Joby Aviation vs Thai Airways International: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Joby Aviation (JOBY)

Q3 20266 Jul – 25 Sep 2026

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Joby advances on deals, certification, and defense; dilution risk persists

Toyota manufacturing joint venture Joby formed a manufacturing joint venture with Toyota (Toyota 51%, Joby 49%), combining Joby's electric aircraft with Toyota's factory expertise to mass-produce air taxis, which could lower costs and speed production.
This is a major new partnership that could accelerate production and reduce costs, directly supporting the stock.
UK exclusive deal and revenue guidance raise Joby finalized an exclusive UK air taxi deal with Virgin Atlantic and raised 2026 revenue guidance to $115–125 million, signaling commercial progress and stronger demand outlook.
New commercial agreement and higher guidance show tangible business momentum, a positive for investors.
Certification lead and defense acquisition Joby completed its first FAA-conforming eVTOL flight, leading Archer in certification, and acquired defense firm Resonant Sciences ($100 million in sales), while demonstrating a 3,199-mile autonomous flight.
These milestones show technical and strategic progress, including new defense revenue, supporting the stock.
Dilution and cash burn risk Joby plans up to $750 million in stock sales with $385–415 million H2 cash burn, creating dilution pressure and underscoring the need for timely FAA approval, while rivals' incompatible charging network could give them an infrastructure edge.
This is a real counterweight: potential share dilution and cash burn could pressure the stock, and competitive infrastructure risks loom.

September 202610 Aug – 25 Sep 2026

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Joby's Certification Lead and Defense/Autonomy Push Face Cash Burn

FAA certification lead over Archer Joby has completed its first FAA-conforming eVTOL flight and has five aircraft flying, while Archer has none. This regulatory lead makes Joby the likely first to commercialize, boosting its long-term revenue potential and competitive position.
Certification is the key catalyst for Joby's air taxi business and its lead over rivals directly supports the bull case.
Defense acquisition adds revenue and technology Joby acquired Resonant Sciences, a defense tech firm with $100 million in sales and 40% growth, to combine with its aircraft and autonomy. This adds a profitable revenue stream and strengthens its defense business, diversifying beyond air taxis.
The acquisition is a new strategic move that expands Joby's business and could accelerate revenue growth.
Autonomous cross-country flight milestone Joby's autonomy-equipped Cessna completed a 3,199-mile fully autonomous flight, proving its autonomy stack for future freight, medical, and defense logistics. This opens new markets on certified airframes, though it doesn't speed up air taxi certification.
The milestone demonstrates technological leadership and potential new revenue streams, supporting the long-term growth story.
Heavy cash burn and dilution risk Joby plans to sell up to $750 million in new stock and expects $385–415 million cash use in H2 2026, against $2.3 billion liquidity. This dilution pressures the share price and highlights the need for FAA approval before cash tightens.
The financing overhang is a major risk that could cap near-term upside and is a key counterweight to the positive catalysts.

Latest10 Aug – 25 Sep 2026

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Joby's Certification Lead and Defense/Autonomy Push Face Cash Burn

FAA certification lead over Archer Joby has completed its first FAA-conforming eVTOL flight and has five aircraft flying, while Archer has none. This regulatory lead makes Joby the likely first to commercialize, boosting its long-term revenue potential and competitive position.
Certification is the key catalyst for Joby's air taxi business and its lead over rivals directly supports the bull case.
Defense acquisition adds revenue and technology Joby acquired Resonant Sciences, a defense tech firm with $100 million in sales and 40% growth, to combine with its aircraft and autonomy. This adds a profitable revenue stream and strengthens its defense business, diversifying beyond air taxis.
The acquisition is a new strategic move that expands Joby's business and could accelerate revenue growth.
Autonomous cross-country flight milestone Joby's autonomy-equipped Cessna completed a 3,199-mile fully autonomous flight, proving its autonomy stack for future freight, medical, and defense logistics. This opens new markets on certified airframes, though it doesn't speed up air taxi certification.
The milestone demonstrates technological leadership and potential new revenue streams, supporting the long-term growth story.
Heavy cash burn and dilution risk Joby plans to sell up to $750 million in new stock and expects $385–415 million cash use in H2 2026, against $2.3 billion liquidity. This dilution pressures the share price and highlights the need for FAA approval before cash tightens.
The financing overhang is a major risk that could cap near-term upside and is a key counterweight to the positive catalysts.

July 20266 Jul – 5 Aug 2026

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Joby advances certification, raises guidance, and adds Virgin Atlantic and Toyota deals

Toyota manufacturing joint venture Joby and Toyota formed a manufacturing company (Toyota 51%, Joby 49%) to scale eVTOL production. This deepens Toyota's role beyond funding and supports Joby's path to making aircraft in volume, which investors see as key to future profits.
New partnership directly addresses production scaling, a core driver of JOBY's long-term value.
Virgin Atlantic air taxi deal Joby finalized a multiyear agreement making Virgin Atlantic its exclusive UK airline partner, with bookings through Virgin's site and initial routes from London and Manchester. This adds a major customer and expands Joby's relationship with Delta, which owns 49% of Virgin Atlantic.
New commercial agreement signals real demand and a clear path to revenue in a new market.
Raised 2026 revenue guidance and strong Q2 Joby raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $115–$125 million after Blade air taxi service generated $36.2 million in Q2. It also reported five aircraft flying, 12 in production, and $2.3 billion in cash, with first eIPP flights in Texas expected in September.
New financial guidance and operational milestones give concrete evidence of commercial progress.
Rival charging network excludes Joby Archer and Beta are deploying a standardized charging network at up to 250 US sites, using a plug incompatible with Joby's aircraft. This could give rivals an early infrastructure advantage, though FAA approval and business model profitability matter more long term.
New competitive development that could pressure Joby's market position and sentiment.

6 Jul – 5 Aug 2026

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Joby advances certification, raises guidance, and adds Virgin Atlantic and Toyota deals

Toyota manufacturing joint venture Joby and Toyota formed a manufacturing company (Toyota 51%, Joby 49%) to scale eVTOL production. This deepens Toyota's role beyond funding and supports Joby's path to making aircraft in volume, which investors see as key to future profits.
New partnership directly addresses production scaling, a core driver of JOBY's long-term value.
Virgin Atlantic air taxi deal Joby finalized a multiyear agreement making Virgin Atlantic its exclusive UK airline partner, with bookings through Virgin's site and initial routes from London and Manchester. This adds a major customer and expands Joby's relationship with Delta, which owns 49% of Virgin Atlantic.
New commercial agreement signals real demand and a clear path to revenue in a new market.
Raised 2026 revenue guidance and strong Q2 Joby raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $115–$125 million after Blade air taxi service generated $36.2 million in Q2. It also reported five aircraft flying, 12 in production, and $2.3 billion in cash, with first eIPP flights in Texas expected in September.
New financial guidance and operational milestones give concrete evidence of commercial progress.
Rival charging network excludes Joby Archer and Beta are deploying a standardized charging network at up to 250 US sites, using a plug incompatible with Joby's aircraft. This could give rivals an early infrastructure advantage, though FAA approval and business model profitability matter more long term.
New competitive development that could pressure Joby's market position and sentiment.

Q2 202617 Jun – 1 Jul 2026

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Joby advances certification and Toyota alliance, but stock still down 30% in 2026

First FAA-conforming eVTOL flight Joby began flying its first FAA-conforming production eVTOL, a key step toward Type Inspection Authorization and full certification. This shows real technical progress, making commercial service more likely and supporting the stock.
This is a new, concrete certification milestone that directly advances Joby's path to revenue.
Toyota manufacturing joint venture Joby and Toyota launched a joint venture to mass-produce air taxis, combining Joby's electric aviation with Toyota's factory expertise. This could lower costs and speed up production, a positive for future profits.
A new strategic partnership that addresses manufacturing scale, a key investor concern.
Favored over Archer by analysts Analysts picked Joby over rival Archer for 2026 eVTOL exposure, citing stronger revenue growth and a much lower price-to-sales ratio. This positive comparison may draw investor money into JOBY.
New analyst preference highlights Joby's relative advantage, influencing investor sentiment.
Stock down 30% in 2026 despite progress Joby shares have fallen about 30% this year even as certification advances, showing investors worry about high cash burn and no revenue yet. This weak price trend is a real counterweight to the positive news.
It provides the necessary balance: despite operational wins, the stock has been punished, reflecting execution and financial risks.

June 202617 Jun – 1 Jul 2026

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Joby advances certification and Toyota alliance, but stock still down 30% in 2026

First FAA-conforming eVTOL flight Joby began flying its first FAA-conforming production eVTOL, a key step toward Type Inspection Authorization and full certification. This shows real technical progress, making commercial service more likely and supporting the stock.
This is a new, concrete certification milestone that directly advances Joby's path to revenue.
Toyota manufacturing joint venture Joby and Toyota launched a joint venture to mass-produce air taxis, combining Joby's electric aviation with Toyota's factory expertise. This could lower costs and speed up production, a positive for future profits.
A new strategic partnership that addresses manufacturing scale, a key investor concern.
Favored over Archer by analysts Analysts picked Joby over rival Archer for 2026 eVTOL exposure, citing stronger revenue growth and a much lower price-to-sales ratio. This positive comparison may draw investor money into JOBY.
New analyst preference highlights Joby's relative advantage, influencing investor sentiment.
Stock down 30% in 2026 despite progress Joby shares have fallen about 30% this year even as certification advances, showing investors worry about high cash burn and no revenue yet. This weak price trend is a real counterweight to the positive news.
It provides the necessary balance: despite operational wins, the stock has been punished, reflecting execution and financial risks.

17 Jun – 1 Jul 2026

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Joby advances certification and Toyota alliance, but stock still down 30% in 2026

First FAA-conforming eVTOL flight Joby began flying its first FAA-conforming production eVTOL, a key step toward Type Inspection Authorization and full certification. This shows real technical progress, making commercial service more likely and supporting the stock.
This is a new, concrete certification milestone that directly advances Joby's path to revenue.
Toyota manufacturing joint venture Joby and Toyota launched a joint venture to mass-produce air taxis, combining Joby's electric aviation with Toyota's factory expertise. This could lower costs and speed up production, a positive for future profits.
A new strategic partnership that addresses manufacturing scale, a key investor concern.
Favored over Archer by analysts Analysts picked Joby over rival Archer for 2026 eVTOL exposure, citing stronger revenue growth and a much lower price-to-sales ratio. This positive comparison may draw investor money into JOBY.
New analyst preference highlights Joby's relative advantage, influencing investor sentiment.
Stock down 30% in 2026 despite progress Joby shares have fallen about 30% this year even as certification advances, showing investors worry about high cash burn and no revenue yet. This weak price trend is a real counterweight to the positive news.
It provides the necessary balance: despite operational wins, the stock has been punished, reflecting execution and financial risks.

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI.BK)

Q3 202621 Jul – 2 Oct 2026

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Thai Airways Q3 mixed: profit trough, but fuel, lock-up, floods weigh

Q2 profit trough and core earnings beat Q2 marked the profit trough, with core earnings beating expectations on higher fares and cargo revenue. This suggests the worst may be over, supporting recovery hopes.
It signals a potential turning point in profitability, a key driver for the stock.
Lower oil prices and broker upgrades Lower oil prices and broker upgrades (KKPS Buy, 9.20 baht target) provided support. Fleet expansion under Jump+ plan and FTSE Small Cap inclusion also boosted sentiment.
These factors directly improve cost outlook and investor perception, driving price.
Q2 profit plunge and share lock-up expiry Q2 profit plunged 87% on doubled jet fuel costs and weak demand. The expiry of a 19.8bn-share lock-up created heavy selling pressure, weighing on the stock.
These are major negative events that pressured the stock price during the quarter.
Bangkok flooding and CEO suspension Bangkok flooding caused cancellations, a 12,000-ton cargo backlog, and 30% capacity cuts. The CEO's suspension adds leadership uncertainty, further dampening investor confidence.
Operational disruptions and management instability are significant negative drivers.

September 202614 Sep – 2 Oct 2026

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Thai Airways: FTSE boost, flood disruptions, CEO suspended

FTSE Small Cap inclusion and winter schedule expansion Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index and expanded its winter schedule to 998 weekly flights. Strong bookings with an 85% cabin factor support its 200 billion baht revenue target.
This point highlights the positive operational and market developments that drove investor sentiment during the period.
Bangkok flooding causes flight cancellations and cargo backlog Severe flooding in Bangkok forced dozens of flight cancellations, stranded over 5,600 bags, cut capacity by 30%, and suspended cargo operations with a 12,000-ton backlog, disrupting operations.
This point captures the major operational disruption that negatively impacted the airline's performance during the period.
CEO suspended pending investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri pending an investigation, creating leadership uncertainty and potentially affecting strategic execution and investor confidence.
This point addresses the governance and leadership risk that emerged during the period.
Brokers recommend gradual accumulation on cheap valuation Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a cheap 6.9x 2027 P/E, a 7.56 baht target, lower fuel costs, and expected high-season earnings recovery, despite recent disruptions.
This point shows analyst optimism and the factors that could drive future price recovery.

Latest29 Sep – 2 Oct 2026

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Flood crisis hits Thai Airways operations, CEO suspended; recovery and cheap valuation in focus

Flooding forces flight cancellations and baggage chaos Bangkok flooding left ground staff unable to reach work, so Thai Airways cancelled dozens of flights, stranded over 5,600 bags, and cut Bangkok capacity by about 30%. This directly hits peak-season revenue and adds compensation costs, weighing on the shares.
This is the core new event that explains the sharp drop in THAI shares this period.
Cargo operations suspended, 12,000 tons backlogged Thai Airways halted inbound and outbound cargo at Suvarnabhumi from October 1–6 after flooding caused a staffing shortage, leaving about 12,000 tons of goods stuck. The government pressured the airline to fix it fast, adding to reputational and financial damage.
Cargo is a meaningful profit source and the suspension is a new operational blow not previously reported.
CEO suspended, board launches investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri and appointed an acting chief pending a fact-finding probe into crisis management. Leadership uncertainty and possible governance issues are a short-term overhang, though brokers see limited profit impact if operations normalise quickly.
This is a major new governance event that adds uncertainty and affects investor confidence.
Recovery underway, brokers see cheap valuation and Q4 rebound Thai Airways restored most flights by October 1–3 and cleared the baggage backlog. Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a 7.56 baht consensus target, a cheap 2027 P/E of 6.9x, lower fuel costs, and a high-season earnings recovery.
This provides the counterweight: the operational crisis is easing and analysts still see value and a Q4 rebound.

14 Sep – 24 Sep 2026

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Thai Airways: index inclusion, winter schedule, and bookings offset fuel cost pressure

FTSE Small Cap inclusion draws index-tracking buyers Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index effective September 18-21, 2026. Funds that track the index must buy the stock, creating steady demand. This is a one-time technical event that can lift the share price as new buyers step in.
This is a new, concrete event that directly increases demand for THAI shares.
Winter schedule adds flights and routes, boosting revenue outlook Thai Airways launched its winter 2026/2027 schedule with 998 weekly flights across 66 routes, including a new Bangkok-Da Nang service and more flights to Europe. More flights mean more revenue, supporting the company's 200 billion baht full-year target.
This is a new operational expansion that directly supports future revenue and earnings.
Strong bookings and 85% cabin factor signal resilient demand KGI Securities said 3Q69 bookings grew year on year, helped by a European route recovery and an 85% cabin factor. The fourth quarter is expected to grow with the tourism season. This shows demand is holding up despite high fuel costs, supporting earnings.
This is new analyst evidence that passenger demand remains strong, a key driver of profit.
CEO search adds uncertainty but also a chance for fresh strategy Thai Airways opened applications for a new CEO to succeed Chai Eamsiri, whose term ends in January 2027. The new leader must handle 80 billion baht in debenture debt and a 55-aircraft order plan. Uncertainty over leadership can weigh on the stock, but a strong new CEO could improve execution.
This is a new governance event that could affect investor confidence and future strategy.

August 202612 Aug – 11 Sep 2026

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Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.
This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.
Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.
It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.
Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.
It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.
KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.
A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

12 Aug – 11 Sep 2026

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Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.
This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.
Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.
It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.
Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.
It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.
KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.
A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

July 202621 Jul – 5 Aug 2026

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THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.
Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.
19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.
This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.
U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.
New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.
Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.
Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.

21 Jul – 5 Aug 2026

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THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.
Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.
19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.
This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.
U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.
New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.
Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.
Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.