Summary · why it matters
Asia Plus Securities reported that meat prices in Thailand moved in different directions in September 2026. The average pork price, based on CPF data, stood at 70 baht per kilogram, edging down 2.8% month-on-month as supply increased after small-scale farmers released pigs amid concerns over disease outbreaks, along with pressure from some smuggled imports. Meanwhile, broiler chicken prices rose slightly by 1.1% month-on-month to 45.50 baht per kilogram, the highest level in nearly four years, driven by a balance between demand and supply and continued strong export demand for chicken. On feed raw material prices in Thailand in September, corn weakened 1.5% month-on-month to 9.85 baht per kilogram as new output entered the market, while soybean meal rose 9.5% month-on-month to an average of 18.50 baht due to higher energy costs and volatile weather. Tuna prices in September averaged 2,275 dollars per tonne, up 8% month-on-month, due to higher costs of operating fishing vessels as oil prices rose, the FAD Ban measure prohibiting the use of fish aggregating devices, which reduced catch volumes, and the impact of weather and monsoons in fishing areas, causing tuna supply to tighten more than usual. The research team estimates that Thai meat prices in October may soften due to rain, flooding and the vegetarian festival, before gradually recovering in November and December when the tourism season and year-end festivals begin, which will support consumption. As for feed costs, although they tend to rise, especially soybean meal, large operators such as CPF have locked in raw material costs in advance through the first and second quarters of next year, which helps limit cost volatility to some extent. For the TU group, the research team estimates tuna prices are likely to weaken in the fourth quarter of 2026 as the normal fishing season begins, increasing the volume of fish caught. In addition, the effects of Super El Niño are pushing tuna schools to move more into the West and Central Pacific, an area where fishing is easier, so supply is likely to recover. The research team maintains an overweight stance on this group. For the land meat group, it assesses that both domestic pork and chicken prices in the third quarter of 2026 were higher quarter-on-quarter, while farming costs, although soybean meal rose, were offset by a larger decline in corn, and existing stocks also provided support, so the third quarter of 2026 is expected to be better than the second quarter of 2026. It therefore maintains a buy recommendation on CPF and advises accumulating GFPT when prices weaken. For the tuna and pet food business group, although it may face pressure from higher tuna costs, the research team still prefers ITC over TU due to its better ability to pass on costs to customers and an additional positive factor from an M&A deal expected to become clearer within the fourth quarter of 2026.
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited
GFPT Public Company Limited
Thai Union Group PCL
i-Tail Corp. PCL