US Government Bond 5Y

Asia Plus Securities assessed the overall investment picture for the day, saying global stock markets have returned to facing volatility and pressure from inflation risks on both the cost and demand sides. This pushed Brent crude oil prices past 103 US dollars per barrel and drove US government bond yields sharply higher, producing a Bear Flattening signal and raising the odds that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two more times over the remainder of the year, more than the single hike signaled by the Dot Plot. The yield on 5-year US government bonds jumped past 5%, the highest level since 2007, while US stock markets fell by an average of 0.7% to 1.1% on inflation concerns stemming from both oil prices and the September composite manufacturing and services purchasing managers' index, which rose to its highest level in more than five years. The Thai stock market was supported by export estimates for August expected to grow as much as 24.8% year on year, accelerating from 21.6% year on year the previous month. The research team therefore recommends a Selective Buy strategy through Domestic Play stocks and foreign securities depositary receipts that are not tied to the uncertainty of international trade negotiations, focusing on technology stocks with strong individual growth themes, such as META80, which generates clear revenue from the MUSE AI model, and PANW80, which benefits from cybersecurity capital spending and depends less on international negotiations than the semiconductor group. At the same time, the market is watching the Constitutional Court's ruling in the ballot barcode case on 28 September 2026, with three scenarios assessed. Given foreign capital outflows totaling 4.1 billion baht over two consecutive days, the SET index is expected to have limited upside, with key resistance at 1,610 and 1,630 points.