← Honeywell Aerospace overview

Honeywell Aerospace vs Thai Airways International: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Honeywell Aerospace Inc (HONA)

Q3 2026
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HONA's post-spinoff quarter marred by earnings miss, guidance cut, and sharp share decline

  • Earnings miss and guidance cut Honeywell Aerospace missed its first earnings estimates as a standalone company and cut organic growth guidance to 4–5%, blaming supply constraints and a shift away from higher-margin aftermarket work. This disappointed investors and weighed heavily on the stock.

    This is the primary new negative event that drove the stock down during the quarter.

  • Sharp share price decline HONA shares fell over 20% and then nearly 28% more, reflecting a weak spinoff debut and negative market reaction to the earnings miss and guidance cut. The steep drop shows how volatile the new standalone stock has been.

    This directly answers what moved the price during the quarter.

  • Index removal and analyst downgrade HONA was removed from the S&P 100, which forced index funds to sell the stock, adding downward pressure. Morgan Stanley also cut its price target, further dampening investor sentiment.

    These are new negative events that contributed to the stock's decline.

  • Record order and defense sale Honeywell Aerospace won a record IndiGo order for 810 A320neo jets, extended its APU distribution deal with TAT through 2036, and secured a $750 million Saudi tank-engine sale. These support future revenue and defense growth.

    These positive developments are new and show underlying demand despite the stock's fall.

August 2026
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Honeywell Aerospace: Supply Chain Woes, Index Exit, Defense Deal

  • Supply chain problems trigger guidance cut and 28% stock plunge Honeywell Aerospace cut its full-year growth and profit outlook because supply chain constraints forced it to shift away from higher-margin aftermarket work. The stock fell nearly 28% as investors worried about execution and credibility. This is the main reason HONA is down.

    This is the biggest negative driver and explains the sharp price drop.

  • Madison Large Cap Fund initiates new position Madison Investments started a new stake in HONA, saying the spin-off will improve management incentives and capital allocation, and that the market underappreciates this. A notable fund buying can support the stock by signaling confidence.

    Shows a positive counterweight from institutional buying.

  • Removed from S&P 100 index HONA will be removed from the S&P 100 in a reshuffle, which forces index funds to sell the stock. This adds selling pressure and can weigh on the share price around the change date.

    A new negative event that affects demand for the stock.

  • State Department approves $750 million tank engine sale to Saudi Arabia Honeywell is the contractor for a $750 million sale of AGT-1500 tank engines to Saudi Arabia. While small, it supports Honeywell's defense propulsion business and adds to its international defense revenue, which is about 30% of defense and space sales.

    A new positive demand signal for Honeywell's defense segment.

Latest
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Honeywell Aerospace: Supply Chain Woes, Index Exit, Defense Deal

  • Supply chain problems trigger guidance cut and 28% stock plunge Honeywell Aerospace cut its full-year growth and profit outlook because supply chain constraints forced it to shift away from higher-margin aftermarket work. The stock fell nearly 28% as investors worried about execution and credibility. This is the main reason HONA is down.

    This is the biggest negative driver and explains the sharp price drop.

  • Madison Large Cap Fund initiates new position Madison Investments started a new stake in HONA, saying the spin-off will improve management incentives and capital allocation, and that the market underappreciates this. A notable fund buying can support the stock by signaling confidence.

    Shows a positive counterweight from institutional buying.

  • Removed from S&P 100 index HONA will be removed from the S&P 100 in a reshuffle, which forces index funds to sell the stock. This adds selling pressure and can weigh on the share price around the change date.

    A new negative event that affects demand for the stock.

  • State Department approves $750 million tank engine sale to Saudi Arabia Honeywell is the contractor for a $750 million sale of AGT-1500 tank engines to Saudi Arabia. While small, it supports Honeywell's defense propulsion business and adds to its international defense revenue, which is about 30% of defense and space sales.

    A new positive demand signal for Honeywell's defense segment.

July 2026
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HONA Spinoff Debuts, Wins Record Order, Then Guidance Cut Sinks Stock

  • First Earnings Miss and Guidance Cut HONA's first earnings as an independent company missed estimates ($1.87 vs. $2.13 EPS), and management slashed full-year organic growth guidance to 4–5% from 7–9%, sending shares down over 20% on supply constraints and execution doubts.

    This was the biggest price-moving event of the period, directly causing a sharp sell-off.

  • Record IndiGo Order and TAT Deal Extension HONA won a record order from IndiGo for avionics and auxiliary power units across 810 A320neo jets, and extended its exclusive APU parts distribution deal with TAT through 2036, boosting long-term aftermarket revenue.

    This major contract win and partnership extension provide a positive long-term revenue outlook.

  • Weak Spinoff Debut and Analyst Downgrade Despite completing its spin-off on June 29 and joining the S&P 500, HONA shares fell nearly 5% on day one, and Morgan Stanley cut its price target on valuation concerns, signaling a rocky start as a standalone company.

    This captures the immediate negative market reaction and analyst caution following the spin-off.

  • Cramer Calls HONA an Overlooked Winner Jim Cramer highlighted HONA as an overlooked post-split winner, offering a bullish counterpoint to the earnings miss and guidance cut, though the stock remained under pressure.

    This provides a notable positive sentiment shift amid otherwise negative news.

▲3▼1

HONA wins record IndiGo order but first earnings miss and guidance cut sink stock

  • Record IndiGo order for avionics and APUs Honeywell won a landmark deal to supply avionics and auxiliary power units for IndiGo's 810 Airbus A320neo jets, the largest equipment selection in its history. This adds billions in future revenue and aftermarket services, boosting long-term demand and investor confidence.

    This is the biggest new positive catalyst, directly driving future revenue and demand.

  • Expanded APU parts distribution deal with TAT Honeywell extended its exclusive APU parts distribution and MRO agreement with TAT Technologies through 2036, securing a long-term aftermarket revenue stream. This strengthens recurring income from maintenance services, which is a stable, high-margin business.

    It shows continued aftermarket strength, a key profit driver for aerospace suppliers.

  • First earnings miss and guidance cut as independent company HONA reported Q2 earnings of $1.87 per share, missing the $2.13 estimate, and cut full-year organic sales growth to 4-5% from 7-9%. The stock plunged over 20% as supply constraints limit sales, raising doubts about near-term execution.

    This is the dominant new negative event that caused a massive price drop and reset expectations.

  • Cramer highlights HONA as overlooked post-split winner Jim Cramer said Honeywell Aerospace may be the overlooked winner of the Honeywell breakup, noting its $17.4 billion in 2025 sales and $18 billion backlog. He expects focused aviation firms to command premium valuations, which could attract more investors over time.

    This is a new analyst endorsement that could support the stock's narrative despite recent weakness.

▲2▼2

HONA's spin-off completes, but valuation and first-day drop temper the story

  • Spin-off completion and pure-play status Honeywell Aerospace became an independent public company on June 29, trading as HONA. The separation lets management focus solely on aerospace and defense, which can unlock value and attract investors who want a pure-play supplier. This is the main reason HONA exists as a standalone stock.

    It is the foundational event that created HONA and directly drives its investment case.

  • Strong defense demand and large backlog The CEO highlighted HONA's mission-critical role in defense platforms, and the company debuted with an $18.4 billion backlog. That backlog provides visibility into future revenue, especially from recurring aftermarket services, which supports the stock's long-term value.

    It explains the fundamental demand driver behind HONA's revenue and earnings potential.

  • First-day price drop despite index inclusion HONA shares fell nearly 5% on their first trading day, even after being added to the S&P 500 and S&P 100. The drop shows that forced buying by index funds was not enough to offset selling pressure, a reminder that spin-offs can be volatile early on.

    It is a real counterweight to the positive spin-off news and shows the stock's early trading weakness.

  • Morgan Stanley cuts price target Morgan Stanley lowered its price target for Honeywell Aerospace while staying positive on the broader aerospace sector. The cut reflects valuation concerns after recent stock moves, not weakening fundamentals, but it can still weigh on investor sentiment and the share price.

    It is a fresh analyst action that directly affects HONA's perceived value.

Q2 2026
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Honeywell Aerospace Spinoff Nears Completion, Set to Join S&P 500

  • Spinoff Approval and Distribution Date Honeywell's board approved the aerospace spinoff, with shares to be distributed on June 29. Shareholders get one HONA share for every two Honeywell shares. This creates a pure-play aerospace company, which can unlock value and drive the stock higher.

    This is the core event that creates HONA as a standalone company, directly impacting its valuation and future.

  • S&P 500 and S&P 100 Inclusion HONA will join the S&P 500 and S&P 100 on June 29, replacing Conagra and Honeywell International respectively. This inclusion forces index funds to buy the stock, increasing demand and potentially lifting the price.

    Index inclusion is a major catalyst that broadens the investor base and typically supports higher valuations.

  • Appointment of AT&T CFO as Director Honeywell Aerospace appointed AT&T CFO Pascal Desroches as an independent director and audit chair. This adds financial expertise to the board, which can boost investor confidence and support the stock price.

    A strong board appointment signals good governance and can positively influence investor sentiment.

June 2026
▲3

Honeywell Aerospace Spinoff Nears Completion, Set to Join S&P 500

  • Spinoff Approval and Distribution Date Honeywell's board approved the aerospace spinoff, with shares to be distributed on June 29. Shareholders get one HONA share for every two Honeywell shares. This creates a pure-play aerospace company, which can unlock value and drive the stock higher.

    This is the core event that creates HONA as a standalone company, directly impacting its valuation and future.

  • S&P 500 and S&P 100 Inclusion HONA will join the S&P 500 and S&P 100 on June 29, replacing Conagra and Honeywell International respectively. This inclusion forces index funds to buy the stock, increasing demand and potentially lifting the price.

    Index inclusion is a major catalyst that broadens the investor base and typically supports higher valuations.

  • Appointment of AT&T CFO as Director Honeywell Aerospace appointed AT&T CFO Pascal Desroches as an independent director and audit chair. This adds financial expertise to the board, which can boost investor confidence and support the stock price.

    A strong board appointment signals good governance and can positively influence investor sentiment.

▲3

Honeywell Aerospace Spinoff Nears Completion, Set to Join S&P 500

  • Spinoff Approval and Distribution Date Honeywell's board approved the aerospace spinoff, with shares to be distributed on June 29. Shareholders get one HONA share for every two Honeywell shares. This creates a pure-play aerospace company, which can unlock value and drive the stock higher.

    This is the core event that creates HONA as a standalone company, directly impacting its valuation and future.

  • S&P 500 and S&P 100 Inclusion HONA will join the S&P 500 and S&P 100 on June 29, replacing Conagra and Honeywell International respectively. This inclusion forces index funds to buy the stock, increasing demand and potentially lifting the price.

    Index inclusion is a major catalyst that broadens the investor base and typically supports higher valuations.

  • Appointment of AT&T CFO as Director Honeywell Aerospace appointed AT&T CFO Pascal Desroches as an independent director and audit chair. This adds financial expertise to the board, which can boost investor confidence and support the stock price.

    A strong board appointment signals good governance and can positively influence investor sentiment.

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI.BK)

Q3 2026
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Thai Airways Q3 mixed: profit trough, but fuel, lock-up, floods weigh

  • Q2 profit trough and core earnings beat Q2 marked the profit trough, with core earnings beating expectations on higher fares and cargo revenue. This suggests the worst may be over, supporting recovery hopes.

    It signals a potential turning point in profitability, a key driver for the stock.

  • Lower oil prices and broker upgrades Lower oil prices and broker upgrades (KKPS Buy, 9.20 baht target) provided support. Fleet expansion under Jump+ plan and FTSE Small Cap inclusion also boosted sentiment.

    These factors directly improve cost outlook and investor perception, driving price.

  • Q2 profit plunge and share lock-up expiry Q2 profit plunged 87% on doubled jet fuel costs and weak demand. The expiry of a 19.8bn-share lock-up created heavy selling pressure, weighing on the stock.

    These are major negative events that pressured the stock price during the quarter.

  • Bangkok flooding and CEO suspension Bangkok flooding caused cancellations, a 12,000-ton cargo backlog, and 30% capacity cuts. The CEO's suspension adds leadership uncertainty, further dampening investor confidence.

    Operational disruptions and management instability are significant negative drivers.

September 2026
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Thai Airways: FTSE boost, flood disruptions, CEO suspended

  • FTSE Small Cap inclusion and winter schedule expansion Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index and expanded its winter schedule to 998 weekly flights. Strong bookings with an 85% cabin factor support its 200 billion baht revenue target.

    This point highlights the positive operational and market developments that drove investor sentiment during the period.

  • Bangkok flooding causes flight cancellations and cargo backlog Severe flooding in Bangkok forced dozens of flight cancellations, stranded over 5,600 bags, cut capacity by 30%, and suspended cargo operations with a 12,000-ton backlog, disrupting operations.

    This point captures the major operational disruption that negatively impacted the airline's performance during the period.

  • CEO suspended pending investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri pending an investigation, creating leadership uncertainty and potentially affecting strategic execution and investor confidence.

    This point addresses the governance and leadership risk that emerged during the period.

  • Brokers recommend gradual accumulation on cheap valuation Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a cheap 6.9x 2027 P/E, a 7.56 baht target, lower fuel costs, and expected high-season earnings recovery, despite recent disruptions.

    This point shows analyst optimism and the factors that could drive future price recovery.

Latest
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Flood crisis hits Thai Airways operations, CEO suspended; recovery and cheap valuation in focus

  • Flooding forces flight cancellations and baggage chaos Bangkok flooding left ground staff unable to reach work, so Thai Airways cancelled dozens of flights, stranded over 5,600 bags, and cut Bangkok capacity by about 30%. This directly hits peak-season revenue and adds compensation costs, weighing on the shares.

    This is the core new event that explains the sharp drop in THAI shares this period.

  • Cargo operations suspended, 12,000 tons backlogged Thai Airways halted inbound and outbound cargo at Suvarnabhumi from October 1–6 after flooding caused a staffing shortage, leaving about 12,000 tons of goods stuck. The government pressured the airline to fix it fast, adding to reputational and financial damage.

    Cargo is a meaningful profit source and the suspension is a new operational blow not previously reported.

  • CEO suspended, board launches investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri and appointed an acting chief pending a fact-finding probe into crisis management. Leadership uncertainty and possible governance issues are a short-term overhang, though brokers see limited profit impact if operations normalise quickly.

    This is a major new governance event that adds uncertainty and affects investor confidence.

  • Recovery underway, brokers see cheap valuation and Q4 rebound Thai Airways restored most flights by October 1–3 and cleared the baggage backlog. Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a 7.56 baht consensus target, a cheap 2027 P/E of 6.9x, lower fuel costs, and a high-season earnings recovery.

    This provides the counterweight: the operational crisis is easing and analysts still see value and a Q4 rebound.

▲3

Thai Airways: index inclusion, winter schedule, and bookings offset fuel cost pressure

  • FTSE Small Cap inclusion draws index-tracking buyers Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index effective September 18-21, 2026. Funds that track the index must buy the stock, creating steady demand. This is a one-time technical event that can lift the share price as new buyers step in.

    This is a new, concrete event that directly increases demand for THAI shares.

  • Winter schedule adds flights and routes, boosting revenue outlook Thai Airways launched its winter 2026/2027 schedule with 998 weekly flights across 66 routes, including a new Bangkok-Da Nang service and more flights to Europe. More flights mean more revenue, supporting the company's 200 billion baht full-year target.

    This is a new operational expansion that directly supports future revenue and earnings.

  • Strong bookings and 85% cabin factor signal resilient demand KGI Securities said 3Q69 bookings grew year on year, helped by a European route recovery and an 85% cabin factor. The fourth quarter is expected to grow with the tourism season. This shows demand is holding up despite high fuel costs, supporting earnings.

    This is new analyst evidence that passenger demand remains strong, a key driver of profit.

  • CEO search adds uncertainty but also a chance for fresh strategy Thai Airways opened applications for a new CEO to succeed Chai Eamsiri, whose term ends in January 2027. The new leader must handle 80 billion baht in debenture debt and a 55-aircraft order plan. Uncertainty over leadership can weigh on the stock, but a strong new CEO could improve execution.

    This is a new governance event that could affect investor confidence and future strategy.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

  • Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.

    This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.

  • Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.

    It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.

  • Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.

    It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.

  • KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

▲3▼1

Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

  • Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.

    This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.

  • Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.

    It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.

  • Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.

    It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.

  • KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

July 2026
▲2▼2

THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

  • Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.

    Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.

  • 19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.

    This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.

  • U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.

    New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.

  • Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.

    Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.

▲2▼2

THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

  • Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.

    Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.

  • 19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.

    This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.

  • U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.

    New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.

  • Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.

    Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.

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