Cleveland-Cliffs vs US HRC Steel: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)

Q3 202622 Jun – 31 Aug 2026

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Cliffs' earnings surge and defense deal offset by downgrade and tariff risks

Earnings surge and strong guidance Cleveland-Cliffs' Q2 adjusted EBITDA tripled to $286 million, and Q3 guidance doubled to about $575 million, driven by solid domestic demand and subdued imports. Shares jumped 16% on the news.
This is the main positive force behind the stock's move this quarter.
Defense contract and plant upgrade Cliffs won a five-year U.S. Defense contract worth up to $400 million for electrical steel and announced a $1 billion upgrade at its Middletown Works, half-funded by a DOE grant, extending the blast furnace's life and cutting costs.
These new deals support future revenue and efficiency, boosting investor confidence.
Analyst downgrade on peak steel rally Morgan Stanley downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the steel rally is peaking and largely priced in. This suggests limited upside ahead and weighed on sentiment.
This is a key negative factor that tempered the stock's gains.
Mixed tariff impact from U.S.-Canada framework A tentative U.S.-Canada framework halving tariffs to 25% could pressure U.S. steel prices, but may benefit Cliffs' Stelco operations. The net effect on Cliffs remains uncertain.
This policy change creates both risks and opportunities, making the overall impact mixed.

July 202622 Jun – 31 Aug 2026

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Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.
A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.
Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.
A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.
U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.
A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

Latest22 Jun – 31 Aug 2026

▲1▼1

Cliffs wins defense deal, advances $1B Ohio upgrade as tariff war swings steel

Cliffs wins $400M U.S. Defense electrical steel contract Cliffs secured a five-year, up-to-$400 million contract to supply grain-oriented electrical steel to all U.S. military branches. This locks in steady, high-value demand for a specialized product, supporting revenue and helping the stock.
A new, concrete order win that adds durable demand and is not in earlier reports.
Morgan Stanley downgrades CLF, says steel rally near peak Morgan Stanley cut Cliffs to Equal-weight, arguing the supply-driven steel price rally is peaking and much of the benefit is already priced in. It raised its target to $12.50 but sees limited upside, a caution for the stock.
A new analyst downgrade that directly questions how much more the stock can gain.
U.S.-Canada trade war swings steel stocks Trade talks collapsed, setting up 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and counter-tariffs. Cliffs' electric-arc furnaces avoid Canadian ore, so it could gain from higher prices, but its stock is still down for 2026 on balance-sheet stress.
A new escalation in tariffs that changes the competitive landscape and carries both upside and risk.

August 202623 Jul – 21 Aug 2026

▲2▼1

Cliffs' profit surge, $1B Ohio upgrade, and lower Canada tariffs

Q2 profit tripled, Q3 guidance doubled Cliffs' second-quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter to $286 million, and management expects it to roughly double again to about $575 million in the third quarter. Strong domestic steel demand and subdued imports are driving the improvement, which is why the stock jumped 16%.
This is the core earnings turnaround that explains why CLF moved sharply higher this period.
US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel A tentative US-Canada trade framework would cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with possible quotas. That means more Canadian steel can enter the US at lower cost, pressuring prices for US producers. CLF and peers fell up to 7.5% on the news.
This is the main new headwind that pushed CLF shares down during the period.
$1B Middletown upgrade with $500M DOE grant Cliffs will spend $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works in Ohio, half-funded by a US Department of Energy grant. The project extends the blast furnace's life and cuts costs, keeping it competitive in automotive steel. Shares rose 7% on the news.
This is a major new capital investment that improves CLF's long-term cost position and lifted the stock.
Lower Canada tariffs also help Stelco The same tentative US-Canada deal that pressures US steel prices could benefit Cliffs' Canadian Stelco operations by reducing tariffs on its exports. This partly offsets the negative impact on Cliffs' US mills, making the overall tariff effect mixed rather than purely negative.
It shows a real counterweight to the tariff headwind, giving a fair picture of the net impact on CLF.

23 Jul – 21 Aug 2026

▲2▼1

Cliffs' profit surge, $1B Ohio upgrade, and lower Canada tariffs

Q2 profit tripled, Q3 guidance doubled Cliffs' second-quarter adjusted EBITDA tripled from the first quarter to $286 million, and management expects it to roughly double again to about $575 million in the third quarter. Strong domestic steel demand and subdued imports are driving the improvement, which is why the stock jumped 16%.
This is the core earnings turnaround that explains why CLF moved sharply higher this period.
US to halve tariffs on Canadian steel A tentative US-Canada trade framework would cut tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with possible quotas. That means more Canadian steel can enter the US at lower cost, pressuring prices for US producers. CLF and peers fell up to 7.5% on the news.
This is the main new headwind that pushed CLF shares down during the period.
$1B Middletown upgrade with $500M DOE grant Cliffs will spend $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works in Ohio, half-funded by a US Department of Energy grant. The project extends the blast furnace's life and cuts costs, keeping it competitive in automotive steel. Shares rose 7% on the news.
This is a major new capital investment that improves CLF's long-term cost position and lifted the stock.
Lower Canada tariffs also help Stelco The same tentative US-Canada deal that pressures US steel prices could benefit Cliffs' Canadian Stelco operations by reducing tariffs on its exports. This partly offsets the negative impact on Cliffs' US mills, making the overall tariff effect mixed rather than purely negative.
It shows a real counterweight to the tariff headwind, giving a fair picture of the net impact on CLF.

US HRC Steel (STEEL.COMM)

Q3 202624 Jun – 10 Sep 2026

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AI and reshoring demand support steel, but Chinese oversupply caps gains

AI infrastructure drives steel demand AI data centers need heavy structural steel for server racks, floors, and cooling. With 831 projects under construction globally, this new demand supports US HRC prices, especially for modern electric-arc producers like Nucor and Steel Dynamics.
This is a major new source of demand that lifts steel prices.
Capital shifts to real economy, boosting steel A strategist says US capitalism is moving from buybacks to building real assets like steel, copper, and power. This reshoring and supply-chain trend means more investment in steel capacity and higher demand for US HRC.
It signals a broad shift that increases steel demand and investment.
USMCA talks create tariff uncertainty US and Mexico will hold a fourth round of USMCA talks in September. Progress on steel trade is positive, but unresolved issues like Section 232 tariffs (50% on steel) and US content rules keep uncertainty high, which can sway steel prices both ways.
Trade policy directly affects steel flows and prices, and the outcome is unclear.
Chinese oversupply weighs on steel prices Thailand's construction material index shows steel prices fell 0.6% in August due to excess Chinese supply. This global glut, with projected excess capacity of 745 million tons by 2028, pressures US HRC prices by keeping a lid on global benchmarks.
It is a key counterweight that limits price gains from demand.

August 202624 Jun – 10 Sep 2026

▲2▼1

AI and reshoring demand support steel, but Chinese oversupply caps gains

AI infrastructure drives steel demand AI data centers need heavy structural steel for server racks, floors, and cooling. With 831 projects under construction globally, this new demand supports US HRC prices, especially for modern electric-arc producers like Nucor and Steel Dynamics.
This is a major new source of demand that lifts steel prices.
Capital shifts to real economy, boosting steel A strategist says US capitalism is moving from buybacks to building real assets like steel, copper, and power. This reshoring and supply-chain trend means more investment in steel capacity and higher demand for US HRC.
It signals a broad shift that increases steel demand and investment.
USMCA talks create tariff uncertainty US and Mexico will hold a fourth round of USMCA talks in September. Progress on steel trade is positive, but unresolved issues like Section 232 tariffs (50% on steel) and US content rules keep uncertainty high, which can sway steel prices both ways.
Trade policy directly affects steel flows and prices, and the outcome is unclear.
Chinese oversupply weighs on steel prices Thailand's construction material index shows steel prices fell 0.6% in August due to excess Chinese supply. This global glut, with projected excess capacity of 745 million tons by 2028, pressures US HRC prices by keeping a lid on global benchmarks.
It is a key counterweight that limits price gains from demand.

Latest24 Jun – 10 Sep 2026

▲2▼1

AI and reshoring demand support steel, but Chinese oversupply caps gains

AI infrastructure drives steel demand AI data centers need heavy structural steel for server racks, floors, and cooling. With 831 projects under construction globally, this new demand supports US HRC prices, especially for modern electric-arc producers like Nucor and Steel Dynamics.
This is a major new source of demand that lifts steel prices.
Capital shifts to real economy, boosting steel A strategist says US capitalism is moving from buybacks to building real assets like steel, copper, and power. This reshoring and supply-chain trend means more investment in steel capacity and higher demand for US HRC.
It signals a broad shift that increases steel demand and investment.
USMCA talks create tariff uncertainty US and Mexico will hold a fourth round of USMCA talks in September. Progress on steel trade is positive, but unresolved issues like Section 232 tariffs (50% on steel) and US content rules keep uncertainty high, which can sway steel prices both ways.
Trade policy directly affects steel flows and prices, and the outcome is unclear.
Chinese oversupply weighs on steel prices Thailand's construction material index shows steel prices fell 0.6% in August due to excess Chinese supply. This global glut, with projected excess capacity of 745 million tons by 2028, pressures US HRC prices by keeping a lid on global benchmarks.
It is a key counterweight that limits price gains from demand.