10-Year Bond Yield Surges Past 5.3% as Investors Await Fed Meeting Minutes

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The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged past 5.3% today as investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting, due for release on Wednesday. As of 11:09 p.m. Thailand time, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.332%, while the 30-year Treasury yield was at 5.690%. The Fed's monetary policy committee, the FOMC, voted unanimously 12-0 to raise short-term interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00% at its September 16 meeting, in line with market expectations. That was the first rate hike in more than three years, or since July 2023, and since then the Fed has cut rates six times for a total of 1.75%. Meanwhile, the Dot Plot report showed that 16 of the Fed's 18 officials expect one more rate hike this year. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors assign a 78.4% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.75-4.00% at its October meeting, up from just 29.1% a week ago, and a 21.6% probability to a 0.25% hike to 4.00-4.25%, down from as much as 70.9% previously. The shift came after the U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, below analysts' forecast of 89,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while analysts had expected it to hold steady at 4.1%.

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％Effective Federal Funds Rate
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Fed hiked rates to 3.75-4.00% and 16 of 18 officials expect one more hike this year, keeping the effective funds rate elevated.

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