← Carabao overview

Carabao vs Aluminum (CME): why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Carabao Group Public Company Limited (CBG.BK)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

Carabao Group Rallies on Upgraded Target, Dividend, and Stimulus Hopes

  • Analyst Upgrade and Dividend Dao Securities raised its target price to 67 baht from 47 baht, citing sales recovery and margin expansion, sending shares up 5%. A 1.00 baht interim dividend was also declared.

    This directly boosted investor sentiment and the stock price during the quarter.

  • Stimulus and Retail Expansion Government stimulus extensions (Thai Chai Thai Plus, Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2) and retail expansion via CJ MORE (targeting 80bn baht sales in 2026 and an IPO by 2029) are expected to boost demand.

    These initiatives support sales growth and market expansion, key drivers for the company.

  • Weather and Economic Tailwinds A potential super El Niño could boost beverage demand, while Thailand's GDP beat expectations, providing a favorable economic backdrop for consumer spending.

    These external factors could increase demand for Carabao's products.

  • Profit Still Down Year-on-Year Despite a 13% earnings beat, Q2 core profit remained down 8% year-on-year, and much of the optimism relies on forecasts, weather, and stimulus that may not materialize.

    This is a key counterweight that could limit upside if trends don't improve.

September 2026
▲4

Thai stimulus extension and retail expansion drive CBG higher

  • CJ MORE retail expansion and IPO plan CBG's CJ MORE unit targets 80bn baht sales in 2026 and 100bn in 2027, adding 700 branches and planning an IPO by 2029. This expands CBG's retail network, boosting future revenue and profit, which supports a higher share price.

    This is a new, company-specific growth driver that directly affects CBG's earnings outlook.

  • Thai Chai Thai Plus stimulus extension The Cabinet extended the Thai Chai Thai Plus co-payment scheme by two months, boosting domestic consumption. CBG is named a top beneficiary due to its domestic revenue exposure, which should lift sales and support the stock.

    This is a new government stimulus that directly benefits CBG's domestic sales and was highlighted by analysts.

  • Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 injection The Finance Ministry extended the Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 program, injecting up to 7.1 billion baht into the economy. Analysts rate CBG Buy with a 67 baht target, citing its domestic revenue exposure as a key beneficiary.

    This is a new fiscal measure that boosts consumer spending and directly supports CBG's revenue and analyst ratings.

  • Krungsri bullish on beverage stocks, CBG standout Krungsri Securities is positive on beverage stocks, expecting CBG to show a standout Q3 2026 profit trend. The group's profit is forecast to rise, helped by hot weather and stable costs, which supports CBG's earnings and share price.

    This is a new analyst view highlighting CBG's strong profit trend within the beverage sector.

Latest
▲4

Thai stimulus extension and retail expansion drive CBG higher

  • CJ MORE retail expansion and IPO plan CBG's CJ MORE unit targets 80bn baht sales in 2026 and 100bn in 2027, adding 700 branches and planning an IPO by 2029. This expands CBG's retail network, boosting future revenue and profit, which supports a higher share price.

    This is a new, company-specific growth driver that directly affects CBG's earnings outlook.

  • Thai Chai Thai Plus stimulus extension The Cabinet extended the Thai Chai Thai Plus co-payment scheme by two months, boosting domestic consumption. CBG is named a top beneficiary due to its domestic revenue exposure, which should lift sales and support the stock.

    This is a new government stimulus that directly benefits CBG's domestic sales and was highlighted by analysts.

  • Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 injection The Finance Ministry extended the Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 program, injecting up to 7.1 billion baht into the economy. Analysts rate CBG Buy with a 67 baht target, citing its domestic revenue exposure as a key beneficiary.

    This is a new fiscal measure that boosts consumer spending and directly supports CBG's revenue and analyst ratings.

  • Krungsri bullish on beverage stocks, CBG standout Krungsri Securities is positive on beverage stocks, expecting CBG to show a standout Q3 2026 profit trend. The group's profit is forecast to rise, helped by hot weather and stable costs, which supports CBG's earnings and share price.

    This is a new analyst view highlighting CBG's strong profit trend within the beverage sector.

August 2026
▲4

CBG's Q2 profit beat, dividend, and broker upgrades drive positive outlook

  • Q2 profit beats expectations, dividend declared CBG's Q2 2026 core profit of 736 million baht beat expectations by 13%, despite an 8% year-on-year decline. The company declared a 1.00 baht interim dividend. This shows resilience and rewards shareholders, supporting the stock price.

    This is a new event that directly affects investor returns and sentiment.

  • Broker upgrades profit forecast and target price Dao Securities raised its 2026-2027 profit forecast and target price to 67 baht from 47 baht, citing sales recovery and margin expansion. The stock rose 5% on the news. This signals growing confidence in future earnings.

    This is a new analyst action that directly influences market expectations and price.

  • El Niño to boost beverage demand Brokers recommend accumulating beverage stocks ahead of a potentially super El Niño, which historically brings hotter weather and higher drink consumption. CBG is named as a beneficiary. This could lift sales volumes in coming months.

    This is a new demand-side catalyst that could drive future revenue growth.

  • GDP beat and consumption recovery support food & beverage Thailand's Q2 GDP grew 1.9%, beating forecasts. Yuanta expects consumption to recover in Q3, favoring food and beverage stocks including CBG. This macro backdrop supports higher sales ahead.

    This is a new macroeconomic development that improves the demand outlook for CBG.

▲4

CBG's Q2 profit beat, dividend, and broker upgrades drive positive outlook

  • Q2 profit beats expectations, dividend declared CBG's Q2 2026 core profit of 736 million baht beat expectations by 13%, despite an 8% year-on-year decline. The company declared a 1.00 baht interim dividend. This shows resilience and rewards shareholders, supporting the stock price.

    This is a new event that directly affects investor returns and sentiment.

  • Broker upgrades profit forecast and target price Dao Securities raised its 2026-2027 profit forecast and target price to 67 baht from 47 baht, citing sales recovery and margin expansion. The stock rose 5% on the news. This signals growing confidence in future earnings.

    This is a new analyst action that directly influences market expectations and price.

  • El Niño to boost beverage demand Brokers recommend accumulating beverage stocks ahead of a potentially super El Niño, which historically brings hotter weather and higher drink consumption. CBG is named as a beneficiary. This could lift sales volumes in coming months.

    This is a new demand-side catalyst that could drive future revenue growth.

  • GDP beat and consumption recovery support food & beverage Thailand's Q2 GDP grew 1.9%, beating forecasts. Yuanta expects consumption to recover in Q3, favoring food and beverage stocks including CBG. This macro backdrop supports higher sales ahead.

    This is a new macroeconomic development that improves the demand outlook for CBG.

Aluminum (CME) (ALUMINUM.COMM)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Aluminum Q3: tight supply vs. new capacity, tariffs add uncertainty

  • Strong electrification demand and record-low inventories Grid and electrification demand stayed strong, with Nexans and Hydro signing a low-carbon deal. LME inventories hit a century low of 271,275 tonnes, and institutions forecast widening deficits, supporting higher prices.

    This point explains the main bullish force: robust demand and critically low inventories.

  • Alunorte alumina output cut tightens supply Alunorte's alumina output was cut to 50%, further tightening the supply of raw material for aluminum. This reduction adds to the tight supply picture and supports higher aluminum prices.

    This point highlights a specific supply disruption that contributed to price support.

  • New supply and forecast cuts weigh on prices Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs cut 2027–28 price forecasts on new supply from Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, India, and Angola. Century's Mt. Holly expansion added ~10% US output, easing supply concerns.

    This point captures the main bearish force: expectations of rising future supply and analyst downgrades.

  • Tariff changes and trade tensions raise costs The US halved tariffs for smelter investors, but US-Canada trade tensions escalated with 50% tariffs and retaliation, raising costs and uncertainty. Mexico's tariff negotiations remained unresolved.

    This point explains how trade policy added cost pressure and uncertainty, a key negative factor.

September 2026
▲3

Tariff war and supply cuts drive aluminum prices

  • Alumina supply cut Alunorte, a major alumina refinery, cut output to 50% due to a natural gas shortage. Alumina is a key input for aluminum, so reduced supply could tighten the market and support higher aluminum prices.

    This is a new supply disruption that directly affects aluminum production costs and availability.

  • Australian government supports smelter Australia committed A$2.5 billion to keep Rio Tinto's Tomago smelter running beyond 2028. This ensures continued aluminum production, preventing a potential supply loss that could have pushed prices higher.

    This is a new government intervention that stabilizes supply, which is important for the aluminum market outlook.

  • US-Canada trade tensions escalate The US expanded 50% tariffs on Canadian aluminum and banned some imports, while Canada retaliated. This trade war raises costs and disrupts supply, but also creates uncertainty that can push prices up due to tightness.

    This is a major new escalation in trade policy that directly impacts aluminum flows and pricing.

  • Mexico seeks tariff relief Mexico is negotiating with the US to reduce or eliminate the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. If successful, it could ease trade tensions and support aluminum demand, but the outcome is still uncertain.

    This is a new development in tariff negotiations that could affect aluminum trade flows and prices.

Latest
▲3

Tariff war and supply cuts drive aluminum prices

  • Alumina supply cut Alunorte, a major alumina refinery, cut output to 50% due to a natural gas shortage. Alumina is a key input for aluminum, so reduced supply could tighten the market and support higher aluminum prices.

    This is a new supply disruption that directly affects aluminum production costs and availability.

  • Australian government supports smelter Australia committed A$2.5 billion to keep Rio Tinto's Tomago smelter running beyond 2028. This ensures continued aluminum production, preventing a potential supply loss that could have pushed prices higher.

    This is a new government intervention that stabilizes supply, which is important for the aluminum market outlook.

  • US-Canada trade tensions escalate The US expanded 50% tariffs on Canadian aluminum and banned some imports, while Canada retaliated. This trade war raises costs and disrupts supply, but also creates uncertainty that can push prices up due to tightness.

    This is a major new escalation in trade policy that directly impacts aluminum flows and pricing.

  • Mexico seeks tariff relief Mexico is negotiating with the US to reduce or eliminate the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. If successful, it could ease trade tensions and support aluminum demand, but the outcome is still uncertain.

    This is a new development in tariff negotiations that could affect aluminum trade flows and prices.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Aluminum: tight supply and strong demand, but new supply and tariff cuts weigh

  • Demand from grid and electrification stays strong Long-term demand from power grid and electrification projects remains solid, highlighted by Nexans and Hydro's five-year low-carbon aluminum deal. Chinese producers reported massive profit jumps, confirming robust current demand. This supports higher aluminum prices.

    Shows a key positive demand force behind aluminum prices in the period.

  • LME inventories hit century low, deficit forecast LME aluminum inventories fell to a century low of 271,275 tonnes—less than one day of global consumption. Institutions forecast a widening supply deficit. Very low stockpiles and expected shortages tend to push prices higher.

    Captures a major supply tightness signal that supported prices.

  • New global supply and forecast cuts pressure prices Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs cut 2027-28 aluminum price forecasts, citing new supply from Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, India, Angola, and recovering Middle East output. This expected extra supply weighs on future prices.

    Highlights a key bearish force from new supply and analyst downgrades.

  • US tariff cut and Century expansion boost supply The US halved aluminum import tariffs for companies investing in new smelters, and Century Aluminum's Mt. Holly expansion will boost US output by roughly 10%. Alcoa also lowered alumina output guidance due to operational issues. These add supply and pressure prices.

    Shows policy and expansion-driven supply increases that weighed on prices.

▲3▼1

Aluminum: record-low inventories and supply deficit drive prices higher

  • LME inventories hit century low London Metal Exchange aluminum stocks fell to 271,275 tonnes, the lowest this century and less than one day of global consumption. This extreme tightness makes the market vulnerable to any supply disruption and supports higher prices.

    This is a new, concrete supply-side factor that directly explains upward price pressure.

  • Institutions forecast widening supply deficit CMB International expects the global aluminum supply deficit to widen to 2% of demand in 2026, with prices up 15% year-on-year, due to Middle Eastern smelter disruptions. Soochow Securities sees a long-term bull case from capped Chinese capacity and steady demand growth.

    New analyst forecasts reinforce the supply-deficit narrative that is the main bullish driver.

  • Strong Chinese producer earnings confirm robust demand Yunnan Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, and Tianshan Aluminum all forecast large first-half profit jumps, with Yunnan's second-quarter profit hitting a record. This confirms strong demand and tight market conditions, supporting higher aluminum prices.

    New earnings reports from major producers show the market is tight and demand is solid.

  • US smelter expansion adds future supply Century Aluminum's Mt. Holly expansion will raise total US primary aluminum output by about 10%, with a $50 million investment. While gradual, this new supply could eventually weigh on prices, though it is small against global demand.

    This is a new supply-side development that acts as a counterweight to the bullish factors.

▲2▼2

US tariff cut and smelter expansions add supply; demand still strong

  • US tariff cut for new smelters adds future supply Trump halved the aluminum import tariff from 50% to 25% for companies that invest in new US smelters. This lowers costs and encourages more domestic production, which eventually adds supply and weighs on aluminum prices.

    This is a major new policy that directly affects aluminum supply and prices.

  • Century Aluminum expands Mt. Holly smelter Century Aluminum is expanding its Mt. Holly smelter, increasing US aluminum production capacity. More supply tends to push prices down, though the impact is gradual as new output comes online.

    This is a concrete new supply increase that affects the market balance.

  • Strong Chinese earnings confirm robust aluminum demand Chinese nonferrous metals companies reported a 161% jump in first-half profit, driven by rising aluminum prices. This shows demand is strong and supports higher aluminum prices.

    It provides fresh evidence of strong demand from the world's largest aluminum consumer.

  • Hydro's profit surge reflects higher aluminum prices Norsk Hydro's Q2 profit more than doubled, helped by higher aluminum prices and better recycling margins. This confirms that current market conditions are favorable for producers, supporting prices.

    It shows that aluminum prices are high enough to boost producer profits, reinforcing positive sentiment.

▲2▼1

Aluminum demand solid but new supply and bearish forecasts weigh on prices

  • Long-term demand from grid and electrification Nexans and Hydro signed a five-year deal for 85,000 tonnes of low-carbon aluminium wire rod, supporting Europe's grid buildout. This steady demand for power cables and transmission lines underpins aluminum prices over the long term.

    Shows a concrete new demand source that supports aluminum prices.

  • New global supply and bearish bank forecasts Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs cut aluminum price forecasts for 2027-28, citing new supply from Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, India, Angola, and recovering Middle East output. This expected surplus is the main force pushing prices down.

    Directly explains the biggest downward pressure on aluminum prices this period.

  • Strong Chinese producer profits signal tight market Hongqiao, Diantou Energy, and Yee Chiu Resources all forecast big profit jumps for the first half of 2026, driven by high aluminum prices and a temporary supply gap from Middle East conflicts. This confirms strong current market conditions.

    Shows that current aluminum prices are high enough to boost producer earnings, supporting the market.

  • Alcoa's record results and output cut Alcoa reported record quarterly revenue of $4 billion on higher aluminum prices, but lowered its 2026 alumina output guidance due to operational issues. The output cut reduces supply, which is positive, but the overall market still faces new global supply.

    Highlights a major producer's performance and a supply reduction that could support prices.

Q2 2026
▲3▼1

Aluminum's big picture: electrification demand up, supply recovering

  • Electrification and AI power demand boost aluminum Global electricity demand is growing faster than GDP for the first time, driven by AI data centers and EVs. This electrification is lifting demand for metals like aluminum, with prices already up 12% over the past year. More power infrastructure means more aluminum for cables and equipment, supporting higher prices.

    This is the main demand-side force pushing aluminum prices up, directly answering what's driving the commodity.

  • Novelis restarts production, easing auto supply crunch Novelis restarted its Oswego aluminum plant after fires disrupted supply to Ford and other automakers. This adds supply back to the market, which tends to push aluminum prices down. Ford expects to recover some lost earnings as production normalizes.

    This is a new supply increase that weighs on aluminum prices, providing a counterweight to demand-driven gains.

  • US domestic aluminum supply chain gets a boost Brimstone and Century Aluminum signed an MOU to create the first fully US mine-to-metal aluminum supply chain, reducing reliance on imports. Century also plans to double US primary aluminum capacity and restarted idle capacity. This supports long-term domestic supply but may not immediately lower prices.

    This is a new strategic development that could reshape supply dynamics and support prices by reducing import dependence.

  • Alcoa secures power for Lista smelter, ensuring production Alcoa signed power agreements with Statkraft to secure electricity for its Lista aluminum plant through 2031. This ensures continued production at the smelter, which recently restarted a potline adding 31,000 tonnes of capacity. Stable energy supply supports aluminum output, but the impact on prices is gradual.

    This is a new supply-side development that ensures production continuity, indirectly supporting prices by preventing disruptions.

June 2026
▲3▼1

Aluminum's big picture: electrification demand up, supply recovering

  • Electrification and AI power demand boost aluminum Global electricity demand is growing faster than GDP for the first time, driven by AI data centers and EVs. This electrification is lifting demand for metals like aluminum, with prices already up 12% over the past year. More power infrastructure means more aluminum for cables and equipment, supporting higher prices.

    This is the main demand-side force pushing aluminum prices up, directly answering what's driving the commodity.

  • Novelis restarts production, easing auto supply crunch Novelis restarted its Oswego aluminum plant after fires disrupted supply to Ford and other automakers. This adds supply back to the market, which tends to push aluminum prices down. Ford expects to recover some lost earnings as production normalizes.

    This is a new supply increase that weighs on aluminum prices, providing a counterweight to demand-driven gains.

  • US domestic aluminum supply chain gets a boost Brimstone and Century Aluminum signed an MOU to create the first fully US mine-to-metal aluminum supply chain, reducing reliance on imports. Century also plans to double US primary aluminum capacity and restarted idle capacity. This supports long-term domestic supply but may not immediately lower prices.

    This is a new strategic development that could reshape supply dynamics and support prices by reducing import dependence.

  • Alcoa secures power for Lista smelter, ensuring production Alcoa signed power agreements with Statkraft to secure electricity for its Lista aluminum plant through 2031. This ensures continued production at the smelter, which recently restarted a potline adding 31,000 tonnes of capacity. Stable energy supply supports aluminum output, but the impact on prices is gradual.

    This is a new supply-side development that ensures production continuity, indirectly supporting prices by preventing disruptions.

▲3▼1

Aluminum's big picture: electrification demand up, supply recovering

  • Electrification and AI power demand boost aluminum Global electricity demand is growing faster than GDP for the first time, driven by AI data centers and EVs. This electrification is lifting demand for metals like aluminum, with prices already up 12% over the past year. More power infrastructure means more aluminum for cables and equipment, supporting higher prices.

    This is the main demand-side force pushing aluminum prices up, directly answering what's driving the commodity.

  • Novelis restarts production, easing auto supply crunch Novelis restarted its Oswego aluminum plant after fires disrupted supply to Ford and other automakers. This adds supply back to the market, which tends to push aluminum prices down. Ford expects to recover some lost earnings as production normalizes.

    This is a new supply increase that weighs on aluminum prices, providing a counterweight to demand-driven gains.

  • US domestic aluminum supply chain gets a boost Brimstone and Century Aluminum signed an MOU to create the first fully US mine-to-metal aluminum supply chain, reducing reliance on imports. Century also plans to double US primary aluminum capacity and restarted idle capacity. This supports long-term domestic supply but may not immediately lower prices.

    This is a new strategic development that could reshape supply dynamics and support prices by reducing import dependence.

  • Alcoa secures power for Lista smelter, ensuring production Alcoa signed power agreements with Statkraft to secure electricity for its Lista aluminum plant through 2031. This ensures continued production at the smelter, which recently restarted a potline adding 31,000 tonnes of capacity. Stable energy supply supports aluminum output, but the impact on prices is gradual.

    This is a new supply-side development that ensures production continuity, indirectly supporting prices by preventing disruptions.

© 2026 MarketIVWhy