Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency and the anchor of the entire digital-asset market. It has a fixed supply of 21 million coins and serves as an alternative to government-issued money. Bitcoin acts as crypto's reserve asset and risk barometer. Its four-year halving, which cuts new supply, has historically framed the market's boom-bust cycle.
Hawkish Fed Under Warsh The Federal Reserve, led by new Chair Warsh, scrapped forward guidance and raised the odds of interest rate hikes, strengthening the dollar and pressuring Bitcoin below $60,000.
This monetary policy shift was a primary force driving Bitcoin's downturn.
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Strategy's Potential Bitcoin Sales Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, faced a $13 billion paper loss and opened the door to selling up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin, signaling a shift from its buy-only strategy.
This major holder's potential selling added significant supply overhang and bearish sentiment.
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Record ETF Outflows Record ETF outflows exceeded $4 billion in June as capital rotated into AI stocks, accelerating Bitcoin's price decline.
ETF outflows directly reduced demand and liquidity for Bitcoin.
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Analyst Target Cuts and Limited Positives Citi cut its year-end target to $82,000, with some analysts warning of a drop to $40,000–$45,000. Offsetting positives were limited: BlackRock and Strategy added holdings, and Adam Back's new treasury company planned to buy 23,500 BTC.
This captures the bearish analyst sentiment and the few counterbalancing positive actions.
Latest
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Bitcoin's quarter ends strong on ETF buying, US reserve lockup, SEC custody plan
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US locks up government Bitcoin for 20 years The US announced a 20-year lockup of government-held Bitcoin in its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, meaning Washington will not sell that Bitcoin for two decades. Taking that supply off the market tightens the amount available and supports higher prices over time.
A concrete new policy that removes supply and signals official long-term holding.
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SEC proposes easier crypto custody for funds The SEC proposed rules letting investment advisers and regulated funds hold crypto for clients, including self-custody and state trust companies as custodians. This opens a path for more mainstream money to hold Bitcoin, supporting demand and price.
New regulatory step that widens who can custody crypto, a structural demand driver.
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Weak jobs data cools Fed rate-hike odds The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, with prior months revised lower, so traders now expect the Fed to stop raising rates and possibly cut. Lower rate pressure makes safe assets less attractive and helps Bitcoin, which gained about 35% over three months.
A shift in the main macro force that has been pressuring Bitcoin all period.
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Corporate buying collapses, ETF flows turn choppy Glassnode says listed companies bought only about 5,900 BTC in three months, one-fifteenth of July's pace, and many sit at a loss above $80,500. ETF inflows also swung to outflows in mid-September, showing the rally's demand base is thinner than it looks.
The main counterweight: real demand from companies and funds has weakened even as price rose.
Q3 2026
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Bitcoin rebounds 35% in Q3 despite thin demand and regulatory setbacks
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Record ETF inflows and Treasury buybacks fuel rally Bitcoin rallied from ~$63K to $80K in August on Treasury buybacks, Trump's crypto support, and record ETF inflows, then September saw ~$1B daily ETF inflows and a US strategic reserve with a 20-year lockup.
This explains the main positive forces that drove Bitcoin's price up during the quarter.
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Fed rate hike and failed Clarity Act weigh on prices The Fed's first rate hike since 2023 and the failed Clarity Act in September hurt sentiment, while July's heavy ETF outflows ($8.9B) and Strategy's authorized $1.25B sales added early pressure.
This highlights the key negative factors that caused volatility and limited gains.
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Security breaches and corporate demand collapse The Coldcard hack, a $320M Liquid breach, Strategy's $10B paper loss, and collapsing corporate demand left the rally's demand base thin, despite global regulatory wins.
This shows the underlying weaknesses that threatened the sustainability of the rally.
Strategy's high-profile STRC preferred stock is nearing the critical $100 level, a threshold that may once again open the door to an important line of capital for the Bitcoin treasury juggernaut to grow its cryptocurrency position. The development centers on the preferred instrument tied to the company's Bitcoin accumulation strategy, with the $100 mark serving as the key reference point for whether that capital channel reopens.
Morgan Stanley Builds Bitcoin ETF Stake With Steady Buying Streak
Morgan Stanley is making a mark in the Bitcoin ETF market as it has maintained a long streak of steady Bitcoin purchases regardless of the unstable market conditions. The bank's Bitcoin stash is piling up, with a $1 Billion milestone now in view. The buying has continued through unstable market conditions, underscoring the firm's persistent accumulation of Bitcoin ETF exposure.
Strategy Adds 334 BTC for About $24 Million, Resuming Third Straight Week of Weekly Purchases
Bitcoin rebounded to $86,970 on October 5 after Strategy disclosed it had acquired an additional 334 BTC worth about $24 million. Michael Saylor said on X that Strategy recorded $21 billion in valuation gains on digital assets in the third quarter of 2026, acquired 334 BTC the previous week, and bought back about $176 million worth of STRC shares. As of October 4, the company held 848,000 BTC and about $5.7 billion in dollar-denominated assets. With this purchase, bitcoin buying has continued for a third consecutive week, extending a trend that resumed in late August after a ten-week pause from June 7 to August 23. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs also recorded total inflows of $3.219 billion over 11 of the past 12 trading days. In prediction markets, Kalshi puts the probability of bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by January 2027 at 38%, while Polymarket sees only a 12% chance of it reaching $100,000 during October.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Pure Bitcoin-Treasury Vehicles ▲Demand
MSTR · Capital · Positive Strategy acquired 334 BTC for ~$24M, resuming weekly purchases and extending its bitcoin accumulation strategy.
BTC · Demand · Positive Strategy's continued BTC purchases plus $3.219B of spot bitcoin ETF inflows over 11 of 12 days signal strong demand for bitcoin.
Kalshi · · Neutral Kalshi is only cited for its prediction-market probability of bitcoin exceeding $100,000, not a company-specific development.
Polymarket · · Neutral Polymarket is only cited for its prediction-market probability of bitcoin reaching $100,000 in October, not a company-specific development.
Metaplanet announced on the 5th that it acquired a net 1,000 BTC in the third quarter of its December fiscal year, bringing its holdings to 44,000 BTC as of September 30 and making it the world's second-largest holder. During the quarter it sold 10,000 BTC while purchasing 11,000 BTC; preliminary figures show the sales averaged 12,470,098 yen per BTC for a total of 124.7 billion yen, while purchases averaged 13,626,928 yen for a total of 149.896 billion yen. The sales are intended to demonstrate that Bitcoin can be converted to cash as needed as the company aims to obtain a credit rating, and the sale amount exceeds the total principal balance of interest-bearing debt such as bonds and borrowings, though no repayment or redemption was carried out. On the same day, the company revised its capital allocation policy again, setting a guideline to hold Bitcoin as a core asset at roughly 85–90% of total assets while allocating about 10–15% to a strategic investment framework. The strategic investment framework will be allocated across three uses: M&A toward building a financial platform, investment in assets expected to generate stable earnings, and investment funds for the asset management business, and the company also newly introduced a net interest income strategy that invests funds raised through means that do not dilute common shareholders into assets including overseas Bitcoin-related securities.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Pure Bitcoin-Treasury Vehicles ▲Capital
3350.JP · Capital · Neutral Metaplanet revised its capital allocation to 85–90% Bitcoin and 10–15% strategic investments, while selling 10,000 BTC to demonstrate liquidity for a credit rating.
BTC · Demand · Positive Metaplanet bought 11,000 BTC in Q3 and holds 44,000 BTC as its core asset, signaling continued institutional accumulation.
Bitcoin Nears First 50-100-200 Day Moving Average Crossover Since 2025
Bitcoin is approaching a major bullish signal, with its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages just one crossover away from a fully bullish alignment, which would be the first since 2025. The 50-day average currently sits at 79,495 dollars, clearly above the other two, while the 100-day average at 79,493 dollars is rising and close to overtaking the 200-day average at 79,539 dollars. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the Indian exchange Giottus, told CoinDesk that the crossover would restore the ordering of the averages for the first time since the previous alignment on June 24, 2025, when Bitcoin surged more than 40% to 87,000 dollars in the third quarter before stalling around 85,000 dollars amid a rising US dollar index. Historically, such alignments have led to major rallies, such as on October 27, 2020, when prices traded around 13,600 dollars and climbed to more than 64,000 dollars in May 2021, while the June 2025 alignment lasted 97 days but lifted prices only from about 106,000 dollars to 112,000 dollars. Subburaj said the crossover reinforces the trend case but does not guarantee continuation, and the real test is whether Bitcoin's spot price can hold above the 50-day average during a corrective pullback.
BTC · · Positive Bitcoin is nearing a bullish 50/100/200-day moving average crossover, a technical signal historically followed by rallies, though the article notes it does not guarantee continuation.
August domestic crypto spot trading doubles in volume, up 13% in value: JVCEA statistics
According to August cryptocurrency trading statistics published on October 2 by the Japan Virtual and Crypto Assets Exchange Association, domestic spot trading volume rose to 2.6338 trillion units, roughly double the previous month and the highest level in one year and five months, since March 2025. Trading value also increased 13.4% from the previous month to 76.43 billion yen. Prices rose sharply in August, with the NADA Bitcoin Index showing bitcoin up 20.7% from about 10.33 million yen at the end of July to about 12.47 million yen at the end of August, while the NADA Ethereum Index showed ether up 27.3% from about 306,000 yen to about 389,700 yen. The rally took hold from August 19 onward, after the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would double the size of its long-term government bond buybacks, pushing down U.S. long-term interest rates, and U.S. President Trump acknowledged that the U.S. government is discussing a plan for large-scale bitcoin purchases. Money also returned to U.S. spot bitcoin and ether ETFs, with combined net inflows of about 2.6 billion dollars in the week through August 21, the largest since October 2025. Margin trading value rose 19.0% from the previous month to 746.5 billion yen, while user deposit balances increased 22.2% to 3.5111 trillion yen. Meanwhile, users' bitcoin holdings fell 2.9% from the previous month to 170,344 BTC, the lowest level since March 2025, while the value of those holdings rose 22.2% to 2.1396 trillion yen on higher prices, suggesting that profit-taking selling emerged during the rally.
BTC · Monetary · Positive Bitcoin rose 20.7% in August after the U.S. Treasury doubled long-term bond buybacks, pushing down U.S. rates, and Trump acknowledged a plan for large-scale government bitcoin purchases.
ETH · Monetary · Positive Ether rose 27.3% in August, driven by the same U.S. rate-lowering Treasury buyback move and renewed inflows into U.S. spot ether ETFs.
IMF approves $138 million loan disbursement to El Salvador after Bitcoin treasury review
The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, has approved El Salvador's access to a loan of $138 million after completing the second and third reviews of its $1.4 billion loan program on October 1. This resulted in the immediate approval of a disbursement of 101.96 million Special Drawing Rights, or SDR, equivalent to $138 million. The IMF's Executive Board also approved a waiver for a performance criterion that was not met, linked to Bitcoin accumulation, after staff took corrective measures and restored the program's commitments. The IMF stated that no further Bitcoin accumulation is anticipated beyond documented donations, maintaining restrictions that prevent the government from resuming Bitcoin purchases with public funds under the program. El Salvador currently holds approximately 7,794.37 BTC, valued at around $666.1 million, and the IMF has also called on El Salvador to improve disclosure of public-sector crypto holdings, strengthen regulation and governance for digital asset service providers, and amend its digital asset law, alongside a commitment to avoid further Bitcoin accumulation with government funds.
BTC · Regulation · Negative IMF program bars El Salvador from further Bitcoin purchases with public funds and demands tighter crypto regulation and disclosure, removing a sovereign buyer.
Ether Surges 70% to Outpace Bitcoin in Q3, but Liquidity Plunges to 35-45% of Bitcoin's
Data from CoinDesk shows that Ether, or ETH, which trades at 2,714.94 dollars, outperformed Bitcoin, or BTC, which trades at 86,063.87 dollars, in the third quarter. Ether's price jumped 70% this quarter, beating Bitcoin's 42% return, but it became harder to trade because liquidity thinned out. Between July 6 and September 30, Ether's median daily market depth was only 35% to 45% of Bitcoin's, according to a CoinGecko report, compared with at least 60% in the same period last year, which CoinGecko called a complete decline from last year's figures. Ether had depth of 13 million dollars to 14 million dollars within 0.15% of the market price, and CoinGecko noted that ETH still retains reasonably decent liquidity within this band, with most exchanges maintaining depth of more than 1 million dollars on each side. The shrinking liquidity is not unique to Ether, because Solana, or SOL, a major rival, has also seen its overall liquidity contract sharply since 2025, with depth within 2% of the market price falling from about 28 million dollars on each side of the order book last year to about 20 million dollars this year. Meanwhile XRP, a cryptocurrency focused on payments, held steady with total depth of about 30 million dollars, but its order book leans toward the buy side, with nearly 18 million dollars in buy orders against 14 million dollars in sell orders. And although XRP's market value is about 40% larger than SOL's, it has less depth within 2% of the price, because SOL still trades 25% more than XRP on a typical day, CoinGecko said.
SOL · Supply · Negative Solana's order-book liquidity contracted sharply since 2025, with depth within 2% falling from ~$28M to ~$20M per side.
BTC · · Neutral Bitcoin is the benchmark Ether outperformed (42% vs 70%) and whose liquidity Ether's depth is compared against; no independent driver for BTC itself.
XRP · · Neutral XRP held steady at ~$30M total depth but its order book leans buy-side; no clear directional driver stated.
CoinGecko · · Neutral CoinGecko is only cited as the source of the liquidity report, not a subject of the news.
Bitcoin Holds Above $85,000 as Markets Eye ETF Buying After Jobs Report
Bitcoin recovered to hold above the $85,000 level, trading at $85,276, up 0.83% over 24 hours, but still below the $86,000 level it touched before the jobs numbers were released. Research from Glassnode indicated that the strongest short squeeze buying occurred at 04:20 UTC on October 2, with $50 million in short liquidations within 10 minutes, which came 8 hours ahead of the release of the non-farm payrolls figures. Meanwhile, open interest rose by $2.1 billion in the 24 hours before the announcement, then fell by $1.5 billion after the report came out. On the spot Bitcoin ETF side, US funds recorded net inflows of $102 million on October 1, according to data from Farside Investors. Glassnode also assessed that the probability of the Fed raising rates by another 0.25% at its October 28 meeting fell from 66% on September 28 to just 22% as of October 2, after the September jobs report showed an increase of only 29,000 positions and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The market is still awaiting the ISM September services report, scheduled for release on Monday, October 5, at 10:00 a.m. US Eastern Time.
Bitcoin Briefly Tops $87,000 After Weak U.S. Jobs Report
Bitcoin briefly broke above $87,000 after the September employment report released on October 2 by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics came in far below expectations. September nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 from the previous month, well short of the market forecast of 89,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%; the July and August figures were revised down by a combined 60,000, with July turning negative. After the release, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell to around 5.17%, and according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the October 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting has fallen sharply to 22.1% from 64.2% a week earlier. Bitcoin, however, was blocked by sell orders near its September high of $87,400 and failed to set a new high. QCP Capital noted that the rally was driven by supply and demand and carries structural fragility, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also turned higher late in the session, leaving expectations for a rate hike at the December meeting still deeply entrenched. In Japan, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting will be held on October 29-30, immediately after the FOMC, and attention is needed on how this affects the domestic crypto asset market through the yen exchange rate.
BTC · Monetary · Positive Bitcoin briefly topped $87,000 after the weak September jobs report sharply lowered Fed rate-hike odds.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Negative The 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell to around 5.17% on the weak jobs report, though it turned higher late in the session.
QCP Capital · · Neutral QCP Capital commented that the rally was supply-demand driven with structural fragility, but the article gives no clear directional driver for QCP itself.
CME · Monetary · Neutral CME's FedWatch tool is cited showing rate-hike odds falling to 22.1%, but CME itself is only a data source, not a subject of the story.
Michael Saylor Hints at Massive New Bitcoin Buy With 'More Orange Than Ever'
Strategy founder and chairman Michael Saylor published data on the company's Bitcoin strategy with the concise comment: "More orange than ever." The post, which appeared on the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, signals a potential massive new Bitcoin purchase by the firm. Saylor's terse remark accompanied the release of the company's Bitcoin strategy data, though no specific purchase amount or dollar figure was disclosed in the source material. The comment echoes Saylor's long-running practice of teasing Strategy's Bitcoin acquisitions ahead of official announcements.
Bitcoin Wallets Holding 1 BTC or More Fall by 14,000
The number of Bitcoin wallets holding at least 1 BTC fell by about 14,000 between September 16 and October 1, dropping from roughly 985,000 to about 971,000. The data, reported by CoinGlass, suggests holders may have sold or reassessed their positions as the price rose nearly 50% from its August 19 level to approach 87,300 dollars. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about 2.9 billion dollars between September 17 and 30, with another 134.4 million dollars flowing in during the first two business days of October. U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September, released on October 2, rose by 29,000 from the previous month, far below the market forecast of 90,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% and average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.1% month over month, strengthening the view to 85% that the Federal Reserve will hold policy rates steady at its October 28 meeting. Bitcoin, however, remained below 85,000 dollars and was unable to clearly break through and hold above 86,000 dollars.
BTC · · Neutral Article reports mixed Bitcoin signals: 14,000 fewer 1+ BTC wallets and ETF inflows of ~$2.9B, with price unable to hold above $86,000, but no single stated cause.
SEC Approves First 3x Leveraged Crypto ETPs as Bitcoin Holds Near $85,000
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday approved a Cboe BZX rule change allowing the exchange to list six triple-leveraged exchange-traded products from Volatility Shares, a first-of-its-kind step that could expand leveraged exposure to the world's largest cryptocurrency. The products target three times the daily performance of bitcoin, ether, gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas, with the bitcoin and ether products providing leveraged exposure through futures rather than directly holding the cryptocurrencies. The decision does not mean the products are immediately available for trading, as registration requirements must still be completed before shares can be publicly offered. Bitcoin traded at $84,860.5 as of 01:29 ET, little changed over the past 24 hours, after briefly climbing above $87,000 earlier in the week. The approval adds another potential route for investors seeking cryptocurrency exposure after the SEC separately proposed changes to crypto custody rules this week, a proposal that was a major focus for Bitcoin markets on Friday.
Citi Lifts Bitcoin Forecast to $113,000 as Fed Pause Bets Build
Citi analyst Alex Saunders raised his base-case price forecast for bitcoin to $113,000 from $82,000. The token hovered near $85,000 on Friday as bond yields briefly eased and seasonal trends turned supportive, with ether also rising as strategists pointed to signs of a bullish trend for cryptocurrencies. Fundstrat head of digital assets Sean Farrell said seasonality is becoming a tailwind, noting October has historically been crypto's strongest month with around an 80% win rate, and that the setup shifted in a bullish direction over the past couple of days. Federal Reserve rhetoric has become somewhat more measured, and a weak jobs report has reduced expectations for further rate hikes, with more than 75% of market participants now expecting policymakers to hold rates steady at their October meeting. Farrell cautioned that continued stress in sovereign bonds and credit could lead to a short-term drawdown in crypto, but said the more stress priced in without breaking bitcoin, the better the forward risk/reward becomes, and pointed to a recent decline in 2-year real yields that could support the token by reducing the appeal of short-term government debt.
BTC · Monetary · Positive Citi lifted its bitcoin forecast to $113,000 as weak jobs data and measured Fed rhetoric cut rate-hike expectations, easing yields.
C · Capital · Positive Citi analyst Alex Saunders raised his base-case bitcoin price forecast to $113,000 from $82,000.
ETH · Monetary · Positive Ether rose alongside bitcoin as strategists pointed to a bullish crypto trend amid easing yields and Fed pause bets.
Fundstrat Global Advisors · · Neutral Fundstrat's Sean Farrell is quoted on crypto seasonality and risk/reward, but the firm is only a commentary source, not a subject of the news.
Block's Cash App Launches Bitcoin Bonus Feature, Dorsey Urges Users to Opt In
Block CEO Jack Dorsey urged users on Wednesday to opt in to Cash App's new Bitcoin bonus feature, writing "turn it on" while quoting the platform's announcement. The feature lets users earn weekly rewards of up to 2% in BTC annually simply by holding Bitcoin in the app, with rewards funded directly and no lockup, lending, staking, or moving of users' BTC, keeping holdings available for withdrawal at any time. The bonuses are taxable, and users must opt in through the Bitcoin tab in the app to become eligible. Cash App serves as Block's primary consumer-focused ecosystem, and its second-quarter volume grew 17% year over year to $56.5 billion, driven by the Visa-powered Cash App Card and buy-now-pay-later credit, while Consumer Lending origination volume grew 59% year over year to $18.9 billion. Block has also placed a significant bet on Bitcoin's utility as a medium of exchange, deploying payment capabilities within its Square point-of-sale system.
Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Falls to 2023 Lows as Price Reclaims $87,000
Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest level since 2023, a decline driven by the asset's recent sharp price rally. After a brief recovery, Bitcoin reclaimed its previous high around $87,000, and that move has fueled demand for the asset. The shrinking reserve balance points to investors pulling coins off exchanges, a shift that tightens the supply available for trading.
Tether-backed Utexo to issue USDT on Bitcoin in October
CoinDesk reported on October 2 that Tether-backed Utexo plans to issue the US dollar-pegged stablecoin USDT on the Bitcoin network within October. The company's co-founder told CoinDesk that it has obtained a commercial license covering the issuance of USDT and the use of Tether's trademark. USDT was born on Bitcoin in 2014, but its main circulation base has since shifted to Ethereum and Tron, and this plan marks an effort to expand its use on Bitcoin again after more than a decade. Utexo is building a mechanism that allows USDT to be sent without disclosing transaction details, and plans to support direct exchange between Bitcoin and USDT as well as loans collateralized by Bitcoin, enabling exchanges, wallets, and payment providers to handle USDT on Bitcoin. The technology underpinning this mechanism is RGB, which handles assets on Bitcoin; it transmits and receives without placing transaction details on a public ledger, with the parties involved verifying them, which differs from Ethereum and Tron, where balance changes and transaction contents are recorded on a public ledger. Its approach to illicit use also differs from USDT on Ethereum: the co-founder explained that freezing assets in the same way is technically impossible, so the company will blacklist assets linked to sanctioned entities or illegal activity and share that information with exchanges and others, and blacklisted assets cannot be withdrawn as USDT to Ethereum or Tron. After issuance, the company plans to move forward with support for the Lightning Network.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Stablecoin Issuers & Distribution ▲Technology
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Stablecoin Issuers ▲Technology
Utexo · Regulation · Positive Utexo obtained a commercial license covering USDT issuance and Tether trademark use, enabling its planned October launch.
USDT · Demand · Positive Tether-backed Utexo will issue USDT on Bitcoin, expanding USDT's circulation and adoption to a new network.
Tether · Technology · Positive Utexo is building RGB-based private USDT transactions on Bitcoin with blacklisting for illicit assets, advancing Tether's USDT technology footprint.
BTC · Technology · Positive Utexo plans to issue USDT on Bitcoin and support BTC-USDT exchange, loans collateralized by Bitcoin, and Lightning Network support, expanding Bitcoin's utility.
Orbix INVEST waives fees to 0% for OBX-BTC investments, capped at 1 million baht
Orbix Invest has launched a promotion waiving the entry fee for its orbix BTC Flagship strategy, or OBX-BTC, cutting it from the usual 0.4% to 0% for investments of at least 100,000 baht per transaction and no more than 1 million baht per person, from October 1 to 30, 2026. Dr. Thanapoom Damrak, Managing Director of Orbix Invest Co., Ltd., said the Bitcoin market has passed its bottom and entered a new upward cycle after continuous institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States drew net inflows of 3.52 billion dollars in August, the highest level of the year, while total net assets stood at more than 99 billion dollars, and the number of major asset managers holding the ETFs rose 150% over the year. Bitcoin most recently closed at 86,620 dollars, its highest level since January, and rose 25% in August, its best month since November 2024. Although prices have recovered, they remain about 32% below the all-time high of roughly 126,000 dollars. About 20.09 million bitcoins, or roughly 96% of the 21 million maximum supply, have already been mined and are in circulation. The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, its first rate hike since 2023, yet Bitcoin still rose after the decision. Dr. Thanapoom advised investors to invest gradually and consistently through DCA to average costs and reduce the impact of volatility, and stressed that year-end price estimates from various financial institutions remain wide, ranging from 38,000 to 170,000 dollars.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Digital Wealth & Robo-Advisory ▲Pricing
BTC · Demand · Positive Institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs (3.52B in August, highest of year) and rising asset-manager holdings signal strong demand supporting Bitcoin's upward cycle.
Orbix Invest · Pricing · Positive Orbix Invest waived its entry fee from 0.4% to 0% for OBX-BTC investments of 100,000-1 million baht from October 1-30, 2026.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive The Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, pushing the effective federal funds rate yield up.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Neutral Article mentions the Fed's rate hike but does not state the 10Y Treasury yield's direction; only the policy rate is discussed.
SEC custody proposal lifts institutional outlook as Bitcoin holds below $85,000
Bitcoin held below $85,000 on Friday after briefly topping $87,000, with a new U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proposal on crypto custody adding to expectations of broader institutional participation. The cryptocurrency was trading at $84,612.4 as of 21:55 ET, down 0.35% after reaching an intraday high of $87,219, its first move above $87,000 since Sept. 23. The SEC proposed changes to custody rules that would allow investment advisers and funds to directly hold certain digital assets when a qualified third-party custodian is unavailable, subject to safeguards, with the proposal entering a 60-day public comment period following publication in the Federal Register. Bitcoin also drew support from softer U.S. economic data, as September nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 against expectations of 90,000, prompting declines in Treasury yields and the dollar. The move triggered about $142 million of Bitcoin short liquidations over 24 hours, compared with roughly $29 million in long positions, according to Coinglass data. Separately, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor detailed how the company finances its Bitcoin-focused business, with its STRC preferred shares carrying a 12% annualized dividend rate and a shareholder vote scheduled for Oct. 28 on a switch to daily dividend accruals, while Supercycle Finance said it plans to raise up to $75 million through a proposed offering, with most proceeds intended for Bitcoin purchases.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Pure Bitcoin-Treasury Vehicles ▲Regulation
BTC · Regulation · Positive SEC custody proposal allowing advisers/funds to directly hold digital assets with qualified custodians boosts institutional participation outlook for Bitcoin.
MSTR · Capital · Positive Article details Strategy's Bitcoin-focused financing, including 12% STRC preferred dividend and Oct. 28 shareholder vote on daily dividend accruals.
THORChain Activates Zcash Liquidity Pool, Enabling Direct Bitcoin to Zcash Swaps
Cross-chain protocol THORChain has activated a liquidity pool for Zcash, bringing direct Bitcoin to Zcash swaps live. All network validators successfully synced with the Zcash blockchain following a scheduled network churn. The move opens a direct trading route between Bitcoin and Zcash through THORChain's cross-chain infrastructure.
RUNE · Technology · Positive THORChain activated a Zcash liquidity pool and validators synced with the Zcash blockchain, expanding its cross-chain swap infrastructure.
ZEC · Demand · Positive Zcash gains a direct swap route with Bitcoin via THORChain's new liquidity pool, improving its tradability/access.
BTC · Demand · Positive THORChain's new Zcash pool opens a direct Bitcoin-to-Zcash trading route, adding a use case/demand channel for Bitcoin.
US Adds Just 29,000 Jobs in September as Fed Rate Hike Odds Cool
The US economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below the roughly 90,000 economists had forecast, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% against an expected 4.1%. Prior months were revised sharply lower, with July cut by 31,000 to 10,000 and August reduced by 29,000 to 133,000, leaving combined employment 60,000 lower than previously reported. Wage growth also slowed, to 0.1% monthly and 3% annually. Scott Melker said the weak labor data and downward revisions could cool the chances of the Federal Reserve hiking rates in coming meetings, arguing the Fed may instead have to cut to support the job market. He also noted Bitcoin posted its best quarter in years while the bond market had its worst, with 10-year yields well over 5% and Bitcoin still rising.
BTC · Monetary · Positive Weak September jobs data and downward revisions cool Fed rate-hike odds and raise cut expectations, a macro tailwind for Bitcoin, which the article notes posted its best quarter in years.
Micron Earnings, Soft Jobs Data and Bitcoin Rally Lift Bull Market
Micron Technology delivered another outstanding earnings report Wednesday evening, with revenue, earnings and margins all surging and management offering another strong outlook as demand continues to overwhelm available supply. According to UBS estimates, memory represented roughly 14% of total AI capital spending in 2025, a share expected to jump to 37% in 2026 and 64% by 2027. The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, while July was revised down to a 10,000-job loss and August was revised lower to 133,000, with July and August payroll growth reduced by another 60,000 jobs combined; St. Louis Fed estimates put the breakeven rate needed to keep unemployment stable somewhere around 15,000 to 87,000 jobs per month. Bitcoin has gained roughly 35% over the past three months compared with about 10% for the Nasdaq 100, reversing its earlier summer underperformance. The Nasdaq is printing fresh all-time highs while the S&P 500 knocks on the door of record highs, as softer labor data pulls Treasury yields lower and eases pressure on the Fed to raise rates again.
Weak US Jobs Data and Stablecoin Shift Shape Crypto Market
The crypto market entered Friday evening, October 2, 2026, in a phase of powerful strategic accumulation, with the industry's total market capitalization standing in the $2.94–$3.03 trillion range. U.S. labor market data came in weak, as Non-Farm Payrolls rose by just 29,000 against expectations of $84,000–$90,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%. The headline also points to the biggest USD stablecoin returning to Bitcoin after 12 years.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Stablecoin Issuers & Distribution Capital
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Stablecoin Issuers Capital
BTC · Monetary · Positive Weak US Non-Farm Payrolls (29k vs 84k-90k expected) and rising unemployment raise expectations of Fed easing, a macro-money tailwind for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Surges Above $86,000 After Citi Raises Target to $113,000
Bitcoin jumped more than 2.2% to trade at around $86,150, kicking off the Uptober round that the market had been hoping for, with the price briefly touching $86,150 before holding above $85,000. The broader crypto market gained 1.9%. The main driver came from Citi, which raised its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $82,000 to $113,000, citing stronger crypto activity, a supportive macroeconomic environment, and returning ETF demand. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $102.7 million on October 1, reversing outflows of $148.7 million the previous day, after an earlier streak of cumulative inflows totaling $3.1 billion before outflows hit on September 30. New York Fed President John Williams said there was no urgent need to raise interest rates again, prompting CME FedWatch data to show the odds of a rate hike in October falling to about 44%. The rally also liquidated roughly 77,543 traders over 24 hours, with total liquidations of $324.68 million. Traders are watching whether the price can break through the recent swing high of $86,837.30; a sustained hold above that level could open the way to $87,000, $95,000, and $100,000, but a drop below $85,000 could send it back down to the $83,000 zone.
BTC · Capital · Positive Bitcoin jumped over 2.2% to ~$86,150 after Citi's raised price target, supportive macro, and returning ETF inflows.
C · Capital · Positive Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $82,000 to $113,000, an analyst valuation call that is the article's main driver.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $2.65 Billion in September Inflows, Second-Highest Since October 2025
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded net inflows of $2.65 billion in September, the second-largest monthly inflow since October 2025, according to data from The Block. The inflows were down from $3.52 billion in August but remained well above levels seen throughout the past year. Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs attracted $832.43 million in September, compared with $1.85 billion in August, marking the second-largest monthly inflow since August 2025. Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs continued on the first day of October at $102.7 million, while Ether ETFs saw outflows of $55.4 million. Dominic John, an analyst at Zeus Research, told The Block that the ETF inflows indicate institutional demand has not faded and point to a more sustainable recovery, adding that traders will watch ETF inflows alongside key U.S. economic data. The jobless claims report on October 8 will provide another set of data on the U.S. labor market, while inflation data and Fed commentary could shift interest rate expectations.
Bitcoin Rises Above $85,000 on Safe-Haven Buying Amid French Debt Crisis
Bitcoin climbed into the $85,000 range on safe-haven buying driven by the French government debt crisis. The spread between French and German 10-year government bonds widened sharply from 1.12% to 1.4% over three days starting September 29, when France announced its largest-ever bond issuance for 2027, reaching levels not seen since the Greek crisis of 2012. As a result, safe-haven buying flowed into U.S. Treasuries, and that momentum carried over into bitcoin. The U.S. 10-year yield fell sharply from 5.34% to 5.21%. In the market, expectations for an October rate hike have dropped from 70% to 30% following comments from New York Fed President Williams and the core PCE deflator, and depending on today's employment report, bitcoin could clearly break above the upper end of its range.
SEC Proposes New Rule Allowing Funds to Hold Crypto for Clients
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, has proposed new rules that would make it easier for investment advisers and regulated funds to hold crypto assets on behalf of clients. The SEC announced the proposal on Thursday, October 1. It sets out a specific framework for the custody and safekeeping of crypto assets by registered investment advisers, investment companies, and business development companies. The proposal would open the door to self-custody of crypto assets under certain conditions, and would also allow state-regulated trust companies to act as custodians of crypto assets for clients and regulated funds. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said existing regulations cannot adapt quickly enough to the rapid expansion of digital assets, which has now grown into a market worth several trillion dollars. The move comes after the Clarity Act, a bill aimed at establishing a broad regulatory structure for the crypto market, stalled in the Senate in September. The SEC will accept public comments for 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. Meanwhile, the crypto market is beginning to recover, with Bitcoin up more than 40% from its July low.
081180.KQ · Regulation · Positive The SEC itself proposed the new crypto custody framework, advancing its own regulatory agenda for digital assets.
BTC · Regulation · Positive SEC proposal to ease crypto custody rules for advisers and funds is a regulatory tailwind for Bitcoin, which is also noted recovering and up 40% from July low.
ISM signals surging US factory costs, risk of Bitcoin falling below $85,000
A report from the Institute for Supply Management, or ISM, dated October 1 said the US manufacturing prices index rose to 77.9, up 6.8 points from 71.1 in August, with 58.6% of respondents reporting higher input prices, compared with 46.2% in August. The manufacturing PMI stood at 54.5, new orders at 55.3 and employment at 52.7. This broader spread of rising input costs increases the risk to Bitcoin's funding backdrop if investors price in higher interest rates ahead of the October 2 employment report. On the latest policy backdrop, the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, raised its target interest rate range by 0.25% to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, and on September 29 New York Fed President John Williams said another increase could be appropriate late this year if the economy follows his projections. Meanwhile, a study by New York Fed staff in February 2023 found no systematic response by Bitcoin to financial and macroeconomic news, so Bitcoin's direction depends on how investors interpret the employment data and rate expectations.
BTC · Monetary · Negative Surging US manufacturing input prices raise the risk of higher interest rates, pressuring Bitcoin's funding backdrop and risking a drop below $85,000.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive Rising input costs and FOMC's 25bp hike to 3.75%-4% with Williams hinting at more tightening push the effective fed funds rate higher.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Higher inflation and further rate-hike expectations lift the 10-year Treasury yield.
Crypto Rises Even as Clarity Act Fails; Bitwise Praises SEC's New Approach
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of crypto asset manager Bitwise, wrote in a September 30 blog post about why crypto assets rose despite the stalling of the Clarity Act. On September 15, the U.S. Senate voted 49 to 50 against ending debate on a motion to proceed with the bill, after which Bitcoin rose 8% and Ethereum gained 7%. The bill's final wording would have barred exchanges and others from paying stablecoin interest to customers and imposed fines of up to 5 million dollars per violation, but with the bill effectively dead, the GENIUS Act, which regulates only issuers, remains in place, allowing Coinbase and others to keep offering rewards. Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued a five-year "innovation exemption" on September 17 permitting on-chain trading of tokenized U.S. equities, and on September 25 it stated that for a functioning network, merely announcing a token buyback does not by itself establish that the token is a security. Hougan acknowledged the risk that a change of administration in January 2029 could lead the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to alter course, but concluded that crypto "got better rules faster at the expense of long-term certainty."
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Stablecoin Issuers & Distribution ▲Regulation
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Real-World Asset Tokenization ▲Regulation
BTC · Regulation · Positive Bitcoin rose 8% after the Senate killed the Clarity Act, as crypto got better rules faster.
ETH · Regulation · Positive Ethereum gained 7% after the Clarity Act failed and the SEC issued favorable token/innovation guidance.
COIN · Regulation · Positive With the Clarity Act dead, the GENIUS Act remains in place, letting Coinbase keep offering stablecoin rewards.
Bitwise Asset Management · · Neutral Bitwise's CIO is quoted analyzing why crypto rose despite the Clarity Act stalling, but no company-specific impact is stated.
Citigroup Raises 12-Month Bitcoin Forecast to $113,000
Citigroup has raised its 12-month price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum, CoinDesk reported on October 1. In a report dated September 30, Citi lifted its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000, and also revised its Ethereum forecast upward to $3,028 from $2,240. The bank cited increased activity in the crypto market, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and renewed inflows into ETFs as reasons. Citi expects that as advisors and brokers gradually increase their allocations to Bitcoin, inflows into ETFs and similar products will continue steadily, though more gradually than before, and it anticipates $5 billion of inflows over the next 12 months. On the regulatory front, Citi noted that while the U.S. Senate rejected a procedural vote 49 to 50 on September 15 to begin consideration of the crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act, the Securities and Exchange Commission subsequently issued a series of rules, easing pessimistic sentiment in the market. Citi also pointed out that momentum in the crypto market has recovered, helped by a weaker dollar after the U.S. Treasury expanded buybacks of long-term government bonds.
Bitcoin Notches Strongest Third Quarter Since 2017 Despite Global Bond Sell-Off
Bitcoin posted its strongest third quarter since 2017, gaining 43% across July, August and September even as long-term Treasuries lost approximately 7.7% over the same period. The divergence came as US Treasury yields surged to a 24-year high in a global bond sell-off, with the TLT bond ETF hitting an all-time low and gapping down further. Scott Melker, host of "The Daily Wolf with Scott Melker," noted that bitcoin traditionally performs poorly in the third quarter and that the large move arrived in August, preempting the expected four-year cycle. Melker argued that rising interest rates and dumping bonds, driven by fears of fiscal dominance and monetary irresponsibility, are precisely the conditions bitcoin was built for, which he said explains its outperformance.
BTC · Monetary · Positive Bitcoin gained 43% in Q3, its strongest since 2017, as rising rates and bond dumping driven by fiscal/monetary fears favored it.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive US Treasury yields surged to a 24-year high amid a global bond sell-off, pushing the 10Y yield up.
XRP Hits 10 Million Agentic Payments as Bitcoin Slips Below $84,000
Ripple's XRP notched a milestone of 10 million agentic payments amid an ongoing AI boom, even as the broader cryptocurrency market opened the fourth quarter with a local retreat by the bulls. An attempt to establish a new trend above $85,500 on the back of softer morning PCE inflation data of 3.4%, which came in below expectations, resulted in a false breakout. Bitcoin quickly lost momentum, returning to its September closing level of $83,600, and is now trading around $83,975.76, with dominance of 58.74%. Ethereum has settled near $2,706.26, with a market share of 11.50%.
Bitcoin short-term holders' unrealized gains shrink to 13.7%, driven by rising cost basis, analyst says
The average unrealized gain for Bitcoin short-term holders has narrowed from 15.4% the previous week to 13.7%. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. published the analysis on the 1st. The cause of the contraction lies not in price but in a rising cost basis: the realized price for short-term holders rose 1.2% over the week from September 24, climbing from $72,800 to $73,700. Meanwhile, the realized price for long-term holders fell 0.3% over the same week, from $48,900 to $48,800, which Adler characterized as one of the fastest weekly declines since the start of 2026. He noted that Bitcoin is trading above the cost basis for both holder groups, and said that if the price begins rising faster than the cost basis, the profit cushion will expand.
Bitcoin Steadies After Soft PCE Trims Odds of October Fed Rate Hike
The US PCE price index for August came in below expectations, reducing expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike in October and potentially providing support for Bitcoin and other risk assets. The core PCE index rose 0.2% month over month and 3% year over year, while headline inflation rose 0.3% from July and 3.4% year over year. Brendan Ma, head of investment strategy at Arbitrum Foundation, said the 0.2% monthly rise in core PCE is good news for the Fed, and if September CPI points in the same direction, pressure for an October rate hike eases. Martin Lee, lead market insights analyst at DWF Labs, said the slowing figures could reduce the risk of another rate hike and may shift positioning to the upside, with Bitcoin volatility still near its yearly low while options skew is broadly neutral. Vetle Lunde, an analyst at K33, said Bitcoin is being held back by surging government bond yields, which are pushing investors away from risk, even as the cryptocurrency continues to build a price base after posting its highest weekly close since January. Bitcoin recently traded at about 83,700 dollars, up less than 1% over the past 24 hours. Ether was at about 2,700 dollars and is on track to gain nearly 70% in the third quarter, while XRP fell about 2% to 1.50 dollars but is set to close the quarter up more than 40%. Ilya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, said the broader crypto market still shows signs of profit-taking, with seven-day altcoin transfers into exchanges hitting their highest level since October 2025.
Altcoin exchange deposits hit roughly one-year high, CryptoQuant reports
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said in its weekly report dated September 29 that altcoin deposits into cryptocurrency exchanges are surging. The seven-day total reached about 76,000 deposits, with the number of depositing addresses hitting roughly 51,000, both the highest levels since October 17, 2025. These figures are up about 160% and roughly threefold, respectively, from September 14, and CryptoQuant analyzes the surge in deposits as typically a sign of selling to lock in gains. The report also noted that Bitcoin's upward momentum is fading after it hit $87,400, its highest in about eight months, and that on September 22 the largest single-day profit-taking of the year was recorded at 25,700 BTC. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at 59.18% as of the morning of October 1.
CryptoQuant · · Neutral CryptoQuant is the analytics firm reporting the altcoin deposit surge and Bitcoin momentum data, not a subject of a directional impact.
BTC · Demand · Negative Bitcoin's upward momentum is fading after hitting $87,400, with the year's largest single-day profit-taking of 25,700 BTC recorded on September 22.
Crypto Short Squeeze Liquidates $259 Million as Bitcoin, Ether and XRP Surge
A wave of forced short liquidations swept cryptocurrency derivatives markets after the August core personal consumption expenditures report showed U.S. inflation remains sticky, with prices for more than half of the components in the PCE basket still rising faster than the target rate. According to analytics platform CoinGlass, 73,709 traders were liquidated over 24 hours for a total of $259.12 million in wiped-out positions. The epicenter was an extreme one-hour imbalance: when the data was released, short liquidations surged to $82.61 million while longs lost just $3.09 million, a 2,633% imbalance that turned an ordinary price move into a classic macroeconomic short squeeze. Bitcoin, which holds nearly 59% of the entire crypto market, reached $83,825.17 at the peak of the move, with short sellers accounting for more than $51.69 million in losses over 24 hours, including a single BTC-USDT position forcibly liquidated for $6.91 million on the HTX exchange. Ether contributed $16.39 million to total liquidations despite an intraday dip to $2,679.29, while XRP settled at $1.4975 and accounted for a share of triggered stop orders alongside the most volatile altcoins.
BTC · Monetary · Positive Sticky core PCE inflation data triggered a macro short squeeze, driving Bitcoin to $83,825 and wiping out $51.69M in BTC short positions.
Robinhood to offer crypto perpetual futures in the US
Robinhood announced on September 29 that it will offer crypto perpetual futures to eligible customers in the United States, with trading to become available through its own app within the coming months. The offering covers eight assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Chainlink, and Hyperliquid. Bitcoin and Ethereum will support leverage of up to 10x, while the remaining six assets will support up to 3x. The service will be provided by Robinhood Derivatives, which is registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, through the crypto exchange Bitstamp, and Robinhood will leverage the trading infrastructure from its acquisition of Bitstamp, which closed in June 2025. Trading fees are set at 1 basis point per trade, or 0.01%, through the end of 2026. In the US, the CFTC approved the listing of Bitcoin perpetual futures for the first time on May 29, and the move to offer such products under US regulation is spreading.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Digital Wealth & Robo-Advisory Supply
HOOD · Demand · Positive Robinhood launches crypto perpetual futures for US customers, expanding its product offering and fee revenue.
Robinhood Derivatives, LLC · Regulation · Positive Robinhood Derivatives, CFTC-registered, will provide the perpetual futures service under US regulation.
BTC · Demand · Positive Bitcoin is one of eight assets offered in Robinhood's new perpetual futures with up to 10x leverage, boosting trading access.
ETH · Demand · Positive Ethereum is included among the perpetual futures assets with up to 10x leverage on Robinhood's platform.
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HANetf launches world's first currency-hedged Bitcoin ETC
HANetf, a London-based asset management platform, has listed Exchange-Traded Commodities, or ETCs, that track Bitcoin while hedging against swings in the pound sterling and the euro against the US dollar, with HSBC acting as the currency hedging provider, HANetf said in an emailed statement on Wednesday. The Arrow Bitcoin GBP Hedged ETC, or GBTC, is listed on the London Stock Exchange, while its euro-denominated counterpart, EBTC, is listed on the Xetra market in Frankfurt and on Euronext Paris. HANetf said this is the world's first currency-hedged crypto ETC, bringing a new hedging structure to Europe's crypto ETC market. These products are designed to address the fact that Bitcoin is priced almost entirely in US dollars worldwide, leaving investors in Europe and elsewhere exposed to dollar risk. Currency-hedged Gold ETCs are already an asset class worth 23 billion dollars, accounting for roughly 13% of Europe's Gold ETC market, with HANetf offering products hedged in euros, pounds and Swiss francs.
Bitcoin Tests $82,000 Support, Hinging on Uptrend or Downtrend
Analysts say Bitcoin is facing a key support level at $82,000, which will determine its next direction, whether up or down, after the price surged to a peak above $87,400 on September 21 and then pulled back to test the $82,000 to $83,000 zone. Jeff Anderson, head of the U.S. division at STS Digital, said the $82,000 level is the support to watch, pointing to a Double Top pattern at that level, and warned that a break below support would likely send the price sliding back to the late $70,000 range. Meanwhile, Lexi Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, sees the $81,500 to $83,000 zone as especially important, and a loss of that support is one of three warning signs she is watching, along with ETF fund flows turning negative for several consecutive sessions and 10-year government bond yields still rising. Ilya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, places support slightly lower, saying a sustained break below $80,000 would indicate the market is not ready to push prices higher for some time, but if momentum returns, it could easily send the price above $90,000. Anderson said the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, or PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will be the compass for the market's next move.
BTC · · Neutral Bitcoin is testing the key $82,000 support level, with analysts split on whether it holds for an uptrend or breaks toward the late $70,000s.
Williams Signals Rate Hike Pause, October Odds Fall to 44%
The odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October have reversed course entirely after New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need to rush another rate hike, with the probability of a 25 basis point increase falling from more than 70% to around 44%. Speaking at a lecture at the University at Buffalo, Williams said the Fed's unanimous decision last month to raise rates to a range of 3.75% to 4% gives policymakers enough time to assess incoming economic data before taking their next step. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows the odds of an October hike have fallen to about 44.8%, while the market, including traders on the Kalshi platform, has shifted toward holding rates steady, with that probability rising to 55.2%. However, signals from the Fed are not all pointing in the same direction. Fed Governor Michael Barr said the central bank has been knocked off course by strong AI demand and higher oil prices, suggesting policy may need to be rebalanced. Williams also expects another rate hike later this year if the economy follows his projections, and expects inflation to reach 3.5% by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization now stands at 2.95 trillion dollars, barely changed over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin accounting for 1.67 trillion dollars and a market share of 56.62%. Roughly 13,800 BTC was transferred out of Binance, the largest single-day net outflow since 2023, and Bitcoin is trading below 83,213 dollars. Spot trading volume in altcoins reached nearly four times that of Bitcoin, while Glassnode's Altcoin Cycle Signal index climbed above 81.
