← TMC the metals overview

TMC the metals vs Glencore: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

TMC the metals company Inc (TMC)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

TMC's regulatory path advances, but losses and analyst caution weigh

  • Tribunal orders ISA to protect TMC subsidiaries' due process An international tribunal unanimously ordered the International Seabed Authority to respect the due process rights of TMC's subsidiaries NORI and TOML. This reduces the risk that regulatory delays or unfair treatment could block TMC's deep-sea mining plans, making the stock less risky for investors.

    This is a new, concrete legal win that directly lowers regulatory risk, a key driver of TMC's value.

  • NOAA advances TMC's mining application to certification stage NOAA moved TMC's consolidated application into the certification stage, with a licensing decision expected by early 2027. TMC and partner Allseas also signed a commercial agreement for a nodule collection system. This progress brings commercial mining closer, supporting the stock's long-term potential.

    This is a new operational and regulatory milestone that moves TMC closer to actual mining, a major positive catalyst.

  • Analyst recommends selling TMC amid regulatory uncertainty An analyst at The Motley Fool recommended selling TMC, citing the International Seabed Authority's failure to finalize exploitation regulations. While a recent tribunal order removed some uncertainty, TMC still needs formal approval for commercial extraction. This adds selling pressure and highlights the stock's high risk.

    This is a new analyst sell call that directly influences investor sentiment and TMC's price.

  • TMC reports $60.1 million Q2 net loss TMC reported a net loss of $60.1 million for Q2 2026, though narrower than last year's $74.3 million. Exploration expenses jumped to $56.1 million due to a $37.2 million Allseas settlement. The company has $98.7 million cash and no debt, but ongoing losses raise funding concerns.

    This is a new financial report showing continued losses and high spending, which can pressure the stock.

July 2026
▲2▼2

TMC's regulatory path advances, but losses and analyst caution weigh

  • Tribunal orders ISA to protect TMC subsidiaries' due process An international tribunal unanimously ordered the International Seabed Authority to respect the due process rights of TMC's subsidiaries NORI and TOML. This reduces the risk that regulatory delays or unfair treatment could block TMC's deep-sea mining plans, making the stock less risky for investors.

    This is a new, concrete legal win that directly lowers regulatory risk, a key driver of TMC's value.

  • NOAA advances TMC's mining application to certification stage NOAA moved TMC's consolidated application into the certification stage, with a licensing decision expected by early 2027. TMC and partner Allseas also signed a commercial agreement for a nodule collection system. This progress brings commercial mining closer, supporting the stock's long-term potential.

    This is a new operational and regulatory milestone that moves TMC closer to actual mining, a major positive catalyst.

  • Analyst recommends selling TMC amid regulatory uncertainty An analyst at The Motley Fool recommended selling TMC, citing the International Seabed Authority's failure to finalize exploitation regulations. While a recent tribunal order removed some uncertainty, TMC still needs formal approval for commercial extraction. This adds selling pressure and highlights the stock's high risk.

    This is a new analyst sell call that directly influences investor sentiment and TMC's price.

  • TMC reports $60.1 million Q2 net loss TMC reported a net loss of $60.1 million for Q2 2026, though narrower than last year's $74.3 million. Exploration expenses jumped to $56.1 million due to a $37.2 million Allseas settlement. The company has $98.7 million cash and no debt, but ongoing losses raise funding concerns.

    This is a new financial report showing continued losses and high spending, which can pressure the stock.

Latest
▲2▼2

TMC's regulatory path advances, but losses and analyst caution weigh

  • Tribunal orders ISA to protect TMC subsidiaries' due process An international tribunal unanimously ordered the International Seabed Authority to respect the due process rights of TMC's subsidiaries NORI and TOML. This reduces the risk that regulatory delays or unfair treatment could block TMC's deep-sea mining plans, making the stock less risky for investors.

    This is a new, concrete legal win that directly lowers regulatory risk, a key driver of TMC's value.

  • NOAA advances TMC's mining application to certification stage NOAA moved TMC's consolidated application into the certification stage, with a licensing decision expected by early 2027. TMC and partner Allseas also signed a commercial agreement for a nodule collection system. This progress brings commercial mining closer, supporting the stock's long-term potential.

    This is a new operational and regulatory milestone that moves TMC closer to actual mining, a major positive catalyst.

  • Analyst recommends selling TMC amid regulatory uncertainty An analyst at The Motley Fool recommended selling TMC, citing the International Seabed Authority's failure to finalize exploitation regulations. While a recent tribunal order removed some uncertainty, TMC still needs formal approval for commercial extraction. This adds selling pressure and highlights the stock's high risk.

    This is a new analyst sell call that directly influences investor sentiment and TMC's price.

  • TMC reports $60.1 million Q2 net loss TMC reported a net loss of $60.1 million for Q2 2026, though narrower than last year's $74.3 million. Exploration expenses jumped to $56.1 million due to a $37.2 million Allseas settlement. The company has $98.7 million cash and no debt, but ongoing losses raise funding concerns.

    This is a new financial report showing continued losses and high spending, which can pressure the stock.

Q2 2026
▲3▼1

TMC Advances U.S. Deep-Sea Mining Permits, But Remains Pre-Revenue

  • NOAA Certification Advances U.S. Exploration License TMC's U.S. subsidiary received formal NOAA certification for its USA B exploration license covering 122,000 square kilometers. This regulatory step moves the company closer to harvesting deep-sea nodules, potentially bypassing international hurdles. For a pre-revenue firm, such progress supports the stock by raising the odds of future production.

    This is a concrete regulatory milestone that directly affects TMC's path to revenue.

  • U.S. Government Support Could Accelerate Permits The Trump administration's push for mineral self-reliance and Defense Department interest in critical minerals may lead to federal grants or fast-tracked approvals. This reduces regulatory risk and could speed up TMC's timeline, making the stock more attractive to investors betting on domestic supply.

    Government backing is a key catalyst that can de-risk TMC's regulatory and funding challenges.

  • Competition Highlights TMC's Pre-Revenue Status Analysts note that MP Materials is already profitable with an operating U.S. mine, while TMC is years away from full operations and unprofitable. This contrast may steer investors toward safer rare-earth plays, pressuring TMC's stock as it competes for capital in a high-risk sector.

    Competitive positioning directly influences investor sentiment and capital flows into TMC.

  • Retail Enthusiasm and Long-Term Demand Backdrop Retail investors are touting TMC as a breakout stock, and the IEA projects rare-earth demand to rise 50-60% by 2040. While this boosts short-term sentiment, TMC remains pre-revenue with execution risks, so the impact is speculative and may not reflect fundamentals.

    Retail hype and demand trends can drive price in the near term, but the speculative nature warrants caution.

June 2026
▲3▼1

TMC Advances U.S. Deep-Sea Mining Permits, But Remains Pre-Revenue

  • NOAA Certification Advances U.S. Exploration License TMC's U.S. subsidiary received formal NOAA certification for its USA B exploration license covering 122,000 square kilometers. This regulatory step moves the company closer to harvesting deep-sea nodules, potentially bypassing international hurdles. For a pre-revenue firm, such progress supports the stock by raising the odds of future production.

    This is a concrete regulatory milestone that directly affects TMC's path to revenue.

  • U.S. Government Support Could Accelerate Permits The Trump administration's push for mineral self-reliance and Defense Department interest in critical minerals may lead to federal grants or fast-tracked approvals. This reduces regulatory risk and could speed up TMC's timeline, making the stock more attractive to investors betting on domestic supply.

    Government backing is a key catalyst that can de-risk TMC's regulatory and funding challenges.

  • Competition Highlights TMC's Pre-Revenue Status Analysts note that MP Materials is already profitable with an operating U.S. mine, while TMC is years away from full operations and unprofitable. This contrast may steer investors toward safer rare-earth plays, pressuring TMC's stock as it competes for capital in a high-risk sector.

    Competitive positioning directly influences investor sentiment and capital flows into TMC.

  • Retail Enthusiasm and Long-Term Demand Backdrop Retail investors are touting TMC as a breakout stock, and the IEA projects rare-earth demand to rise 50-60% by 2040. While this boosts short-term sentiment, TMC remains pre-revenue with execution risks, so the impact is speculative and may not reflect fundamentals.

    Retail hype and demand trends can drive price in the near term, but the speculative nature warrants caution.

▲3▼1

TMC Advances U.S. Deep-Sea Mining Permits, But Remains Pre-Revenue

  • NOAA Certification Advances U.S. Exploration License TMC's U.S. subsidiary received formal NOAA certification for its USA B exploration license covering 122,000 square kilometers. This regulatory step moves the company closer to harvesting deep-sea nodules, potentially bypassing international hurdles. For a pre-revenue firm, such progress supports the stock by raising the odds of future production.

    This is a concrete regulatory milestone that directly affects TMC's path to revenue.

  • U.S. Government Support Could Accelerate Permits The Trump administration's push for mineral self-reliance and Defense Department interest in critical minerals may lead to federal grants or fast-tracked approvals. This reduces regulatory risk and could speed up TMC's timeline, making the stock more attractive to investors betting on domestic supply.

    Government backing is a key catalyst that can de-risk TMC's regulatory and funding challenges.

  • Competition Highlights TMC's Pre-Revenue Status Analysts note that MP Materials is already profitable with an operating U.S. mine, while TMC is years away from full operations and unprofitable. This contrast may steer investors toward safer rare-earth plays, pressuring TMC's stock as it competes for capital in a high-risk sector.

    Competitive positioning directly influences investor sentiment and capital flows into TMC.

  • Retail Enthusiasm and Long-Term Demand Backdrop Retail investors are touting TMC as a breakout stock, and the IEA projects rare-earth demand to rise 50-60% by 2040. While this boosts short-term sentiment, TMC remains pre-revenue with execution risks, so the impact is speculative and may not reflect fundamentals.

    Retail hype and demand trends can drive price in the near term, but the speculative nature warrants caution.

Glencore PLC (GLEN.LSE)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

Glencore surges on profit jump, buyback, copper growth; fraud scandal weighs

  • Profit surge and shareholder returns First-half profit jumped 86% to $4.4bn, driven by Middle East conflict-related commodity prices. Glencore announced a $500m buyback and an 8.5c special dividend, returning cash to shareholders.

    This is the main positive force behind the stock's rise, showing strong earnings and cash returns.

  • Copper output growth and bullish outlook Copper output rose 15%, on track for 1 million tonnes by 2028. BofA raised its copper price forecast by 20% and rated Glencore a Buy, boosting investor confidence.

    Copper is a key profit driver, and higher output plus analyst upgrades support the stock.

  • Trading arm outperformance and new deals The trading division earned $3.3bn, already exceeding all of last year. Glencore also signed a $1bn battery-recycling offtake and backed the Marathon copper project, expanding future growth.

    Trading profits provide stability and the new deals signal strategic expansion.

  • Radiant fraud scandal deepens An executive was suspended amid a $2bn lawsuit and a $480m provision, raising legal and reputational risks. This scandal could weigh on the stock despite strong operational results.

    This is the main counterweight, highlighting potential legal and reputational damage.

September 2026
▲3▼1

Glencore hit by fraud scandal, but copper and recycling deals lift outlook

  • Radiant fraud scandal deepens Glencore suspended an executive after messages showed he told Radiant to avoid email, and faces a $2bn lawsuit plus a $480m provision. This raises legal and reputational risk, weighing on the shares.

    This is the biggest negative force this period, directly hitting Glencore's finances and trust.

  • BofA raises copper forecast, rates Glencore Buy BofA lifted its long-term copper price forecast 20% to $12,000 and rated Glencore Buy with a 650p target, citing copper growth options. Higher copper prices mean more profit for Glencore's key metal.

    Analyst upgrade and higher copper price forecast directly support Glencore's valuation.

  • Glencore signs $1bn battery recycling offtake Glencore will supply black mass to Nth Cycle and buy back lithium and nickel over ten years. This expands its battery-materials trading and positions it in the growing recycling market.

    New long-term supply deal adds a revenue stream and strengthens Glencore's battery metals business.

  • Glencore backs Marathon copper project Glencore invested in Generation Mining's Marathon project and agreed to buy its copper concentrate for its Horne smelter. This secures feed for its processing assets and supports future copper supply.

    Investment and offtake deal enhance Glencore's copper business and downstream operations.

Latest
▲3▼1

Glencore hit by fraud scandal, but copper and recycling deals lift outlook

  • Radiant fraud scandal deepens Glencore suspended an executive after messages showed he told Radiant to avoid email, and faces a $2bn lawsuit plus a $480m provision. This raises legal and reputational risk, weighing on the shares.

    This is the biggest negative force this period, directly hitting Glencore's finances and trust.

  • BofA raises copper forecast, rates Glencore Buy BofA lifted its long-term copper price forecast 20% to $12,000 and rated Glencore Buy with a 650p target, citing copper growth options. Higher copper prices mean more profit for Glencore's key metal.

    Analyst upgrade and higher copper price forecast directly support Glencore's valuation.

  • Glencore signs $1bn battery recycling offtake Glencore will supply black mass to Nth Cycle and buy back lithium and nickel over ten years. This expands its battery-materials trading and positions it in the growing recycling market.

    New long-term supply deal adds a revenue stream and strengthens Glencore's battery metals business.

  • Glencore backs Marathon copper project Glencore invested in Generation Mining's Marathon project and agreed to buy its copper concentrate for its Horne smelter. This secures feed for its processing assets and supports future copper supply.

    Investment and offtake deal enhance Glencore's copper business and downstream operations.

July 2026
▲4

Glencore's profit surges on Middle East volatility, buyback and Australian listing planned

  • First-half profit surges 86% on Middle East conflict Glencore swung to a $4.4 billion first-half profit from a loss last year, with earnings up 86% as commodity prices jumped during the Iran war. This beat expectations and directly boosts the shares.

    This is the core new financial result driving the stock higher.

  • Trading arm profits $3.3 billion in first half Glencore's marketing business made about $3.3 billion in the first half, already more than all of last year, thanks to wild price swings during the Iran war. This shows the company can profit from volatility.

    Highlights a key earnings driver that exceeded full-year 2025 already.

  • $500 million buyback and special dividend announced Glencore will buy back $500 million of its own shares and pay a special cash distribution of 8.5 cents per share. Returning cash to shareholders supports the share price.

    Buybacks and special dividends are direct positive signals for the stock.

  • Copper production up 15%, on track for 1 million tonnes First-half copper output rose 15%, and Glencore remains on track to produce about 1 million tonnes annually by 2028. Higher volumes mean more revenue and profit potential.

    Shows operational growth that underpins future earnings.

▲4

Glencore's profit surges on Middle East volatility, buyback and Australian listing planned

  • First-half profit surges 86% on Middle East conflict Glencore swung to a $4.4 billion first-half profit from a loss last year, with earnings up 86% as commodity prices jumped during the Iran war. This beat expectations and directly boosts the shares.

    This is the core new financial result driving the stock higher.

  • Trading arm profits $3.3 billion in first half Glencore's marketing business made about $3.3 billion in the first half, already more than all of last year, thanks to wild price swings during the Iran war. This shows the company can profit from volatility.

    Highlights a key earnings driver that exceeded full-year 2025 already.

  • $500 million buyback and special dividend announced Glencore will buy back $500 million of its own shares and pay a special cash distribution of 8.5 cents per share. Returning cash to shareholders supports the share price.

    Buybacks and special dividends are direct positive signals for the stock.

  • Copper production up 15%, on track for 1 million tonnes First-half copper output rose 15%, and Glencore remains on track to produce about 1 million tonnes annually by 2028. Higher volumes mean more revenue and profit potential.

    Shows operational growth that underpins future earnings.

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