US-Iran peace deal collapses oil prices The US-Iran peace deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending WTI crude from $113 to about $74. This crushed oil producers like Exxon and Chevron but eased fuel costs for retailers and travel companies.
This was the dominant force driving sector moves in June.
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Fed turns hawkish under new Chair Warsh May CPI hit 4.2%, rate-hike odds jumped to 70% by September, and the dollar hit a 13-month high. This sank gold and bitcoin and pressured rate-sensitive stocks.
Monetary policy shift was a major driver of asset prices.
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AI data-center spending flagged as inflation risk AI data-center spending of $745 billion was identified as a new inflation source, pressuring tech and hyperscaler stocks as investors worried about higher costs and potential rate hikes.
This new risk factor weighed on the tech sector.
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Renewed Iran strikes threaten peace deal Renewed Iran strikes threatened the peace deal and oil stability, adding geopolitical uncertainty. Late weakness in payrolls (57k) sparked rotation into value stocks, sending the Dow to a record 52,900.
Geopolitical risk and labor market data drove late-period rotation.
Q3 2026
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Oil shock, Fed hike, tech rotation define Q3
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Oil shock from Iran truce collapse The US-Iran truce collapsed and Houthi attacks disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent above $100 and reigniting inflation and rate fears. This squeezed consumers and rate-sensitive sectors.
It was the quarter's initial macro shock, driving inflation and rate expectations.
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Fed hikes amid hot inflation Hot PCE, a global bond selloff with 30-year yield at 5.31%, and new US-Canada tariffs revived hike odds. The Fed hiked in September, squeezing consumers and rate-sensitive sectors.
It shows the monetary policy response to inflation, a key driver of stock and sector performance.
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Tech rotation and layoffs AI spending faced scrutiny, tech saw a historic rotation, and layoffs hit a 20-year high. AI stocks slid on regulation, though AI infrastructure deals continued.
It captures the major shift in tech, a key sector, due to regulation and cost concerns.
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Energy producers gain, offsets emerge Energy producers gained as Brent topped $107 and diesel hit $6.51. Offsets included EU diesel releases, strong Eurozone activity, and continued AI infrastructure deals.
It highlights the main positive sector and counterweights to the negative trends.
Latest
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Jobs stall, bond yields spike, oil whipsaws on G7 reserve release
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September jobs shock: only 29,000 added, unemployment 4.2% US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 90,000 expected, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2% and prior months revised down by nearly 60,000. Weak labor demand keeps the Fed on hold in October, easing pressure on banks, homebuilders and tech, but signals slower consumer spending ahead.
This is the clearest new macro force this period, directly shifting Fed expectations and the growth outlook.
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10-year Treasury yield hits 5.31%, biggest quarterly jump since 1994 The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.31%, up 87.1 basis points in the quarter, the largest rise since 1994, while the 30-year broke 5.65%, the highest since 2002. Surging government debt and AI-related borrowing are pushing long-term rates higher, pressuring banks, homebuilders and richly valued tech, though yields retreated slightly after Micron's strong earnings.
This is a new milestone in the bond selloff, directly raising borrowing costs across the economy and affecting stock valuations.
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Oil whipsaws: China halts exports, G7 releases 100M barrels China suspended oil exports and the US sent more troops to the Middle East, pushing Brent above $103, but the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels from reserves, pulling WTI back to $89.96. The whipsaw keeps inflation risk alive, squeezing airlines, truckers and retailers while energy producers like Exxon and TotalEnergies benefit from higher prices.
Oil is the key inflation input and its volatility directly affects both energy stocks and consumer-facing sectors.
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AI investment boom accelerates: Microsoft 38GW, Micron earnings surge, Hong Kong record fundraising Microsoft plans to triple data center capacity to 38 gigawatts by 2032, Micron's Q4 earnings surged 11-fold on AI chip demand, and Hong Kong share sales hit a record $47.5 billion on AI deals. The spending boom lifts chipmakers, power producers and data center suppliers, though it also strains credit and electricity grids.
AI investment is a major growth driver and a source of both demand and financial risk, shaping tech and utility stocks.
LatestMacro & Economy
United States
Macro & Economy▲impact 4
10-Year Bond Yield Surges Past 5.3% as Investors Await Fed Meeting Minutes
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged past 5.3% today as investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting, due for release on Wednesday. As of 11:09 p.m. Thailand time, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.332%, while the 30-year Treasury yield was at 5.690%. The Fed's monetary policy committee, the FOMC, voted unanimously 12-0 to raise short-term interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00% at its September 16 meeting, in line with market expectations. That was the first rate hike in more than three years, or since July 2023, and since then the Fed has cut rates six times for a total of 1.75%. Meanwhile, the Dot Plot report showed that 16 of the Fed's 18 officials expect one more rate hike this year. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors assign a 78.4% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.75-4.00% at its October meeting, up from just 29.1% a week ago, and a 21.6% probability to a 0.25% hike to 4.00-4.25%, down from as much as 70.9% previously. The shift came after the U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, below analysts' forecast of 89,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while analysts had expected it to hold steady at 4.1%.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive 10-year Treasury yield surged past 5.3% as investors await Fed minutes and weigh the Fed's hawkish rate path.
US-30Y.GB · Monetary · Positive 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.690% amid the Fed rate-hike outlook and awaited FOMC minutes.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive Fed hiked rates to 3.75-4.00% and 16 of 18 officials expect one more hike this year, keeping the effective funds rate elevated.
Excise Department Confirms 2% Sin Tax Will Not Be Abolished, Plans to Channel 14 Billion Baht a Year into National Budget
The Excise Department has confirmed that it will not abolish the 2% additional excise tax, or On-top 2%, levied on liquor and tobacco products, following reports that the government would cut the tax to benefit business groups. Mr. Pornchai Theeravej, Director-General of the Excise Department, said the government will restructure the tax by issuing a ministerial regulation under the Excise Tax Act B.E. 2560 (2017) to raise the standard excise rate on liquor and tobacco by an equivalent amount immediately, while proposing a bill to the legislature to end the direct transfer of the 2% additional tax into funds, so that all the money flows into the treasury as state revenue. Mr. Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, has assigned the Excise Department to study the approach, which will not add to the burden on operators because they will still pay tax at the same rate; only the route of the money into the fiscal system will change directly. As a result, the four agencies and funds that previously received direct allocations, namely the Older Persons Fund, the National Sports Development Fund, the Thai Health Promotion Foundation, or ThaiHealth, and the Thai Public Broadcasting Service, or Thai PBS, must enter the annual budget request and approval process under the Budget Procedure Act B.E. 2561 (2018), like other government agencies. Statistics for the four fiscal years 2565–2568 (2022–2025) show that these four agencies and funds received a combined total of 58,031 million baht from the sin tax, or an average of more than 14,000 million baht a year. The Older Persons Fund received the most at 17,517 million baht, the National Sports Development Fund 16,299 million baht, ThaiHealth 16,169 million baht, and Thai PBS 8,046 million baht. The bill was proposed by members of the House of Representatives from the Bhumjaithai Party. It is currently undergoing public consultation in the House of Representatives and must be submitted to the Cabinet for consideration in the next step.
Euro Falls to 1.1161 as France Budget Crisis and Shallow ECB Hikes Weigh
The Euro is underperforming major currencies, with EUR/USD briefly hitting 1.1161, its lowest since May 2025, according to Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad. Haddad flags France's budget crisis spilling into wider Eurozone bond markets, which complicates potential European Central Bank Transmission Protection Instrument activation. The Euro remains pressured by rising fiscal risk and expectations of a shallower ECB hiking cycle.
Brazilian stocks surge as Bolsonaro becomes heavy favorite in presidential run-off
Brazilian assets rallied sharply after first-round election results showed Flávio Bolsonaro advancing to an Oct. 25 run-off against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with a stronger-than-expected showing. Speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi now give Bolsonaro a more than 80% chance of winning the presidency, up from about 60% before Sunday's first round, while on Polymarket his odds jumped to 85% from 63%. Bolsonaro secured more than 47% of the votes and beat Lula's first round total by nearly 2 percentage points, despite pre-election polls that widely expected him to trail the incumbent in that initial tally. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF was up more than 12% on Monday, U.S.-listed shares of Itau Unibanco gained 15%, Banco Bradesco surged 19%, and Brazil's local Bovespa index was up 8%. Investors broadly see Bolsonaro as more favorable to markets, as the candidate is promising greater fiscal discipline, with Brazil's deficit-to-GDP ratio at almost 10% in June.
BBD · Geopolitics · Positive Bradesco surged 19% as Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected first-round showing and rising run-off odds boost Brazilian assets seen as market-friendly.
ITUB · Geopolitics · Positive Itau Unibanco ADRs gained 15% as Bolsonaro's advance to the run-off with stronger-than-expected support lifted Brazilian financial assets.
BIS General Manager Warns Central Bank Crisis Response Growing More Complicated by Rising Debt
Bank for International Settlements General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos said on the 5th that central banks will continue to play a central role in responding to financial crises, but that rising public debt and changing market conditions will make their task more difficult and more controversial. In a speech in Vienna, he noted that public debt in many countries and regions is approaching its highest level since World War II and fiscal deficits remain large, which could make it harder for central banks to distinguish between market dysfunction and investors' legitimate concerns about government finances. Referring to the sharp rise in bond yields globally and the spread between German and French 10-year bond yields reaching 125.90 basis points last week, the highest level since June 2012, he said, "When market dysfunction threatens financial stability or the transmission of monetary policy, central banks need to intervene," while adding, "When debt levels are high and public funding needs are large, even well-designed measures may be interpreted from a fiscal perspective." He also mentioned the growing influence of non-bank financial institutions such as hedge funds, pension funds and asset managers, noting that they have become major holders of government bonds. While they support market liquidity in normal times, leverage and market-based funding can amplify stress during periods of turmoil, he said, citing the dash for cash in the U.S. Treasury market in March 2020 and the UK gilt market crisis in 2022 as evidence. De Cos is seen as one of the leading candidates to succeed European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, whose term ends next year.
Gold Rebounds as Investors Raise Odds to 78.4% for Fed Rate Hold in October After Weak Jobs Data
Gold prices rebounded today after weak employment figures eased investors' concerns about interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. As of 9:37 pm Thailand time, spot gold rose 0.43 dollars, or 0.01%, to 4,140.10 dollars per ounce, while COMEX December gold futures gained 7.00 dollars, or 0.17%, to 4,169.30 dollars per ounce. Investors increased their bets that the Fed will hold rates steady at its October meeting after the US Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, below analysts' forecast of 89,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, against expectations that it would remain steady at 4.1%. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates that investors now assign a 78.4% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.75-4.00% in October, up from just 29.1% a week earlier, and a 21.6% probability to a 0.25% rate hike to 4.00-4.25%, down from as much as 70.9% previously. However, gold's gains were capped by a stronger dollar, while investors await the minutes of the Fed's September monetary policy meeting, due for release on Wednesday.
GOLD · Monetary · Positive Weak September jobs data (29k vs 89k forecast) raised odds of a Fed rate hold to 78.4%, easing rate-hike concerns and lifting gold prices.
Jefferies names 8 tech stock winners from a divided Congress
Jefferies says a divided government may be the best midterm elections outcome for Big Tech players spending massive amounts of money to build out AI infrastructure. In a note on Monday, the Jefferies research team wrote that a split government and prospects for a national AI policy, rather than fragmented state-level rules, should ensure the rapid pace of AI innovation continues, disproportionately benefiting large, scaled players. The firm's biggest tech winners include Amazon, which benefits regardless of which AI model wins through a model agnostic platform approach; Alphabet, which gets more time to catch up in the AI model race with Gemini 4 Pro and beyond; Microsoft, which has the highest trust from enterprises given its pervasive presence in corporate IT shops; Oracle, emerging as the fourth enterprise cloud option with outsized upside if data center permitting and regulatory hurdles ease; CoreWeave, rapidly becoming recognized as a leading alternative to megacap hyperscalers; Snowflake, a top 2 vendor for AI data plumbing; Datadog, as observability becomes paramount; and Meta, on renewed consumer and small business momentum with Muse and Meta Business Agents. The analysts noted the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 postwar midterms, and with Trump's approval near 39% and independents at 24%, they expect a GOP setback. The 2026 midterm elections are coming on Nov. 3, when voters will choose all 435 members of the House and 35 senators. Truist chief strategist Keith Lerner pointed out that every midterm election year since 1946 has been followed by positive one-year stock returns, with the biggest gain a 34% return after the 1954 elections and an average one-year gain of 14.4%.
Cloud & Digital Infrastructure › Mega-cap Hyperscalers ▲Regulation
Artificial Intelligence › AI Data Center & Build-out ▲Regulation
AMZN · Regulation · Positive Jefferies names Amazon a top AI winner as a divided Congress and national AI policy (rather than fragmented state rules) should keep AI innovation rapid, benefiting its model-agnostic platform.
CRWV · Regulation · Positive Jefferies lists CoreWeave among biggest tech winners, with a split government and national AI policy supporting continued AI buildout where it is a leading hyperscaler alternative.
DDOG · Regulation · Positive Jefferies names Datadog a top winner, as divided-government AI policy keeps innovation pace high and observability demand paramount.
GOOG · Regulation · Positive Jefferies cites Alphabet as a winner, with a divided Congress and national AI policy giving it more time to catch up in the AI model race with Gemini 4 Pro.
META · Regulation · Positive Jefferies includes Meta among biggest tech winners, citing renewed consumer and small business momentum with Muse and Meta Business Agents under a favorable divided-government AI policy backdrop.
MSFT · Regulation · Positive Jefferies names Microsoft a top AI winner as a divided Congress favors a national AI policy over fragmented state rules, benefiting its trusted enterprise AI position.
Costco Cuts Kirkland Signature Prices, Backed by $184 Million in Tariff Refunds
Costco Wholesale Corporation lowered prices across several everyday Kirkland Signature items in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, reinforcing its private label as a member-value lever. Management said Kirkland Signature typically offers savings of at least 15%-20% versus national-brand equivalents while maintaining equal or better quality. KS Walnuts were reduced to $9.99 from $13.79, Colombian Whole Bean Coffee to $19.99 from $21.99, Dry Facial Towels to $18.99 from $19.99 and Coarse Black Pepper to $5.99 from $6.99. The value push was supported by tariff refunds: Costco received $184 million in the quarter, including $174 million in refunds and $10 million in interest, and management said it intends to reinvest the majority of additional tariff-refund dollars to enhance member value. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco's current fiscal-year sales and earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 8.3% and 11.8%, respectively, and the estimate for current fiscal-year earnings has increased by 36 cents to $22.87 per share over the past 30 days.
Earnings Season Kicks Off With Constellation Brands, PepsiCo, Delta in Focus
Third quarter earnings season begins this week with results due from Constellation Brands, Levi's, PepsiCo and Delta, and Wall Street analysts are heading in with record optimism. According to new data from FactSet, 60% of S&P 500 stocks now carry a buy rating from Wall Street analysts, the highest level on record, leaving next to no margin for error if results or guidance come up short. The optimism is rooted in the earnings outlook: the S&P 500 is expected to report year-over-year earnings growth of 29.5% for the recently completed third quarter, while analysts are calling for growth of 27.6% in the fourth quarter and 32.4% for 2026. Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi said he is most concerned about Constellation Brands and PepsiCo given pressured consumer wallets, and flagged Delta's outlook as at risk from soaring fuel prices even though sales trends likely stayed strong.
US Non-Manufacturing PMI Falls to 54.9 in September as Price Pressures Intensify
The Institute for Supply Management reported on the 5th that its non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index for September came in at 54.9, down from 55.4 in August. Economists had expected a nearly flat reading of 55.2. Strong domestic demand is straining supply chains, and the index of prices companies pay for inputs rose to 74.0 from 72.6 in August, which, together with a similar increase in the manufacturing index, points to higher inflation ahead and supports economists' expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. The new orders index for the services sector fell to 59.8 from 60.9 in August, while the supplier deliveries index rose to 53.2 from 51.3, indicating delivery delays for a 22nd consecutive month. The employment index rose to 50.1 from 47.8, supporting the view that the labor market is stable.
IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings 2026 to be held in Bangkok, October 12-18, opening the stage for the World Economic Outlook
The Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, and the World Bank Group will hold their 2026 Annual Meetings, the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings 2026, in Bangkok, Thailand, from October 12 to 18. The IMF will use Thailand as the stage to release the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook report, which will set out global economic forecasts for 2026 and 2027. The meeting is expected to discuss the global economy, inflation, energy prices, public debt, financial stability, war and geopolitics, as well as the impact of artificial intelligence, or AI, on the global economy. The IMF officially announced in 2023 that Bangkok had been chosen to host this meeting, a decision made by a vote of the IMF-World Bank Boards of Governors. Thailand is only the third country outside the United States to host the meetings more than once, with its most recent hosting in 1991. This meeting is expected to draw more than 15,000 participants from 191 countries, including central bank governors, finance ministers, development ministers, private sector executives, civil society representatives, and academics.
Oil in Focus as Hormuz Shipping Stalls, WTO Crude at $90
Oil prices remain in focus as the war in Iran has widened into a proxy fight between the Saudi-backed Yemen government and the Iran-backed Houthis, with barely any oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, though WTO spot oil prices sit at $90 per barrel and Brent crude at $102 per barrel. Trading opens a breather week between last week's jobs and PCE inflation reports and next week's unofficial start of Q3 earnings season, with pre-market futures turning lower, spot oil relatively muted at sustained higher levels, and bond yields flattish but elevated. September S&P Services PMI and ISM Services are due after the opening bell, with ISM expected to dip slightly to 55 from 55.4, both indexes still well above the 50 growth line. This week also brings August Consumer Credit on Wednesday ahead of the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Survey for October on Friday, and Tuesday's U.S. Trade Balance ahead of August Monthly Wholesale Trade numbers on Thursday. PepsiCo reports Thursday morning with earnings growth of 0.00% year over year and revenue growth of +3.94%, while Delta Air Lines reports Friday with projected earnings growth of +14.65% and revenue growth of +6.15%; both stocks currently sit at sell-levels on the Zacks Rank.
DAL · Capital · Neutral Mentioned only as reporting Friday with projected earnings growth of +14.65% and revenue growth of +6.15%, sitting at sell-levels on the Zacks Rank; no new development.
PEP · Capital · Neutral Mentioned only as reporting Thursday with 0.00% earnings growth and +3.94% revenue growth, sitting at sell-levels on the Zacks Rank; no new development.
U.S. PMI Composite Holds at 58.4 in Final September Reading
The U.S. PMI Composite was unrevised at 58.4 in its final reading for September, up from 56.0 in August, according to data released by S&P Global on Monday. Within the composite, the U.S. Services PMI came in at 58.8 for September, slightly above its initial estimate of 58.7 and well ahead of the 56.5 recorded in August. The figures confirm the earlier flash estimate for the month. This is a developing story.
Global oil prices directionless as G7 agrees to release up to 100 million barrels from reserves
Global crude oil prices moved without direction. At about 7:45 p.m. Thailand time, West Texas crude for November delivery fell 0.81 dollars, or 0.89%, to 90.30 dollars per barrel, while Brent crude for December delivery rose 0.38 dollars, or 0.37%, to 102.63 dollars per barrel. The Group of Seven leading industrial nations, the G7, reached an agreement to release diesel and crude oil onto the market to control surging fuel prices, stating in a declaration that it would release up to 100 million barrels from reserves within four months and would release large volumes of diesel in the first 20 days. The agreement came after the Trump administration pressured European allies, especially Germany and France, which hold a large share of the European Union's diesel reserves. Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthi group said it fired long-range missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Riyadh and Qures in Saudi Arabia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Reuters in an interview that he would double attacks on Russian oil refineries, and OPEC+ postponed its review of oil production quotas for members in 2027 because the war with Iran has affected plans to expand production capacity in the Middle East.
BBH: Brazilian Real Set to Open Higher After Bolsonaro's Stronger-Than-Expected First-Round Result
Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad says the Brazilian Real and local assets are poised to open higher after Flávio Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected first-round election result. The assessment from the BBH strategist points to an immediate market reaction at the open, with Brazilian local assets positioned to benefit from the surprise showing at the polls. No specific price levels or percentage moves were cited in the call.
USDBRL.FOREX · Geopolitics · Negative Flávio Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected first-round election result is seen as boosting Brazilian local assets, strengthening the Real.
Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. · · Neutral BBH strategist is cited for the BRL call, but the news is about the Brazilian election, not a development for the firm itself.
Q3 Earnings Season Opens as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 24-Year High
U.S. stocks closed higher Friday after a surprisingly weak September jobs report raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its October meeting, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 250 points, or 0.5%, to close at 51,176.46, the S&P 500 adding 0.7%, or 56.27 points, to 7,722.72, and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 1.2%, or 319.27 points, to 27,190.86 after hitting a record earlier in the session. For the week, the Dow fell about 1.3% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. The rally faces a jump in bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5.34% on Thursday, its highest level in 24 years, driven by expectations for strong growth, rising energy costs pushing up inflation, and heavier corporate debt issuance to fund AI buildouts. Earnings season kicks off this week with PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines among the first large companies to report, before major banks open the broader season the following week, and minutes from last month's Fed meeting are due Wednesday. Investors are also awaiting November 3 midterm elections, which will decide control of Congress.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, a 24-year high, driven by strong growth expectations, rising energy costs and heavy corporate debt issuance.
DAL · · Neutral Named as one of the first large companies to report earnings this week; no substantive development given.
PEP · · Neutral Named as one of the first large companies to report earnings this week; no substantive development given.
Fiserv Small Business Index Hits 146 as September Sales Rise 2.2%
Fiserv's Small Business Index rose to 146 in September 2026, with small business sales up 2.2% year over year and 0.7% month over month, the strongest annual gain since June, as back-to-school demand lifted retail spending. Average tickets climbed 4.2% year over year while total foot traffic fell for the eleventh straight month, down 2.0% year over year and 0.2% month over month. Total Retail sales rose 3.0% year over year and 1.3% month over month, matching June's high, with transactions up 2.4% and average tickets up 0.5%; Sporting Goods, Hobby and Miscellaneous Retailers gained 5.5% on 6.6% transaction growth, led by a 10.4% increase among Sporting Goods Retailers, and clothing foot traffic rose 6.1% even as average tickets fell 4.7%. Food Services and Drinking Places sales fell 1.0% year over year and 0.2% month over month as transactions declined 3.9%, while Gas Station sales surged 21.1% year over year and 6.0% month over month on a 20.9% rise in average tickets, though inflation-adjusted sales fell 5.0%. Prasanna Dhore, Chief Data Officer at Fiserv, said the results reflect the resilience of consumers and small businesses but also the trade-offs households are making as they manage higher costs.
FISV · Demand · Positive Fiserv's Small Business Index rose to 146 with small business sales up 2.2% YoY, its strongest annual gain since June, driven by back-to-school retail demand.
The US unemployment rate is approaching a historic record for consecutive months below 5%, a streak not seen since the mid-1960s, according to Truist chief strategist Keith Lerner. The milestone comes as markets weigh a surprisingly weak September jobs report, in which employers added just 29,000 jobs, far below economists' expectations for roughly 90,000 and below the prior 12-month average monthly gain of 45,000. July's employment was revised from a 21,000 gain to a 10,000 decline, and August's employment was cut from 162,000 to 133,000, putting the two-month revision at 60,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, while the labor-force participation rate held at 61.8%, suggesting the rise in unemployment was modest rather than a sign of a sudden labor-market collapse. Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income, said recent data reinforced a very low hire, but also very low fire condition, with the labor market as a whole remaining decent despite selective weakening in some areas.
Zacks Preview: S&P 500 Q3 Earnings Seen Up 24.6%, 8th Straight Double-Digit Quarter
Zacks Investment Research released its weekly earnings preview, projecting S&P 500 earnings will rise 24.6% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the index's eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Fifteen of the 16 Zacks sectors are on track for positive earnings growth, with six expected to post double-digit gains: Aerospace up 159.7%, Energy up 114.3%, Tech up 43.3%, Basic Materials up 29.5%, Transportation up 14.4% and Industrial Products up 13.2%, while the Conglomerates sector is the sole decliner at minus 31.3%. Within Tech, Nvidia's Q3 earnings are expected to climb 90% year over year on 91.2% higher revenues, Alphabet's are seen up 2.8%, and Micron's most recent release showed a 1075.7% earnings jump; excluding Nvidia, Micron and Alphabet, Tech sector earnings growth falls to 20.5%, and excluding the Energy sector, S&P 500 growth drops to 20.5% from 24.6%. Sixteen S&P 500 members have already reported results for their fiscal quarters ending in August, with total earnings up 188.3% on 31.7% higher revenues and 81.3% beating EPS estimates, though excluding Micron that growth falls to 11.7%. The big banks begin reporting October 13, and Constellation Brands, Delta Air Lines and Pepsi are due this week.
Phiphat Prepares for IMF-World Bank Meetings, Lays Out Plan to Clear Backlog and Sign 67-Billion-Baht AOTGA Deal
Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn said that Thai Airways International's inbound and outbound flights have been operating at 100% of normal capacity since Saturday, October 3, 2026, with no flight reductions. Cargo remaining at warehouses is down to just 3-4%, and roughly 400 pieces of baggage remain unclaimed, with staff contacting their owners. Airports of Thailand, or AOT, has given Thai Airways its full cooperation and assistance. For the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings 2026, which Thailand will host from October 12-18, 2026, with more than 15,000 participants from 191 countries, the Prime Minister has instructed the Transport Ministry to prepare from the airports onward, especially to ensure baggage handling does not create another backlog. AOT and Thai Airways have already coordinated their plans, and the war room continues to work together at all times. On transport in Bangkok, the Cabinet agreed that government agencies in the Bangkok area will work off-site on October 12, 14 and 15, 2026, while Friday, October 16, 2026, has been declared a special public holiday for government agencies in Bangkok only, to ease traffic problems. Meanwhile, the Transport Ministry, the Department of Highways, the Department of Rural Roads and the Expressway Authority of Thailand will survey cars parked on roads or bridges in flooded areas to coordinate with their owners to move them, and will prepare equipment and high-clearance vehicles together with the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, the Interior Ministry, and will seek cooperation from the armed forces. Ms. Pavina Jariyathitipong, Chief Executive Officer of AOT, said that on October 8, 2026, AOT will sign a contract with Airport Ground Services Thailand, or AOTGA, as the third operator of cargo warehouses, apron and ground equipment services, ground passenger services and other related businesses at Suvarnabhumi Airport, with a total value of more than 67 billion baht. Services are expected to begin in early 2027, while the cargo warehouse will be built as quickly as possible, taking about 18 months. Having a third operator follows a Cabinet resolution requiring one once passenger numbers exceed 45 million a year, and Suvarnabhumi currently handles more than 60 million passengers a year. AOTGA's contract also sets service performance measured through key performance indicators, along with penalties if the targets are not met, up to and including termination of the contract. These penalty conditions will also be added to the new tender for the second operator. Only Thai Airways' contract remains, with KPIs but no penalties. As for the 25-year contract term, Ms. Pavina said these projects require high investment and appropriate service fee controls, so it takes time to break even, and the appropriate period was calculated at 25 years. AOT is proceeding under the Public-Private Partnership Act of 2019. Having a third operator will ease the burden and give airlines more choices, since previously there were only two, leaving Thai Airways with no alternatives and insufficient capacity, which was one cause of flight delays.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive AOT will sign a 67-billion-baht contract with AOTGA and is coordinating with Thai Airways to handle IMF-World Bank meeting traffic and baggage backlog.
THAI.BK · Demand · Positive Thai Airways flights operating at 100% normal capacity with cargo backlog down to 3-4%, and it is coordinating with AOT for the IMF-World Bank meetings.
Thai Airports Ground Services · Demand · Positive AOTGA is set to sign a 67-billion-baht contract with AOT as the third airport ground services provider.
Trump reiterates promise of $5,000 dividend payments if Republicans win midterms
President Donald Trump confirmed in a post on Truth Social on October 4 that every American adult will receive $5,000, or about 168,000 baht, dubbed the Trump dividend, if voters hand Republicans a win in the November 3 midterm elections and give the party majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Trump said he looked forward to signing those checks, and previously, on September 14, he had posted a similar promise, citing the success of pushing through the Great Big Beautiful Bill and $1,776 payments to troops. Reuters reported that the U.S. Census Bureau estimates there are about 240 million adult citizens, which means the government would need to spend about $1.2 trillion, or roughly 39.64 trillion baht. Vice President JD Vance said the government could use tariff revenue to pay for it, but the Congressional Budget Office estimates the government has already collected $167 billion in tariff revenue in the current fiscal year, which ends September 30, and that is still not enough to cover the program's cost, while this year's budget deficit stands at $2.1 trillion. The program requires congressional approval, and even though Republicans control both chambers, their majority is slim, and Democrats could block it in the Senate, where at least 60 votes are needed. In the past, Congress approved direct payments to the public three times during COVID-19, totaling $814 billion, and Trump promised a $2,000 dividend in November 2025 but did not follow through. Meanwhile, the $1,776 warrior dividend for about 1.45 million service members in December 2025 succeeded using funds Congress had already approved.
XSpring AM Raises Thai Equity Weighting to Neutral, Eyes SET Hitting 1,700 Points in 2027
XSpring Asset Management has upgraded its investment weighting for the Thai stock market from Underweight to Neutral. Chief Executive Officer Yossakorn Follett said the supporting factors are valuations that are neither cheap nor expensive, a dividend yield of 3 to 3.5 percent per year, a stable government, and foreign investment flows that have begun returning since the start of the year, though not yet matching the outflows seen over the previous three years. He estimates that the SET Index has limited upside of around 1,650 points by the end of this year, excluding the impact of the flood situation, and could reach 1,700 points in 2027 if the Stock Exchange of Thailand succeeds in attracting large companies or quality family businesses to list, thereby increasing the market capitalization of the Thai stock market. Sectors of interest include consumer goods and semiconductors, while commercial banks require stock-by-stock selection and a wait to assess the impact of the floods on non-performing loans. On the mutual fund business under XSpring AM's management, net asset value stands at approximately 3.4 to 4.5 billion baht, with a target to grow to 5 to 6 billion baht by the end of this year, while private funds stand at 6.8 to 7 billion baht and are expected to exceed 10 billion baht by year-end, driven by large clients, with three to four more currently under negotiation. As a result, total assets under management this year are expected to close at 16 billion baht, growing about 60 percent from 10 billion baht last year. XSpring AM is currently offering an initial public offering of the XSpring Open Australian Equity Fund, the first Australian equity fund in Thailand, and in the fourth quarter plans to launch a diversified commodity fund and a small-cap US value equity fund.
XSpring Asset Management Company Limited · Capital · Positive XSpring AM upgraded Thai equity weighting to Neutral and targets AUM growth to 16 billion baht, up ~60% from last year.
UK Five-Year Mortgage Rates Hit 6pc for First Time in Three Years
Average five-year fixed mortgage rates in the UK have reached 6pc for the first time in three years, as fears of rising interest rates prompted lenders to raise prices. Major lenders including Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, Nationwide, NatWest, Santander and TSB increased their rates at least three times in September, with international instability and the ongoing Iran conflict pushing up prices. According to financial analysts Moneyfacts, the average five-year mortgage rose to 6pc on Monday, its highest since September 2023, while the average two-year fix stood at 5.98pc. Just nine five-year mortgage deals below 5pc remained on the market as of Monday morning, down from more than 1,500 at the start of the month, meaning 99pc of sub-5pc deals had disappeared. Swap rates, used by banks to price mortgages, jumped dramatically between Sept 28 and the beginning of October, rising to close to the Bank Rate of 3.75pc. On a £250,000 five-year fixed-rate mortgage, the difference between a 6pc rate and the 4.94pc average rate in February, before the Iranian conflict began, would add more than £9,400 over the five years. Borrowers can still secure variable rates at less than 5pc, with 389 such mortgages available, down from 411 at the beginning of September. The Bank of England chose not to increase the central rate from 3.75pc at its last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, but financial markets strongly predict at least one rate increase by the end of the year, potentially at the next meeting, days after John Healey's first Budget as Chancellor on Oct 28.
Silver Jumps 2.3% to Near $61.80 as Hawkish Fed Bets Recede
Silver price rose 2.3% to near $61.80 during Monday's European session as traders scaled back hawkish Federal Reserve expectations following soft September US labor data. The economy created just 29K jobs in September, below the 90K estimate and a prior reading revised down to 133K from 162K, while the Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.2% against expectations it would hold at 4.1%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a Fed rate hike at this month's policy meeting have fallen to 19.4% from 70.9% a week ago. Deutsche Bank analysts, however, see the broader labor market as broadly stable and expect two further 25 basis point Fed hikes over the next couple of quarters. The US Dollar Index rose 0.3% to near 102.20 and touched a fresh annual high near 102.53, supported by safe-haven demand tied to heightened French fiscal risks. On the technical side, XAG/USD trades at $61.69 below its 20-day exponential moving average at $63.24, with the Relative Strength Index at 43.89, while $30 is the immediate support zone and the August 3 low sits at $56.57.
SILVER · Monetary · Positive Silver jumped 2.3% as traders scaled back hawkish Fed bets after weak September US labor data cut rate-hike odds to 19.4%.
DBK.XETRA · Monetary · Neutral Deutsche Bank analysts expect two more 25bp Fed hikes, a view at odds with the article's dovish repricing after soft US jobs data.
European UnionUnited StatesFranceSpainIranSaudi Arabia
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Euro Hits 17-Month Low as French Debt Fears Sink Paris Stocks
The euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar in 17 months and the Paris stock market shed one percent Monday on growing concerns about France's high debt levels after an underwhelming government budget plan unveiled last week. The CAC 40 was also pushed lower by a 10 percent drop in the share price of Schneider Electric after the French software group said it would buy US peer PTC for $22.6 billion in cash. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Monday called a snap election for November 29, after parliament rejected housing relief measures proposed by his minority government, with Spain's stock market edging up about 0.5 percent around midday. The oil market began the week calmer after G7 countries, in coordination with the International Energy Agency, agreed Friday to immediately release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil to ease global energy supply concerns caused by the US-Iran war, and Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser described oil stockpiles as "scarily thin." Asian stock markets closed higher, with regional stocks catching up with global gains Friday after a big miss on US jobs creation gave the Federal Reserve breathing room to hold off an interest rate increase this month.
EURUSD.FOREX · Monetary · Negative Euro hit a 17-month low vs the dollar on French debt/budget concerns, weakening the euro.
SU.PA · Capital · Negative Schneider Electric shares fell 10% after announcing a $22.6 billion all-cash acquisition of PTC.
PTC · Capital · Positive Schneider Electric agreed to buy PTC for $22.6 billion in cash, a takeover premium for the target.
Saudi Aramco · Supply · Negative G7/IEA agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude, easing supply and pressuring oil; Aramco CEO called stockpiles scarily thin.
ConocoPhillips Chairman Expects Oil Price Floor to Rise to Around $70
Ryan Lance, chairman of U.S. oil and gas major ConocoPhillips, said on the 5th that he expects the floor for crude oil prices to rise to around $70 a barrel, and projected a mid-cycle price of $65 to $70 for U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate. Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum held in London, the chairman said this year's Middle East conflict dealt a major blow to the global oil system but did not cause it to collapse. He said that if crude prices hold near current levels, U.S. oil production could exceed 14 million to 14.5 million barrels per day. He said it could take until 2028 or 2029 for global oil demand to recover from the current crisis, but that after that nothing would stop demand growth. "The real strategic challenge for a company like ours is where to secure traditional production resources to meet that growing demand," the chairman said, adding that ConocoPhillips is currently focusing more on upstream investment than midstream investment in its oil business.
Japan, Australia finance ministers sign memorandum to create ministerial economic security dialogue
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama met with Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers at the Ministry of Finance on the 5th and signed a memorandum establishing a framework for a "Finance Ministers' Dialogue" aimed at strengthening cooperation on economic security and expanding investment between the two countries. The move elevates the Japan-Australia framework, previously limited to the vice-ministerial level, to the ministerial level, with the two sides deepening coordination in areas centering on energy security, including liquefied natural gas, and investment in critical minerals. At the signing ceremony, Katayama stressed that the two countries will "further strengthen our cooperation and contribute to stable economic growth in the Indo-Pacific region and, by extension, the world as a whole," while Chalmers said "the importance of closer Japan-Australia cooperation has never been greater." Under the Finance Ministers' Dialogue, the two sides will also strengthen information sharing in the screening of domestic investment by foreign capital and consider investment support using public financial institutions such as the Japan Bank for International Cooperation. They will also coordinate on investment in Pacific island countries and support for anti-money-laundering measures.
Keidanren Chairman Calls for Early Clarification of Funding for Consumption Tax Cut
Keidanren Chairman Yoshinobu Tsutsui said at a press conference on the 5th that regarding the consumption tax cut on food items sought by the Takaichi administration, "I would like the funding source to be clarified as soon as possible," calling for specific funding sources to be presented promptly. Regarding the recent rise in long-term interest rates, he said, "It is reasonable for them to rise in line with the growth strategy," while also noting, "Concerns about fiscal policy are not zero" as a factor behind the rise. He further stated, "During the budget compilation period through the end of the year, market movements are sensitive," expressing caution about a sharp rise in interest rates driven by fiscal concerns and other factors.
Anutin Says Third-Quarter Economy Is Improving, Urges Preparations for IMF–World Bank 2026 Hosting
Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said several indicators of Thailand's economy are showing improvement, including rising export values and better import figures. The three major credit rating agencies, Moody's, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, continue to rank Thailand among countries with stability and a positive outlook. The economy in the third quarter just past is trending better, but the National Economic and Social Development Council still needs to finalize all indicators within two to three weeks. Agricultural exports have increased, and gross domestic product is expected to rise. Next week, Thailand will host the annual meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in 2026, or IMF–World Bank 2026, which will bring together financial leaders from 191 countries, including national leaders, finance ministers, central bank governors and various investment institutions. The prime minister believes this meeting will benefit Thailand's economy and the economic outlook for the final quarter of 2026. As for additional stimulus measures in the final quarter to keep GDP on target, the government will base them on what the situation requires and is ready to act. In addition, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas will bring Sumrit Saniang, acting Chief Executive Officer of Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, to meet the prime minister in the afternoon to introduce himself and discuss past problems, as the company is recovering and its operating results are improving. The government will listen to proposals and offer advice, but cannot directly order Thai Airways because it is independent. If it wants to give policy direction, it will act through the Finance Ministry as the largest shareholder. Later, at 2:30 p.m., Anutin chaired the third meeting this year of the national committee preparing to host the 2026 annual meetings of the Boards of Governors of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund at Phakdi Bodin Building, Government House. He instructed Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited, or AOT, and airlines to prepare at full capacity to prevent a repeat of last week's problems with slow check-in systems, unclaimed baggage or flight cancellations. He also ordered preparations for a Fast Track channel for meeting participants and told relevant agencies to integrate their work on visas, immigration, security systems, public health and public relations to build confidence in Thailand.
PM orders final push as Thailand prepares to host IMF–World Bank meetings in 2026
Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul chaired the third meeting this year of the national committee preparing for the 2026 Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, to review readiness in the final stretch before the meetings begin in one week. Government spokesman Ekapop Pienpiset disclosed the details. The Prime Minister instructed all agencies to work at full capacity and with care in every detail, including substance, protocol, security, public health, facilitation, public relations and overall management, and to expedite urgent issues, particularly visas for international participants, assigning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to jointly consider facilitation measures before the meetings begin. The meeting acknowledged key schedule items: the opening of the Thailand Pavilion on 12 October 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center; a gala dinner hosted by the Prime Minister on 14 October 2026 at Government House; a Thai identity performance on 15 October 2026; and the plenary session of the World Bank and IMF Boards of Governors on 16 October 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center. Thailand will host high-level activities under the theme Thailand's New Horizons: Empowering People, Building Resilience, covering four pillars: digital and artificial intelligence transformation; opportunities for middle-sized countries in a multipolar world; building new architecture to support climate change adaptation; and promoting the economy to support an aging society, along with the forums Building Resilience in a Fragmented World and Financing a Resilient Green Economy. The Queen Sirikit National Convention Center has prepared meeting rooms and logistics linking airports, the convention center, the gala venue and accommodation hotels to World Bank and IMF standards.
Thailand Ranks in Global Top 5 for Investment Relocation, Government Unveils "STI" Strategy to Attract Capital
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Eknit Nitithanprapas revealed that studies by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, place Thailand among the top five countries, or Top 5 Global Trends, capturing the attention of foreign investors and riding the wave of the new era of investment relocation. Foreign investors view Thailand as a safe haven for setting up production bases amid global conflict and polarization, and its political neutrality allows its trade economy to engage with countries around the world without restrictions. This is reflected in the number of investment promotion applications to the BOI this year, which continued to expand from last year to 1.47 trillion baht, or growth of 40%. The government aims to drive many target industries to relocate production to Thailand, such as artificial intelligence, or AI, optical data transmission equipment, including the world's number one and number two manufacturers, printed circuit boards, or PCB, chips, and future mobility, such as electric vehicles, or EVs, with eight factories already establishing production bases in Thailand. Eknit said the government's key task is not to let this opportunity pass but to convert investment applications into actual investment, while issuing rules to ensure benefits flow to Thai people and Thai businesses through mandatory technology transfer and workforce skills development. At the same time, the government is driving the country through the "STI" strategy, consisting of Stabilize Today, Transition Now, and Invest for Tomorrow. The ratio of public debt to gross domestic product, or GDP, remains within the 60–70% range, which is still strong compared with developed countries such as the United States at 100% and Japan at 200%.
ING Sees Brazilian Real Rallying After Bolsonaro's Strong First-Round Showing
ING analyst Chris Turner says Brazilian assets are set to rally after Sunday's presidential vote, in which Flavio Bolsonaro took 47% of the popular vote against President Lula's 45%. The two will meet in a run-off on 25 October, and Turner expects markets to assume the remaining 8% of the vote leans toward the Bolsonaro camp, with investors having anticipated a much tighter first round. He argues that Bolsonaro's platform of fiscal austerity and deregulation should lift both the currency and the bond market, though he notes the stronger dollar and surging US Treasury yields make the external backdrop tougher for emerging market currencies than earlier this year. Turner projects USD/BRL could open near 5.10, but says a move back to the year's lows at 4.90 looks too aggressive right now.
USDBRL.FOREX · Monetary · Negative Bolsonaro's strong first-round showing and fiscal-austerity platform are expected to lift the Brazilian real, with USD/BRL seen near 5.10.
Aging Owners to Release 13.9 Million Homes Over Next Decade, Realtor.com Finds
Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation are expected to release 13.9 million homes over the next decade, a 74% jump from what those two generations gave back in the prior ten years, according to new research from Realtor.com. The handoff, often called the silver tsunami, would cut the 36.7 million homes these cohorts own today to 22.8 million by 2036, an average of about 1.39 million a year, with the pace rising from roughly 1.27 million homes in 2027 to 1.52 million in 2036. Boomers are expected to overtake the Silent Generation as the biggest source of freed-up homes around 2029, and the true peak likely comes after the forecast ends in 2036. The relief is heavily skewed toward larger properties: family homes make up 9.9 million of the total, or 71.2%, and large homes 3.6 million, while only 0.38 million starter homes are expected to be relinquished, just 3.2% of recent listings. Realtor.com Senior Economist Jiayi Xu said the handoff is a welcome relief but is not big enough to solve the housing shortage alone, and the research notes the 13.9 million figure is not directly comparable to the nation's 4 million-home gap because the homes arrive gradually and the entry-level segment gets the least relief.
Realtor.com · Demand · Positive Realtor.com's own research on the silver tsunami of 13.9 million homes released over the next decade spotlights its housing-market data and draws attention to its listings platform.
US Adds Just 29,000 Jobs in September as Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Since 2014
The US economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 90,000 expected, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rose an anemic 0.1% from August. The weak print pulled odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October FOMC meeting back to roughly 20%, per CME data, with economists at BNP Paribas and JPMorgan saying it would now take a very strong CPI reading on Oct. 14 to make the October meeting live. Consumer confidence plunged in September to 81.9 from 88.6 the prior month, its lowest reading since 2014, and economists expect Friday's University of Michigan sentiment report to fall further to 48 from 48.1, below the roughly 55 to 60 seen during the financial crisis. In energy, Persian Gulf crude exports have recovered to roughly 98% of pre-war levels, but refined product exports remain at about 3 million barrels per day, or 58% of pre-war levels, per JPMorgan Chase, pushing US diesel prices to an all-time high of $6.41 per gallon. On Friday, G7 leaders announced they would release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel onto the open market over four months, led by a substantial diesel release within 20 days, after pressure from the Trump White House. Earnings this week include Constellation Brands on Tuesday, Applied Digital on Wednesday, PepsiCo on Thursday, and Delta Air Lines on Friday.
World News Roundup: Iran Weighs U.S. Response to Proposal, Saudi Arabia Cuts Asia Oil Prices, Japan Moves to Regulate Big Data
Iran is reviewing U.S. comments on its proposal to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi said on Sunday, October 4. Saudi Arabia, the Middle East's largest crude oil exporter, announced it will cut prices for November-loading crude for Asian customers, an unexpected move, while raising prices for customers in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara confirmed on October 5 that Japan has no plans to release additional crude oil from its national reserves, as it has already released supply into the market, even though the G7 countries reached an agreement on Friday, October 2, to release a total of 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves. In Japan itself, authorities plan to amend economic security legislation to require companies and organizations holding big data to notify the government before transferring or disclosing sensitive personal information to third parties. Daiwa Securities Group disclosed on October 5 that data on approximately 110,000 customers of its securities brokerage subsidiary, including non-personal information, may have leaked after a server managed by a subcontractor was accessed without authorization. Also on the same day, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivered a policy speech to parliament, pledging to cut the consumption tax on food products without issuing new bonds in order to reassure the markets. In addition, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation announced the arrest of a California woman at Los Angeles International Airport on Sunday, October 4, charging her with acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign government after she was found surveilling and following the son of Taiwan's president on the orders of Chinese government officials. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the creation of the Super Intelligence Force, a new federal task force to coordinate government artificial intelligence operations. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced early elections on November 29, acknowledging his government's mistakes after facing heavy pressure from public protests over the housing crisis across the country, and after parliament rejected the emergency decree aimed at addressing the crisis.
BRENT · Supply · Negative Saudi Arabia's unexpected price cut for Asian crude customers signals weak demand/ample supply, weighing on Brent crude.
WTI · Supply · Negative Saudi Arabia unexpectedly cut November-loading crude prices for Asian customers, signaling ample supply and pressuring WTI crude prices.
HEATOIL · Supply · Neutral G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, a supply signal for refined products like heating oil, but the article does not specifically discuss heating oil.
FTI warns factories to brace for new wave of rain and high tides from October 5-13
The Federation of Thai Industries, or FTI, has issued a warning urging industrial operators to closely prepare for water situations, after the Meteorological Department assessed that October 5-7 will bring volatile weather and October 8-11 will bring another round of rain, with the rain band moving down into the South. Extra vigilance is required in the western, central, Bangkok, eastern and southern regions. For the Chao Phraya and Pa Sak river basins, although northern water flows at Nakhon Sawan are trending downward, water is still joining from the Sakae Krang River, so the Chao Phraya Dam continues to release water at 2,500 cubic metres per second, while the Pa Sak Cholasit Dam has increased its release to 500 cubic metres per second, pushing water levels below the Rama VI Dam up by 1 to 1.2 metres. The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation has also warned of high tides from October 5-10. In the East, water masses from Nakhon Nayok and Prachin Buri have begun to recede and are gradually flowing through Chachoengsao, while the Mae Klong river basin is starting to improve after discharges below the dam were cut to 1,023 cubic metres per second. In the South, heavy and continuous rain must be watched from October 10-13, especially in Chumphon, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Songkhla, Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat, which face the risk of flash floods reaching urban areas. The FTI therefore stressed that factories in these areas must urgently inspect drainage systems and water pumps and prepare emergency response plans for immediate use, and advised the industrial sector to set clear Trigger-Action crisis points covering employee safety, protection of machinery, safe shutdown of operations, management of chemicals, wastewater and industrial waste, as well as transport backups, in order to minimise the impact on business.
Spain calls snap election for Nov 29 after parliament rejects housing decree
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has announced a snap election for Nov 29 after facing intense pressure from public protests over a housing crisis across the country and after parliament rejected his decree aimed at tackling the crisis. The announcement came less than 72 hours after Sánchez's government failed to win parliamentary approval for two housing-related decrees intended to ease public pressure over Spain's housing crisis. Speaking at a televised press conference from the Moncloa Palace in Madrid, Sánchez said it was time for Spaniards to decide what kind of future they wanted for themselves and their country, and acknowledged that his government had made mistakes and had not yet achieved everything it set out to do. Hundreds of people have camped out for days in Puerta del Sol square in central Madrid to protest the housing crisis that is hitting the country hard, and the demonstrations have spread to cities across Spain over the past week.
IMF says innovation and consumption are driving China's new economy
Krishna Srinivasan, director of the Asia and Pacific Department at the International Monetary Fund, said in an interview with Xinhua Finance that China's shift toward a consumption-driven growth model supported by innovation could reinforce its medium-term growth trend and benefit the global economy. Srinivasan said China gives top priority to research and development, advanced manufacturing and innovation, with R&D spending second only to the United States and the most patent filings in the world. The 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, covering 2026 to 2030, focuses on innovation, technological self-reliance and new quality productive forces. IMF research indicates that artificial intelligence technology could boost growth in emerging market economies by 0.2 to 0.8 percent, although the benefits remain uncertain and may be distributed unevenly. He stressed the need for policies to disseminate artificial intelligence technology, develop skills, adapt labor markets, protect social welfare and ensure AI governance, noting that this transition requires stronger social safety nets, structural reform of finance and fiscal policy, and adjustments to incentives that have long aimed at generating growth. On regional impact, data show that Asia accounts for about two-thirds of global economic growth, with China contributing about 30 percent, and the IMF expects that every 1 percentage point increase in China's growth will be associated with about a 0.3 percentage point increase in growth for other Asian countries over the medium term, especially those with strong trade links to China such as Vietnam and South Korea. The IMF also estimates that reducing non-tariff trade barriers in a legally binding form consistent with World Trade Organization principles would raise Asia's real gross domestic product by 1.8 percent over the medium to long term, with ASEAN economies benefiting especially. Srinivasan also spoke about the IMF's International Finance Research Center in Shanghai, the fund's only research center outside Washington, D.C., saying it focuses on studying emerging market and middle-income economies, not just China. Since it opened last December, the center has established a research steering committee and expanded its team of economists, research analysts and visiting scholars. The China-IMF Capacity Development Center based at the same site helps translate research into practice through capacity building and peer learning.
Hua Seng Heng says gold will stay volatile on Fed and bond yields, recommends Gold Futures as a tool
Warawut Benjaputharak, Managing Director of Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures Co., Ltd., disclosed that short-term gold price direction remains volatile due to two main factors: a slowing labor market, which eases pressure on the Fed to raise rates and is a positive for gold, and long-term bond yields that remain at high levels, along with concerns over inflation and the U.S. fiscal position, which continue to cap any price recovery. Global gold faced heavy volatility after the United States reported that September non-farm payrolls rose by only 29,000, below market expectations, while the unemployment rate edged up from 4.1% to 4.2%. As a result, gold prices initially rebounded but were unable to hold above 4,200 dollars, before falling back to around 4,130 to 4,150 dollars per ounce. Investors should therefore keep a close watch on the bond market, especially the 10-year bond yield, real yields, and the dollar, alongside inflation data, the labor market, and energy prices. In a highly risky market environment, using tools such as Gold Futures and Mini Gold Online Futures to speculate along the trend and to hedge risk is highly beneficial.
GOLD · Monetary · Neutral Gold seen volatile on Fed rate pressure easing from weak payrolls versus high long-term bond yields and inflation/fiscal concerns; Gold Futures recommended as a hedging/speculation tool.
Chinese mutual funds close at highest rate in 8 years, expected to top 300 funds by year-end
Chinese mutual funds are shutting down at the fastest pace in eight years, after a weak Chinese stock market, a lack of new capital inflows, and continuous investor redemptions. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that 256 publicly offered funds have been liquidated this year, and another 46 have warned investors that they may soon close, making it possible that more than 300 funds will shut down by the end of this year. If that happens, it would be the highest number since 2018, when fund closures hit a record high after a major industry reform forced many funds to cease operations. China's securities regulations require fund managers to report remedial plans, such as fund liquidation, to regulators if a fund's net assets stay below 50 million yuan, or 7.5 million dollars, for 60 consecutive trading days. Most of the funds that closed this year fell into that category. Meanwhile, the China Securities Index Active Equity Fund Index has posted an average annual return of negative 0.8% over the past five years, even though it has risen 3.6% this year. The CSI 300 has already fallen 6% in 2026, while the Star 50 index, which is dominated by chip stocks, has trimmed its gain to 14%. Chen Junde, a fund manager at Guangdong Fund Investment, said funds that are too small, have too few investors, or consistently underperform their benchmarks face high operating costs and struggle to justify continuing operations.
