TMC the metals vs BHP: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

TMC the metals company Inc (TMC)

Q3 20265 Jul – 13 Aug 2026

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TMC's regulatory path advances, but losses and analyst caution weigh

Tribunal orders ISA to protect TMC subsidiaries' due process An international tribunal unanimously ordered the International Seabed Authority to respect the due process rights of TMC's subsidiaries NORI and TOML. This reduces the risk that regulatory delays or unfair treatment could block TMC's deep-sea mining plans, making the stock less risky for investors.
This is a new, concrete legal win that directly lowers regulatory risk, a key driver of TMC's value.
NOAA advances TMC's mining application to certification stage NOAA moved TMC's consolidated application into the certification stage, with a licensing decision expected by early 2027. TMC and partner Allseas also signed a commercial agreement for a nodule collection system. This progress brings commercial mining closer, supporting the stock's long-term potential.
This is a new operational and regulatory milestone that moves TMC closer to actual mining, a major positive catalyst.
Analyst recommends selling TMC amid regulatory uncertainty An analyst at The Motley Fool recommended selling TMC, citing the International Seabed Authority's failure to finalize exploitation regulations. While a recent tribunal order removed some uncertainty, TMC still needs formal approval for commercial extraction. This adds selling pressure and highlights the stock's high risk.
This is a new analyst sell call that directly influences investor sentiment and TMC's price.
TMC reports $60.1 million Q2 net loss TMC reported a net loss of $60.1 million for Q2 2026, though narrower than last year's $74.3 million. Exploration expenses jumped to $56.1 million due to a $37.2 million Allseas settlement. The company has $98.7 million cash and no debt, but ongoing losses raise funding concerns.
This is a new financial report showing continued losses and high spending, which can pressure the stock.

July 20265 Jul – 13 Aug 2026

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TMC's regulatory path advances, but losses and analyst caution weigh

Tribunal orders ISA to protect TMC subsidiaries' due process An international tribunal unanimously ordered the International Seabed Authority to respect the due process rights of TMC's subsidiaries NORI and TOML. This reduces the risk that regulatory delays or unfair treatment could block TMC's deep-sea mining plans, making the stock less risky for investors.
This is a new, concrete legal win that directly lowers regulatory risk, a key driver of TMC's value.
NOAA advances TMC's mining application to certification stage NOAA moved TMC's consolidated application into the certification stage, with a licensing decision expected by early 2027. TMC and partner Allseas also signed a commercial agreement for a nodule collection system. This progress brings commercial mining closer, supporting the stock's long-term potential.
This is a new operational and regulatory milestone that moves TMC closer to actual mining, a major positive catalyst.
Analyst recommends selling TMC amid regulatory uncertainty An analyst at The Motley Fool recommended selling TMC, citing the International Seabed Authority's failure to finalize exploitation regulations. While a recent tribunal order removed some uncertainty, TMC still needs formal approval for commercial extraction. This adds selling pressure and highlights the stock's high risk.
This is a new analyst sell call that directly influences investor sentiment and TMC's price.
TMC reports $60.1 million Q2 net loss TMC reported a net loss of $60.1 million for Q2 2026, though narrower than last year's $74.3 million. Exploration expenses jumped to $56.1 million due to a $37.2 million Allseas settlement. The company has $98.7 million cash and no debt, but ongoing losses raise funding concerns.
This is a new financial report showing continued losses and high spending, which can pressure the stock.

Latest5 Jul – 13 Aug 2026

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TMC's regulatory path advances, but losses and analyst caution weigh

Tribunal orders ISA to protect TMC subsidiaries' due process An international tribunal unanimously ordered the International Seabed Authority to respect the due process rights of TMC's subsidiaries NORI and TOML. This reduces the risk that regulatory delays or unfair treatment could block TMC's deep-sea mining plans, making the stock less risky for investors.
This is a new, concrete legal win that directly lowers regulatory risk, a key driver of TMC's value.
NOAA advances TMC's mining application to certification stage NOAA moved TMC's consolidated application into the certification stage, with a licensing decision expected by early 2027. TMC and partner Allseas also signed a commercial agreement for a nodule collection system. This progress brings commercial mining closer, supporting the stock's long-term potential.
This is a new operational and regulatory milestone that moves TMC closer to actual mining, a major positive catalyst.
Analyst recommends selling TMC amid regulatory uncertainty An analyst at The Motley Fool recommended selling TMC, citing the International Seabed Authority's failure to finalize exploitation regulations. While a recent tribunal order removed some uncertainty, TMC still needs formal approval for commercial extraction. This adds selling pressure and highlights the stock's high risk.
This is a new analyst sell call that directly influences investor sentiment and TMC's price.
TMC reports $60.1 million Q2 net loss TMC reported a net loss of $60.1 million for Q2 2026, though narrower than last year's $74.3 million. Exploration expenses jumped to $56.1 million due to a $37.2 million Allseas settlement. The company has $98.7 million cash and no debt, but ongoing losses raise funding concerns.
This is a new financial report showing continued losses and high spending, which can pressure the stock.

Q2 202617 Jun – 2 Jul 2026

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TMC Advances U.S. Deep-Sea Mining Permits, But Remains Pre-Revenue

NOAA Certification Advances U.S. Exploration License TMC's U.S. subsidiary received formal NOAA certification for its USA B exploration license covering 122,000 square kilometers. This regulatory step moves the company closer to harvesting deep-sea nodules, potentially bypassing international hurdles. For a pre-revenue firm, such progress supports the stock by raising the odds of future production.
This is a concrete regulatory milestone that directly affects TMC's path to revenue.
U.S. Government Support Could Accelerate Permits The Trump administration's push for mineral self-reliance and Defense Department interest in critical minerals may lead to federal grants or fast-tracked approvals. This reduces regulatory risk and could speed up TMC's timeline, making the stock more attractive to investors betting on domestic supply.
Government backing is a key catalyst that can de-risk TMC's regulatory and funding challenges.
Competition Highlights TMC's Pre-Revenue Status Analysts note that MP Materials is already profitable with an operating U.S. mine, while TMC is years away from full operations and unprofitable. This contrast may steer investors toward safer rare-earth plays, pressuring TMC's stock as it competes for capital in a high-risk sector.
Competitive positioning directly influences investor sentiment and capital flows into TMC.
Retail Enthusiasm and Long-Term Demand Backdrop Retail investors are touting TMC as a breakout stock, and the IEA projects rare-earth demand to rise 50-60% by 2040. While this boosts short-term sentiment, TMC remains pre-revenue with execution risks, so the impact is speculative and may not reflect fundamentals.
Retail hype and demand trends can drive price in the near term, but the speculative nature warrants caution.

June 202617 Jun – 2 Jul 2026

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TMC Advances U.S. Deep-Sea Mining Permits, But Remains Pre-Revenue

NOAA Certification Advances U.S. Exploration License TMC's U.S. subsidiary received formal NOAA certification for its USA B exploration license covering 122,000 square kilometers. This regulatory step moves the company closer to harvesting deep-sea nodules, potentially bypassing international hurdles. For a pre-revenue firm, such progress supports the stock by raising the odds of future production.
This is a concrete regulatory milestone that directly affects TMC's path to revenue.
U.S. Government Support Could Accelerate Permits The Trump administration's push for mineral self-reliance and Defense Department interest in critical minerals may lead to federal grants or fast-tracked approvals. This reduces regulatory risk and could speed up TMC's timeline, making the stock more attractive to investors betting on domestic supply.
Government backing is a key catalyst that can de-risk TMC's regulatory and funding challenges.
Competition Highlights TMC's Pre-Revenue Status Analysts note that MP Materials is already profitable with an operating U.S. mine, while TMC is years away from full operations and unprofitable. This contrast may steer investors toward safer rare-earth plays, pressuring TMC's stock as it competes for capital in a high-risk sector.
Competitive positioning directly influences investor sentiment and capital flows into TMC.
Retail Enthusiasm and Long-Term Demand Backdrop Retail investors are touting TMC as a breakout stock, and the IEA projects rare-earth demand to rise 50-60% by 2040. While this boosts short-term sentiment, TMC remains pre-revenue with execution risks, so the impact is speculative and may not reflect fundamentals.
Retail hype and demand trends can drive price in the near term, but the speculative nature warrants caution.

17 Jun – 2 Jul 2026

▲3▼1

TMC Advances U.S. Deep-Sea Mining Permits, But Remains Pre-Revenue

NOAA Certification Advances U.S. Exploration License TMC's U.S. subsidiary received formal NOAA certification for its USA B exploration license covering 122,000 square kilometers. This regulatory step moves the company closer to harvesting deep-sea nodules, potentially bypassing international hurdles. For a pre-revenue firm, such progress supports the stock by raising the odds of future production.
This is a concrete regulatory milestone that directly affects TMC's path to revenue.
U.S. Government Support Could Accelerate Permits The Trump administration's push for mineral self-reliance and Defense Department interest in critical minerals may lead to federal grants or fast-tracked approvals. This reduces regulatory risk and could speed up TMC's timeline, making the stock more attractive to investors betting on domestic supply.
Government backing is a key catalyst that can de-risk TMC's regulatory and funding challenges.
Competition Highlights TMC's Pre-Revenue Status Analysts note that MP Materials is already profitable with an operating U.S. mine, while TMC is years away from full operations and unprofitable. This contrast may steer investors toward safer rare-earth plays, pressuring TMC's stock as it competes for capital in a high-risk sector.
Competitive positioning directly influences investor sentiment and capital flows into TMC.
Retail Enthusiasm and Long-Term Demand Backdrop Retail investors are touting TMC as a breakout stock, and the IEA projects rare-earth demand to rise 50-60% by 2040. While this boosts short-term sentiment, TMC remains pre-revenue with execution risks, so the impact is speculative and may not reflect fundamentals.
Retail hype and demand trends can drive price in the near term, but the speculative nature warrants caution.

BHP Group Limited (BHP.LSE)

Q3 202628 Jun – 25 Sep 2026

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Record earnings and growth projects offset by copper guidance cut and Jansen cost blowout

Record FY earnings and highest dividend in four years BHP reported record full-year earnings with profit up 30% to $13.2bn and copper EBITDA of $18.2bn, funding its highest dividend in four years. This rewarded shareholders and showcased strong cash generation.
This is a major positive financial result that directly supports the share price and investor returns.
Copper output miss and 2027 guidance warning Copper production missed expectations and 2027 guidance warned of up to a 15.5% drop due to lower Escondida grades. This raises concerns about future earnings from BHP's key profit driver.
This is a new negative development that directly impacts future revenue and investor confidence.
Jansen potash third cost blowout Jansen potash saw a third cost blowout, adding $2.3bn and lifting total investment to $6.9bn. This further erodes confidence in the project's returns and capital discipline.
This is a new negative event that adds to previous concerns about the Jansen project's cost overruns.
Growth projects advance but operational risks persist Escondida expansion permit and Ministers North iron ore approval advanced long-term growth, aided by AI data-center demand. However, a fatal accident suspended Escondida and Port Hedland strike risk persisted after a costly stoppage.
This captures both the positive long-term growth initiatives and the negative operational disruptions that affected the quarter.

August 202628 Jun – 25 Sep 2026

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Copper strength and record dividend offset by Jansen cost blowout and Escondida fatality

Record FY earnings and highest dividend in four years BHP reported record full-year earnings, a 30% profit rise to $13.2bn, and $18.2bn copper EBITDA, funding its highest dividend in four years. This rewards shareholders and signals strong cash generation.
This is the core positive financial result that drove the stock and is new to this period.
Heavy investment in Escondida and Copper South Australia BHP is investing heavily in Escondida and Copper South Australia, supported by AI data-center demand and potential uranium expansion via NexGen. These moves position BHP for long-term copper growth.
This highlights the growth drivers behind BHP's copper-led strategy, new to this period.
Jansen potash third cost blowout The Jansen potash project suffered a third cost blowout, with a $2.3bn charge lifting total investment to $6.9bn. This raises concerns about capital discipline and project execution.
This is a major negative event that weighed on sentiment and is new to this period.
Fatal accident suspends Escondida, Port Hedland strike risk persists A fatal accident suspended Escondida, cutting output and tightening supply, while Port Hedland strike risk persists after a costly 48-hour stoppage. These operational setbacks threaten near-term production.
These are key negative operational risks that emerged this period and affect BHP's output.

Latest28 Jun – 25 Sep 2026

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BHP's copper growth story meets rising costs and a fatal mine halt

Jansen potash cost blowout BHP warned of a $2.3 billion charge and cost overrun at its Jansen potash project, lifting total investment to $6.9 billion from $4.9 billion. This is the third cost miss, hurting the plan to diversify beyond copper and iron ore and weighing on the shares.
A large, company-specific write-down directly hits BHP's earnings and credibility.
AI data centers drive copper demand BHP was named among copper producers set to benefit as AI data centers spend heavily on infrastructure. An AI data center uses about ten times more copper than a normal one, and BHP is executing well at Escondida and Copper South Australia, supporting future demand for its copper.
A structural demand driver that underpins BHP's copper growth outlook.
NexGen uranium financing talks NexGen is in talks with BHP for a potential $1 billion financing and equity stake in its Rook I uranium project. BHP's record FY2026 results, with $33 billion EBITDA and $9.8 billion free cash flow, give it the financial strength to invest in new energy minerals.
Shows BHP using its strong cash flow to expand into future-facing commodities.
Escondida halt and Baowu stake talks A fatal accident forced a full suspension at Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, cutting BHP's output and tightening global supply. Separately, BHP is in early talks to sell a 15-25% stake in its Jimblebar iron ore mine to China Baowu, a possible capital boost but with uncertain outcome.
Two major events: one near-term negative for production, one uncertain for iron ore.

31 Jul – 18 Aug 2026

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Copper Profit Surge and Dividend Outweigh Port Strike Risk

Record copper-driven earnings and dividend BHP's full-year profit jumped 30% to $13.2 billion as copper overtook iron ore as the top earner, with record copper EBITDA of $18.2 billion. The company declared its highest dividend in four years, $1.72 per share, and cut net debt to $8.7 billion. This boosts investor confidence and supports the share price.
This is the biggest new event, directly showing BHP's financial strength and cash returns to shareholders.
Billions committed to copper growth BHP approved about $500 million for a new concentrator at Chile's Escondida mine and plans to spend roughly $11 billion annually on capital projects, with over 55% of growth spending targeting copper. It sees a potential copper supply deficit of 10 million tonnes a year, positioning BHP for long-term demand growth.
This shows BHP's strategic shift toward copper, a key driver of future earnings and valuation.
Port Hedland strike risk persists BHP and unions failed to reach a wage deal at its Port Hedland iron ore export hub, with negotiations resuming August 25. A 48-hour strike earlier this month cost up to $141 million. While the CEO downplays the impact, ongoing disruption could hurt iron ore shipments and add costs.
This is a live risk to BHP's iron ore supply and earnings, with a real financial impact already felt.
Resolution Copper and uranium talks advance Resolution Copper awarded $110 million in contracts for its Arizona mine, where BHP owns 45%, moving the project closer to development. Separately, BHP is in talks with NexGen Energy over its Rook I uranium project, and BHP's incoming CEO plans to review uranium, hinting at future growth options.
These are new project developments that could add future copper and uranium production, supporting long-term growth.

July 202628 Jun – 17 Jul 2026

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BHP's copper outlook cut and strikes overshadow growth approvals

Copper output miss and weak outlook BHP's quarterly copper output fell short and the company warned 2027 production could drop up to 15.5% due to lower grades at Escondida. Copper is a key profit driver, so this hurts future earnings and the shares fell 2.3%.
This is the main negative force this period, directly hitting BHP's earnings outlook and share price.
Strikes at Port Hedland and power grid Workers at BHP's Port Hedland iron ore port held an 8-hour strike, and power grid maintenance workers voted to strike. These actions threaten iron ore shipments and mine power supply, creating uncertainty that weighs on the stock.
Labor disruptions are a new and ongoing risk that could reduce output and increase costs, pressuring the share price.
Escondida expansion permit and Ministers North approval BHP secured an environmental permit for its Escondida copper expansion in Chile and approved a $900 million iron ore project in Australia. These support long-term production growth, but benefits are years away and don't offset near-term output cuts.
These are major growth investments that underpin BHP's future volumes, though they don't fix current production issues.
Non-core asset sales and electrification trial BHP is selling its San Manuel copper property for a 30% stake in Faraday Copper and trialing battery-electric haul trucks. These moves streamline the portfolio and advance decarbonization, but are small relative to core operations.
They show BHP's focus on efficiency and future technology, but are minor compared to the copper and strike news.

28 Jun – 17 Jul 2026

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BHP's copper outlook cut and strikes overshadow growth approvals

Copper output miss and weak outlook BHP's quarterly copper output fell short and the company warned 2027 production could drop up to 15.5% due to lower grades at Escondida. Copper is a key profit driver, so this hurts future earnings and the shares fell 2.3%.
This is the main negative force this period, directly hitting BHP's earnings outlook and share price.
Strikes at Port Hedland and power grid Workers at BHP's Port Hedland iron ore port held an 8-hour strike, and power grid maintenance workers voted to strike. These actions threaten iron ore shipments and mine power supply, creating uncertainty that weighs on the stock.
Labor disruptions are a new and ongoing risk that could reduce output and increase costs, pressuring the share price.
Escondida expansion permit and Ministers North approval BHP secured an environmental permit for its Escondida copper expansion in Chile and approved a $900 million iron ore project in Australia. These support long-term production growth, but benefits are years away and don't offset near-term output cuts.
These are major growth investments that underpin BHP's future volumes, though they don't fix current production issues.
Non-core asset sales and electrification trial BHP is selling its San Manuel copper property for a 30% stake in Faraday Copper and trialing battery-electric haul trucks. These moves streamline the portfolio and advance decarbonization, but are small relative to core operations.
They show BHP's focus on efficiency and future technology, but are minor compared to the copper and strike news.

Q2 202618 Jun – 26 Jun 2026

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BHP's Jansen potash write-down and cost blowout hit shares

Jansen potash write-down and cost blowout BHP announced a $2.3 billion write-down on its Jansen potash mine in Canada and raised the cost estimate for stage two to $6.9 billion, with production delayed to late 2031. Shares fell 5.6% in Sydney and 4.3% in London. This is a major setback for a key growth project, hurting investor confidence and near-term returns.
This is the biggest new event driving BHP's price down this period.
Chile power transmission lines sale BHP is preparing to sell its Chilean power transmission lines for about $1.5 billion, part of a larger asset sale program that has already exceeded $6 billion. This supports the balance sheet and funds growth, especially copper. Selling non-core assets is generally positive for the stock.
This is a new positive development that shows BHP's focus on core assets and cash generation.
Potash rail transport deal with CN Canadian National Railway secured a four-year deal to transport potash from BHP's Jansen mine to Vancouver ports. This strengthens supply chain reliability for future potash exports, supporting the project's long-term viability. It is a small but positive step for BHP's potash ambitions.
This new deal reduces logistical risk for Jansen, partially offsetting the negative write-down news.
Executive leadership changes BHP announced updates to its executive leadership team, which created some uncertainty and contributed to a more than 1% drop in its shares on June 26. Leadership changes can signal strategic shifts or internal challenges, making investors cautious.
This is a new event that adds to negative sentiment, though its impact is smaller than the Jansen write-down.

June 202618 Jun – 26 Jun 2026

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BHP's Jansen potash write-down and cost blowout hit shares

Jansen potash write-down and cost blowout BHP announced a $2.3 billion write-down on its Jansen potash mine in Canada and raised the cost estimate for stage two to $6.9 billion, with production delayed to late 2031. Shares fell 5.6% in Sydney and 4.3% in London. This is a major setback for a key growth project, hurting investor confidence and near-term returns.
This is the biggest new event driving BHP's price down this period.
Chile power transmission lines sale BHP is preparing to sell its Chilean power transmission lines for about $1.5 billion, part of a larger asset sale program that has already exceeded $6 billion. This supports the balance sheet and funds growth, especially copper. Selling non-core assets is generally positive for the stock.
This is a new positive development that shows BHP's focus on core assets and cash generation.
Potash rail transport deal with CN Canadian National Railway secured a four-year deal to transport potash from BHP's Jansen mine to Vancouver ports. This strengthens supply chain reliability for future potash exports, supporting the project's long-term viability. It is a small but positive step for BHP's potash ambitions.
This new deal reduces logistical risk for Jansen, partially offsetting the negative write-down news.
Executive leadership changes BHP announced updates to its executive leadership team, which created some uncertainty and contributed to a more than 1% drop in its shares on June 26. Leadership changes can signal strategic shifts or internal challenges, making investors cautious.
This is a new event that adds to negative sentiment, though its impact is smaller than the Jansen write-down.

18 Jun – 26 Jun 2026

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BHP's Jansen potash write-down and cost blowout hit shares

Jansen potash write-down and cost blowout BHP announced a $2.3 billion write-down on its Jansen potash mine in Canada and raised the cost estimate for stage two to $6.9 billion, with production delayed to late 2031. Shares fell 5.6% in Sydney and 4.3% in London. This is a major setback for a key growth project, hurting investor confidence and near-term returns.
This is the biggest new event driving BHP's price down this period.
Chile power transmission lines sale BHP is preparing to sell its Chilean power transmission lines for about $1.5 billion, part of a larger asset sale program that has already exceeded $6 billion. This supports the balance sheet and funds growth, especially copper. Selling non-core assets is generally positive for the stock.
This is a new positive development that shows BHP's focus on core assets and cash generation.
Potash rail transport deal with CN Canadian National Railway secured a four-year deal to transport potash from BHP's Jansen mine to Vancouver ports. This strengthens supply chain reliability for future potash exports, supporting the project's long-term viability. It is a small but positive step for BHP's potash ambitions.
This new deal reduces logistical risk for Jansen, partially offsetting the negative write-down news.
Executive leadership changes BHP announced updates to its executive leadership team, which created some uncertainty and contributed to a more than 1% drop in its shares on June 26. Leadership changes can signal strategic shifts or internal challenges, making investors cautious.
This is a new event that adds to negative sentiment, though its impact is smaller than the Jansen write-down.