← Star Petroleum Refining overview

Star Petroleum Refining vs PTT Oil and Retail Business: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd (SPRC.BK)

Q3 2026
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SPRC Rallies on High Margins, Then Falls on Diesel Cap and Margin Collapse

  • Middle East Tensions Boost Oil Prices and Refining Margins Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude above $90–$100, lifting refining margins and sending SPRC shares up 8.63% in July. Thai refined oil exports also jumped 120% in July, supporting revenue.

    This was a key positive force driving SPRC's stock higher early in the quarter.

  • Strong Q2 Profit and Attractive Dividend Yield SPRC swung to a 6.9-billion-baht profit in Q2 and declared a 0.50-baht interim dividend. Brokers raised target prices up to 19.70 baht, citing a debt-free balance sheet and an 8–10% dividend yield.

    This fundamental strength attracted income-focused investors and supported the stock price.

  • Government Diesel Price Cap Cuts Profits Thailand's government capped diesel prices, reducing SPRC's Q3 profit by roughly 1.4 billion baht, with a later doubling of the cut to about 994 million baht. This regulatory move directly hurt earnings.

    This was a major negative event that weighed on SPRC's financial performance and stock price.

  • Singapore Refining Margins Collapse and Hidden Costs Emerge Singapore refining margins fell from over $20 to $9.2–10.6, and hidden costs added 3–6 baht per litre. Brokers began warning investors to avoid refinery stocks, pressuring SPRC shares.

    This sharp decline in industry margins and rising costs turned sentiment negative and drove the stock lower.

September 2026
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SPRC: Diesel Export Boost vs. Margin Collapse and Price Caps

  • Diesel export ban may end early Thailand's diesel export ban could be lifted sooner than expected, which would allow SPRC to sell more diesel abroad. Since SPRC produces a high share of diesel, this directly boosts its sales and profit.

    This is a new positive development that could increase SPRC's revenue and earnings.

  • Middle East tensions lift oil prices and refining margins Rising tensions in the Middle East pushed Brent crude toward $100–110 per barrel. Higher oil prices often lift refining margins, which means SPRC earns more from turning crude into fuels like diesel and gasoline.

    This new geopolitical event supports higher refining margins, a key profit driver for SPRC.

  • Broker upgrades on strong dividends TISCO raised its target price to 14.90 baht and CGSI to 16.5 baht, citing SPRC's attractive dividend yield of 8–10%. This makes the stock appealing to income-focused investors.

    New analyst upgrades and dividend appeal can attract buyers and support the stock price.

  • Refining margins collapse and diesel price cuts extended Singapore refining margins fell sharply to $9.2–10.6 from over $20, and the government extended and doubled diesel price cuts, cutting SPRC's profit by about 994 million baht. Brokers now warn to avoid refinery stocks.

    This new negative development directly reduces SPRC's profitability and has led to broker warnings.

Latest
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Government diesel price cuts and peaking refining margins pressure SPRC, but strong oil prices and dividends support

  • Government extends diesel price freeze, cutting SPRC profit by ~994 million baht Thailand's Energy Policy Committee extended the diesel ex-refinery price cut to 31 October 2027, reducing SPRC's profit by about 994 million baht. This government intervention directly lowers the price SPRC gets for its diesel, squeezing earnings and weighing on the stock.

    This is a new, concrete regulatory hit that directly reduces SPRC's profit and is a major negative driver.

  • Diesel price cut doubled to 4 baht, brokers warn to avoid refinery stocks The government increased the diesel ex-refinery price cut to 4.00 baht per litre, effective 16 September to 31 October 2026. SPRC shares fell 5% as brokers like Dao Securities advised avoiding refinery stocks, citing heightened policy risk and weaker Q3 earnings.

    This is a new escalation of the price cut that directly caused a sharp drop in SPRC's stock and negative broker sentiment.

  • CGSI rates SPRC Buy, raises target to 16.5 baht on strong GRM outlook CGS International Thailand recommends buying SPRC and raised its target price to 16.5 baht, lifting 2026-2028 EPS forecasts. It expects SPRC's refining margin to stay solid and sees the recent share price pullback as a buying opportunity, supporting the stock.

    This is a new analyst upgrade with a higher target price, providing a positive catalyst for SPRC's stock.

  • Broker says refining margin has peaked, but SPRC rated hold on attractive dividends Bualuang Securities says the Singapore refining margin has passed its peak and will fall to $8 per barrel in 2027. It recommends selling other refiners but maintains a hold on SPRC with a 14.60 baht target, citing attractive dividends of 8-10% in 2026.

    This is a new warning that the key profit driver (refining margin) is peaking, which is a negative, but SPRC's hold rating and dividend appeal provide some support.

▲3

SPRC lifted by diesel export restart, Middle East oil spike, broker upgrades

  • Diesel export ban may end early, boosting SPRC's high diesel yield Thailand's energy minister proposed lifting the diesel export ban by early September, months sooner than expected. SPRC makes a lot of diesel (37% of output), so it can sell more abroad at better prices, adding to 2026 earnings and supporting the stock.

    This is a new, concrete policy change that directly raises SPRC's sales and profit outlook.

  • Middle East conflict pushes Brent crude toward $100-$110, lifting refining margins Renewed US-Iran fighting and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions have pushed Brent crude to near $100-$110 a barrel. Higher crude prices usually widen the profit margin for refiners like SPRC, and analysts name it a top pick to benefit from tight energy supply.

    This is the main new force behind SPRC's move, as multiple fresh reports tie oil's surge to refinery stock gains.

  • TISCO raises SPRC target to 14.90 baht, sees 8% dividend yield TISCO turned positive on SPRC after strong first-half results, lifting 2026-2028 earnings forecasts by 18-29% and its fair value to 14.90 baht. It also raised the 2026 dividend estimate to 1.55 baht per share, about an 8% yield, calling SPRC the group's most attractive dividend play.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with higher earnings and dividend estimates directly supports the share price.

  • Singapore refining margin falls to $9.2-$10.6, a real drag Even as oil prices rise, the key Singapore refining margin has dropped sharply to about $9.2-$10.6 a barrel from over $20 earlier. That means SPRC earns less per barrel processed, a genuine counterweight to the bullish oil-price and export news.

    It is the main negative force this period and gives a fair, balanced picture of what is driving SPRC.

August 2026
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SPRC swings to profit, but diesel price caps and margin dip weigh

  • Q2 profit swing and interim dividend SPRC reported a Q2 net profit of 6.9 billion baht, a big turnaround from a loss, and paid an interim dividend of 0.50 baht per share. This shows the company is generating cash and rewarding shareholders.

    This is a major new financial result that directly boosts investor confidence and supports the stock price.

  • Broker upgrades and strong export demand Morgan Stanley raised its SPRC target price to 19.70 baht, citing strong 2026 profit forecasts. Thai refined oil exports jumped 120% in July, adding real demand support for SPRC's products.

    Analyst upgrades and surging exports are new positive catalysts that can drive the stock higher.

  • Diesel price cap to cut Q3 profit The government's 2.40 baht per litre diesel price cut is expected to reduce Q3 profit by about 1.4 billion baht. This directly squeezes SPRC's refining margin and limits profit growth.

    This is a new government action that threatens near-term earnings and acts as a drag on the stock.

  • Hidden costs and falling refining margins Hidden costs like crude premiums, freight, and insurance add 3–6 baht per litre, while Singapore refining margins slipped 7% week-on-week to $20.10. These pressures weigh on refinery stocks.

    These new cost and margin pressures offset positive factors and could keep the stock under pressure.

▲2▼1

Refining margins stay high, but diesel price cut and margin dip are real drags

  • Foreign brokers hike SPRC targets on tight global refining supply Morgan Stanley raised its SPRC target to 19.70 baht from 12.90, and KKPS lifted its 2026 Singapore refining margin forecast to $19.60 a barrel, raising SPRC's target 64% to 14.80 baht. Tight supply from Middle East and Russia refinery damage keeps margins high, pushing the stock up.

    This is the main new force lifting SPRC's price this period.

  • Government diesel price cut and falling margins squeeze profits The government approved a 2.40 baht per litre cut in ex-refinery diesel prices for 31 days, expected to hit SPRC's Q3 net profit by about 1.4 billion baht. Singapore refining margins also fell 7% week-on-week to $20.10, pressuring refinery stocks.

    This is the main counterweight that can pull SPRC's price down.

  • Thai refined oil exports boom, adding demand support July exports surged 21.6% year-on-year, with refined oil exports expanding 120%, benefiting SPRC and peers. Strong export demand for refined products supports refinery earnings and the stock.

    Shows a new demand-side driver for SPRC's products.

▲3▼1

SPRC swings to profit, pays dividend, as oil supply fears lift refining margins

  • SPRC swings to Q2 profit and pays interim dividend SPRC reported a second-quarter net profit of 6.9 billion baht, a big turnaround from a loss a year earlier, and will pay an interim dividend of 0.50 baht per share. This shows the company is generating strong cash and rewards shareholders, which supports the share price.

    This is the most concrete new event that directly affects SPRC's value and investor returns.

  • Middle East tensions keep oil supply tight, boosting refining margins Iran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the US meets conditions, and Brent crude jumped 5% on stalled talks. Tight oil supply keeps crude prices high, which widens the profit margin for refiners like SPRC, pushing its shares up.

    This geopolitical force is the main driver behind higher refining margins and SPRC's profit surge.

  • Brokers raise target prices and profit forecasts on strong outlook Three brokers recommend buying SPRC with target prices up to 11.50 baht, citing higher refining margins and tight oil supply. They forecast 2026 profit to jump over 300% and see a high dividend payout, which attracts investors and lifts the stock.

    Analyst upgrades reflect and reinforce the positive earnings outlook, influencing investor sentiment and demand for the stock.

  • Hidden costs and government measures could squeeze margins Refiners face rising hidden costs like crude premiums, freight, and insurance, adding up to 3-6 baht per litre. Government measures to cap diesel prices and oil inventory losses also threaten profits, acting as a counterweight to the positive drivers.

    This is the main risk that could limit SPRC's profit growth and share price gains, providing a fair balance to the positive news.

July 2026
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SPRC jumps on Middle East oil supply fears, but government caps refining margins

  • Middle East tensions push oil above $90, boosting refining margins Iran's attacks on US bases and the US re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened oil supply, sending Brent above $90. This lifts refining margins for SPRC, as higher crude prices and product spreads mean more profit per barrel. SPRC shares jumped 8.63% on July 24, leading the refinery group.

    This is the main force driving SPRC's price up this period.

  • Government cuts diesel price, squeezing refinery margins Thailand's Energy Policy Committee lowered the ex-refinery diesel price by 2.40 baht per litre from July 24 to August 15, using surplus refining profits to fund the discount. This directly reduces SPRC's refining margin per barrel, acting as a cap on profits and share price gains.

    This is a new regulatory headwind that limits SPRC's upside.

  • Analyst raises SPRC target price on strong earnings outlook Krungsri Securities raised its SPRC target price to 11.50 baht, citing prolonged US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz closure. It expects 2026 profit to jump 303% to 14.87 billion baht. SPRC is debt-free and dividend yield is seen rising 15% over five years.

    This shows analyst confidence in SPRC's earnings power, supporting the stock.

  • Q2 energy profits seen down 26.6% year-on-year CGS International forecasts Thai energy sector Q2 2026 profits to fall 26.6% year-on-year due to weaker refining margins. However, SPRC is among stocks with the highest year-on-year profit growth (up 666.8%) from a low base last year, showing recovery potential.

    This provides a counterweight: past weak margins but strong rebound expected.

▲2▼1

SPRC jumps on Middle East oil supply fears, but government caps refining margins

  • Middle East tensions push oil above $90, boosting refining margins Iran's attacks on US bases and the US re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened oil supply, sending Brent above $90. This lifts refining margins for SPRC, as higher crude prices and product spreads mean more profit per barrel. SPRC shares jumped 8.63% on July 24, leading the refinery group.

    This is the main force driving SPRC's price up this period.

  • Government cuts diesel price, squeezing refinery margins Thailand's Energy Policy Committee lowered the ex-refinery diesel price by 2.40 baht per litre from July 24 to August 15, using surplus refining profits to fund the discount. This directly reduces SPRC's refining margin per barrel, acting as a cap on profits and share price gains.

    This is a new regulatory headwind that limits SPRC's upside.

  • Analyst raises SPRC target price on strong earnings outlook Krungsri Securities raised its SPRC target price to 11.50 baht, citing prolonged US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz closure. It expects 2026 profit to jump 303% to 14.87 billion baht. SPRC is debt-free and dividend yield is seen rising 15% over five years.

    This shows analyst confidence in SPRC's earnings power, supporting the stock.

  • Q2 energy profits seen down 26.6% year-on-year CGS International forecasts Thai energy sector Q2 2026 profits to fall 26.6% year-on-year due to weaker refining margins. However, SPRC is among stocks with the highest year-on-year profit growth (up 666.8%) from a low base last year, showing recovery potential.

    This provides a counterweight: past weak margins but strong rebound expected.

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (OR.BK)

Q3 2026
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OR's Q2 loss and forecast cuts offset Café Amazon and EV growth

  • Q2 2026 net loss and analyst downgrades OR reported a worse-than-expected Q2 2026 net loss of 1.775 billion baht due to oil stock losses, inventory write-downs, and weaker fuel volumes and margins. Analysts cut 2026 profit forecasts by 30–32% and lowered target prices.

    This is the main negative force that dragged on the stock during the period.

  • Café Amazon record and non-fuel expansion Café Amazon hit a record 117 million cups, boosting non-fuel income. OR also partnered with Minor Food to open 150 restaurants by 2030, advancing subsidiary restructuring to cut costs.

    These initiatives show growth in non-fuel segments and cost savings, supporting future earnings.

  • EV charging and mobility portfolio shift OR joined a national EV charging roaming study and plans EVs at 10% of its Mobility portfolio, positioning for the energy transition.

    This strategic move addresses long-term demand shifts and could open new revenue streams.

  • Q3 recovery hopes vs. fuel price risks Management guides a Q3 recovery, and Morgan Stanley raised its target to 14.60 baht, betting the loss marked the trough. However, fuel price hikes risk reducing demand.

    This captures the conflicting signals: optimism about a rebound versus ongoing demand risks.

August 2026
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OR's Q2 loss deepens, but recovery bets and Café Amazon record emerge

  • Worse-than-expected Q2 loss OR reported a Q2 2026 net loss of 1.775 billion baht, reversing last year's profit, hit by oil stock losses, inventory write-downs, and weaker fuel volumes and margins. Analysts cut 2026 profit forecasts by 30–32% and lowered target prices.

    This is the main negative event that drove the stock down during the period.

  • Café Amazon record and lifestyle growth Café Amazon hit a record 117 million cups, and the lifestyle segment grew, showing non-fuel businesses are gaining traction and helping offset weak fuel results.

    This positive operational highlight supports the bull case and is new information.

  • EV charging roaming study and Mobility shift OR joined a national EV charging roaming study and plans EVs at 10% of its Mobility portfolio, signaling a strategic pivot toward electric vehicles and future growth.

    This new strategic move could drive long-term value and is not in earlier reports.

  • Management guides Q3 recovery; Morgan Stanley raises target Management expects a Q3 recovery, and Morgan Stanley raised its target to 14.60 baht, suggesting some analysts see the Q2 loss as the trough and are betting on a rebound.

    This forward-looking guidance and analyst upgrade provide a positive counterweight to the loss.

Latest
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OR sees Q3 recovery after Q2 trough, expands EV and food, foreign broker raises target

  • OR guides Q3 recovery after Q2 trough OR expects Q3 earnings to recover to normal after Q2's low point, with inventory back to normal and oil sales volumes and margins improving. This signals the worst is over, supporting a rebound in profit and the stock price.

    This is the key new company-specific guidance that directly addresses the earnings outlook and why the stock may move up.

  • OR pushes EV to 10% of Mobility portfolio OR plans to grow its electric vehicle business to 10% of its Mobility portfolio over 5-6 years, part of a portfolio shift. This long-term growth angle could attract investors looking beyond the oil business.

    It shows a new strategic direction that may drive future value and is a fresh development this period.

  • Food partnership with Minor International expands OR is partnering with Minor International to open 150 branches of The Pizza Company, Dairy Queen, and others in PTT stations by 2030. This grows OR's non-fuel lifestyle income, which helps offset oil earnings swings.

    It is a concrete expansion of OR's lifestyle business, a bright spot that supports long-term earnings.

  • Morgan Stanley raises OR target price Morgan Stanley lifted its OR target to 14.60 baht from 14.30 baht, part of a broader energy sector upgrade. A higher target from a major foreign broker can boost investor confidence and draw buyers.

    It is a fresh analyst action that directly influences sentiment and potential price movement.

▲2▼2

OR's Q2 loss confirmed; EV roaming hub study offers new growth angle

  • Q2 2026 loss confirmed and worse than expected OR reported a Q2 2026 net loss of 1.775 billion baht, swinging from a 2.23 billion baht profit a year earlier. The loss was driven by oil stock losses and inventory write-downs as oil prices fell, plus lower fuel sales volumes and thinner margins. This is a real earnings hit that weighs on the stock.

    This is the period's biggest new event and directly explains the negative pressure on OR's price.

  • Analysts cut forecasts and target prices after the miss The loss was deeper than analysts expected, with normalized loss around 2.1 billion baht. Brokers cut 2026 profit forecasts by 30-32% and lowered target prices. Lower expected future profits make the stock less attractive in the near term, though some see Q2 as the low point and a buying opportunity.

    Analyst downgrades and target price cuts are a key channel through which the earnings miss affects the share price.

  • EV roaming hub study could boost charging demand OR joined a government-led study to create a national EV charging roaming platform. If it goes ahead, this would make it easier for drivers to use OR's charging stations, potentially increasing customer traffic and supporting OR's push into electric vehicle services over the long term.

    This is a new positive development that could support future growth, balancing the negative earnings news.

  • Lifestyle business remains a bright spot Café Amazon sold a record 117 million cups in Q2, up 4.5% year-on-year, and the lifestyle segment grew revenue and sales volume. This non-fuel business provides steady income and helps offset weakness in the oil business, supporting the long-term investment case.

    It is a genuine counterweight to the oil-driven loss and shows where OR's growth is coming from.

July 2026
▲3▼1

OR expands food, but Q2 loss and fuel price swings dominate

  • Food expansion with Minor OR partners with Minor Food to open 150 restaurants at PTT stations by 2030, investing 2 billion baht. This boosts non-fuel income and station traffic, supporting long-term growth.

    New partnership adds a growth driver for OR's lifestyle business.

  • Q2 2026 net loss expected Krungsri Securities expects OR to report a 1.62 billion baht net loss in Q2 2026, swinging from profit, due to oil stock losses and lower sales volume. This is a negative near-term earnings shock.

    Directly impacts OR's profitability and investor sentiment.

  • Fuel price hike OR raised retail fuel prices by 0.90 baht per litre due to Middle East tensions. Higher prices can boost revenue per litre, but may also reduce demand if sustained.

    Immediate pricing action affects OR's revenue and margins.

  • Subsidiary restructuring OR's board approved dissolving two indirect subsidiaries in Laos and Vietnam, cutting costs and streamlining operations. This supports efficiency but has limited near-term impact.

    Shows cost-cutting efforts that could improve future profitability.

▲3▼1

OR expands food, but Q2 loss and fuel price swings dominate

  • Food expansion with Minor OR partners with Minor Food to open 150 restaurants at PTT stations by 2030, investing 2 billion baht. This boosts non-fuel income and station traffic, supporting long-term growth.

    New partnership adds a growth driver for OR's lifestyle business.

  • Q2 2026 net loss expected Krungsri Securities expects OR to report a 1.62 billion baht net loss in Q2 2026, swinging from profit, due to oil stock losses and lower sales volume. This is a negative near-term earnings shock.

    Directly impacts OR's profitability and investor sentiment.

  • Fuel price hike OR raised retail fuel prices by 0.90 baht per litre due to Middle East tensions. Higher prices can boost revenue per litre, but may also reduce demand if sustained.

    Immediate pricing action affects OR's revenue and margins.

  • Subsidiary restructuring OR's board approved dissolving two indirect subsidiaries in Laos and Vietnam, cutting costs and streamlining operations. This supports efficiency but has limited near-term impact.

    Shows cost-cutting efforts that could improve future profitability.

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