Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited

Today's standout stocks span several key themes. Thai Airways is racing to clear more than 5,600 pieces of unclaimed baggage within 72 hours after 100% of its flights were delayed and it had to cancel a combined 60 flights per day. The airline has brought Airports of Thailand, or AOT, onto its team, while mobilising military personnel and hiring outside contractors at full capacity. Meanwhile, PLANB shares jumped nearly 7% after its board approved subscribing to 46.28% of iCare's capital increase, worth 860 million baht, extending its mobile insurance business in partnership with COM7. Analysts expect the deal to add 200 million baht in recognised profit per year, creating 11-13% upside. They recommend buying with a target price of 8.10 baht, calling it a Top Pick in the sector. MMM has launched mortgage, sale-with-right-of-redemption, and housing loans through its subsidiary Keha Songkhro Capital, aiming to grow its loan portfolio to 700 million baht by 2028 under its Jump+ plan. TASCO confirmed it holds 1.52 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil inventory, enough to last through the first quarter of 2027, helping lift asphalt output by 10-15%. Brokers recommend buying with a target price of 18.50 baht and expect a 5.9% dividend yield. STECON expects 2026 revenue to exceed its target of 35 billion baht, with brokers forecasting 2027 revenue could reach 50-60 billion baht, driven by data centres, state megaprojects, and its infrastructure investment business.

Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited, or TASCO, holds about 1,520,000 barrels of crude oil from Venezuela after importing a second cargo of roughly 900,000 barrels in August 2026. The crude was procured through lot-by-lot contracts via intermediaries, with no long-term agreement with the Venezuelan authorities, and is sufficient to cover demand through about the first quarter of 2027. The resumption of Venezuelan crude imports has helped TASCO raise its asphalt yield from the crude by about 10-15% compared with crude from other sources. Management is maintaining its revenue target for the second half of 2026 at about 2.5 billion baht, up 88% from the first half and up 117% from the same period a year earlier. Kasikorn Securities has maintained its 2026 net profit forecast at 1.619 billion baht, up 48.72% year on year, and 1.841 billion baht in 2027, with a buy rating and a target price of 18.50 baht. Yuanta Securities (Thailand) has maintained its 2026 profit forecast at 1.563 billion baht, up 57.3% year on year, and 1.935 billion baht in 2027, up 23.8% year on year, with a fair value of 19.40 baht, and expects a 2026 dividend of 1 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 5.9%.

Analysts at Krungsri Securities estimate that flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces over the past weekend will hit the economy by about 0.16% of GDP, assuming the floods disrupt activity for one week, with Bangkok as the main economic area accounting for 34% of GDP. They said the groups that benefit once floodwaters recede include retailers of home repair equipment such as HMPRO, GLOBAL and DOHOME, construction materials players such as SCC and TASCO, and contractors expected to gain from a push for more state projects to tackle flooding. On dividend forecasts for 2026, analysts at Finansia Syrus Securities upgraded HMPRO from "hold" to "buy" with a target price of 7.20 baht and an expected dividend of 0.36 baht. Krungsri maintained its "buy" rating on GLOBAL with a target price of 8.80 baht and an expected dividend of 0.29 baht, and kept its "buy" rating on DOHOME with a target price of 4.40 baht and an expected dividend of 0.06 baht. KGI Securities (Thailand) recommended "buy" on SCC with a target price of 305 baht and an expected dividend of 8.50 baht, while analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) maintained their "buy" rating on TASCO with a target price of 19.40 baht and an expected dividend payout of 1 baht for 2026.

Global Securities, or GBS, estimates that the Thai stock market index (SET Index) will continue to fluctuate this week, projecting a trading range of 1,600-1,630 points amid pressure from tensions in the Middle East that have driven crude oil prices sharply higher and from elevated US government bond yields. Ms. Wilasinee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director of Global Securities Co., Ltd., stated that the main negative factor came from the Dow Jones index, which fell 161.61 points, or 0.31%, while WTI crude oil futures rose 2.45 dollars, or 2.7%, to close at 94.61 dollars per barrel after Iran-backed Houthi forces fired missiles at Saudi Arabia. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors now assign a 69% probability to the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.00-4.25% at this month's October meeting, up from 55.4% the previous week. Domestically, attention must be paid to the Constitutional Court's ruling on September 28 regarding the use of barcodes and QR codes on ballot papers. On the positive side, the US Senate voted against the War Powers Resolution, and the US and China agreed to extend their trade truce until January 10, 2027. Meanwhile, Mr. Watcharern Jongyanyong, Research Director at Global Securities, recommends that investors speculate on stocks that benefit from post-flood repairs, namely GLOBAL, DOHOME, HMPRO, TASCO, DCC, and DRT.

Krungsri Securities estimates that the flood situation in Bangkok, caused by a strong low-pressure cell in the Bay of Bengal that has strengthened the southwest monsoon, will have a negative short-term impact on the Thai stock market. Krungsri economists estimate the impact at about 0.16% of GDP, assuming the floods affect 25% of Bangkok's GPP for one week, since Bangkok is the main economic area accounting for roughly 34% of GDP in 2024. They estimate that the SET is likely to fall by 0.25-0.5% in response, given the limited impact. The research team notes that the main severity occurred during the weekend holiday, and that mechanisms to reduce the impact now exist, such as working and studying from home, while the industrial sector, including industrial estates, has not yet seen any significant impact. However, the monsoon trough passing through the main EEC area must be monitored. As for dam water levels on 27 September 2026, they stood at 77% nationwide, compared with 88% on 27 September 2011, and water discharge through Nakhon Sawan province remains about 2-3 times lower than in 2011, leading to the assessment that compounding effects from water released from the North are unlikely to occur in 2026, with the risk picture significantly lower than in the severe flood year of 2011. Stocks that benefit in the short term include consumer staples retailers such as CPALL, mass transit, and groups that benefit from home repairs such as HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, SCC and TASCO. Groups viewed negatively include insurance, hire purchase, banking, tourism, aviation, property, restaurants and industrial estates. Krungsri picks Global Plays Energy Security stocks, namely TOP, PTTGC, IVL and the components maker DELTA, ahead of trading gains in consumer staples retailer CPALL, and recommends accumulating tourism stocks AWC and ERW on dips.

DAOL Securities (Thailand), or DAOL, assessed the flood situation in Thailand, which has now spread to 25 provinces covering 128 districts, affecting the SET Index in the short term from negative sentiment toward economic activity. However, the impact on the operating results of listed companies is expected to be limited. Bangkok and its vicinity faced continuous heavy rain during 25-27 September 2026, causing flooding in many areas, and the government declared Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and Samut Prakan as special public holidays on 28-29 September to ease the impact and reduce travel by the public. The research department stated that the groups expected to benefit after the water recedes include the Home Improvement group such as HMPRO, GLOBAL and DOHOME from demand to repair homes and replace damaged goods, with a boost expected in 4Q26E. NEO, which derives 100% of its total revenue from consumer products, will benefit as consumers must buy new household items. TFMAMA benefits from consumers stockpiling goods, and TASCO benefits from road repairs after the water recedes. The groups expected to be negatively affected include the Ground Transport group such as BEM and BTS from a possible short-term decline in passenger volumes, although the waiver of expressway tolls until 29 September at 24.00 will have a limited impact because the Expressway Authority of Thailand will compensate the companies. The tourism group ERW, CENTEL, AAV and AOT is seen as slightly negative from travel concerns. The Energy group such as OR and PTG is expected to see a temporary drop in downstream oil sales volumes, with total daily retail oil sales volumes of OR and PTG at approximately 29.4 million and 15.8 million liters in 2Q26, and the number of service stations in the central, eastern and western regions of the two companies accounting for approximately 45% and 37% of their total service stations. The insurance group TIPH, TVH, MTI, BKI and AYUD must pay compensation for the floods, and the Commerce group such as CPALL, CPAXT and BJC faces rain and flooding pressuring traffic, forcing some branches to temporarily close, although stockpiling of essential goods will help offset some of the impact.

An analysis of the construction contractor sector by Asia Plus Securities indicates that the passage of the annual budget expenditure bill for fiscal year 2027, worth 3.788 trillion baht, marks the start of a new round of accelerated public investment, with investment spending reaching approximately 789 billion baht, or 20.8% of the total budget. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Transport is preparing to push forward a total of 262 investment projects covering roads, railways, electric trains, ports, and airports. Local budgets of nearly 395 billion baht will help increase construction and maintenance work in the regions. The brokerage views the construction contractor group as the most direct beneficiary and assesses that Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited, or CK, and STECON Group Public Company Limited, or STECON, are the most closely linked to the acceleration of budget disbursement. It recommends "Buy" on CK with a fair value of 24 baht and "Buy" on STECON with a fair value of 23 baht. For the construction materials group, it views SCC, SCCC, and TASCO as beneficiaries, with TASCO set to gain support from budgets for road and highway network maintenance. Meanwhile, Pi Securities has a consistent view, saying it is beginning to see positive signals for a new round of government auctions. Since the start of 2026, CK has signed new work that is largely additional work from existing projects worth only about 870 million baht, causing its backlog to fall from more than 168 billion baht early in the year to about 146 billion baht at the end of the first half of 2026. However, the direction of new work has become clearer after the Cabinet resolved on September 1, 2026, to approve the continuation of three double-track railway projects with a combined value of more than 106 billion baht, comprising the Chumphon-Surat Thani section worth 36.892 billion baht, the Surat Thani-Hat Yai Junction section worth 61.534 billion baht, and the Hat Yai Junction-Padang Besar section worth 8.371 billion baht. Bidding is expected to open in early 2027. These projects are part of Phase 2 of the double-track railway program, which has six projects in total. Pi Securities views the opening of bidding for double-track railway projects worth more than 100 billion baht as an opportunity for CK to bid for all of them, expecting the three projects to be divided into about five contracts. If it wins new work, this would be upside to Pi Securities' 2027 revenue forecast of 42.134 billion baht, since the forecast does not yet include the new work to come. In addition, CK has the opportunity to win two other large projects related to Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited, or BEM: the installation of systems for the Purple Line South electric train, worth approximately 30 billion baht, and the Double Deck expressway project, worth approximately 35 billion baht. Pi Securities maintains its "Buy" recommendation on CK with a fair value of 23.10 baht, based on 1.3 times its 2026 book value.

Yuanta Securities issued an analysis of Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited, or TASCO, stating that the resumption of crude oil imports from Venezuela opens long-term upside, but the third-quarter outlook remains challenging. The firm said asphalt sales volumes will slow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, weighed down by weak domestic sales as the country enters the rainy season and as government budget disbursements slow toward the end of fiscal year 2026. Even so, remaining investment budgets awaiting disbursement are still as high as 239 billion baht, or 31% of the total investment budget. Overseas sales were flat to slightly weaker, as international asphalt prices rose above 700 US dollars per tonne, the highest in 10 years, prompting customers to delay orders. The company maintained its 2026 sales target of 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes, having already achieved 0.53 million tonnes in the first half, or roughly 44% to 48% of the full-year target. Its construction contracting business is expected to be steady compared with the second quarter, with management maintaining its target of recognizing about 2.5 billion baht in revenue in the second half of 2026, up 88% half-on-half and 117% year-on-year, and with a backlog of 6.2 billion baht at the end of the second quarter of 2026. As for Venezuelan crude imports, the company brought in its first lot of 600,000 to 700,000 barrels in late July 2026 and its second lot of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels in mid-August 2026. Both were lot-by-lot contracts arranged through intermediaries, not long-term contracts directly with PDVSA. The resumption of these imports will lift asphalt yield by about 10% to 15% compared with using crude from other sources. The research team maintained its 2026 profit forecast at 1.563 billion baht, up 57.3% year-on-year, and its 2027 forecast at 1.935 billion baht, up 23.8% year-on-year. It also maintained its end-2027 fair value of 19.40 baht and expects a 2026 dividend of 1.00 baht per share, a dividend yield of 5.9%, and therefore kept its buy recommendation.

The Cabinet has approved the second phase of the southern dual-track railway project, comprising three routes with a total investment of 106,798.32 million baht. Bidding is expected to open between late 2026 and early 2027. Brokers view that CH. Karnchang (CK) will benefit the most, given its expertise in large-scale state infrastructure projects, and is expected to secure at least 27,000 million baht in contracts, while STECON is expected to secure around 21,000 million baht. The three routes include: Chumphon–Surat Thani (36,892.32 million baht), Surat Thani–Hat Yai Junction (61,534.55 million baht), and Hat Yai Junction–Padang Besar (8,371.45 million baht). The government will bear all costs. This approval will bolster CK's backlog and provide upside to its share price from the current target of 23 baht. Other construction contractors such as ITD, UNIQ, and NWR also have opportunities to participate in the bidding, while construction material companies like SCC, SCCC, and TASCO will benefit from increased demand for cement and steel.

The mobile Cabinet meeting in Songkhla Province, scheduled for August 31 to September 1, 2026, is set to consider several large-scale projects that could generate investment in the South for years to come, especially the second phase of the Southern dual-track railway with a total budget of approximately 104.466 billion baht, covering three routes with a combined distance of 534 kilometers: Chumphon–Surat Thani (30.423 billion baht), Surat Thani–Hat Yai Junction–Songkhla (66.271 billion baht), and Hat Yai Junction–Padang Besar (7.773 billion baht). If approved, this will connect the rail network from the lower central region to the Malaysian border, reduce logistics costs, and enhance long-term economic potential. Stocks expected to benefit include construction contractors such as CK, STECON, ITD, UNIQ, and NWR, as well as construction material companies like SCC, SCCC, and TASCO. Additionally, there are proposals from five southern provinces totaling 199 projects with an initial budget of over 57 billion baht, which could support water management and utility stocks such as FLE, UBA, and WIIK, as well as tourism and retail groups like AOT, AAV, CENTEL, ERW, SHR, CPALL, and CRC. However, most benefits are medium to long term and depend on actual approvals and bidding. Furthermore, there are projects for the Songkhla Lake Bridge and the Lanta Island Bridge with a combined budget of approximately 6.7 billion baht, expected to be completed by 2029, but the main contractor is a foreign company, CHEC Construction (M) Sdn Bhd, so Thai stocks may only get subcontracting work or domestic material procurement. Investors should monitor approval resolutions, funding sources, contract divisions, and actual work secured by each company, as these are key factors determining the impact on profits.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the renewed tensions in the Middle East, following the US attack on an island in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to retaliate by striking US allies in the UAE and Jordan, will pressure global financial markets. However, the structure of the Thai stock market, with its high proportion of commodity stocks, will help support the index. Foreign investors have accumulated net sales in the Thai stock market totaling 24.565 billion baht, while in the futures market (TFEX), foreigners have continued to accumulate net short positions for two consecutive months, totaling over 51,000 contracts. This puts downward pressure on the baht, which recently stood at 33.16 baht per US dollar, benefiting export, tourism, and hospital groups, especially stocks like STA (+7.01%), KCE (+6.14%), TASCO (+5.95%), as well as IRPC and SPRC, which have shown notable gains. The research department recommends a Selective Buy strategy for dividend-paying stocks and upstream energy, highlighting BBL, trading at a P/BV of only 0.6 times, cheaper than the group average of 1.2 times; PTT, benefiting from higher crude oil prices; and BCH, with a recovering earnings outlook. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to today's European CPI data, expected at +3.3% YoY, and US CPI on September 11, expected to remain steady at +3.4% YoY, as well as Tesla shares, which rose +5.5% ahead of the Cybercab launch event.

TASCO shares rose 2.38% to 17.20 baht after news that Venezuela is preparing to leave OPEC. Krungsri Securities views this as positive in the long term, as it reduces policy and sanctions risks on crude oil supply from Venezuela. Although in the short term, supply may not increase immediately due to infrastructure problems. Meanwhile, TASCO has just resumed buying oil from Venezuela for the first time in six years, with the first delivery of 600,000 barrels at the end of July. This is expected to help increase supply and margins in the long term, with potential for profit to rise to 2-2.2 billion baht per year. Krungsri Securities maintains a "Buy" recommendation with a 2027 target price of 18.9 baht.

Kasikorn Securities said the construction materials group reported combined normalised profit of 2.2 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 11 percent from a year earlier, supported by a higher gross margin despite weak sales. Profit fell 11 percent from the previous quarter due to seasonal demand and more holidays. Combined normalised profit for the first half of 2026 was 4.8 billion baht, up 28 percent from a year earlier, representing 61 percent of the full-year estimate of 7.9 billion baht. Combined revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was 24 billion baht, up 6 percent from a year earlier and 1 percent from the previous quarter. Gross profit margin rose to 28.2 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from a year earlier and 0.3 percentage point from the previous quarter, as higher selling prices fully offset higher oil-linked raw material costs. Such raw materials account for 35 to 45 percent of cost of sales. The selling, general and administrative expense to revenue ratio rose to 17.9 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from a year earlier and 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, due to higher logistics costs. As a result, the normalised profit margin rose 0.4 percentage point from a year earlier to 9.4 percent, but fell 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. Ceramic tile sales at Dynasty Ceramic and SCG Decor fell 6 percent and 7 percent from a year earlier respectively, because they have a high proportion of revenue from the private sector where demand is weak, while normalised profit fell 4 percent and 5 percent respectively. Tipco Asphalt revenue rose 20 percent from a year earlier on higher asphalt prices following the war between the United States and Iran, lifting normalised profit by 22 percent. TOA Paint sales rose 4 percent on higher market share and inventory stocking, but normalised profit rose only 3 percent because of higher selling, general and administrative expenses and Myanmar-related costs. Eastern Polymer Group delivered the strongest performance, with sales up 9 percent and normalised profit up as much as 43 percent on demand for insulation products in the United States. Kasikorn Securities maintained a neutral view on the sector, focusing on stock selection. It picked Eastern Polymer Group as a top pick with a buy rating and a target price of 6.70 baht, and TOA Paint with a buy rating and a target price of 19.0 baht, because they have stronger demand than other companies. Eastern Polymer Group benefits from strong demand for insulation products in the United States, while TOA Paint's market leadership supports stable paint demand.

Kasikorn Securities raised its target price for TASCO to 18.50 baht from 14.20 baht, while maintaining a buy rating, after the company regained access to Venezuelan crude oil. The broker expects this to support higher refinery utilization and sales volumes, although the benefit is likely to be smaller than before sanctions were imposed. Kasikorn Securities lifted its 2027 and 2028 profit forecasts by 27 percent on higher sales volumes, but kept its 2026 estimate unchanged because the benefit is unlikely to be significant this year. Third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to ease from the peak seen in the first half of 2026, as asphalt spreads remain above normal levels but are narrowing. TASCO offers a dividend yield of 6.3 percent, and further upside could come from favorable terms for Venezuelan crude procurement, which would support a re-rating toward the ten-year average price-to-book ratio of 2.2 times.

Yuanta Securities Thailand maintains a buy recommendation on Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited, or TASCO, and has raised its end-2027 target price to 19.40 baht, reflecting higher earnings estimates and gross margin assumptions. The research team sees upside of about 25.2 percent. TASCO, which was previously a major customer of PDVSA, has a chance to resume importing crude oil from Venezuela after reports that PDVSA has begun signing direct crude purchase agreements with refiners and oil producers in the United States and other regions. Most recently, Phillips 66 and Reliance Industries reportedly resumed buying crude from PDVSA in May 2026 after a seven-year pause, while TASCO and Valero Energy are expected to potentially return to direct crude purchases in the coming months, although neither company has confirmed this. Yuanta Securities views that if TASCO can import Venezuelan crude within 2026, it would be a key support for gross margins in 2027, because Venezuelan crude has an asphalt yield of around 70 percent, higher than the average of only about 50 percent from other sources, which would significantly improve cost efficiency and production rates. The research team estimates that every 50 basis point increase in gross margin would add about 112 million baht to profit. It has therefore raised its 2027 gross margin assumption to 12.1 percent and increased its 2027 asphalt sales estimate by 4.8 percent to 28 billion baht, in line with the public infrastructure investment trend. As a result, the 2027 normalized profit estimate has been raised by 18.9 percent to 1.9 billion baht, representing growth of 23.8 percent from the previous year. In addition, Yuanta Securities expects TASCO to pay a 2026 dividend of 1.00 baht per share, implying a dividend yield of about 6.5 percent, which remains high compared with peers. Although the research team expects second-quarter 2026 sales and earnings may not yet stand out, it forecasts that third-quarter 2026 will return to growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, driven by accelerated government budget disbursement and the long-term support from the potential resumption of Venezuelan crude imports. It therefore maintains a positive view on TASCO's earnings outlook.

TASCO shares jumped 7.48% to 15.80 baht after Krungsri Securities raised its 2026-2027 profit forecasts by an average of 38%, citing higher-than-expected asphalt prices and gross margins. The new profit forecast is 1.6 billion baht for 2026 and 1.7 billion baht for 2027. The company reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 420 million baht, up 5% from a year earlier but down 9% from the previous quarter, as asphalt prices rose 31% year-on-year while sales volume fell to 250,000 tonnes from 280,000 tonnes in the prior quarter. The broker expects the second-half trend to remain similar to the first half, supported by the construction season in Thailand and Indonesia and asphalt prices that remain high. Current-quarter overseas prices stand at 606 dollars per tonne, up 44% from a year earlier. The company also disclosed progress on resuming oil purchases from Venezuela under one-off contracts of 600,000 barrels starting in early August, which has improved production yield to around 70%, compared with 50% from other sources, and is seen as medium-to-long-term upside for profit, with potential to reach 2 to 2.2 billion baht per year. The broker maintains a speculative buy recommendation and raised its target price to 18.9 baht, based on 2.0 times price-to-book value.

Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited, or TASCO, reported second-quarter 2026 results with total revenue of 7.76 billion baht and net profit of 420 million baht, an improvement from the same period last year due to higher asphalt selling prices caused by asphalt shortages from Middle East conflicts, and higher construction business revenue from a larger backlog. However, compared with the first quarter of the same year, profit fell by 39 million baht because asphalt sales declined, as most road maintenance projects in Thailand were completed early in the quarter and foreign contractors slowed purchases due to high prices. For the first six months of 2026, the company posted total revenue of 15.244 billion baht and net profit of 879 million baht, up from the previous year, driven by higher selling prices for asphalt and petroleum products, a reversal of inventory allowances, and growth in construction business revenue, partially offset by increased losses from petroleum product price hedging contracts. In addition, after the United States allowed purchases of crude oil from Venezuela in the first quarter, the company bought Venezuelan crude and imported it for refining in Malaysia last week, and plans to continue sourcing Venezuelan crude with its partners.

TASCO shares rose more than 5% after brokers assessed the possibility that the company could resume importing crude oil from Venezuela, supporting better gross margins and production yields. At 10:12 a.m., the stock was up 5.71% at 14.80 baht, with trading value of 246.52 million baht. Yuanta Securities Thailand noted that TASCO was once a key customer of PDVSA before US sanctions in 2019, and Venezuela is now exporting an average of 1.0 to 1.2 million barrels per day, with South Korean refineries already importing Venezuelan oil for quality testing, a positive signal for TASCO. The broker expects that if imports resume, they would likely start in 2027 or at the earliest by late fourth quarter of 2026, helping boost 2026 profit forecast of 1.56 billion baht, up 57.3% from the previous year, with a fair value of 17.40 baht and a chance to raise the target to 19 to 20 baht.