← US Government Bond 2Y overview

US Government Bond 2Y vs United States Government Bond 10Y: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

US Government Bond 2Y (US-2Y.GB)

Q3 2026
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US 2-Year Yield Hits 2025 High on Fed Hikes, Fiscal Worries

  • Fed rate-hike fears and actual hike Under Chair Warsh, the Fed raised rates in September and signaled no cuts until 2028, pushing the 2-year yield to its highest since January 2025. Strong August payrolls and hot PPI added to the case for higher rates.

    This was the main driver of the yield's rise to a new high.

  • Fiscal worries and heavy bill issuance Federal debt above $40 trillion and heavy issuance of short-term bills increased the supply of government debt, pushing yields higher as investors demanded more compensation to hold it.

    This added upward pressure on yields independently of Fed policy.

  • Easing Middle East tensions and falling oil Easing Middle East tensions and falling oil prices reduced inflation fears, while Treasury buybacks and cooler PCE data also helped pull yields back from their peak.

    These factors provided a counterweight that prevented yields from rising even further.

  • Weak jobs report vs. rising oil and strong PMI A weak September jobs report (29,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemployment) pulled yields lower, but rising oil and a strong PMI kept inflation fears alive, leaving yields elevated around 4.73%.

    This shows the tug-of-war that left yields high but off their peak.

September 2026
▼2▲1

Fed hike and hot inflation spike yields, then weak data pull back

  • Fed hike and hawkish dot plot The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signaled no cuts until 2028, pushing the 2-year yield to 4.74% as markets repriced higher-for-longer policy.

    This was the primary force driving yields sharply higher in early September.

  • Hot PPI and oil above $100 Hot producer price inflation and oil prices above $100 reinforced fears that inflation remains sticky, adding upward pressure on yields and keeping the Fed hawkish.

    Inflation data and energy costs directly influence rate expectations and bond yields.

  • Cooler PCE and weak jobs report Cooler PCE inflation and a weak jobs report (29,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemployment) slashed rate-hike odds, pulling the 2-year yield down to around 4.73%.

    This late-September reversal was a major new development that eased rate expectations.

  • Rising oil and strong PMI limit decline Rising oil prices and a strong PMI kept inflation fears alive, limiting the decline in yields and leaving them elevated but off their highs.

    This counterweight prevented a larger drop in yields, showing persistent inflation risks.

Latest
▼2▲1

Cooling Inflation and Weak Jobs Data Pull 2-Year Yield Down from Highs

  • Cooler PCE Inflation Raises Odds Fed Holds Rates August PCE inflation came in below expectations (3.4% vs 3.7% forecast), easing fears of more Fed hikes. Investors now see a 62.9% chance the Fed holds rates in October, up from 49.1%. The 2-year yield fell to 4.827%, as lower expected short-term rates push bond prices up.

    This is a key new event that directly lowered the 2-year yield by changing Fed rate expectations.

  • Weak September Jobs Report Slashes Rate-Hike Bets September payrolls rose only 29,000, far below the 89,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Investors now price an 83.9% chance the Fed holds rates in October, up from 35.8% a week ago. The 2-year yield fell to 4.730%, as weaker jobs reduce pressure for higher rates.

    This is the latest major data point that significantly shifted Fed expectations and pushed the 2-year yield down.

  • Rising Oil and Strong PMI Keep Inflation Fears Alive Oil prices above $93 (WTI) and a 62-month high in the composite PMI (58.4) with rising price pressures kept inflation concerns elevated. This supported expectations of further Fed hikes, limiting the fall in the 2-year yield, which remained near 4.9% before the PCE data.

    This is a counterweight that prevented a larger drop in the 2-year yield, showing the forces pushing in the opposite direction.

▲4

Fed Hikes Again, Signals More; 2-Year Yield Jumps to 4.74%

  • Fed's First Rate Hike in 3 Years Pushes 2-Year Yield to 4.74% The Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%, the first hike since 2023, and signaled one more increase this year. The 2-year yield jumped to 4.74%, its highest since 2024, as bond prices fell. Higher short-term rates directly lift the 2-year yield.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly drives the 2-year yield higher.

  • Hawkish Dot Plot Shows Higher Rates for Longer The Fed's projections now see rates at 4.1% by end-2026, up from 3.8%, and no cuts until 2028. This 'higher for longer' message keeps upward pressure on the 2-year yield, as investors expect short-term rates to stay elevated.

    The dot plot revision is a key new signal that reinforces the upward trend in the 2-year yield.

  • Treasury Buyback Disappointment and Supply Worries Lift Yields The Treasury's expanded buyback was smaller than expected, and weak demand at the operation highlighted fiscal concerns. This added to selling pressure, pushing the 2-year yield to a two-year high before the Fed meeting.

    This new supply/demand imbalance contributed to the rise in the 2-year yield ahead of the Fed.

  • Hot PPI and Oil Prices Keep Inflation Fears Alive August PPI came in hotter than expected at 5.4%, and oil prices above $100 added to inflation worries. This reinforced expectations of a Fed hike, pushing the 2-year yield up 16 basis points to 4.59% before the meeting.

    Inflation data and oil prices are new drivers that increased rate-hike odds and lifted the 2-year yield.

August 2026
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Fed rate-hike fears push 2-year Treasury yield to 2025 high

  • Fed rate-hike expectations Fed Chair Warsh warned inflation remains at 3.7%, reviving rate-hike odds. Strong August payrolls (162,000 vs. 55,000 expected) then drove the 2-year yield to roughly 4.38–4.43%, its highest since January 2025, as markets priced a 60% chance of a September hike.

    This is the main new force that pushed yields up and bond prices down during the period.

  • Easing Middle East tensions and falling oil Easing Middle East tensions and falling oil prices briefly supported bonds, as lower energy costs can reduce inflation pressures and make fixed-income more attractive.

    This is a new counterweight that helped bond prices and limited the yield rise.

  • Treasury buybacks Treasury buybacks also provided temporary support for bonds, as the government buying back its own debt can help keep a lid on yields.

    This is another new factor that acted as a counterweight to the upward yield pressure.

  • Fiscal worries and heavy bill issuance Fiscal worries persist: federal debt above $40 trillion and heavy short-term bill issuance risk pushing short-term rates higher, which could keep upward pressure on the 2-year yield.

    This is a new ongoing risk that could continue to weigh on bond prices.

▲2▼1

Strong August Jobs Data Lifts 2-Year Yield to 2025 High on Rate-Hike Bets

  • Strong August Jobs Report Pushes 2-Year Yield to Highest Since January 2025 August payrolls rose 162,000, far above the 55,000 expected, and wages grew 3.1%. Traders now see a 60% chance of a September Fed rate hike, up from 49%. The 2-year yield jumped to about 4.38-4.43%, its highest since January 2025, so the bond's price fell.

    This is the period's biggest new force: hot jobs data directly raised rate-hike odds and drove the 2-year yield to a multi-month high.

  • Treasury Buybacks and Easing Middle East Tensions Briefly Support Bonds Early in the period, easing Middle East tensions and falling oil pulled the 2-year yield down to about 4.20%. The Treasury's expanded long-term buybacks also briefly pushed yields lower, but the effect faded within a day as inflation and debt worries returned.

    This is the real counterweight: forces that briefly pushed yields down before the jobs data reversed them.

  • Fiscal Worries and Heavy Short-Term Bill Supply Risk Pushing Short-Term Rates Higher Federal debt has topped $40 trillion, and funding the Treasury's buybacks means issuing more short-term bills. That extra supply can push short-term rates up, and markets speculate the Fed may have to buy bonds to prevent a spike, adding to upward pressure on the 2-year yield.

    It explains a structural supply-and-fiscal force that keeps upward pressure on short-term yields beyond the jobs report.

▲2▼1

Jobs Weakness Then Warsh's Inflation Warning Whiplash 2-Year Yields

  • Weak July Jobs Report Pulls 2-Year Yield Down A surprisingly weak July jobs report showed payrolls fell by 23,000, far below the expected 80,000 gain. That eased fears of a Fed rate hike, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield down about 7 basis points to roughly 4.18%. Lower yields mean the bond's price rose.

    This was the first major event of the period and directly drove the 2-year yield lower, answering what moved it.

  • Warsh's Jackson Hole Warning Lifts Rate-Hike Odds Fed Chair Warsh said the Fed 'will have work to do' if inflation doesn't clearly return to 2%, noting inflation is still 3.7%. Traders raised the chance of a September rate hike to about 50-56% from roughly 35-40%. The 2-year yield jumped to around 4.28-4.31%, a one-month high, as bond prices fell.

    This is the period's biggest new driver, reversing the earlier yield drop and pushing the 2-year yield sharply higher.

  • Markets Reprice for Possible Fed Hike, Not Cuts After Warsh's speech, markets moved to price in a possible rate hike rather than cuts. The 2-year yield rose 7-9 basis points, the dollar strengthened, and stocks and bitcoin fell. This confirms the shift in expectations that keeps upward pressure on the 2-year yield.

    It shows the broad market reaction that reinforces the higher-for-longer rate outlook driving the 2-year yield.

United States Government Bond 10Y (US-10Y.GB)

Latest
▲2▼2

10-year yield hits 5.34% on war-driven oil, then eases on soft PCE and weak jobs

  • Trump rejects Iran peace plan; oil and yields spike Trump refused Iran's truce offer and did not rule out new strikes, pushing oil up about 3% and the 10-year yield to 5.27%, highest since 2007. War-driven energy costs keep inflation high, so investors demand more yield to hold long-term bonds.

    This is the main new force pushing yields to multi-year highs this period.

  • Global bond selloff and record quarterly yield jump The 10-year yield reached 5.34%, the highest since 2002, and rose 87.1 basis points in the quarter, the biggest since 1994. Heavy government borrowing and expectations central banks stay tight push yields up worldwide, dragging the US 10-year higher.

    Shows the scale and global nature of the selloff driving US yields.

  • Soft PCE inflation cuts October rate-hike odds August PCE inflation came in below forecasts (3.4% headline, 3.0% core), and markets cut the chance of an October Fed hike to about 37% from 51%. Lower expected rates make existing bonds more attractive, pulling the 10-year yield down to 5.217%.

    This is the first real counterweight this period, easing upward yield pressure.

  • Weak September jobs data boosts Fed-hold bets Nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000 versus 89,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Markets now price an 84% chance the Fed holds rates in October, up from 36% a week earlier, pulling the 10-year yield down to 5.180%.

    This is the latest and strongest new force pulling yields lower at period end.

Q3 2026
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10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 24-Year High on Inflation, Fed Hike, Oil

  • Inflation and Fed Rate Hike Inflation near 3.3% and the first Fed rate hike in three years under hawkish Chair Warsh pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to a 24-year high of 5.34%. Higher rates make existing bonds less valuable, so prices fell.

    This is the main new driver of the yield surge and bond price decline.

  • Oil Spike and Record Global Bond Selling Oil above $100 due to the US-Iran conflict and record global bond selling driven by $40 trillion in US debt added upward pressure on yields. Investors demanded higher returns to hold bonds, pushing prices down.

    These are new external pressures that contributed to the yield rise.

  • Weak Economic Data and Fed Dissent Weak July payrolls (-23,000), soft retail sales, consumer confidence and PCE data, falling oil on ceasefire hopes, and Fed dissent from Waller pulled yields down, supporting bond prices. Political pressure for rate cuts also helped.

    These are new counterweights that limited the yield rise and supported prices.

  • Treasury Buybacks Doubled Treasury buybacks doubled to $4 billion per operation, supporting bond prices. However, Fed balance-sheet tensions and reduced communication added uncertainty, keeping yields elevated.

    This is a new policy action that directly supported bond prices.

September 2026
▲3▼1

10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 24-Year High on Fed Hike, Oil Spike

  • Fed rate hike and hawkish stance The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in three years, and Chair Warsh signaled more tightening ahead. This pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up sharply as investors expected higher rates for longer.

    This is the primary new driver of the yield surge in September.

  • Oil above $100 on US-Iran conflict Oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel due to the US-Iran conflict, raising inflation fears. Higher expected inflation erodes the value of bond payments, so investors demanded higher yields, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is a new geopolitical shock that added upward pressure on yields.

  • Hot inflation and record global bond selloff Inflation data came in hotter than expected, and a record global bond selloff intensified as investors worried about $40 trillion in US debt. These forces drove the 10-year yield to a 24-year high of 5.34%.

    This explains the extreme yield level and global market dynamics.

  • Counterweights: soft data and Fed dissent Soft PCE and weak payrolls cut October hike odds to 16%, while Fed's Waller urged caution and political pressure for cuts grew. These factors pulled yields down from their peak, ending September near 5.18%.

    This shows the real counterweight that prevented yields from staying at the high.

▲3

Hot economy, hawkish Fed and oil push 10-year yield to 19-year high

  • Strong September PMI and hawkish Fed officials lift rate-hike odds US business activity hit a 5-year high in September, and Fed officials Barr, Goolsbee, Paulson and Williams all backed further rate hikes. Markets now price about a 70% chance of an October hike. Higher expected rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield above 5% to a 19-year high.

    This is the main new force this period: strong data plus hawkish Fed talk sharply raised rate-hike expectations, directly lifting the 10-year yield.

  • Oil stays above $100 as Iran war drags on, feeding inflation The US-Iran conflict entered its seventh month with no exit, keeping Brent crude near $106 and gasoline near $5 a gallon. JPMorgan gave up forecasting oil prices. High energy costs keep inflation high, so investors demand more yield to hold long-term bonds, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    The ongoing oil shock is a key new driver keeping inflation and yields elevated, and it shows no sign of easing.

  • Global bond selloff sends long-term yields to multi-decade highs The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.48%, a 22-year high, and Japan's 10-year yield reached 3.115%, a 30-year high. Heavy government borrowing and expectations that central banks stay tight are pushing yields up worldwide, dragging the US 10-year yield to 5.22%.

    This shows the move is global, not just US, and reinforces upward pressure on the 10-year yield.

  • US-China trade truce extended, but diesel export ban plan adds uncertainty The US and China extended their trade truce to January 2027, which could ease inflation pressure and pull yields down. But the White House is considering a 90-day diesel export ban to lower fuel prices before midterms, a wildcard that could either calm or worsen energy markets.

    This is a genuine counterweight: the truce reduces one inflation risk, but the diesel ban plan adds uncertainty that could keep yields volatile.

▲3

Fed's first hike in 3 years pushes 10-year Treasury yield above 5%

  • Fed hikes rates and signals more to come The Fed raised its key rate by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike in three years, and most officials expect at least one more this year. Higher expected rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is the central new event of the period and the main force lifting the 10-year yield.

  • Oil above $100 on Middle East supply fears Attacks on Saudi oil facilities and shipping pushed Brent above $107 and US crude above $105. Higher energy costs feed inflation worries, so investors demand more yield to hold long-term bonds, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    Oil-driven inflation fears are a key new force keeping upward pressure on yields.

  • 10-year yield tops 5%, highest since 2007 The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2007, as markets priced in a near-certain Fed hike. Rising global debt worries and heavy government borrowing add to the upward pressure on long-term yields.

    This is the headline market outcome of the period and shows the scale of the move.

  • Some warn rate hikes won't fix supply-driven inflation Economists like Mark Zandi and TISCO note that energy and tariff shocks are supply problems rate hikes can't solve, and the Fed may be 'painted into a corner.' That doubt can cap how high yields go, even as the hike itself pushes them up.

    This is the real counterweight: it explains why the yield rise may be limited or reversed if the hikes are seen as ineffective.

▲3

Oil shock and hot inflation data push 10-year Treasury yield toward 5%

  • Oil spike above $100 on US-Iran conflict fuels inflation fears Renewed US-Iran fighting and attacks on Saudi oil facilities pushed Brent crude above $105, its highest in months. Higher energy costs feed inflation, making investors demand more yield to hold long-term bonds, pushing the 10-year yield up to near 5%.

    This is the main new force this period driving yields higher through inflation expectations.

  • Hot PPI and CPI data lift September rate-hike odds to about 70% Producer prices came in firmer than expected and August CPI showed core prices rising 0.3% month-on-month, above forecasts. Markets now see a roughly 70% chance the Fed hikes rates on September 16, and higher expected rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is the key new data point that shifted rate expectations and directly moved yields.

  • Treasury buybacks fail to cap yields as debt tops $40 trillion The Treasury bought back only $5.19 billion of bonds versus the $6 billion planned, and received just $10 billion of offers versus the usual $20 billion. Weak demand signals investors want higher yields, and with US debt past $40 trillion and $8.4 trillion needing refinancing, heavy borrowing keeps upward pressure on the 10-year yield.

    This shows the counterweight (buybacks) is failing, which is new and important for the big picture.

  • Political pressure for rate cuts clashes with Fed independence concerns Vice President Vance and President Trump pushed for rate cuts, with Trump threatening to halt trade if the Fed doesn't comply. This political interference raises doubts about the Fed's independence, which can push yields up as investors demand extra compensation for uncertainty, even as the calls for cuts pull in the opposite direction.

    This is a new political development that adds uncertainty and affects the yield through Fed credibility concerns.

▲3▼1

Warsh's hawkish Fed and oil spike push 10-year yield to 2023 high

  • Warsh's Jackson Hole speech fuels September rate-hike bets Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech was seen as hawkish, saying the Fed has 'work to do' if inflation doesn't fall. Markets now price a 60-66% chance of a September rate hike, up from about 35%. Higher expected rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is the main new force this period, directly driving rate-hike expectations and yields.

  • US-Iran conflict lifts oil, adding to inflation worries Renewed US-Iran fighting pushed oil above $90 a barrel, with Brent near $95. Higher energy costs feed inflation fears, making investors demand more yield to hold long-term bonds. The 10-year yield rose above 4.75%, its highest since late 2023.

    Oil-driven inflation fears are a key new driver pushing yields higher this period.

  • Global bond selloff sends yields to multi-year highs Government bond yields jumped worldwide, with Japan's 10-year hitting 3% for the first time since 1996 and Germany's at a 15-year high. Heavy government borrowing and expectations that central banks stay tight for longer pushed the US 10-year yield to 4.81%, a near three-year high.

    This shows the global scale of the selloff and reinforces upward pressure on US yields.

  • Waller hints Fed may hold, and strong jobs data keeps hike debate alive Fed Governor Waller said the Fed could 'wait one meeting' and give disinflation a chance, briefly pulling the 10-year yield down to about 4.75% and cutting hike odds to 50%. But strong August jobs data (162,000 vs 55,000 expected) quickly pushed hike odds back to 60%, keeping yields elevated.

    This is the main counterweight: a possible Fed hold that briefly lowered yields, though strong data limited the relief.

August 2026
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Inflation, Fed hawkishness, and debt worries pushed 10-year Treasury yields higher in August

  • Inflation and Fed hawkishness Inflation stayed near 3.3%, and Fed Chair Warsh signaled a tough stance on prices, raising the chance of a September interest-rate hike. That pushed long-term bond yields up.

    This is a key new driver of higher yields in August.

  • Fiscal worries and heavy borrowing US government debt passed $40 trillion, with heavy borrowing and a global savings squeeze. Investors demanded higher yields to hold long-term bonds, adding upward pressure on rates.

    This new fiscal development pushed yields higher.

  • Weak economic data and lower oil July jobs fell by 23,000, retail sales and consumer confidence were soft, and oil prices dropped on US-Iran ceasefire hopes. These factors pulled yields down by suggesting slower growth and less inflation.

    This new data provided downward pressure on yields.

  • Treasury buybacks and Fed uncertainty Treasury doubled buybacks to $4 billion per operation, supporting bond prices, but tension with the Fed over balance-sheet shrinkage and reduced Fed communication raised uncertainty. Investors demanded extra yield, keeping rates elevated.

    This new mixed factor influenced yields in both directions.

▲2▼1

Treasury buybacks vs. Warsh's rate-hike signal: yields end higher

  • Treasury doubles long-bond buybacks to push yields down The Treasury expanded purchases of 10- to 30-year government bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, starting September 9, and may use its $950 billion cash account. Buying bonds lifts their price and lowers the 10-year yield, though the effect faded as investors doubted it fixes the debt load.

    This is the main new force pulling the 10-year yield down this period.

  • Warsh's Jackson Hole speech lifts September rate-hike odds Fed Chair Warsh said the Fed has 'work to do' if inflation doesn't clearly fall to 2%, and financial conditions aren't restrictive. Traders raised the chance of a September hike to about 55-60% from 35%. Higher expected rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield above 4.7%.

    This is the biggest new upward force on the 10-year yield this period.

  • Global savings squeeze and debt worries keep long-term yields high Heavy government borrowing, trade disruptions, aging costs and AI investment are all competing for the same lending money, a shift from a savings glut to a savings squeeze. With US debt past $40 trillion and deficits large, investors demand more yield to lend long-term, keeping the 10-year yield elevated.

    This explains the persistent upward pressure that buybacks alone cannot offset.

  • Treasury-Fed clash leaves bond investors uncertain The Treasury's buybacks work against the Fed's inflation fight, and Warsh gave little guidance on future policy. Investors demand extra yield for that uncertainty, which pushes long-term yields up, while the buybacks themselves pull yields down. The two forces leave the 10-year yield volatile around 4.65-4.72%.

    It shows the real counterweight that keeps the net direction from being one-sided.

▲2▼1

Treasury buybacks clash with inflation and debt fears, yields stay high

  • Inflation stubborn, Fed minutes signal possible hikes Core inflation stuck near 3.3% and Fed minutes showed many officials ready to raise rates if it doesn't fall. Higher rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is the main force keeping upward pressure on yields.

  • US debt tops $40 trillion, fiscal worries grow US government debt passed $40 trillion for the first time, with a $1.8 trillion deficit this year. Heavy borrowing and rising interest costs push yields up as investors demand more to lend.

    Fiscal deterioration is a key new driver of higher yields.

  • Treasury doubles bond buybacks to cap yields The Treasury unexpectedly doubled its buybacks of long-term bonds to $4 billion per operation, aiming to support demand and lower yields. The 10-year yield fell to about 4.65% before rebounding.

    This is the main counterweight pushing yields down.

  • Treasury-Fed tension raises uncertainty Treasury's intervention conflicts with Fed Chair Warsh's plan to shrink the Fed's balance sheet, raising questions about Fed independence. Investors demand extra yield for the uncertainty, keeping upward pressure on long-term rates.

    This policy clash adds a new layer of uncertainty affecting yields.

▼2▲1

Weak jobs and retail data cut rate-hike odds, pulling 10-year yields down

  • Weak July jobs report slashes September rate-hike odds US employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, far below the expected gain, and prior months were revised lower. Investors now see only about a 30-44% chance of a September Fed rate hike, down from 67%. Lower hike odds make existing bonds more attractive, pulling the 10-year yield down.

    This is the main new force this period: a weak labor market directly reduces the chance of higher rates, which lowers the 10-year yield.

  • Weak retail sales and consumer confidence reinforce rate-hike retreat July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first drop in nine months, and consumer confidence weakened. Traders now assign a 71% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September. Fading growth worries reduce the need for higher rates, pushing the 10-year yield down.

    This is a new development that further reduces rate-hike expectations, adding downward pressure on yields.

  • Rising oil and Iran tensions stoke inflation fears, lifting yields Oil rose for a fourth day as the US prepared new sanctions and a blockade against Iran, reducing hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy costs feed inflation worries, pushing the 10-year yield up to around 4.68%.

    This is a new geopolitical development that adds upward pressure on yields by raising inflation concerns.

▲2▼2

Fed rate-hike fears push yields up, then weak jobs data pulls them back

  • Fed signals possible rate hikes as inflation stays high Fed Chair Warsh said he has 'no tolerance' for inflation and is ready to raise rates in September if inflation accelerates. Three officials already voted to hike. Higher rates make existing bonds less attractive, pushing the 10-year yield up.

    This is the main new force driving yields higher this period.

  • Warsh cuts communication, markets demand higher compensation Warsh gave no rate guidance and may reduce the number of yearly Fed meetings. Investors call this a credibility problem and are selling long-dated bonds, demanding extra yield for the added uncertainty. The 30-year yield hit its highest since 2007.

    It explains why long-term yields rose even without an actual rate hike.

  • US-Iran ceasefire hopes cut oil prices and bond yields Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran and talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz progressed, sending oil down sharply. Lower energy costs ease inflation fears, so the 10-year yield fell to about 4.67% as investors bought bonds.

    It is the main new force pulling yields down this period.

  • Weak jobs report slashes odds of a September rate hike The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, far below the expected gain. Investors now see about a 60% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September, up from 33% a week earlier. The 10-year yield fell to 4.61%.

    It is the latest and most direct new data point pulling yields down.

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