Coffee Futures vs Cocoa Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Coffee Futures (COFFEE.COMM)

Q3 202624 Jun – 24 Jul 2026

▲3▼1

Weather delays and tariff relief support coffee, but record crop forecast weighs

Brazil harvest delays and tight inventories Heavy rains in Brazil slowed the harvest and hurt crop quality, while ICE arabica stocks fell to a 2.5-year low. This tightens near-term supply and pushes coffee prices up.
Explains the main bullish supply shock that drove prices higher in late June.
Record global production forecast The USDA now expects a record 189.7 million bag global coffee crop in 2026-27, up 6% from last year, with Brazil's arabica output up 12%. This larger supply outlook pressures prices down.
This is the key bearish fundamental that caused the sharp sell-off in late July.
Brazilian coffee exempt from new US tariffs Brazil said coffee is among 2,000 exports spared from new US forced-labor tariffs. This avoids a supply disruption to the US, easing fears and helping prices rebound.
This new tariff news directly reversed some of the recent price decline.
Potential US sanctions on Nicaragua The US may impose trade measures on Nicaragua, a major coffee exporter, which could tighten already tight US supplies. This risk supports higher coffee prices.
A new geopolitical risk that could further constrain supply to the US.

July 202624 Jun – 24 Jul 2026

▲3▼1

Weather delays and tariff relief support coffee, but record crop forecast weighs

Brazil harvest delays and tight inventories Heavy rains in Brazil slowed the harvest and hurt crop quality, while ICE arabica stocks fell to a 2.5-year low. This tightens near-term supply and pushes coffee prices up.
Explains the main bullish supply shock that drove prices higher in late June.
Record global production forecast The USDA now expects a record 189.7 million bag global coffee crop in 2026-27, up 6% from last year, with Brazil's arabica output up 12%. This larger supply outlook pressures prices down.
This is the key bearish fundamental that caused the sharp sell-off in late July.
Brazilian coffee exempt from new US tariffs Brazil said coffee is among 2,000 exports spared from new US forced-labor tariffs. This avoids a supply disruption to the US, easing fears and helping prices rebound.
This new tariff news directly reversed some of the recent price decline.
Potential US sanctions on Nicaragua The US may impose trade measures on Nicaragua, a major coffee exporter, which could tighten already tight US supplies. This risk supports higher coffee prices.
A new geopolitical risk that could further constrain supply to the US.

Latest24 Jun – 24 Jul 2026

▲3▼1

Weather delays and tariff relief support coffee, but record crop forecast weighs

Brazil harvest delays and tight inventories Heavy rains in Brazil slowed the harvest and hurt crop quality, while ICE arabica stocks fell to a 2.5-year low. This tightens near-term supply and pushes coffee prices up.
Explains the main bullish supply shock that drove prices higher in late June.
Record global production forecast The USDA now expects a record 189.7 million bag global coffee crop in 2026-27, up 6% from last year, with Brazil's arabica output up 12%. This larger supply outlook pressures prices down.
This is the key bearish fundamental that caused the sharp sell-off in late July.
Brazilian coffee exempt from new US tariffs Brazil said coffee is among 2,000 exports spared from new US forced-labor tariffs. This avoids a supply disruption to the US, easing fears and helping prices rebound.
This new tariff news directly reversed some of the recent price decline.
Potential US sanctions on Nicaragua The US may impose trade measures on Nicaragua, a major coffee exporter, which could tighten already tight US supplies. This risk supports higher coffee prices.
A new geopolitical risk that could further constrain supply to the US.

Cocoa Futures (COCOA.COMM)

Q3 202617 Jun – 16 Jul 2026

▲2▼2

Cocoa swings on West African weather and weak demand

El Niño and heavy rains threaten West African crop El Niño was confirmed, and heavy June rains flooded farms and roads in Ivory Coast and Ghana, raising disease risk and cutting yields. Early surveys show below-average cherelle formation, pointing to a smaller 2026/27 main crop. This tightens future supply and pushes cocoa prices up.
This is the main new bullish force this period, directly threatening supply and lifting prices.
European cocoa demand slumps European second-quarter cocoa grindings fell 4.6%, the lowest for a second quarter in six years, showing weak chocolate demand. This is a big drop that signals consumers are buying less, so demand for cocoa beans falls and prices drop.
This is the latest major bearish demand shock that sent prices down sharply.
Abundant current supply and high inventories Ivory Coast port arrivals are up about 20% this season, ICE inventories are near a 1.75-year high, and Nigerian June exports jumped 30%. This ample supply weighs on prices, even as future crop worries persist.
This is the key counterweight keeping a lid on prices despite weather threats.
Funds' record short position could fuel rally Funds held their largest net-short position in New York cocoa in over three years. If prices start rising, these funds may rush to buy back contracts, creating a short-covering rally that pushes prices higher quickly.
This explains a potential upside trigger from market positioning, adding to the bullish case.

July 202617 Jun – 16 Jul 2026

▲2▼2

Cocoa swings on West African weather and weak demand

El Niño and heavy rains threaten West African crop El Niño was confirmed, and heavy June rains flooded farms and roads in Ivory Coast and Ghana, raising disease risk and cutting yields. Early surveys show below-average cherelle formation, pointing to a smaller 2026/27 main crop. This tightens future supply and pushes cocoa prices up.
This is the main new bullish force this period, directly threatening supply and lifting prices.
European cocoa demand slumps European second-quarter cocoa grindings fell 4.6%, the lowest for a second quarter in six years, showing weak chocolate demand. This is a big drop that signals consumers are buying less, so demand for cocoa beans falls and prices drop.
This is the latest major bearish demand shock that sent prices down sharply.
Abundant current supply and high inventories Ivory Coast port arrivals are up about 20% this season, ICE inventories are near a 1.75-year high, and Nigerian June exports jumped 30%. This ample supply weighs on prices, even as future crop worries persist.
This is the key counterweight keeping a lid on prices despite weather threats.
Funds' record short position could fuel rally Funds held their largest net-short position in New York cocoa in over three years. If prices start rising, these funds may rush to buy back contracts, creating a short-covering rally that pushes prices higher quickly.
This explains a potential upside trigger from market positioning, adding to the bullish case.

Latest17 Jun – 16 Jul 2026

▲2▼2

Cocoa swings on West African weather and weak demand

El Niño and heavy rains threaten West African crop El Niño was confirmed, and heavy June rains flooded farms and roads in Ivory Coast and Ghana, raising disease risk and cutting yields. Early surveys show below-average cherelle formation, pointing to a smaller 2026/27 main crop. This tightens future supply and pushes cocoa prices up.
This is the main new bullish force this period, directly threatening supply and lifting prices.
European cocoa demand slumps European second-quarter cocoa grindings fell 4.6%, the lowest for a second quarter in six years, showing weak chocolate demand. This is a big drop that signals consumers are buying less, so demand for cocoa beans falls and prices drop.
This is the latest major bearish demand shock that sent prices down sharply.
Abundant current supply and high inventories Ivory Coast port arrivals are up about 20% this season, ICE inventories are near a 1.75-year high, and Nigerian June exports jumped 30%. This ample supply weighs on prices, even as future crop worries persist.
This is the key counterweight keeping a lid on prices despite weather threats.
Funds' record short position could fuel rally Funds held their largest net-short position in New York cocoa in over three years. If prices start rising, these funds may rush to buy back contracts, creating a short-covering rally that pushes prices higher quickly.
This explains a potential upside trigger from market positioning, adding to the bullish case.