Adobe Forecasts 6.7% Rise in US Holiday Online Sales to Record $275 Billion

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Adobe Inc. said on September 28 that online spending in the United States will grow 6.7% this holiday season, reaching a record of about $275 billion. The forecast comes from Adobe Analytics and draws on more than a trillion visits to American retail sites, with growth close to last year's pace and discounting doing much of the work. Adobe turns about a third of its roughly $25.97 billion of revenue into operating profit and produced $9.35 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months, while revenue grew 12.9% in the most recent quarter. The shares have lost about 30% over twelve months and closed at $239.94 on September 30, as investors debate whether generative AI tools will reduce the number of creative software seats Adobe sells. Adobe Inc. was held by 81 hedge funds with a combined stake value of about $4.1 billion at the end of Q2 2026, down from 86 hedge fund holders with a cumulative investment value of around $5.7 billion in the previous quarter.

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Adobe Analytics forecasts 6.7% growth in US holiday online sales to a record $275B, a demand signal for e-commerce but only indirectly tied to Adobe's own software business.

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