition probe. Buying PXC could add customers and infrastructure, but regulatory delays and political opposition create uncertainty.
This is a major new event that could significantly expand BT's wholesale business but also brings regulatory risk.

Q2 202621 Jun – 1 Jul 2026

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BT's Verizon JV reshapes outlook; Ofcom AI warning adds risk

BT and Verizon form 50:50 international JV BT will combine its international enterprise business with Verizon's in a 50:50 joint venture serving over 3,000 multinational customers across 180+ countries, with about $4 billion in combined annual revenue. Verizon pays BT $625 million. This simplifies BT's international exposure and brings cash, supporting the shares.
The JV is the single biggest new event driving BT's investment story this period.
BT cuts annual guidance after JV Because BT International moves into the JV, BT lowered fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to £17.1–17.6 billion from £19–19.5 billion and trimmed EBITDA to £8.1–8.2 billion. The dividend growth outlook was kept. The smaller reported business weighs on sentiment even if the JV is strategic.
Guidance cuts directly affect how investors value BT's earnings and dividend cover.
Ofcom warns AI could cause network blackouts Ofcom warned that AI in telecom networks could trigger catastrophic outages and said operators like BT face fines under the Telecoms Security Act if they mismanage the risk. This follows BT's £17.5 million penalty for a 2023 999 outage. It adds regulatory and reputational pressure.
New regulatory risk that could mean costs or fines for BT.
Verizon's JV charges and market reaction Verizon disclosed up to $1.4 billion in charges tied to the JV, including severance and asset write-downs, and its shares fell. For BT, the deal brings $625 million and scale, but near-term restructuring costs and Verizon's weakness create uncertainty about how smoothly the JV will deliver benefits.
Shows the counterweight: the JV has real costs and execution risk, not just upside.

June 202621 Jun – 1 Jul 2026

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BT's Verizon JV reshapes outlook; Ofcom AI warning adds risk

BT and Verizon form 50:50 international JV BT will combine its international enterprise business with Verizon's in a 50:50 joint venture serving over 3,000 multinational customers across 180+ countries, with about $4 billion in combined annual revenue. Verizon pays BT $625 million. This simplifies BT's international exposure and brings cash, supporting the shares.
The JV is the single biggest new event driving BT's investment story this period.
BT cuts annual guidance after JV Because BT International moves into the JV, BT lowered fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to £17.1–17.6 billion from £19–19.5 billion and trimmed EBITDA to £8.1–8.2 billion. The dividend growth outlook was kept. The smaller reported business weighs on sentiment even if the JV is strategic.
Guidance cuts directly affect how investors value BT's earnings and dividend cover.
Ofcom warns AI could cause network blackouts Ofcom warned that AI in telecom networks could trigger catastrophic outages and said operators like BT face fines under the Telecoms Security Act if they mismanage the risk. This follows BT's £17.5 million penalty for a 2023 999 outage. It adds regulatory and reputational pressure.
New regulatory risk that could mean costs or fines for BT.
Verizon's JV charges and market reaction Verizon disclosed up to $1.4 billion in charges tied to the JV, including severance and asset write-downs, and its shares fell. For BT, the deal brings $625 million and scale, but near-term restructuring costs and Verizon's weakness create uncertainty about how smoothly the JV will deliver benefits.
Shows the counterweight: the JV has real costs and execution risk, not just upside.

21 Jun – 1 Jul 2026

▼2▲1

BT's Verizon JV reshapes outlook; Ofcom AI warning adds risk

BT and Verizon form 50:50 international JV BT will combine its international enterprise business with Verizon's in a 50:50 joint venture serving over 3,000 multinational customers across 180+ countries, with about $4 billion in combined annual revenue. Verizon pays BT $625 million. This simplifies BT's international exposure and brings cash, supporting the shares.
The JV is the single biggest new event driving BT's investment story this period.
BT cuts annual guidance after JV Because BT International moves into the JV, BT lowered fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to £17.1–17.6 billion from £19–19.5 billion and trimmed EBITDA to £8.1–8.2 billion. The dividend growth outlook was kept. The smaller reported business weighs on sentiment even if the JV is strategic.
Guidance cuts directly affect how investors value BT's earnings and dividend cover.
Ofcom warns AI could cause network blackouts Ofcom warned that AI in telecom networks could trigger catastrophic outages and said operators like BT face fines under the Telecoms Security Act if they mismanage the risk. This follows BT's £17.5 million penalty for a 2023 999 outage. It adds regulatory and reputational pressure.
New regulatory risk that could mean costs or fines for BT.
Verizon's JV charges and market reaction Verizon disclosed up to $1.4 billion in charges tied to the JV, including severance and asset write-downs, and its shares fell. For BT, the deal brings $625 million and scale, but near-term restructuring costs and Verizon's weakness create uncertainty about how smoothly the JV will deliver benefits.
Shows the counterweight: the JV has real costs and execution risk, not just upside.

Ares Management LP (ARES)

Q3 202622 Jun – 2 Oct 2026

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Ares hits record fundraising but faces credit and redemption risks

Record Q2 fundraising and AUM growth Ares raised a record $36B in Q2, pushing assets under management up 17% to $671B. Fee-related earnings rose 20%, helped by $170B of dry powder ready to invest.
This shows the core growth engine that drove positive sentiment and price support.
New fund and private credit deals expand footprint Ares raised $4.2B for its first Global Structured Solutions Fund, far above target, and closed major private credit deals like Phoenix Tower and Plenitude, broadening its investment reach.
These new initiatives signal future fee income and strategic expansion.
Retail redemptions and high default rates pressure outlook Retail investors are pulling money from the $23B Strategic Income Fund, keeping withdrawals above its 5% quarterly cap. A record 6.0% US private-credit default rate raises credit-quality concerns.
These are the main headwinds that could hurt fee income and investor confidence.
Redemption pressure eases slightly but retail access expands Redemption pressure eased slightly from 14.4% to 13.1%, but expanded retail access via Revolut adds new redemption exposure, keeping the risk of sudden outflows alive.
This captures the nuanced balance between improving outflows and new sources of potential volatility.

September 202627 Sep – 2 Oct 2026

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Ares Expands Private Credit and Infrastructure with Big Deals and Fundraise

Redemption pressure eases Ares Strategic Income Fund's withdrawal requests fell to 13.1% from 14.4%, signaling stabilizing private credit redemptions. This reduces forced selling and supports fee income, a positive for ARES stock.
Shows improving capital stability, directly impacting ARES's private credit business.
AUM target and growth Ares targets over $750B AUM by 2028, with 17% YoY growth and $34.4B net inflows. This ambitious plan signals confidence and future fee growth, likely lifting investor sentiment and ARES's valuation.
Provides forward-looking growth target that drives long-term earnings expectations.
Major private credit deals Ares provided $2B of a $6.5B financing for Phoenix Tower and upsized Plenitude investment by over €1B. These large deals expand Ares's private credit footprint and demonstrate deal-sourcing strength, boosting revenue and reputation.
Highlights significant capital deployment that directly increases fee-paying AUM and earnings.
Successful fundraise Ares raised $4.2B for its inaugural Global Structured Solutions Fund, far above its $1B target. This adds fee-paying AUM and validates Ares's ability to attract capital, supporting future management fees.
Demonstrates strong fundraising capability, a key driver of ARES's revenue growth.

Latest27 Sep – 2 Oct 2026

▲4

Ares Expands Private Credit and Infrastructure with Big Deals and Fundraise

Redemption pressure eases Ares Strategic Income Fund's withdrawal requests fell to 13.1% from 14.4%, signaling stabilizing private credit redemptions. This reduces forced selling and supports fee income, a positive for ARES stock.
Shows improving capital stability, directly impacting ARES's private credit business.
AUM target and growth Ares targets over $750B AUM by 2028, with 17% YoY growth and $34.4B net inflows. This ambitious plan signals confidence and future fee growth, likely lifting investor sentiment and ARES's valuation.
Provides forward-looking growth target that drives long-term earnings expectations.
Major private credit deals Ares provided $2B of a $6.5B financing for Phoenix Tower and upsized Plenitude investment by over €1B. These large deals expand Ares's private credit footprint and demonstrate deal-sourcing strength, boosting revenue and reputation.
Highlights significant capital deployment that directly increases fee-paying AUM and earnings.
Successful fundraise Ares raised $4.2B for its inaugural Global Structured Solutions Fund, far above its $1B target. This adds fee-paying AUM and validates Ares's ability to attract capital, supporting future management fees.
Demonstrates strong fundraising capability, a key driver of ARES's revenue growth.

July 202622 Jun – 31 Jul 2026

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Ares hits record fundraising, but retail credit redemptions and defaults weigh

Retail private credit funds cap withdrawals again Ares again limited withdrawals from its $23 billion Strategic Income Fund after redemption requests topped 14%, above the 5% quarterly cap. This shows retail investors pulling money out, which pressures Ares's fee income and signals stress in its fastest-growing retail channel.
Directly explains a key force pushing ARES down: retail redemption pressure forcing withdrawal caps.
Record $36B fundraising and 17% AUM growth Ares raised a record $36 billion in Q2, with assets under management up 17% to $671 billion and fee-related earnings up 20%. Strong institutional demand and $170 billion of dry powder support future fee growth, a clear positive for the stock.
Shows the core earnings engine still growing strongly, the main positive force for ARES.
Record 6% private credit default rate clouds resilient earnings Fitch reported a record 6.0% US private-credit default rate, even as Ares and Blue Owl posted solid results. Rising defaults raise concerns about credit quality and future fund performance, a real counterweight to Ares's strong fundraising and earnings.
Provides the key counterweight: credit deterioration that could offset Ares's growth story.
Revolut opens private market funds to retail investors Revolut now offers Ares private credit and equity funds to eligible European customers via ELTIF 2.0. This widens Ares's retail reach and could boost long-term fundraising, though it also adds exposure to retail redemption risk.
New distribution channel expands demand for Ares funds, a positive growth driver.

22 Jun – 31 Jul 2026

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Ares hits record fundraising, but retail credit redemptions and defaults weigh

Retail private credit funds cap withdrawals again Ares again limited withdrawals from its $23 billion Strategic Income Fund after redemption requests topped 14%, above the 5% quarterly cap. This shows retail investors pulling money out, which pressures Ares's fee income and signals stress in its fastest-growing retail channel.
Directly explains a key force pushing ARES down: retail redemption pressure forcing withdrawal caps.
Record $36B fundraising and 17% AUM growth Ares raised a record $36 billion in Q2, with assets under management up 17% to $671 billion and fee-related earnings up 20%. Strong institutional demand and $170 billion of dry powder support future fee growth, a clear positive for the stock.
Shows the core earnings engine still growing strongly, the main positive force for ARES.
Record 6% private credit default rate clouds resilient earnings Fitch reported a record 6.0% US private-credit default rate, even as Ares and Blue Owl posted solid results. Rising defaults raise concerns about credit quality and future fund performance, a real counterweight to Ares's strong fundraising and earnings.
Provides the key counterweight: credit deterioration that could offset Ares's growth story.
Revolut opens private market funds to retail investors Revolut now offers Ares private credit and equity funds to eligible European customers via ELTIF 2.0. This widens Ares's retail reach and could boost long-term fundraising, though it also adds exposure to retail redemption risk.
New distribution channel expands demand for Ares funds, a positive growth driver.