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Newmont Goldcorp vs Zijin Mining: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)

Q3 2026
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Newmont's Q3: Record Cash Flow, Legal Wins, But Gold Bear Market and Cost Pressures

  • Record Free Cash Flow and Strong Earnings Newmont generated a record $2.2 billion in free cash flow in Q2, supported by strong earnings. This shows the company's ability to produce cash even as gold prices become more volatile.

    Highlights a key positive financial result that supports the stock.

  • Legal Disputes Resolved with Barrick Newmont resolved the Nevada Gold Mines and Fourmile disputes with Barrick, removing legal uncertainty. This supports future growth projects like Lihir and improves the company's operational outlook.

    Removes a major overhang and supports future growth prospects.

  • Gold Bear Market and Lower Production Guidance Gold entered a bear market, with BofA forecasting a lost year. Newmont guided 2026 production lower to 5.26 million ounces while costs jumped to $1,680 per ounce, squeezing margins.

    Directly pressures profitability and investor sentiment.

  • Ghana Mining Law Overhaul and Rising Bond Yields Ghana's mining law overhaul threatens fiscal terms, potentially increasing taxes or royalties. Rising bond yields also pressure gold prices and Newmont shares, while the $1.95 billion Barrick settlement was a major cash outflow.

    Introduces new regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds.

September 2026
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Newmont's cash surge and Fourmile clarity offset 2026 cost and output headwinds

  • 2026 production decline and soaring costs Newmont forecast 2026 gold output of about 5.26 million ounces, down from 5.89 million in 2025, and all-in sustaining costs jumping to $1,680 per ounce from $1,358. Lower sales volumes and higher costs squeeze profit margins, weighing on the stock.

    This is the main new fundamental headwind for NEM, directly affecting future earnings and cash flow.

  • Record $2.2 billion quarterly free cash flow Newmont generated record quarterly free cash flow of $2.2 billion, up 29% from a year ago, on operating cash flow of $2.9 billion. Strong cash generation supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction, making the stock more attractive to investors.

    This shows the company's ability to convert high gold prices into real cash, a key driver of shareholder value.

  • Fourmile ownership resolved with Barrick Newmont settled the ownership terms for its Fourmile project with Barrick, removing a major uncertainty. UBS says the market hasn't fully valued this high-quality Nevada resource, which could add future production and growth without the previous legal cloud.

    This clarifies a long-term growth asset and reduces risk, potentially lifting investor confidence and valuation.

  • Rising bond yields pressure gold and NEM Newmont shares fell 4.4% as gold prices dropped 3% on soaring U.S. government bond yields. Higher yields make gold less appealing because it pays no interest, so falling gold prices directly reduce Newmont's revenue and cash flow.

    This highlights the key external force—interest rates—that can quickly move gold and Newmont's stock.

Latest
▲2▼2

Newmont's cash surge and Fourmile clarity offset 2026 cost and output headwinds

  • 2026 production decline and soaring costs Newmont forecast 2026 gold output of about 5.26 million ounces, down from 5.89 million in 2025, and all-in sustaining costs jumping to $1,680 per ounce from $1,358. Lower sales volumes and higher costs squeeze profit margins, weighing on the stock.

    This is the main new fundamental headwind for NEM, directly affecting future earnings and cash flow.

  • Record $2.2 billion quarterly free cash flow Newmont generated record quarterly free cash flow of $2.2 billion, up 29% from a year ago, on operating cash flow of $2.9 billion. Strong cash generation supports dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction, making the stock more attractive to investors.

    This shows the company's ability to convert high gold prices into real cash, a key driver of shareholder value.

  • Fourmile ownership resolved with Barrick Newmont settled the ownership terms for its Fourmile project with Barrick, removing a major uncertainty. UBS says the market hasn't fully valued this high-quality Nevada resource, which could add future production and growth without the previous legal cloud.

    This clarifies a long-term growth asset and reduces risk, potentially lifting investor confidence and valuation.

  • Rising bond yields pressure gold and NEM Newmont shares fell 4.4% as gold prices dropped 3% on soaring U.S. government bond yields. Higher yields make gold less appealing because it pays no interest, so falling gold prices directly reduce Newmont's revenue and cash flow.

    This highlights the key external force—interest rates—that can quickly move gold and Newmont's stock.

August 2026
▲3

Newmont Settles Nevada Dispute, Posts Record Q2 Cash Flow

  • Nevada Gold Mines Dispute Resolved Newmont paid $1.95 billion to Barrick to settle the Nevada Gold Mines dispute, gaining the Mike and Fiberline projects and agreeing to Barrick's North American IPO. This removes a major legal cloud and makes cash flow more predictable.

    This is the biggest new event, removing a legal overhang that had weighed on the stock.

  • Record Q2 Free Cash Flow and Earnings Newmont reported record second-quarter free cash flow of $2.2 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.10, helped by gold prices above $4,400 per ounce. Strong cash generation supports the business and shareholder returns.

    This is new financial data for the period, showing strong operational performance.

  • Gold Surge and Fed Inflation Tolerance Gold prices continued to surge, and the Federal Reserve's tolerance of above-target inflation supported demand for gold and gold-mining shares. This macro backdrop boosts Newmont's revenue and share demand.

    This is a new macro development that directly supports Newmont's revenue and stock demand.

  • Cash Outflow and Gold Price Leverage The $1.95 billion settlement payment is a significant cash outflow, and Newmont's fortunes remain heavily tied to volatile gold prices. Miners typically amplify gold's moves in both directions, so this cuts both ways.

    This is the main counterweight, highlighting the cash cost and ongoing volatility risk.

▲2

Gold's surge and Fed inflation tolerance lift Newmont, with Nevada settlement still in play

  • Gold price surge drives revenue and cash flow Gold broke above $4,400 an ounce, pushing the VanEck Gold Miners ETF to a decade high. Newmont, as a top holding, benefits because higher gold prices directly increase its revenue and cash flow, and miners historically move about twice as much as gold.

    This is the core reason NEM is moving: higher gold prices boost profits.

  • Fed's tolerance of above-target inflation supports gold A JPMorgan strategist said the Fed has quietly accepted inflation above 2% to manage debt. That weakens the dollar and makes gold more attractive as a store of value, which lifts demand for gold and Newmont's shares.

    This explains a key macro force behind gold's rise and NEM's gains.

▲4

Newmont Pays $1.95B to End Nevada Dispute and Unlock Barrick IPO

  • Nevada Gold Mines dispute resolved; Newmont pays $1.95B Newmont and Barrick ended all disputes over their Nevada joint venture. Newmont will pay Barrick $1.95 billion and add its Mike and Fiberline projects; Barrick adds Fourmile. The combined asset holds nearly 100 million ounces of gold. This removes a major legal and operational overhang, making Newmont's future cash flows more predictable.

    This is the period's biggest new event and directly changes NEM's risk and cash outlook.

  • Newmont approves Barrick's North American IPO Newmont consented to Barrick spinning off its North American gold assets in an IPO later this year. That clears the path for Barrick to restructure, and Newmont keeps its stake in the expanded Nevada venture. For Newmont, it locks in a cleaner partnership and potential value from the new public company.

    It is a new structural change that affects Newmont's ownership and future options.

  • Newmont keeps 8.2% stake in Awalé Resources Newmont invested $1.69 million in Awalé Resources to maintain its 8.2% ownership. Awalé raised $20.7 million to explore its Odienné project in Côte d'Ivoire. This is a small but steady bet on future gold discoveries, showing Newmont is still funding early-stage growth even while cutting costs elsewhere.

    It is a new capital commitment that signals Newmont's long-term exploration strategy.

  • Record Q2 free cash flow and earnings beat Newmont reported record second-quarter free cash flow of $2.2 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.10, beating estimates. Realized gold prices above $4,400 an ounce drove the results. Strong cash generation supports the dividend and helps fund the $1.95 billion Barrick payment without straining the balance sheet.

    It is new this period and shows the financial strength behind the Nevada deal.

July 2026
▼3▲1

Gold Bear Market and Cost Pressures Weigh on Newmont Despite Growth Projects

  • Gold Bear Market and Production Decline Squeeze Margins Gold entered a bear market, falling over 25% from highs, while Newmont guided 2026 production down to 5.3 million ounces and costs up to $1,680 per ounce. This margin squeeze drove a 14.9% stock drop in June and remains a key overhang.

    This is the primary reason for the recent stock decline and sets the context for the period.

  • Ghana Mining Law Overhaul Threatens Newmont's Fiscal Terms Ghana plans to limit lease renewals to 10 years and abolish stability agreements that lock in taxes and royalties. Newmont's existing agreements expire in 2027, so this could raise costs and uncertainty for its Ghana operations.

    This is a new regulatory risk that could negatively impact future profits and investor sentiment.

  • BofA Forecasts a Lost Year for Gold, Pressuring Miner Demand Bank of America expects gold to consolidate or fall further in 2026, advising investors to avoid chasing the metal. This reduces demand for gold miners like Newmont, though BofA still sees Newmont as the strongest relative option among major miners.

    This analyst view reinforces the negative demand outlook for gold and directly affects NEM's perceived value.

  • Lihir Project and Strong Q2 Cash Flow Support Long-Term Growth Newmont outlined the Lihir nearshore barrier project, expected to unlock over 5 million ounces of gold from 2028, and reported record Q2 free cash flow of $2.2 billion. This shows operational strength and future growth potential.

    This is a new positive development that highlights Newmont's ability to generate cash and grow production, countering some negative sentiment.

▼3▲1

Gold Bear Market and Cost Pressures Weigh on Newmont Despite Growth Projects

  • Gold Bear Market and Production Decline Squeeze Margins Gold entered a bear market, falling over 25% from highs, while Newmont guided 2026 production down to 5.3 million ounces and costs up to $1,680 per ounce. This margin squeeze drove a 14.9% stock drop in June and remains a key overhang.

    This is the primary reason for the recent stock decline and sets the context for the period.

  • Ghana Mining Law Overhaul Threatens Newmont's Fiscal Terms Ghana plans to limit lease renewals to 10 years and abolish stability agreements that lock in taxes and royalties. Newmont's existing agreements expire in 2027, so this could raise costs and uncertainty for its Ghana operations.

    This is a new regulatory risk that could negatively impact future profits and investor sentiment.

  • BofA Forecasts a Lost Year for Gold, Pressuring Miner Demand Bank of America expects gold to consolidate or fall further in 2026, advising investors to avoid chasing the metal. This reduces demand for gold miners like Newmont, though BofA still sees Newmont as the strongest relative option among major miners.

    This analyst view reinforces the negative demand outlook for gold and directly affects NEM's perceived value.

  • Lihir Project and Strong Q2 Cash Flow Support Long-Term Growth Newmont outlined the Lihir nearshore barrier project, expected to unlock over 5 million ounces of gold from 2028, and reported record Q2 free cash flow of $2.2 billion. This shows operational strength and future growth potential.

    This is a new positive development that highlights Newmont's ability to generate cash and grow production, countering some negative sentiment.

Q2 2026
▲3

Newmont's Growth Pipeline Advances as Gold Slump Tests Investor Resolve

  • Red Chris Block Cave Project Advances with Regulatory and Government Support Newmont received key regulatory approvals for the Red Chris Block Cave project, and Canada committed $500 million to support it. This extends mine life into the mid-2040s, boosts future copper and gold output, and strengthens the business case, pushing NEM's price up on growth prospects.

    This is a new, concrete development that directly enhances Newmont's long-term production and cash flow potential.

  • Newmont's Strong Balance Sheet and Capital Returns Shine Newmont used high gold prices to pay down debt, reaching a net cash position of $2.06 billion in 2025. It prioritizes a $1.1 billion annual dividend and $6 billion in share buybacks, which supports the stock by returning cash to shareholders and reducing risk.

    This highlights Newmont's financial strength and shareholder-friendly actions, which are key drivers of investor confidence and the stock price.

  • Gold Price Slump Creates Buying Opportunity but Near-Term Pressure Gold had its worst quarterly drop in 13 years, falling 15% in Q2 2026 due to inflation and rate hike fears. While this pressures gold miners' profits, analysts see it as a buying opportunity for long-term investors, citing Newmont's $12.8 billion liquidity and ongoing central bank demand.

    This explains the recent gold price decline and its dual impact on NEM: short-term headwind but potential long-term entry point.

  • Leadership Reshuffle and Undervaluation Narrative Attract Attention Newmont refreshed its executive ranks with new CFO, COO, and CTO effective July 1, 2026. The stock is considered 38.7% undervalued based on a $177 fair value estimate, driven by digitalization and efficiency initiatives, though declining ore grades and rising ESG costs are risks.

    This new leadership change and valuation gap could drive investor interest and price appreciation if the market re-rates the stock.

June 2026
▲3

Newmont's Growth Pipeline Advances as Gold Slump Tests Investor Resolve

  • Red Chris Block Cave Project Advances with Regulatory and Government Support Newmont received key regulatory approvals for the Red Chris Block Cave project, and Canada committed $500 million to support it. This extends mine life into the mid-2040s, boosts future copper and gold output, and strengthens the business case, pushing NEM's price up on growth prospects.

    This is a new, concrete development that directly enhances Newmont's long-term production and cash flow potential.

  • Newmont's Strong Balance Sheet and Capital Returns Shine Newmont used high gold prices to pay down debt, reaching a net cash position of $2.06 billion in 2025. It prioritizes a $1.1 billion annual dividend and $6 billion in share buybacks, which supports the stock by returning cash to shareholders and reducing risk.

    This highlights Newmont's financial strength and shareholder-friendly actions, which are key drivers of investor confidence and the stock price.

  • Gold Price Slump Creates Buying Opportunity but Near-Term Pressure Gold had its worst quarterly drop in 13 years, falling 15% in Q2 2026 due to inflation and rate hike fears. While this pressures gold miners' profits, analysts see it as a buying opportunity for long-term investors, citing Newmont's $12.8 billion liquidity and ongoing central bank demand.

    This explains the recent gold price decline and its dual impact on NEM: short-term headwind but potential long-term entry point.

  • Leadership Reshuffle and Undervaluation Narrative Attract Attention Newmont refreshed its executive ranks with new CFO, COO, and CTO effective July 1, 2026. The stock is considered 38.7% undervalued based on a $177 fair value estimate, driven by digitalization and efficiency initiatives, though declining ore grades and rising ESG costs are risks.

    This new leadership change and valuation gap could drive investor interest and price appreciation if the market re-rates the stock.

▲3

Newmont's Growth Pipeline Advances as Gold Slump Tests Investor Resolve

  • Red Chris Block Cave Project Advances with Regulatory and Government Support Newmont received key regulatory approvals for the Red Chris Block Cave project, and Canada committed $500 million to support it. This extends mine life into the mid-2040s, boosts future copper and gold output, and strengthens the business case, pushing NEM's price up on growth prospects.

    This is a new, concrete development that directly enhances Newmont's long-term production and cash flow potential.

  • Newmont's Strong Balance Sheet and Capital Returns Shine Newmont used high gold prices to pay down debt, reaching a net cash position of $2.06 billion in 2025. It prioritizes a $1.1 billion annual dividend and $6 billion in share buybacks, which supports the stock by returning cash to shareholders and reducing risk.

    This highlights Newmont's financial strength and shareholder-friendly actions, which are key drivers of investor confidence and the stock price.

  • Gold Price Slump Creates Buying Opportunity but Near-Term Pressure Gold had its worst quarterly drop in 13 years, falling 15% in Q2 2026 due to inflation and rate hike fears. While this pressures gold miners' profits, analysts see it as a buying opportunity for long-term investors, citing Newmont's $12.8 billion liquidity and ongoing central bank demand.

    This explains the recent gold price decline and its dual impact on NEM: short-term headwind but potential long-term entry point.

  • Leadership Reshuffle and Undervaluation Narrative Attract Attention Newmont refreshed its executive ranks with new CFO, COO, and CTO effective July 1, 2026. The stock is considered 38.7% undervalued based on a $177 fair value estimate, driven by digitalization and efficiency initiatives, though declining ore grades and rising ESG costs are risks.

    This new leadership change and valuation gap could drive investor interest and price appreciation if the market re-rates the stock.

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899.CG)

Q3 2026
▲4

Zijin shines on record gold, copper prices and profit surge

  • Gold and silver prices rally on central bank buying and tight supply Gold and silver prices rose sharply as central banks bought more and mine supply lagged, shifting demand to policy and reserves. This lifted Zijin's revenue and profit.

    Higher precious metal prices directly boost Zijin's earnings and stock price.

  • Copper prices climb on DRC export bans and falling LME inventories Copper prices rose due to export bans in the DRC and lower LME inventories. Zijin said the ban had limited operational impact, but higher copper prices still supported earnings.

    Copper is a key revenue driver for Zijin, and price increases directly improve profitability.

  • First-half net profit jumps 68% to 39.2 billion yuan Zijin's first-half net profit surged 68% to about 39.2 billion yuan on higher output and prices. The company also raised its interim dividend to 4.20 yuan per 10 shares, over 11.1 billion yuan.

    Strong profit growth and higher dividends attract investors and support the stock price.

  • Ethiopian approval of $4 billion Allied Gold acquisition Ethiopian regulators approved Zijin's $4 billion acquisition of Allied Gold, expanding gold resources and reducing uncertainty. Shares surged over 20% in July as investors favored dividend-paying blue chips.

    The acquisition approval removes a major overhang and boosts growth prospects, driving the stock higher.

August 2026
▲4

Zijin's profit jumps 68% on gold and copper strength

  • Gold demand shifts to fundamentals Gold demand is growing faster than mine supply, and central banks are buying. This supports higher gold prices, which boosts Zijin's revenue and profit from its gold mines.

    Explains the long-term demand driver behind Zijin's gold business.

  • Copper supply worries lift prices The DRC export ban and falling LME inventories have pushed copper prices higher. Zijin says the ban has limited impact on its operations, but higher copper prices still benefit its copper sales.

    Shows a key supply-side factor affecting copper prices and Zijin's earnings.

  • Record first-half profit and dividend Zijin reported first-half net profit up 68% to 39.2 billion yuan, with strong cash flow and production growth. It proposed a dividend of 4.2 yuan per 10 shares, rewarding shareholders.

    The latest earnings confirm strong financial performance and shareholder returns.

  • Blue-chip safe-haven demand Investors are favoring blue-chip stocks with stable dividends and earnings certainty. Zijin's shares surged over 20% in July as part of this shift, attracting capital.

    Highlights the market rotation into blue chips that has boosted Zijin's stock.

Latest
▲4

Zijin's profit jumps 68% on gold and copper strength

  • Gold demand shifts to fundamentals Gold demand is growing faster than mine supply, and central banks are buying. This supports higher gold prices, which boosts Zijin's revenue and profit from its gold mines.

    Explains the long-term demand driver behind Zijin's gold business.

  • Copper supply worries lift prices The DRC export ban and falling LME inventories have pushed copper prices higher. Zijin says the ban has limited impact on its operations, but higher copper prices still benefit its copper sales.

    Shows a key supply-side factor affecting copper prices and Zijin's earnings.

  • Record first-half profit and dividend Zijin reported first-half net profit up 68% to 39.2 billion yuan, with strong cash flow and production growth. It proposed a dividend of 4.2 yuan per 10 shares, rewarding shareholders.

    The latest earnings confirm strong financial performance and shareholder returns.

  • Blue-chip safe-haven demand Investors are favoring blue-chip stocks with stable dividends and earnings certainty. Zijin's shares surged over 20% in July as part of this shift, attracting capital.

    Highlights the market rotation into blue chips that has boosted Zijin's stock.

July 2026
▲4

Zijin's profit surge, dividend hike, and Ethiopia deal approval lift shares

  • Gold sector strength Gold and silver prices are up sharply year-on-year, and the precious metals sector is shifting to a policy- and reserves-driven phase. This boosts demand for gold miners like Zijin, pushing its stock up as investors expect higher revenue.

    Explains the broader sector tailwind that lifts Zijin's price.

  • 68% profit growth forecast Zijin expects first-half 2026 net profit of about 39.1 billion yuan, up 68% from a year earlier, driven by higher output and selling prices. This strong earnings growth signals the company is making much more money, which supports a higher stock price.

    Directly shows the company's financial performance, a key price driver.

  • Bigger interim dividend Zijin plans to pay an interim dividend of 4.20 yuan per 10 shares, totaling over 11.1 billion yuan, exceeding its earlier proposal. A larger payout returns more cash to shareholders, making the stock more attractive and likely pushing its price up.

    Dividend increases directly enhance shareholder returns and investor appeal.

  • Ethiopia approves Allied Gold deal Ethiopian regulators cleared Zijin's $4 billion acquisition of Allied Gold, with closing expected before July 29. This removes a major hurdle, expands Zijin's gold resources, and reduces uncertainty, which should lift the stock price.

    Regulatory approval is a key step that de-risks a major growth acquisition.

▲4

Zijin's profit surge, dividend hike, and Ethiopia deal approval lift shares

  • Gold sector strength Gold and silver prices are up sharply year-on-year, and the precious metals sector is shifting to a policy- and reserves-driven phase. This boosts demand for gold miners like Zijin, pushing its stock up as investors expect higher revenue.

    Explains the broader sector tailwind that lifts Zijin's price.

  • 68% profit growth forecast Zijin expects first-half 2026 net profit of about 39.1 billion yuan, up 68% from a year earlier, driven by higher output and selling prices. This strong earnings growth signals the company is making much more money, which supports a higher stock price.

    Directly shows the company's financial performance, a key price driver.

  • Bigger interim dividend Zijin plans to pay an interim dividend of 4.20 yuan per 10 shares, totaling over 11.1 billion yuan, exceeding its earlier proposal. A larger payout returns more cash to shareholders, making the stock more attractive and likely pushing its price up.

    Dividend increases directly enhance shareholder returns and investor appeal.

  • Ethiopia approves Allied Gold deal Ethiopian regulators cleared Zijin's $4 billion acquisition of Allied Gold, with closing expected before July 29. This removes a major hurdle, expands Zijin's gold resources, and reduces uncertainty, which should lift the stock price.

    Regulatory approval is a key step that de-risks a major growth acquisition.

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