Toll Brothers vs DR Horton: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

Q3 202618 Jun – 29 Aug 2026

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Toll Brothers: solid luxury demand and buybacks offset falling profit

Housing-supply law passed Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, cutting building red tape and blocking big investors from buying more existing homes. That pushes buyers toward new builds and lowers costs for Toll Brothers over years, lifting the stock.
A new law that directly boosts future demand and lowers costs for TOL.
Q3 profit fell but beat guidance Toll Brothers' quarterly profit dropped to $280 million from $370 million a year ago as revenue slipped. Still, results beat the company's own guidance, contracts rose 5%, and full-year targets were kept, so the stock held up.
The latest earnings are the core new fact driving how investors value TOL.
Bigger buyback and analyst targets up Toll Brothers raised its planned share buybacks for the year to $700 million from $650 million. Analysts at UBS and Citi lifted price targets to $195 and $179, both keeping Buy ratings, signaling confidence in the luxury builder.
Shows management and analysts putting more money and confidence behind the stock.
Margin and land-cost worries linger About a quarter of buyers pay cash, cushioning high mortgage rates, but the company still faces shrinking profit margins and rising land write-offs. Those pressures could cap how much the stock gains even as sales hold up.
Gives the fair counterweight: real risks that could pull TOL's price down.

July 202618 Jun – 29 Aug 2026

▲2▼1

Toll Brothers: solid luxury demand and buybacks offset falling profit

Housing-supply law passed Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, cutting building red tape and blocking big investors from buying more existing homes. That pushes buyers toward new builds and lowers costs for Toll Brothers over years, lifting the stock.
A new law that directly boosts future demand and lowers costs for TOL.
Q3 profit fell but beat guidance Toll Brothers' quarterly profit dropped to $280 million from $370 million a year ago as revenue slipped. Still, results beat the company's own guidance, contracts rose 5%, and full-year targets were kept, so the stock held up.
The latest earnings are the core new fact driving how investors value TOL.
Bigger buyback and analyst targets up Toll Brothers raised its planned share buybacks for the year to $700 million from $650 million. Analysts at UBS and Citi lifted price targets to $195 and $179, both keeping Buy ratings, signaling confidence in the luxury builder.
Shows management and analysts putting more money and confidence behind the stock.
Margin and land-cost worries linger About a quarter of buyers pay cash, cushioning high mortgage rates, but the company still faces shrinking profit margins and rising land write-offs. Those pressures could cap how much the stock gains even as sales hold up.
Gives the fair counterweight: real risks that could pull TOL's price down.

Latest18 Jun – 29 Aug 2026

▲2▼1

Toll Brothers: solid luxury demand and buybacks offset falling profit

Housing-supply law passed Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, cutting building red tape and blocking big investors from buying more existing homes. That pushes buyers toward new builds and lowers costs for Toll Brothers over years, lifting the stock.
A new law that directly boosts future demand and lowers costs for TOL.
Q3 profit fell but beat guidance Toll Brothers' quarterly profit dropped to $280 million from $370 million a year ago as revenue slipped. Still, results beat the company's own guidance, contracts rose 5%, and full-year targets were kept, so the stock held up.
The latest earnings are the core new fact driving how investors value TOL.
Bigger buyback and analyst targets up Toll Brothers raised its planned share buybacks for the year to $700 million from $650 million. Analysts at UBS and Citi lifted price targets to $195 and $179, both keeping Buy ratings, signaling confidence in the luxury builder.
Shows management and analysts putting more money and confidence behind the stock.
Margin and land-cost worries linger About a quarter of buyers pay cash, cushioning high mortgage rates, but the company still faces shrinking profit margins and rising land write-offs. Those pressures could cap how much the stock gains even as sales hold up.
Gives the fair counterweight: real risks that could pull TOL's price down.

DR Horton Inc (DHI)

Q3 202624 Jun – 10 Sep 2026

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DHI pressured by higher rates and profit decline despite policy boost

Mortgage rates rise, cooling demand The 30-year mortgage rate climbed to about 6.67% even as the Federal Reserve held steady, making monthly payments pricier and discouraging homebuyers. This directly weighed on D.R. Horton's sales and stock price.
Higher mortgage rates are a key near-term negative driver of demand and DHI's price.
Profit falls and guidance cut Q3 profit dropped to $904.9 million from $1.024 billion a year earlier, with flat revenue. Management cut full-year guidance to $32.5–$33 billion, signaling weaker expectations ahead.
Earnings decline and reduced guidance are direct negative drivers of investor sentiment and DHI's price.
Cancellations rise, margins shrink Cancellation rates increased to 20% from 17%, and gross margins fell to 20.7%. More buyers backing out and thinner profits point to persistent pressure on sales and profitability.
Rising cancellations and shrinking margins are operational negatives that hurt DHI's financial performance.
Housing law and Berkshire stake Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, cutting red tape and limiting large investors from buying existing homes, which could boost new-home demand over time. Berkshire Hathaway also opened a new stake in DHI, signaling long-term confidence.
These are positive developments that could support future demand and investor sentiment, though benefits are longer-term.

August 202614 Aug – 10 Sep 2026

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Berkshire's new DHI stake meets weak housing demand and high mortgage rates

Berkshire Hathaway opens a new position in D.R. Horton Berkshire Hathaway, now run by Greg Abel, bought a small new stake in D.R. Horton and raised its Lennar stake by nearly 30% as part of a roughly $23.5 billion stock-buying quarter. A famous long-term investor choosing to own the stock can support DHI's price by improving how other investors see the company.
A well-known investor buying DHI is a fresh, price-relevant signal of confidence.
Mortgage rates stay near 6.5% even as the Fed holds steady The Fed has kept its rate at 3.75% for 231 days, but 30-year mortgage rates have climbed to about 6.67% because long-term Treasury yields are high. Costlier loans make monthly payments harder for buyers, which cools demand for new homes and pressures DHI's sales and price.
High mortgage rates are the main force squeezing homebuyer demand and DHI's results.
DHI beats Q3 estimates but cuts full-year guidance D.R. Horton earned $3.20 per share, beating expectations, yet management lowered its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to $32.5-$33 billion and cut its home-closing forecast. A guidance cut tells investors future sales and profits will be weaker than previously thought, which weighs on the stock.
The lowered guidance is the clearest company-specific reason for negative pressure on DHI.
Cancellations rise and margins shrink as yields stay high DHI's cancellation rate jumped to 20% from 17% a year earlier, and home-sales gross margin fell to 20.7% as buyers walked away or demanded incentives. Long-term Treasury yields near year highs keep mortgage rates elevated, so this pressure on sales and profitability is likely to persist.
It shows the concrete damage high rates are doing to DHI's orders and profit margins.

Latest14 Aug – 10 Sep 2026

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Berkshire's new DHI stake meets weak housing demand and high mortgage rates

Berkshire Hathaway opens a new position in D.R. Horton Berkshire Hathaway, now run by Greg Abel, bought a small new stake in D.R. Horton and raised its Lennar stake by nearly 30% as part of a roughly $23.5 billion stock-buying quarter. A famous long-term investor choosing to own the stock can support DHI's price by improving how other investors see the company.
A well-known investor buying DHI is a fresh, price-relevant signal of confidence.
Mortgage rates stay near 6.5% even as the Fed holds steady The Fed has kept its rate at 3.75% for 231 days, but 30-year mortgage rates have climbed to about 6.67% because long-term Treasury yields are high. Costlier loans make monthly payments harder for buyers, which cools demand for new homes and pressures DHI's sales and price.
High mortgage rates are the main force squeezing homebuyer demand and DHI's results.
DHI beats Q3 estimates but cuts full-year guidance D.R. Horton earned $3.20 per share, beating expectations, yet management lowered its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to $32.5-$33 billion and cut its home-closing forecast. A guidance cut tells investors future sales and profits will be weaker than previously thought, which weighs on the stock.
The lowered guidance is the clearest company-specific reason for negative pressure on DHI.
Cancellations rise and margins shrink as yields stay high DHI's cancellation rate jumped to 20% from 17% a year earlier, and home-sales gross margin fell to 20.7% as buyers walked away or demanded incentives. Long-term Treasury yields near year highs keep mortgage rates elevated, so this pressure on sales and profitability is likely to persist.
It shows the concrete damage high rates are doing to DHI's orders and profit margins.

July 202624 Jun – 22 Jul 2026

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Housing bill passed, but mortgage rates and weak Q3 profit pressure DHI

Housing supply bill becomes law Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which cuts red tape and limits large investors from buying existing homes. This should boost new home demand and lower costs for D.R. Horton over time, but the benefit will take years to show up.
This is a major new regulation that directly benefits DHI's business by increasing demand for new homes and reducing construction friction.
Mortgage rates rise to 6.49% The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.49%, making monthly payments more expensive for buyers. Higher rates cool demand for new homes, which pressures DHI's sales and stock price in the near term.
Rising mortgage rates directly reduce affordability and demand for DHI's homes, a key negative driver.
Forestar cash burn threatens land pipeline Forestar, which supplies lots to D.R. Horton, is burning cash and growing slowly. This could delay new communities and raise costs, hurting DHI's ability to build and sell homes compared to rivals.
This is a new risk to DHI's supply chain that could limit future growth and margins.
Q3 profit falls and guidance cut D.R. Horton's third-quarter profit dropped to $904.9 million from $1.024 billion a year ago, with flat revenue. Management lowered full-year revenue and closings guidance, and the cancellation rate rose to 20%, signaling softer demand and margin pressure.
This is the latest earnings report showing declining profitability and reduced outlook, a direct negative for the stock.

24 Jun – 22 Jul 2026

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Housing bill passed, but mortgage rates and weak Q3 profit pressure DHI

Housing supply bill becomes law Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which cuts red tape and limits large investors from buying existing homes. This should boost new home demand and lower costs for D.R. Horton over time, but the benefit will take years to show up.
This is a major new regulation that directly benefits DHI's business by increasing demand for new homes and reducing construction friction.
Mortgage rates rise to 6.49% The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.49%, making monthly payments more expensive for buyers. Higher rates cool demand for new homes, which pressures DHI's sales and stock price in the near term.
Rising mortgage rates directly reduce affordability and demand for DHI's homes, a key negative driver.
Forestar cash burn threatens land pipeline Forestar, which supplies lots to D.R. Horton, is burning cash and growing slowly. This could delay new communities and raise costs, hurting DHI's ability to build and sell homes compared to rivals.
This is a new risk to DHI's supply chain that could limit future growth and margins.
Q3 profit falls and guidance cut D.R. Horton's third-quarter profit dropped to $904.9 million from $1.024 billion a year ago, with flat revenue. Management lowered full-year revenue and closings guidance, and the cancellation rate rose to 20%, signaling softer demand and margin pressure.
This is the latest earnings report showing declining profitability and reduced outlook, a direct negative for the stock.