South Korea

US President Donald Trump is pressuring South Korea to speed up its decision on joining the $50 billion Alaska LNG natural gas project, warning that if Seoul does not sign soon, the United States may charge additional costs, or could double them. Trump told reporters on Friday that if South Korea does not want to join the project, that is no problem, but the United States will charge South Korea more, saying that if it does not sign soon, it will double, though he did not specify what would be increased. South Korean media noted this could mean higher tariffs on South Korean goods. The Seoul government confirmed it is still assessing the Alaska LNG project, and that a decision to join will depend on commercial viability and must comply with domestic legal procedures. Trump also said via Truth Social on Friday that he had announced an additional Enhanced Oil Recovery project worth $8.4 billion, but South Korean media, citing the country's industry ministry, said the $8.4 billion oil project was not included in the agreement previously reached between the Seoul government and Washington, and the ministry is examining the details and contacting the US side through trade channels to seek further clarification.

South Korea reported that the share of crude oil imported from Saudi Arabia fell below 30% of total crude imports in the first eight months of this year. Data from Korea National Oil Corporation and the Korea Petroleum Association showed that Saudi crude accounted for 29.9% of total imports in the January-to-August period, down from 30.91% in January to July. Although Saudi Arabia remains South Korea's largest source of crude oil imports, this marks the first time in five years that the share has dropped below 30%. The last such occurrence was in 2021, a period when global crude supply was disrupted amid Middle East tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic. Industry experts warn that if the downward trend continues, Saudi Arabia's share of South Korea's crude imports could fall to third place or lower this year, and may even drop below the record low set in 1986. Meanwhile, South Korean refineries have increased crude imports from other regions, especially the United States, which accounted for 20.12% of total crude imports in the January-to-August period, after that share exceeded 20% for the first time on a cumulative basis in the January-to-April period.

Amprius Technologies announced in late September 2026 that it entered into a US$75 million fixed-price Other Transaction Agreement with the U.S. Government for Project acCELLerate, alongside a separate U.S. Department of War IBAS grant, to build secure domestic high-energy density battery production for small unmanned aerial systems. The awards position Amprius to retrofit an existing South Korea-linked EV battery line into a U.S.-compliant facility capable of producing 12 million silicon-anode cells annually for NDAA-compliant defense customers. The company had already lifted its August 2026 guidance to at least US$140 million in full-year revenue with a narrower net loss. Amprius' narrative projects US$415.0 million in revenue and US$53.6 million in earnings by 2029, yielding a US$22.12 fair value, while the most cautious analysts assume about US$362 million of revenue and roughly US$40 million of earnings by 2029. The growing dependence on government-backed drone programs also concentrates risk should procurement cycles shift.

U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to double import tariffs on South Korean goods if the South Korean government does not quickly reach a conclusion on joining a $54 billion liquefied natural gas, or LNG, export project in the state of Alaska. Trump disclosed the matter to reporters before departing for a campaign event, and made clear that if South Korea does not act on the agreement promptly, the United States will impose import tariffs at double the rate. The move comes after White House officials said the $54 billion infrastructure project is part of South Korea's investment plans in the United States. However, South Korean representatives countered that joining the project requires a rigorous economic feasibility assessment first. The conflicting stances could add pressure to the trade and diplomatic relations of the two long-standing allies, after the two sides spent months negotiating tens of billions of dollars in South Korean investment, originally framed as one of the key conditions in exchange for the United States agreeing to lower import barriers. In addition, the Alaska LNG project is a key political play for the U.S. government ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, because Republicans hope this large energy project will help stimulate the economy in Alaska, a state where the race for a Senate seat is fiercely contested. However, Trump's use of retaliatory tariff measures still raises questions about his legal authority, since earlier this year the courts issued a ruling that significantly limited the president's power to set tariffs unilaterally, meaning this tariff threat could face intense legal scrutiny if it is actually enforced.

IonQ announced a real-time quantum error correction decoder that runs complex workloads without slowing quantum computations. The company reported new deployments at the NVIDIA Accelerated Quantum Research Center, integrating its hardware into NVIDIA's quantum research stack, and disclosed a partnership with SDT in South Korea to support quantum computing access for regional enterprises and researchers. IonQ said the decoder handles benchmark circuits with up to 408 logical qubits and more than 31.5 million quantum operations with just 0.02% added time, running on a single off-the-shelf CPU while the quantum system keeps operating. IonQ, a US semiconductor player valued at about $17.4b, builds quantum computing systems for clients in the United States, Switzerland, and other regions. Investors will watch how many Superion 256 deployments move from contract to installed and active systems at sites like NVIDIA's research center, FIU and SDT's data center from 2027.

President Lee Jae-myung, the leader of South Korea, warned that South Korea may take additional measures against Ukraine if the Kyiv government refuses to acknowledge the existence of a confidentiality agreement covering the handover of two captured North Korean soldiers and refuses to issue a formal statement of apology. The South Korean leader said via the X platform that if the Ukrainian side continues to deny the facts and refuses to offer a public apology, South Korea will take additional measures, while expressing deep regret over the case in which Ukrainian officials mentioned the possibility of a military clash between North Korea and South Korea in the near future, which South Korea views as provocative and as incitement to war on the Korean Peninsula. This tension erupted after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the leader of Ukraine, revealed to the United Nations General Assembly in late September that Ukraine had handed over two North Korean soldiers captured as prisoners of war while fighting for the Russian military to the South Korean authorities. South Korea later accused Ukraine of violating a bilateral confidentiality agreement drawn up to protect the safety of the soldiers, while Ukrainian officials insistently deny that the two sides ever had such a confidentiality agreement together.

South Korea's Ministry of Data and Statistics reported that the consumer price index, or CPI, a key gauge of inflation, rose 2.9% in September from a year earlier, in line with analyst expectations, after rising 3.1% in August. The report said diesel prices surged 20% and gasoline prices rose 11.8%, with South Korea heavily dependent on energy imports. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products edged down 0.3%, led by declines of 9.2% in napa cabbage and 15.2% in apples. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% in September from a year earlier, in line with expectations, after rising 3.4% in August. The still-high inflation figures are expected to support the Bank of Korea, or BOK, in pressing ahead with tight monetary policy, after the BOK board raised interest rates at consecutive meetings in July and August, leaving the policy rate at 3%. The BOK forecasts CPI will rise 2.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, while core CPI is expected to be 2.5% both this year and next year.

South Korean Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung-kwan said at a press conference on the 1st that the Alaska liquefied natural gas project announced by U.S. President Trump as a South Korean investment in the United States would only proceed on the premise of commercial viability, stressing that Seoul will not invest if profitability cannot be expected, and that this is what the two governments agreed. Kim explained that he expressed regret to U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick over premature media reports suggesting the investment had already been decided, and that Lutnick replied that efforts would be made to ensure the project's success. The official statements issued by the two governments note that, regarding the commercial viability requirement, a decision on whether to proceed with the project will be made if conditions under domestic law are satisfied.

S&P Global said in a survey released on October 1 that South Korea's manufacturing activity expanded at its strongest pace in four months in September, with the country's manufacturing purchasing managers' index, or PMI, at 53.9, up from 52.3 in August, reaching its highest level since May and staying above the 50 mark for a tenth consecutive month. A reading above 50 indicates that business activity is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The survey said the expansion was driven by export demand growing at its fastest pace in fifteen and a half years, led by the semiconductor and automotive sectors, with new export orders rising the most since March 2011 and standing out in European and Asian markets. Output grew at its fastest rate since March 2021, and new orders increased at their quickest pace since February 2021. In addition, South Korean manufacturers' confidence in the business outlook for the coming year improved to an eight-month high.

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has reiterated that South Korea's participation in the Alaska LNG project has not been concluded, even though U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the two countries had agreed to cooperate on the project, valued at around 50 billion dollars. The Seoul government said the decision still depends on commercial viability and legal requirements. The move follows Trump's disclosure of South Korea's plans to invest up to 200 billion dollars in U.S. energy infrastructure, covering nuclear power plants, natural gas plants in Texas, and possibly the Alaska LNG project. Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday, September 30, U.S. time, that the two countries had agreed to cooperate on the Alaska LNG project, worth approximately 50 billion dollars, and called South Korea's overall investment plan one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in U.S. history. Lee Jae-myung posted on X on Thursday, October 1, local time, that participation in the Alaska LNG project must depend on financial feasibility and compliance with legal requirements, while investment in each nuclear plant must also pass a project-by-project commercial viability assessment. The more detailed U.S. energy investment plan includes a 6,472-megawatt natural gas plant project in Encinal, Texas, worth 22.3 billion dollars, which will supply power to a data center located on the same site. It will be developed by Related Companies and NextEra Energy, with the first phase expected to begin commercial operation in 2029 and full operation phased in by 2032. In addition, 120 billion dollars has been allocated for a plan to build eight large nuclear reactors in the United States, split into 100 billion dollars in construction costs and 20 billion dollars in contingency reserves. The nuclear agreement was signed by the governments of both countries, as well as Westinghouse Electric, Korea Electric Power Corp. and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, and opens the way for South Korean companies to consider taking a significant minority stake in Westinghouse, with terms still subject to business negotiations.

South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources announced that the country's exports jumped 83.5% year on year in September, reaching a record high of 120.9 billion dollars, driven by chip exports that surpassed 60 billion dollars for the first time. Imports rose 26% to 71.09 billion dollars, giving South Korea a record trade surplus of 49.85 billion dollars in September. In the semiconductor sector, a key pillar, exports soared 263% to 60.3 billion dollars, lifted by higher shipment volumes and rising prices amid sustained demand for memory chips. Petroleum product exports surged 72% to 7.22 billion dollars, and petrochemical products rose 5.1% to 3.95 billion dollars. Cosmetics exports jumped 31.4% to 1.51 billion dollars on growing demand from China, the United States and the European Union. Automobile exports, however, fell 5.5% to 6.05 billion dollars, weighed down by fewer working days during the Chuseok holiday and a decline in used-car exports. By country, exports to China surged 123% to 26 billion dollars, topping 20 billion dollars for a fourth consecutive month, while exports to the United States soared 137% to 24.33 billion dollars. Exports to Southeast Asian countries rose 92.6% to 21.29 billion dollars, and exports to the European Union increased 20.9% to 8.65 billion dollars.

The United States Department of Commerce and the Government of the Republic of Korea have selected Related Companies and NextEra Energy Resources, in partnership with Lewis Energy Group, to develop Project Star, a $22.3 billion energy infrastructure campus in Encinal, Texas. The project will create 6.47 GW of natural gas generation to directly support an adjacent 5 GW digital infrastructure campus that Related Digital is developing, and will deliver excess power generation back to the grid. The investment is expected to create an estimated 8,400 jobs during peak construction and approximately 170 permanent jobs once operational, with the adjacent data center campus also creating hundreds of permanent jobs. The energy campus will be owned jointly by the Republic of Korea and the United States under the structure of the joint trade agreement, and will be built and operated by the Related and NextEra Energy Resources joint venture team, with Lewis Energy providing associated infrastructure including gas. The project is expected to be developed in phases, with initial generating resources anticipated to come online as early as 2029, subject to required permitting and approvals.

Qualcomm announced in September 2026 that it had renewed its global patent license agreement with Apple, effective April 1, 2027, a move that significantly reduces near-term uncertainty around its QTL royalties. The renewal comes alongside a multi-year custom chip partnership with Amazon's AWS, which Qualcomm is counting on to underpin its data center goals of US$5.0 billion in fiscal 2027 and US$15.0 billion in fiscal 2029. Qualcomm also presented at the Humanoids Summit in Seoul and is expanding into data center and robotics solutions as it pushes to pair stable licensing income with new AI and cloud computing revenue streams. The company's narrative projects $60.0 billion in revenue and $11.5 billion in earnings by 2029, requiring 10.8% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.2 billion earnings increase from $9.3 billion today. The biggest current risk, according to the analysis, is that diversification spending rises faster than new AI and cloud revenues materialize, while rising in-house chips at major OEMs could still pressure Qualcomm.

Lynx Equity Strategies is positioning long on Micron Technology ahead of the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, due today after the market close, with analyst KC Rajkumar forecasting revenue of $525 billion in calendar year 2028 at 80% gross margins. Rajkumar argues the Street has missed that Micron benefits from Meta's Muse agentic workloads, as AI demand shifts from token generation on GPU and XPU hardware to longer-running agentic tasks on CPUs, moving the memory center of gravity from GPU-attached HBM to CPU-attached lpDDR5x. He also contends that Samsung has chosen to prioritize elevated profitability over market share, keeping supply tight even as data-center demand visibility extends into 2029 and 2030, which reduces the risk of a supply glut in 2028 and 2029. Lynx maintains its $1,325 price target on Micron but says its conviction has strengthened and that significant upside remains, modeling calendar 2027 revenue of roughly $350 billion at an 85% gross margin and about $250 in earnings per share, then calendar 2028 revenue of $525 billion at an 80% gross margin and $325 in EPS. The firm reversed its stance from three months ago, when it stayed on the sidelines going into Micron's May quarter earnings call, and now expects management to extend demand visibility and confirm that the supply and demand imbalance persists into 2028 and beyond, which Rajkumar calls likely to be a catalyst for the stock to make fresh highs.

North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency reported that North Korea denied any involvement in the landmine incident in the Demilitarized Zone, or DMZ, which injured three South Korean soldiers on September 21, and stated that South Korea must compensate for what it called a fabricated story. Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said in a statement on September 29 that North Korean soldiers never crossed the border, and warned that North Korea would retaliate mercilessly if South Korean forces opened fire on North Korean troops in the border area. The statement came after the South Korean military disclosed preliminary assessment results on September 28 that there was a high possibility that North Korea laid the mines on the southern side of the Military Demarcation Line, or MDL, in the DMZ, with South Korea warning it would take retaliatory measures if the final investigation results confirmed that North Korea laid the mines. Kim Yo Jong accused South Korea of fabricating an investigation result without foundation, and pointed out that the construction of barriers in the area on North Korea's southern border was part of border security reinforcement begun two years earlier, which she described as a full exercise of sovereign authority. A similar landmine incident previously occurred in the Demilitarized Zone in 2015, which caused tensions between the two countries to rise sharply.

South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance expects government tax revenue in 2026 to reach 478.6 trillion won, or about 353 billion dollars, up 28% from the previous year and 63.2 trillion won, or 15.2%, above the estimate used for this year's supplementary budget. The increase is driven mainly by strong profits in the semiconductor industry amid the artificial intelligence boom, special dividend payouts, and brisk stock market trading. If the estimate holds, South Korea's annual tax revenue will top 400 trillion won for the first time and come in about 21% above the previous record set in 2022, rising 104.7 trillion won from a year earlier. The higher revenue is a key factor in President Lee Jae-myung's plan to channel the benefits of chip industry growth into long-term investment. The government has proposed raising spending next year by 12.8% to 820.9 trillion won, the fastest increase on record. Under the plan, a new Future Response Fund would receive about 162.3 trillion won, of which 45.4 trillion won would support projects already included in next year's spending plan, with the remainder helping to reduce the need for new government bond issuance. The rise in tax revenue also reflects reliance on the earnings of the semiconductor industry, which is cyclical and can be highly volatile, potentially posing a risk to government revenue if the chip industry cycle slows in the future.