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Ratch vs Electricity Generating: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Ratch Group Public Company Limited (RATCH.BK)

Q3 2026
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RATCH pivots to data centers as weak Q2 profit weighs

  • Weak Q2 earnings and downgrades Q2 core profit fell 41% year-on-year on poor Hongsa, Paiton and renewable contributions. Krungsri cut 2026–2028 forecasts by 16% and downgraded to Neutral, expecting Q3 to decline too.

    This is the main negative force that weighed on the stock during the period.

  • Data-center pivot at Ratchaburi RATCH signaled a data-center shift at Ratchaburi, with demand up to 1,400 MW. This drove upgrades, including KGI Outperform with a 43 baht target, and supported the stock.

    This is the key positive new development that drove the stock higher.

  • Growth funding and policy support RATCH set a 20-billion-baht five-year budget and cut its interim dividend to 0.70 baht to fund growth. Thailand's PDP2026, tighter data-center rules favoring the EEC, the Ratchaburi contract renewal to 2034, HKP consolidation, and a potential 500–700 MW Indonesia plant further supported the stock.

    These strategic and regulatory moves reinforced the positive growth narrative.

August 2026
▲2▼1

RATCH pivots to data centers as weak Q2 profit weighs

  • Weak Q2 earnings and downgrades Q2 core profit fell 41% year-on-year on poor Hongsa, Paiton and renewable contributions. Krungsri cut 2026–2028 forecasts by 16% and downgraded to Neutral, expecting Q3 to decline too.

    This is the main negative force that weighed on the stock during the period.

  • Data-center pivot at Ratchaburi RATCH signaled a data-center shift at Ratchaburi, with demand up to 1,400 MW. This drove upgrades, including KGI Outperform with a 43 baht target, and supported the stock.

    This is the key positive new development that drove the stock higher.

  • Growth funding and policy support RATCH set a 20-billion-baht five-year budget and cut its interim dividend to 0.70 baht to fund growth. Thailand's PDP2026, tighter data-center rules favoring the EEC, the Ratchaburi contract renewal to 2034, HKP consolidation, and a potential 500–700 MW Indonesia plant further supported the stock.

    These strategic and regulatory moves reinforced the positive growth narrative.

Latest
▲4

RATCH's data-center pivot and new power plan drive upgrades

  • PDP2026 opens new power investment cycle Thailand's new power plan (PDP2026) may extend gas-fired IPP plants and add solar, wind and direct power deals. Brokers say this creates a fresh investment cycle for power producers, with RATCH named as a beneficiary. New capacity is not yet in profit estimates, so it offers upside.

    A national energy plan that expands power capacity directly supports RATCH's future revenue and growth outlook.

  • Data-center rules push demand to RATCH's sites Thailand suspended 166 data-center projects and is tightening rules, pushing operators to industrial estates like the EEC. Analysts say this favors firms with land, power and utilities ready. RATCH is cited as a likely winner, with its Ratchaburi site and plans to supply power and water to data centers.

    Stricter data-center rules redirect demand toward RATCH's prepared sites, creating a new customer base for its power.

  • Broker upgrades on dividends and growth KGI upgraded RATCH to Buy and raised its target price to 43 baht from 29 baht, expecting a 1.50 baht dividend. CGS International also upgraded to Buy after the Ratchaburi plant contract was renewed to 2034 and HKP is fully consolidated from late 2025. These upgrades support the share price.

    Analyst upgrades and higher target prices directly influence investor sentiment and buying interest in RATCH.

  • RATCH eyes 500–700 MW Indonesia plant and 10bn baht yearly budget RATCH is in talks to bid for a 500–700 MW gas-fired IPP plant in Indonesia and has set an average investment budget of about 10 billion baht per year for pipeline projects, Indonesian expansion and SMR nuclear studies. It also plans to refurbish old IPP plants to supply power and water to data centers.

    New overseas projects and a clear investment budget show RATCH is actively growing, which can lift long-term earnings expectations.

▲3▼1

RATCH pivots to data centers and growth, outweighing weak Q2 profit

  • Q2 profit miss and broker downgrade RATCH fell 4.46% after Krungsri Securities cut 2026-2028 profit forecasts by 16% and downgraded to Neutral. Weak Q2 core profit, down 41% year-on-year, came from poor Hongsa, Paiton and renewable plant contributions, with Q3 also expected to decline.

    This is the main negative force that started the period and explains why the stock was under pressure.

  • Data center pivot with 1,400 MW demand RATCH rose 3% after signaling a shift to data centers at its Ratchaburi site, with customers expressing demand for up to 1,400 megawatts. KGI upgraded to Outperform and raised its target price to 43 baht, seeing higher returns than PPA renewals.

    This is the key new growth story that changed the stock's direction upward.

  • 20 billion baht investment budget and dividend cut for growth RATCH set a 20 billion baht five-year investment budget for renewable expansion and announced a lower interim dividend of 0.70 baht per share to retain cash. Brokers upgraded to Buy, viewing the stock as transitioning from a dividend stock to a growth stock.

    This shows the company is prioritizing growth investments, which supports a higher valuation.

  • Bangkok data center permit review redirects investment to EEC Bangkok plans to temporarily suspend new data center permits for regulatory review, pushing operators to the Eastern Economic Corridor. Analysts say power plant stocks like RATCH will benefit long-term as data centers relocate to areas with better infrastructure.

    This regulatory shift reinforces RATCH's data center opportunity by directing demand to its preferred locations.

Electricity Generating Public Company Limited (EGCO.BK)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

EGCO expands US gas and data centers, but Q2 profit collapses

  • US gas plant acquisition EGCO completed the 45.05% acquisition of New York's 615 MW Astoria Energy II gas plant, adding about 400 million baht in annual US profit from 2027.

    This is a major new investment that expands EGCO's US footprint and future earnings.

  • Asset sales and M&A plans EGCO finished selling its BPU/KLU stakes for a 1–1.4 billion baht Q3 gain and plans ~30 billion baht in H2 spending and 2–3 M&A deals.

    These moves show active portfolio management and provide cash for growth.

  • Data center demand and broker upgrades Data center demand is shifting to the EEC, where EGCO is negotiating a 200–400 MW deal; brokers upgraded the stock, citing US profit, data center upside, and margin relief.

    This highlights new growth opportunities and positive analyst sentiment.

  • Q2 profit collapse and weak outlook Q2 core profit collapsed 95% on tax hits, missing estimates; Yuanta cut its 2026 forecast to 3.337 billion baht, noting weak Yunlin and Paju contributions and that data center profits remain years away.

    This is a major negative event that weighs on near-term earnings and investor confidence.

September 2026
▲3▼1

EGCO closes US gas deal, sells stake, wins broker upgrades

  • Astoria Energy II acquisition completed EGCO closed its 45.05% purchase of New York's 615 MW Astoria Energy II gas plant, adding roughly 400 million baht in annual US profit from 2027 and expanding its overseas footprint.

    This is the period's biggest new event, directly supporting future earnings and the stock's positive re-rating.

  • BPU and KLU stake sale completed EGCO finished selling its 49% stake in BPU and KLU, booking a 1–1.4 billion baht special profit in Q3, which boosts near-term earnings and supports the dividend outlook.

    This completed asset rotation provides a concrete near-term earnings boost and was not previously reported as done.

  • Broker upgrades and buy calls KGI upgraded EGCO to Buy with a 6.50 baht dividend forecast, and five more brokers issued buy calls with targets of 124–187 baht, citing US profit, data centre upside, and margin relief from a stronger baht and lower oil prices.

    Analyst upgrades and target prices directly influence investor sentiment and demand for the stock.

  • Yuanta cuts 2026 profit forecast Yuanta lowered its 2026 profit forecast to 3.337 billion baht, citing weaker contributions from Yunlin wind and Paju ES, and noted that data centre profits remain years away, providing a counterweight to the positive news.

    This is the main negative development in the period, showing that not all analysts share the optimistic view.

Latest
▲3

Brokers turn bullish on EGCO as US gas deal and data centre bets build

  • Brokers raise EGCO targets on Astoria Energy II deal CGSI, Tisco, Krungsri, Finansia and Yuanta all published buy or add calls this week, with target prices from 124 to 187 baht. They expect the 45% US gas plant stake to add about 400 million baht profit a year from 2027, lifting earnings forecasts and drawing income investors.

    This is the main new force pushing EGCO shares up this period.

  • Data centre and PPA renewal upside priced in Finansia says a possible 300MW data centre in Rayong could add about 3 baht per share, and renewing roughly 1GW of expiring power contracts could add about 10 baht. Google's planned 1 billion dollar Thai data centre investment also supports long-term electricity demand.

    New analyst detail shows fresh growth options beyond the US deal.

  • Weaker dollar debt and lower oil costs help margins The baht at about 33.45 per dollar is stronger than July's 34.0, cutting the cost of EGCO's dollar loans, which are 50-60% of total debt. Falling crude oil also points to lower gas costs for power plants, easing pressure on earnings.

    Explains a new, quieter support for EGCO's finances and profits.

  • Q3 profit rebound expected, but 2026 forecast cut Yuanta sees Q3/2026 profit rising on Lao hydropower seasonality, US gas plants and the QPL plant returning to normal, and expects a 3.25 baht second-half dividend. But it cut its 2026 forecast to 3.337 billion baht on weaker Yunlin wind and Paju ES contributions.

    Gives the fair counterweight: near-term recovery but a trimmed 2026 number.

▲4

EGCO locks in US gas growth and dividend upgrade as data center rules tighten

  • EGCO closes US Astoria Energy II acquisition EGCO signed a deal to buy 45.05% of the 615 MW Astoria Energy II gas plant in New York City, with a long-term contract with NYPA. This expands its US growth base and supports future earnings, helping lift the shares.

    This is a major new investment that directly supports EGCO's growth strategy and future profits.

  • KGI upgrades EGCO to Buy on 6.50 baht dividend KGI raised its rating to Buy and target price to 145 baht, expecting a 6.50 baht dividend for 2026. Higher dividend expectations and a stronger outlook can attract income investors and support the share price.

    This is a new analyst upgrade that directly affects investor expectations and the stock's appeal.

  • Tighter data center rules favor EGCO's clean power push Thailand suspended 166 data center projects and is drafting stricter rules that push operators to buy clean power and move to industrial estates. EGCO is seen as a beneficiary, though profits from data centers are still years away.

    This is a new regulatory development that could open long-term demand for EGCO's power, but with limited near-term impact.

  • Ban Pong-Khlong Luang stake sale completed EGCO closed the sale of a 49% stake in BPU and KLU to J-POWER for about 2.8 billion baht, expecting a special profit of 1-1.4 billion baht in Q3 2026. This boosts near-term earnings and funds new investments.

    This is a new completed transaction that directly adds to Q3 profit and supports the growth strategy.

August 2026
▲2▼1

EGCO's H2 growth bets offset weak Q2 profit

  • Q2 core profit collapses on tax hit EGCO's second-quarter core profit fell 95% from the prior quarter to just 45 million baht, far below analyst estimates, because of higher-than-expected tax expenses. First-half core profit was only a quarter of the full-year forecast, so the market may lower profit expectations and pressure the shares near term.

    This is the main negative force on the stock and explains why profit expectations are being cut.

  • 30 billion baht H2 spending and M&A push EGCO plans to spend about 30 billion baht in the second half on gas plants, renewables and asset rotation, and is negotiating 2-3 M&A deals. It also expects a roughly 3 billion baht gain from selling its Ban Pong stake in Q3. This supports future growth and near-term earnings.

    This is the clearest new positive catalyst for growth and cash flow.

  • Data center demand shifts to EEC Bangkok's plan to pause new data center permits is pushing operators toward the Eastern Economic Corridor, where EGCO has land and power assets. Analysts say EGCO and peers will benefit long term as data center power demand grows, and EGCO is in talks for a 200-400 MW data center deal.

    This is a new demand driver that could add long-term power sales for EGCO.

▲2▼1

EGCO's H2 growth bets offset weak Q2 profit

  • Q2 core profit collapses on tax hit EGCO's second-quarter core profit fell 95% from the prior quarter to just 45 million baht, far below analyst estimates, because of higher-than-expected tax expenses. First-half core profit was only a quarter of the full-year forecast, so the market may lower profit expectations and pressure the shares near term.

    This is the main negative force on the stock and explains why profit expectations are being cut.

  • 30 billion baht H2 spending and M&A push EGCO plans to spend about 30 billion baht in the second half on gas plants, renewables and asset rotation, and is negotiating 2-3 M&A deals. It also expects a roughly 3 billion baht gain from selling its Ban Pong stake in Q3. This supports future growth and near-term earnings.

    This is the clearest new positive catalyst for growth and cash flow.

  • Data center demand shifts to EEC Bangkok's plan to pause new data center permits is pushing operators toward the Eastern Economic Corridor, where EGCO has land and power assets. Analysts say EGCO and peers will benefit long term as data center power demand grows, and EGCO is in talks for a 200-400 MW data center deal.

    This is a new demand driver that could add long-term power sales for EGCO.

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