← Cleveland-Cliffs overview

Cleveland-Cliffs vs Nucor: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)

Q3 2026
▲2▼1

Cliffs' earnings surge and defense deal offset by downgrade and tariff risks

  • Earnings surge and strong guidance Cleveland-Cliffs' Q2 adjusted EBITDA tripled to $286 million, and Q3 guidance doubled to about $575 million, driven by solid domestic demand and subdued imports. Shares jumped 16% on the news.

    This is the main positive force behind the stock's move this quarter.

  • Defense contract and plant upgrade Cliffs won a five-year U.S. Defense contract worth up to $400 million for electrical steel and announced a $1 billion upgrade at its Middletown Works, half-funded by a DOE grant, extending the blast furnace's life and cutting costs.

    These new deals support future revenue and efficiency, boosting investor confidence.

  • Analyst downgrade on peak steel rally Morgan Stanley downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the steel rally is peaking and largely priced in. This suggests limited upside ahead and weighed on sentiment.

    This is a key negative factor that tempered the stock's gains.

  • Mixed tariff impact from U.S.-Canada framework A tentative U.S.-Canada framework halving tariffs to 25% could pressure U.S. steel prices, but may benefit Cliffs' Stelco operations. The net effect on Cliffs remains uncertain.

    This policy change creates both risks and opportunities, making the overall impact mixed.

July 2026
▲1▼1

Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

  • Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.

    A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.

    A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.

  • U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.

    A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

Latest
▲1▼1

Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

  • Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.

    A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.

    A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.

  • U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.

    A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

August 2026
▲2▼1

Cliffs' profit surge, $1B Ohio upgrade, and lower Canada tariffs

  • Q2 profit tripled, Q3 guidance doubled Cliffs' second-quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter to $286 million, and management expects it to roughly double again to about $575 million in the third quarter. Strong domestic steel demand and subdued imports are driving the improvement, which is why the stock jumped 16%.

    This is the core earnings turnaround that explains why CLF moved sharply higher this period.

  • US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel A tentative US-Canada trade framework would cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with possible quotas. That means more Canadian steel can enter the US at lower cost, pressuring prices for US producers. CLF and peers fell up to 7.5% on the news.

    This is the main new headwind that pushed CLF shares down during the period.

  • $1B Middletown upgrade with $500M DOE grant Cliffs will spend $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works in Ohio, half-funded by a US Department of Energy grant. The project extends the blast furnace's life and cuts costs, keeping it competitive in automotive steel. Shares rose 7% on the news.

    This is a major new capital investment that improves CLF's long-term cost position and lifted the stock.

  • Lower Canada tariffs also help Stelco The same tentative US-Canada deal that pressures US steel prices could benefit Cliffs' Canadian Stelco operations by reducing tariffs on its exports. This partly offsets the negative impact on Cliffs' US mills, making the overall tariff effect mixed rather than purely negative.

    It shows a real counterweight to the tariff headwind, giving a fair picture of the net impact on CLF.

▲2▼1

Cliffs' profit surge, $1B Ohio upgrade, and lower Canada tariffs

  • Q2 profit tripled, Q3 guidance doubled Cliffs' second-quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter to $286 million, and management expects it to roughly double again to about $575 million in the third quarter. Strong domestic steel demand and subdued imports are driving the improvement, which is why the stock jumped 16%.

    This is the core earnings turnaround that explains why CLF moved sharply higher this period.

  • US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel A tentative US-Canada trade framework would cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with possible quotas. That means more Canadian steel can enter the US at lower cost, pressuring prices for US producers. CLF and peers fell up to 7.5% on the news.

    This is the main new headwind that pushed CLF shares down during the period.

  • $1B Middletown upgrade with $500M DOE grant Cliffs will spend $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works in Ohio, half-funded by a US Department of Energy grant. The project extends the blast furnace's life and cuts costs, keeping it competitive in automotive steel. Shares rose 7% on the news.

    This is a major new capital investment that improves CLF's long-term cost position and lifted the stock.

  • Lower Canada tariffs also help Stelco The same tentative US-Canada deal that pressures US steel prices could benefit Cliffs' Canadian Stelco operations by reducing tariffs on its exports. This partly offsets the negative impact on Cliffs' US mills, making the overall tariff effect mixed rather than purely negative.

    It shows a real counterweight to the tariff headwind, giving a fair picture of the net impact on CLF.

Nucor Corp (NUE)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Nucor's Profit Doubles but Guidance Misses, Tariff Risks Mount

  • Q2 Profit Nearly Doubles on Record Shipments Nucor's Q2 profit jumped to $1.156 billion, with revenue up 23% and record shipments of 7.1 million tons. Strong pricing and volumes drove the gains, showing robust demand for its steel.

    This is the core positive event that drove Nucor's financial performance in the period.

  • Tariff Enforcement and New Tariffs Support Pricing Aggressive enforcement of Section 232 tariffs cut finished steel imports from 23% to 16%, and a new 25% tariff on Brazilian steel further reduced foreign competition. This helped keep domestic steel prices high.

    Tariff actions directly influenced Nucor's pricing power and competitive position.

  • Q3 Guidance Misses Expectations, Shares Fall Nucor guided Q3 earnings to $5.55–$5.65 per share, below the $6.00–$6.20 consensus. The miss sent shares down over 3%, signaling that profit growth may be slowing.

    This was a key negative event that directly impacted investor sentiment and the stock price.

  • Berkshire Hathaway Halves Stake and Canada Tariffs Hit Berkshire Hathaway cut its Nucor stake in half, and Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15%–50% on U.S. steel exports. These developments raised concerns about demand and investor confidence.

    These events added significant negative pressure on Nucor's stock and outlook.

September 2026
▼2

Nucor's Q3 Profit Miss Overshadows Tariff Gains

  • Q3 guidance falls short of Wall Street Nucor said Q3 profit will be $5.55-$5.65 a share, below the roughly $6.00-$6.20 analysts expected. Higher product costs and weaker raw materials results offset firm steel prices. The stock fell over 3% after hours, as investors worry near-term earnings are less strong than hoped.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly explains why NUE moved down.

  • Canada's retaliatory tariffs hit U.S. steel exports Canada's counter-tariffs took effect September 8, putting 15%-50% duties on about C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods, including steel. That makes Nucor's exports to Canada more expensive and can reduce sales there, a direct drag on results.

    A new trade action that directly affects Nucor's export demand and pricing.

  • Long-term growth plans carry execution risk Nucor's own plan targets $40.5 billion revenue and $4.5 billion earnings by 2029, but that requires big capacity investments to pay off. The Q3 miss sharpens focus on whether demand and pricing can support those projects, a risk that could cap the stock.

    Adds the real counterweight: future growth depends on execution and demand holding up.

Latest
▼2

Nucor's Q3 Profit Miss Overshadows Tariff Gains

  • Q3 guidance falls short of Wall Street Nucor said Q3 profit will be $5.55-$5.65 a share, below the roughly $6.00-$6.20 analysts expected. Higher product costs and weaker raw materials results offset firm steel prices. The stock fell over 3% after hours, as investors worry near-term earnings are less strong than hoped.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly explains why NUE moved down.

  • Canada's retaliatory tariffs hit U.S. steel exports Canada's counter-tariffs took effect September 8, putting 15%-50% duties on about C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods, including steel. That makes Nucor's exports to Canada more expensive and can reduce sales there, a direct drag on results.

    A new trade action that directly affects Nucor's export demand and pricing.

  • Long-term growth plans carry execution risk Nucor's own plan targets $40.5 billion revenue and $4.5 billion earnings by 2029, but that requires big capacity investments to pay off. The Q3 miss sharpens focus on whether demand and pricing can support those projects, a risk that could cap the stock.

    Adds the real counterweight: future growth depends on execution and demand holding up.

August 2026
▼3▲1

Tariff Rollercoaster and Berkshire Cut Pressure Nucor

  • Berkshire halves Nucor stake Berkshire Hathaway roughly halved its Nucor stake in Q2, a negative signal from a famous value investor. It may pressure the stock as some investors follow Berkshire's moves, though it doesn't change Nucor's actual business.

    This is a new, high-impact capital event that can weigh on NUE's price.

  • US-Canada tariff cut plan hits steel stocks A tentative US-Canada deal would halve tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, increasing import competition. Nucor and peers fell 2.6% to 7.5% on the news, as lower tariffs mean foreign steel can undercut domestic prices.

    This new tariff development directly threatens Nucor's pricing power and stock.

  • US-Canada talks collapse, 50% tariffs back on Trade talks between the US and Canada collapsed, paving the way for 50% tariffs on Canadian imports. US steel stocks rose, with analysts saying Nucor stands to benefit most, as higher tariffs keep cheaper Canadian steel out.

    This new reversal restores tariff protection, a positive for Nucor's pricing and sales.

  • Nucor shares fall 6.8% since earnings beat Despite a Q2 earnings beat, Nucor shares have dropped 6.8%, underperforming the S&P 500. The market may be looking past strong results to worries about future tariffs and demand, showing that good news alone isn't lifting the stock.

    This new article highlights the stock's recent weakness and investor concerns.

▼3▲1

Tariff Rollercoaster and Berkshire Cut Pressure Nucor

  • Berkshire halves Nucor stake Berkshire Hathaway roughly halved its Nucor stake in Q2, a negative signal from a famous value investor. It may pressure the stock as some investors follow Berkshire's moves, though it doesn't change Nucor's actual business.

    This is a new, high-impact capital event that can weigh on NUE's price.

  • US-Canada tariff cut plan hits steel stocks A tentative US-Canada deal would halve tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, increasing import competition. Nucor and peers fell 2.6% to 7.5% on the news, as lower tariffs mean foreign steel can undercut domestic prices.

    This new tariff development directly threatens Nucor's pricing power and stock.

  • US-Canada talks collapse, 50% tariffs back on Trade talks between the US and Canada collapsed, paving the way for 50% tariffs on Canadian imports. US steel stocks rose, with analysts saying Nucor stands to benefit most, as higher tariffs keep cheaper Canadian steel out.

    This new reversal restores tariff protection, a positive for Nucor's pricing and sales.

  • Nucor shares fall 6.8% since earnings beat Despite a Q2 earnings beat, Nucor shares have dropped 6.8%, underperforming the S&P 500. The market may be looking past strong results to worries about future tariffs and demand, showing that good news alone isn't lifting the stock.

    This new article highlights the stock's recent weakness and investor concerns.

July 2026
▲4

Nucor's Profit Nearly Doubles as Tariffs Curb Steel Imports

  • Q2 profit nearly doubles, revenue up 23% Nucor earned $1.156 billion ($5.04/share) in Q2, up from $603 million a year ago, with revenue up 23% to $10.4 billion. Record steel shipments of 7.1 million tons and higher selling prices show the core business is strong, supporting the stock.

    The earnings beat is the main new fundamental driver of NUE's price this period.

  • CEO credits Trump tariffs for strong quarter CEO Topalian said aggressive enforcement of Section 232 tariffs is cutting unfairly traded imports, helping Nucor. Finished steel import share fell from 23% to 16%, leaving more room for domestic producers. This policy support is a key reason profits jumped.

    Tariff enforcement is the central force behind Nucor's profit surge and stock rally.

  • New 25% tariff on Brazilian steel imports The U.S. imposed a 25% Section 301 tariff on many Brazilian goods, including steel. This makes foreign steel costlier, so buyers may shift to Nucor's domestic product. It adds to existing tariffs that already protect U.S. steelmakers.

    A fresh tariff action directly reduces import competition for Nucor.

  • JFE partnership targets high-grade steel demand JFE Holdings said its U.S. joint ventures with Nucor focus on high-grade steel like electrical and automotive sheets. JFE sees motorization and electrification as growth drivers. This signals steady demand for Nucor's more profitable specialty products.

    It shows a partner expects strong demand in Nucor's high-value product lines.

▲4

Nucor's Profit Nearly Doubles as Tariffs Curb Steel Imports

  • Q2 profit nearly doubles, revenue up 23% Nucor earned $1.156 billion ($5.04/share) in Q2, up from $603 million a year ago, with revenue up 23% to $10.4 billion. Record steel shipments of 7.1 million tons and higher selling prices show the core business is strong, supporting the stock.

    The earnings beat is the main new fundamental driver of NUE's price this period.

  • CEO credits Trump tariffs for strong quarter CEO Topalian said aggressive enforcement of Section 232 tariffs is cutting unfairly traded imports, helping Nucor. Finished steel import share fell from 23% to 16%, leaving more room for domestic producers. This policy support is a key reason profits jumped.

    Tariff enforcement is the central force behind Nucor's profit surge and stock rally.

  • New 25% tariff on Brazilian steel imports The U.S. imposed a 25% Section 301 tariff on many Brazilian goods, including steel. This makes foreign steel costlier, so buyers may shift to Nucor's domestic product. It adds to existing tariffs that already protect U.S. steelmakers.

    A fresh tariff action directly reduces import competition for Nucor.

  • JFE partnership targets high-grade steel demand JFE Holdings said its U.S. joint ventures with Nucor focus on high-grade steel like electrical and automotive sheets. JFE sees motorization and electrification as growth drivers. This signals steady demand for Nucor's more profitable specialty products.

    It shows a partner expects strong demand in Nucor's high-value product lines.

Q2 2026
▲3

Nucor's Profit Outlook Jumps on Higher Steel Prices and Solid Demand

  • Q2 Earnings Guidance Beats Expectations Nucor expects Q2 earnings of $4.70–$4.80 per share, well above the $4.21 consensus and last year's $2.60. Higher steel prices, steady sales volumes, and $130 million in raw material refunds are driving the increase, signaling strong profitability ahead.

    This is the main new event that directly boosts investor confidence in Nucor's near-term profits.

  • Steel Prices Surge Above $1,100 per Ton Hot-rolled coil steel prices have climbed above $1,100 per ton, helped by tight supply, fewer imports due to tariffs, and firm demand. As a major producer, Nucor earns more per ton sold, which lifts its revenue and margins.

    Higher steel prices are a key force behind Nucor's improved earnings and stock performance.

  • Strong Demand from Construction, Infrastructure, and AI Data Centers Nucor benefits from healthy demand in non-residential construction, infrastructure, military, and energy. AI data centers are a new source of steel demand, with 831 projects under construction globally. This supports sales volumes and pricing.

    Demand strength is a fundamental driver of Nucor's revenue and earnings growth.

  • Analyst Warns Steel Rally May Be Peaking Morgan Stanley kept Nucor at Equal-weight, saying the steel price rally is near its peak and prices could fall in 2027–2028 as new supply and imports rise. This is a caution that future gains may be limited, even as current profits stay strong.

    It provides a balanced view, highlighting a potential headwind that could cap Nucor's stock upside.

June 2026
▲3

Nucor's Profit Outlook Jumps on Higher Steel Prices and Solid Demand

  • Q2 Earnings Guidance Beats Expectations Nucor expects Q2 earnings of $4.70–$4.80 per share, well above the $4.21 consensus and last year's $2.60. Higher steel prices, steady sales volumes, and $130 million in raw material refunds are driving the increase, signaling strong profitability ahead.

    This is the main new event that directly boosts investor confidence in Nucor's near-term profits.

  • Steel Prices Surge Above $1,100 per Ton Hot-rolled coil steel prices have climbed above $1,100 per ton, helped by tight supply, fewer imports due to tariffs, and firm demand. As a major producer, Nucor earns more per ton sold, which lifts its revenue and margins.

    Higher steel prices are a key force behind Nucor's improved earnings and stock performance.

  • Strong Demand from Construction, Infrastructure, and AI Data Centers Nucor benefits from healthy demand in non-residential construction, infrastructure, military, and energy. AI data centers are a new source of steel demand, with 831 projects under construction globally. This supports sales volumes and pricing.

    Demand strength is a fundamental driver of Nucor's revenue and earnings growth.

  • Analyst Warns Steel Rally May Be Peaking Morgan Stanley kept Nucor at Equal-weight, saying the steel price rally is near its peak and prices could fall in 2027–2028 as new supply and imports rise. This is a caution that future gains may be limited, even as current profits stay strong.

    It provides a balanced view, highlighting a potential headwind that could cap Nucor's stock upside.

▲3

Nucor's Profit Outlook Jumps on Higher Steel Prices and Solid Demand

  • Q2 Earnings Guidance Beats Expectations Nucor expects Q2 earnings of $4.70–$4.80 per share, well above the $4.21 consensus and last year's $2.60. Higher steel prices, steady sales volumes, and $130 million in raw material refunds are driving the increase, signaling strong profitability ahead.

    This is the main new event that directly boosts investor confidence in Nucor's near-term profits.

  • Steel Prices Surge Above $1,100 per Ton Hot-rolled coil steel prices have climbed above $1,100 per ton, helped by tight supply, fewer imports due to tariffs, and firm demand. As a major producer, Nucor earns more per ton sold, which lifts its revenue and margins.

    Higher steel prices are a key force behind Nucor's improved earnings and stock performance.

  • Strong Demand from Construction, Infrastructure, and AI Data Centers Nucor benefits from healthy demand in non-residential construction, infrastructure, military, and energy. AI data centers are a new source of steel demand, with 831 projects under construction globally. This supports sales volumes and pricing.

    Demand strength is a fundamental driver of Nucor's revenue and earnings growth.

  • Analyst Warns Steel Rally May Be Peaking Morgan Stanley kept Nucor at Equal-weight, saying the steel price rally is near its peak and prices could fall in 2027–2028 as new supply and imports rise. This is a caution that future gains may be limited, even as current profits stay strong.

    It provides a balanced view, highlighting a potential headwind that could cap Nucor's stock upside.

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