i-Tail Corp. PCL

Finansia Syrus Securities said in an analysis today that it expects Thai Union Group to post net profit of approximately 1.29 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 2.5% from the previous quarter and flat compared with the same period last year. Earnings remain resilient despite pressure from rising expenses, supported by sales in the Ambient and Pet Food businesses, which continue to grow well. Meanwhile, if tuna prices decline in October, it would ease cost pressure and be a positive factor for margins in the next quarter. Finansia also maintained its forecast for TU's 2026 profit to grow 3.7% from last year, and shifted to a 2027 target price of 14.80 baht, seeing further upside from the merger and acquisition deal of i-Tail Corporation as well as the group's operational efficiency improvement plans. It therefore maintained its Buy recommendation.

Asia Plus Securities Public Company Limited, or ASPS, recommends that investors raise their cash holdings to 30% - 40% of their portfolios and shift strategy toward seeking out "stocks resilient to selling pressure" to cope with pressure on the Thai capital market from both domestic and foreign sources, particularly the selling by foreign investors who dumped Thai stocks for 7 consecutive trading days between September 22 and 30, totaling more than 30,572 million baht, pushing trading value to exceed 100 billion baht. The safe-haven stocks are divided into two main groups. The first group benefits from the weak baht amid foreign selling, namely CPF, ITC, KCE and HANA. The second group consists of low-volatility stocks entering their high season (Defensive & Healthcare), namely BH, BDMS, BCH and PR9. Meanwhile, the 5 standout stocks and DRs recommended to cope with the volatile market conditions are AAPL80, on the positive factor of the upcoming launch of 3 new smartphone models in the middle of this month; GOOGL01, on positive sentiment from the launch of the AI model "GEMINI 4 ARGON" that has risen to number 1 in the world; BDMS, on its third-quarter 2026 operating results that are clearly recovering, with revenue in July-August growing 8-9% compared with the same period last year, while the share price remains a laggard; CK, after the unlocking of the barcode law issue supports progress on the 2027 budget and new bidding projects, along with receiving dividends from its subsidiaries BEM, CKP and TTW; and ITC, whose fourth-quarter 2026 profit trend is expected to recover strongly compared with the previous quarter and which is a stock that directly benefits from the weakening baht trend.

Asia Plus Securities assessed the investment climate for October 1, 2026, saying the Thai capital market is facing pressure on all sides. Foreign investors net sold Thai stocks over seven consecutive trading days for a cumulative 30.572 billion baht between September 22 and 30, pushing trading value above 100 billion baht, while only four SET100 companies closed higher. The main pressure came from the yield on 10-year US government bonds, which surged to 5.30%, the highest since 2007, while the August 2026 PCE index grew 3.4% year on year, still above the Federal Reserve's 2.0% target. Domestically, there were flash floods, with preliminary damage estimates for one week reaching as high as 5 billion to 10 billion baht, potentially slowing third-quarter 2026 GDP growth to 2.1% to 2.2%, along with airport baggage problems that hurt the tourism atmosphere during Golden Week, and a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.45%, close to the 70% ceiling. The research team therefore recommends raising cash holdings to 30% to 40% of portfolios and selecting stocks resilient to selling pressure, highlighting five top picks: AAPL80, GOOGL01, BDMS, CK and ITC.

Pi Securities Public Company Limited, or Pi, estimates that the Thai stock market index will move within a range of 1,590 to 1,620 points, believing the market will not panic over the flooding in many areas of Bangkok because the situation is expected to improve soon and is unlikely to be as severe as the great flood of 2011. Pi therefore recommends investing in sectors not affected by the floods, namely hospitals such as BDMS and BCH, retail such as CPALL, energy such as PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC and TOP, and exporters such as ITC and TU. Statistics from the great flood of 2011 show that the hardest-hit sectors were packaging, down 44 percent, electronics, down 35 percent, and transport, down 22 percent, while sectors that outperformed the market were healthcare, down only 1.4 percent, ICT, down 5 percent, real estate investment trusts, down 7.5 percent, and commerce, down 12.6 percent. One month after the situation eased, the stocks that rebounded most prominently were construction materials, up 32 percent, petrochemicals, up 32 percent, packaging, up 18 percent, and food, up 11 percent. On external factors, the Dow Jones index closed up 478 points, or 0.9 percent, last Friday, supported by Microsoft and artificial intelligence stocks, while US consumer confidence figures came in higher than the market expected, though the trend is still declining on concerns about rising goods prices. Brent crude oil prices closed down 2.1 percent on Friday, but this morning rebounded 1 percent after reports that the United States rejected Iran's proposal and indicated that further attacks could occur.

Pie Securities stated that pressure from flooding on the Thai stock market is believed to be over, but global conditions remain pressured by the accelerating rise in US bond yields, which have continuously hit new record highs amid concerns over rising inflation driven by energy prices, and investors demanding higher returns in line with risks from US debt problems. It assesses the SET range at 1585 to 1610 points and recommends increased caution while focusing on stocks that benefit psychologically from rising yields, such as banking groups BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB; export groups ITC, TU; defensive groups like ADVANC; and energy groups PTT, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC. Meanwhile, CME FED Watch gives as much as 70% weight to the FED raising interest rates at its October meeting. The DJIA closed down 347 points, or 0.67%, overnight, pressured by oil prices and rising bond yields. Brent crude oil closed up 0.9% amid concerns about tight supply after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal. Recommended stocks are ITC with a buy recommendation and target of 19.90 baht, expecting outstanding growth in Q3 2026 to 5,417 million baht, and KBANK with a buy recommendation and target of 259 baht, expecting net profit to grow 2% in 2026 and expand 4% in 2027.

Mr. Thiraphong Chansiri, Chief Executive Officer of Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, said that the continued weakening of the baht is a clear positive factor, helping to support revenue from exports or overseas business, which accounts for roughly 88 to 89% of total revenue. The baht has weakened more than the company had previously estimated, further enhancing the competitiveness of the export sector in global markets. For its business outlook in the second half of 2026, TU expects continued growth on the back of an improved overall order picture, and it is maintaining its target of revenue growth of about 4 to 6% from the previous year, after generating revenue of approximately 65.8 billion baht in the first half of this year. As for the tariff discussions between the Thai and US governments, TU initially believes that the structure of import tariff rates in its main market, the United States, is unlikely to increase. On expansion strategy, the company continues to focus on overseas investment through its pet care business, via i-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, and its economic animal food, or pet food, business, via Thai Union Feedmill Public Company Limited, which will expand investment in a project to build a shrimp feed production plant in Ecuador. Both groups are seen as drivers of new growth, or a new S-Curve, over the long term. Meanwhile, analysts at Land and Houses Securities Public Company Limited recommend buying TU with a target price of 14.75 baht, because the business has passed the bottom of its restructuring. The transitional expense burden that had pressured its EBIT margin down to 4.6% in 2025 has ended, and a clear recovery is expected in 2027.

Thai Union Group, or TU, has revised its revenue growth forecast upward from 3-5% to 4-6%. Chief Executive Officer Thiraphong Chansiri said that if the company can sustain growth at that level amid current global economic conditions, it would consider that a satisfactory pace. The company continues to push ahead with overseas investment, seeing continued growth potential in the US, Chinese and Indian markets, and will weigh investments in line with the opportunities each country offers. On investment plans, the company expects its overall capital expenditure to remain at roughly the same level, with no plans for a significant increase, though it is ready to consider additional investment as appropriate if new business opportunities arise. Its priority remains the pet food business, one of its main units with growth potential. At the same time, it has plans to invest in the shrimp feed business in Ecuador, which is currently underway. As for i-Tail Corporation, or ITC, which operates the pet food business, it will need a clear investment plan for the next three to four years, with new investments expected to gradually emerge in the future.

The Ministry of Commerce reported Thailand's trade figures for August 2026, with exports expanding 24.3% year-on-year. Although this was below the market expectation of 24.8% year-on-year, it accelerated from 21.6% year-on-year in July 2026. Meanwhile, imports expanded 25.1% year-on-year, below market expectations and below July 2026's 30.0% year-on-year and 36.7% year-on-year respectively. Among export goods that grew well in the agricultural product group were fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit, up 24.0%; rubber, up 23.2%; fresh, chilled and frozen shrimp, up 18.8%; and processed chicken, up 10.5%. In the agro-industrial product group, pet food grew 17.5% and canned and processed seafood grew 4.8%. In the industrial product group, video and audio equipment and parts grew 1,155.7%; telephones, equipment and parts grew 151.2%; electrical transformers and parts grew 55.6%; computers, equipment and parts grew 42.1%; electrical appliances and parts grew 40.9%; integrated circuit boards grew 19.2%; and gems and jewelry, excluding gold, grew 3.2%, returning to growth after contracting the previous month. The research team at Phillip Securities sees this as positive sentiment for export stocks in the categories that grew well, as well as stocks related to those export goods, and views it as a boost for industrial estate and utility stocks. It selected 17 standout stocks: in the agricultural product group, CPF, NER, STA and TEGH; in the agro-industrial product group, AAI, ITC and TU; in the industrial product group, CCET, DELTA, HANA, HTECH and KCE; and in the industrial estate and utility group, AMATA, BGRIM, GPSC, ROJNA and WHA.

The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's exports in August 2026 were worth 34.618 billion dollars, expanding 24.3% year-on-year, the highest growth in 56 months since December 2021. Imports were worth 37.101 billion dollars, expanding 25.1%, resulting in a trade deficit of 2.482 billion dollars for August. The main supporting factors came from electronics and technology products, continued expansion of exports to the United States, and the recovery of fruit exports along with potential agricultural and food products such as pet food. For the first eight months of this year, total exports were worth 266.149 billion dollars, expanding 18.9%, while total imports were 303.986 billion dollars, expanding 36.1%, leaving a trade deficit of 37.837 billion dollars. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office still forecasts 2026 exports at 5% to 11%, with a midpoint of 8%, and will review the target again in November. But given the eight-month growth rate of 18.9%, full-year 2026 exports are estimated to expand by as much as 15%, representing a record high of 391.2674 billion dollars, which would require average monthly exports of 31 billion dollars over the remaining four months. Krungsri Securities said Thailand's August export figures were close to market expectations, but high imports still pushed Thailand to a trade deficit of 2.48 billion dollars. Notable expanding export categories included electronic components, rubber, shrimp, chicken, and pet food. It holds a positive view on DELTA, HANA, GFPT, ITC, and AAI, recommending trading with a focus on DELTA. Phillip Securities sees positive sentiment for export stocks in categories that grew well in August, as well as stocks in the industrial estate and utilities groups.

Yuanta Securities said i-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, or ITC, is likely to post strong earnings and high dividends. Its research team expects normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 at 855 million baht, up 18% from the previous quarter and 9% from a year earlier, on revenue forecast at 5,429 million baht, growing 12% from the previous quarter and 15% from a year earlier, driven by sales volume growth in the United States and new product launches by customers, especially cat food. The gross profit margin is expected to hold steady at a high 24%. Selling and administrative expenses are forecast at 592 million baht, up 9% from the previous quarter and 22% from a year earlier, due to higher shipping costs and about 45 million baht in advisory fees for an M&A deal in the United States, a one-time expense unrelated to operations. Net profit is expected at 780 million baht. For the fourth quarter of 2026, the research team expects revenue to keep growing on both seasonal factors and new customers, with the gross profit margin likely rising to 25%, and it holds a positive view on progress of the M&A deal in the United States, which is expected to be a pet food manufacturing business that would add production capacity and reduce import taxes. The deal is expected to have a chance of closing in October this year, with some revenue to be recognized in 2026. The research team kept its 2026 profit forecast and maintained its 2027 profit forecast at 3,798 million baht, up 10% from a year earlier, with upside risk from M&A. It maintained a Buy recommendation with an end-2027 target price of 21.50 baht. It expects a second-half 2026 dividend of 0.55 baht per share, a yield of 3%.

Kanthara Ladawan na Ayudhya, an executive director of Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, disclosed that the roadshow in the United States, meetings with foreign institutional investors, and cooperation between Thai capital market agencies and the New York Stock Exchange are positive factors helping foreign investors pay more attention to Thailand, and may mark the beginning of drawing foreign capital flows, or Fund Flow, back into the Thai stock market after a period of heavy outflows. The signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Thai capital market and the New York Stock Exchange on the listing of securities in more than one market, or Dual Listing, is an important development that will help increase liquidity and raise the standards of the Thai capital market. For short-term strategy, Kanthara views that the market remains highly volatile due to US government bond yields rising to around 5.25% and oil prices that remain high. He recommends monitoring Brent crude oil at around 102 dollars per barrel; if it can hold above this level, prices may continue to rise, but for concerns to ease, prices should fall to around 91 to 93 dollars per barrel. He also recommends gradually accumulating PTT Public Company Limited, or PTT, and PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, when oil prices weaken, and holds a positive view on commercial banks, giving a fair value for Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited, or BBL, at 240 baht. As for the earnings outlook for the third quarter of 2026, he views that commercial banks remain continuously strong, while the export sector is interesting, especially Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, and I-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, or ITC. Meanwhile, the hospital sector has an opportunity to recover seasonally, with attention on Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited, or PR9, and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited, or BDMS. He assesses that the Thai stock market is still more suitable for short-term trading than for chasing prices, with a key resistance level around 1,612 to 1,620 points, and that a strong break above this level would require new positive factors to support it.

Land and Houses Securities issued an analysis recommending buying ITC and PTT shares, with a strategic target price of 19.5 baht for ITC, equivalent to a FY69F P/E of 17.1x, and 44.75 baht for PTT, equivalent to a FY69F P/E of 10.3x. For ITC, it estimates resistance at 17.8 baht, support at 16.5 baht, and a stop loss at 15.2 baht. It expects normal profit in Q3/69F of 827 million baht, up 5% year on year but down 3.5% quarter on quarter, while revenue hits a peak of 5.4 billion baht, up 15% year on year and 19.8% quarter on quarter, supported by rising orders in the United States, especially for pouches and from major global customers, even though gross profit margin weakens on higher tuna and packaging costs. It also expects a dividend this year of 1 baht per share, a dividend yield of about 6%. For PTT, it estimates resistance at 45 baht, support at 42.75 baht, and a stop loss at 41.75 baht, with FY69F profit trends strong after the upstream and downstream businesses recover together, and it announced an interim dividend of 1.4 baht per share, a dividend yield of about 3.2%, going ex-dividend on 7 October 2026.

KGI Securities (Thailand) expects ITC to report 3Q26F net profit of 790 million baht, down 3% YoY and 6% QoQ. Excluding a one-time item from an import tax refund recorded in 2Q26, normalized 3Q26F profit is expected to be flat YoY and up 9% QoQ. Revenue from adjusted sales in 3Q26F is expected to hit a new record high of 5.3 billion baht, up 12% YoY and 9% QoQ, driven by higher sales volumes from global pet food companies and private-label customers in the United States. Normalized gross margin is expected to improve to 24.3%, even though tuna prices in 3QTD stood at 1,975 dollars per ton, up 27% YoY and 12% QoQ. Preliminary core profit for 4Q26F is expected to rise both YoY and QoQ on continued sales growth and a favorable product mix, even though tuna prices will likely remain high at around 1,800 to 1,900 dollars per ton. KGI maintained its buy recommendation on ITC with a 2027F target price of 21.00 baht, based on a PE of 17.0x, and expects an attractive dividend yield of around 6% per year.

Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited estimates that ITC's normalized profit in the third quarter of 2026 will be 817 million baht, up 3.8% year on year, reflecting core operations that continue to grow well. Net profit is expected at 797 million baht, down 1.8% year on year and 5.6% quarter on quarter, due to higher SG&A expenses, mainly from consulting fees for studying M&A deals in the United States and China, capped at no more than 50 million baht, as well as higher freight and shipping costs in line with oil prices and geopolitical conditions. Third-quarter 2026 sales are expected to set the highest level of 2026 since the start of the year, driven by sales volumes in key markets, especially the United States, from new Sachet line projects and the Pet Treats group, which grew more than 20% year on year. Gross margin is still maintained within the target range of 23-25% through price adjustments with customers and management of conversion costs. The research house has revised down its 2026 net profit forecast to 3.35 billion baht, but it still represents strong growth of 12.64% year on year, and has switched to a 2027 base price of 21.00 baht per share, with a Buy recommendation. It expects fourth-quarter 2026 operating results to continue growing both quarter on quarter and year on year, supported by strong sales and new products in the pipeline, as well as the arrival of the high season, with upside from M&A in the United States and China that will strengthen its production base and enhance long-term competitiveness.

ITC is poised for strong growth in 2026 after management raised its baht revenue growth target to 14-17% from 8-11%, and its dollar revenue target to 17-20% from 9-12%, in line with its first-half 2026 results and continued growth in orders from the United States and Europe, particularly for pet snacks, which carry high margins. The company aims to maintain its gross profit margin at 23-25% through gradual price increases to offset raw material costs, and is in talks to acquire a production base in the United States while expanding its business in China. Analysts have raised their 2026 net profit forecast by 5% to 3.5 billion baht, up 17.7% year on year, on total revenue expected to rise 14.4% year on year to 20.8 billion baht, with a gross profit margin forecast at 26.5% and SG&A to revenue expected to rise to 10.9% from 10.5% a year earlier. Nestlé's investment in a pet food plant in Thailand is expected to have a limited impact. The recommendation is "buy" with a 2027 target price of 24.10 baht, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 times, compared with the current share price at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 times, and a forecast full-year 2026 dividend yield of 6.2%.

Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, or KKPS, has upgraded its recommendation on Thai Union Group, or TU, from Hold to Buy and raised its target price from 13.30 baht to 16.00 baht, seeing attractive upside from the current share price of 12.40 baht. TU shares last traded at 13.20 baht, up 0.50 baht or 3.94%, on turnover of 134.70 million baht. The research team noted that TU holds a 79.3% stake in i-Tail Corporation, or ITC, and that after subtracting the value of the ITC stake from TU's total market value, the remaining core business, excluding ITC, is worth about 7.0 billion baht, or a P/E of just 3.5 times for 2026. Although that business generated 42% of total profit in 2025, it is expected to rise to 47% in 2028. KKPS expects the net margin of the ex-ITC business to increase from 1.7% in 2026 to 2.3% in 2028, supporting average earnings per share growth of 18% a year over the next three years, while ROA rises from 2.6% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2028. It raised its normalized earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by an average of 16%. On dividends, TU is expected to offer a yield of 5.9% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, while the estimated P/E falls from 10.02 times in 2026 to 7.73 times in 2028. KKPS also issued a research report on ITC in parallel and upgraded it to Buy as well, given the two companies' linked shareholding structure and operating results.

Asia Plus Securities assessed that agri-food stocks outperformed the market yesterday, led by ITC up 7.27%, followed by TU up 5.65%, CPF up 2.70% and GFPT up 1.90%, compared with the SET which rose 1.32%. The gains are expected to have been supported by the baht's weakening trend in line with the US dollar's appreciation after the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% for the first time in more than three years and signalled continued tightening of monetary policy, bringing food exporter stocks back into focus. Meanwhile, second-half 2026 earnings are expected to recover from the first half of 2026 on seasonal factors in seafood, pet food and chicken meat exports. The research team maintains an "overweight" investment rating for the agriculture and food sector, with ITC still the top pick on the back of strong second-half 2026 profit prospects, product price increases and the opportunity for further growth through future M&A. GFPT and CPF benefit from the upcycle in meat, pork and chicken prices and still-strong chicken export prospects, while TU is supported by a recovery in operating efficiency as well as the potential benefit from Super El Niño conditions, which could help lower tuna costs in 2027.

TU shares rose 7.26% to 13.30 baht, leading subsidiary ITC up 6.67% to 17.60 baht, supported by the baht weakening to 33.38-33.40 baht per US dollar and the onset of the export peak season. Meanwhile, Pi Securities is positive on Britain's move to cut import tariffs on Thai tuna to 0% from 24%, which should support revenue in the second half. Bualuang Securities said TU is entering a new profit cycle after its transition period begins to end, seeing 2027 as the turning point for profits, and raised its 2030 profit forecast by 30%, from 6.1 billion baht to 7.9 billion baht in an upside case, bringing ROE close to 15%, while maintaining a target price of 15.60 baht. The view aligns with TU's Investor Day in August 2026, led by Group Chief Executive Officer Thiraphong Chansiri and new Group Chief Financial Officer Ratiporn Ratcharoen, which indicated that TU is shifting from restructuring to harvesting benefits, with three main strategies over the next three years: expanding revenue, improving cost efficiency, and managing capital expenditure and cash flow cycles with greater discipline.

Shares of i-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, or ITC, stood at 17.50 baht, up 1.00 baht or 6.06%, on trading value of 169.30 million baht, after Kiatnakin Phatra Securities Public Company Limited, or KKPS, raised its recommendation on ITC to Buy from Underperform and lifted its target price to 18.70 baht from 14.70 baht, saying the previous pressures are beginning to ease, including the profit outlook, gross margin and dividend payments. The research team said the earlier concerns centered on two issues: the outlook for gross margin and profit from premium product lines, and a dividend payout ratio that could come in below expectations. Both factors are now showing improvement. For its second-quarter 2569 results, ITC posted an adjusted gross margin of 24.0%, above the expected 23.2%, while pet food exports to the United States grew faster than expected on higher average selling prices, particularly in the cat food segment. KKPS therefore raised its gross margin forecasts for ITC in 2569 to 2571 by an average of 0.6 percentage points and lifted its normal profit forecasts for the same period by 5.8%. On dividends, KKPS had previously expected ITC to pay out about 70%, but ITC paid a dividend for the first six months of 2569 of 0.55 baht per share, a payout ratio of about 95%. The research team thus raised its dividend payout forecasts for ITC in 2569 to 2571 to an average of 85% from 70%. ITC shares trade at a 2569 P/E of about 15 times, below the average of 29.4 times for OEM pet food producers in China. Return on equity for 2569 is expected at 13.8%, above the group average of 8.6%, while return on assets for 2569 is expected at 12.2%, above the group average of 5.4%. Earnings per share for ITC in 2569 are expected to grow 12%.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, as the market expected, while its Dot Plot signaled one more 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25% by the end of this year, even as the overall picture reflects a High for Longer stance. Efinancethai gathered the views of analysts from four houses. Krungsri Securities expects the SET to rebound today, with resistance at 1,575 and 1,583 points and support at 1,550 and 1,545 points. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move Sideways to Sideways Up in a range of 1,555–1,572 points. Pi Securities assesses a range of 1,550–1,580 points, and Aira Securities says the market has already priced in the concerns. Sectors seen benefiting include commercial banks, with standout picks KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP; exporters and electronic components, DELTA, HANA, TU and ITC; Value Play and medical stocks, BDMS, BCH and BH; groups that get a psychological boost from softer crude oil prices, such as airlines AOT, THAI and BA, construction materials and contractors TASCO, STECON and PYLON, power and utilities GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, and hotels AWC and ERW. Stocks seen under pressure include groups carrying high financial costs, such as utilities and power, and industries tied to falling oil prices, such as oil and refineries, amid psychological pressure after Brent crude fell sharply to US$105 a barrel.

Pie Securities stated that the U.S. stock market remains volatile due to signals of slowing investment from AI leaders, pressuring the SEMI group, while U.S. bond yields continue to rise across all maturities, reflecting concerns over inflation and declining confidence in the U.S. government. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.56% as investors worried about an AI slowdown following a proposal by the CEO of Anthropic calling for a pause in AI development, leading to selling in chip and data center stocks. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil closed above 100 dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West Pipeline. GOOGL rose 3.2%, MSFT gained 2%, and META added 2.7%. The CME FedWatch tool assigns a 92% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. For the domestic market, the SET is estimated at 1,580 to 1,605 points. This morning, the KOSPI fell 0.6%, which may pressure tech stocks such as DELTA and HANA. The strategy therefore focuses on 13 value stocks: banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB; hospital group BDMS, BH, BCH, PR9; retail group CPALL, CPN, HMPRO; and export group ITC, TU, which benefit from the weakening baht.

Asia Plus Securities stated that the Commerce Minister revealed that tariff negotiations with the US have made significant progress, with an expected conclusion within one week. The Thai government aims to reduce US tariffs to 10%, down from the current additional 12.5% imposed under Section 301 regarding forced labor. If successful, the agricultural and food sector will receive positive sentiment, especially ITC, which derives 60% of its revenue from the US, and TU, with a 40% share. Meanwhile, CPF and GFPT will benefit limitedly due to low chicken and pork exports to the US, but they will gain indirect benefits from the opening of corn and soybean meal import markets. The research department maintains an overweight recommendation and selects ITC as the top pick.

Asia Plus Securities research department stated that trade data for July 2026 showed Thai export value surged to 34,789.1 million US dollars, up 21.6% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 17.8%. This brings the first seven months' growth to 18.2%, and builds confidence that full-year exports will grow at a double-digit rate. Although there was a trade deficit this month, it narrowed from the previous month. Beneficiary stock groups include electronics (KCE, HANA) growing 67% on AI trends and global component demand; refined oil (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC) expanding 120%; agricultural and food products, rubber (STA, NER) up 33%; pet food (ITC, AAI) up 17%; and processed chicken still expanding well. However, risk factors from additional US semiconductor industry tariffs may impact Thai stocks such as HANA, CCET, KCE, and DELTA more in terms of negative sentiment than direct earnings impact, as Thailand is in the production chain that could face indirect shocks from slowing global goods demand.

Finansia Syrus Securities, or FSS, stated in its analysis today that it recommends "buying" shares of I-Tel Corporation, or ITC, with a target price of 21 baht. It sees a strong performance trend in the second half of the year, following the company's upward revision of its 2026 revenue target to growth of 17-20% from the previous year. FSS expects third-quarter 2026 profit to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, before reaching its peak for the year in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by seasonal factors. Meanwhile, product price increases and the cost-plus policy will help improve profit margins. FSS forecasts net profit for 2026 at 3.53 billion baht, up 19%, and for 2027 at 3.93 billion baht, up 11%. It also sees upside from potential M&A deals in China and the United States. The valuation is attractive, trading at only about 15 times and 13 times the 2026-2027 PER, respectively. It also expects a dividend yield of around 5% per year. In terms of strategy, support is at 17.20-17.00 baht, with resistance at 18.00-18.20 baht, 19.00 baht, and 19.50 baht.

The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's export value in July 2026 stood at 34.8 billion US dollars, expanding 21.6% year-on-year, higher than the market's expectation of 17.8%. Meanwhile, imports for the same month were 38.4 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, lower than expected, resulting in a trade deficit of 3.61 billion US dollars, less than forecast. Products with good growth include rubber, processed chicken, pet food, processed canned seafood, and electronic goods. Stocks in these sectors, such as STA, GFPT, ITC, TU, DELTA, HANA, and KCE, benefit accordingly. In the first seven months of the year, exports totaled 232 billion US dollars, up 18.2%, while imports were 267 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, with a trade deficit of 35.4 billion US dollars. The Ministry of Commerce sees support from global demand for technology products and digital infrastructure, as well as accelerated imports to prepare for US trade policies. Meanwhile, brokers like Krungsri Securities and Phillip Securities view positively on export-related stocks and recommend top picks such as DELTA, HANA, KCE, AMATA, GULF, GPSC, KBANK, and KTB.

Shareholders of i-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, or ITC, approved lending to Thai Union Group Public Company Limited in an amount not exceeding 6 billion baht to manage surplus cash efficiently. At the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders No. 1/2569 held on 24 August 2569, shareholders attending and entitled to vote, representing 93.7 percent, voted in favour of the transaction, exceeding the required approval threshold of not less than three-quarters under relevant rules. Thai Union, as an interested shareholder, was not entitled to vote on this agenda item. Mr Roy Chan, Chief Executive Officer of ITC, said the voting result reflects overwhelming shareholder support for the transaction and confidence in the company's surplus cash management approach. This transaction will help ITC generate better returns from surplus cash while maintaining sufficient liquidity for business operations and future expansion. The transaction terms also include measures to protect the interests of ITC and its shareholders, such as setting a maximum lending amount, allowing ITC to recall the loan when necessary, and regular reviews of the recall right by non-interested directors.

Bualuang Securities analyzed third-quarter 2026 profit trends, saying overall net profit and core profit are likely to expand compared with the same period last year, but are expected to slow from the previous quarter. Key support comes from Brent crude oil prices rising an average of 28 percent year on year, Singapore GRM refining margins surging 434 percent year on year, and wider petrochemical spreads for both HDPE and PET in the West, along with momentum from mobile and internet service revenue, electronics demand tied to the AI and data center cycle, and the recognition of new production capacity and overseas power plant profits at GULF. At the same time, higher jet fuel costs are pressuring airlines, and narrowing interest margins are weighing on the banking sector. Groups whose core profit grew year on year were led by energy, petrochemicals, construction materials, electronics, communications, and retail. Groups whose core profit fell year on year were led by transport and banking. Bualuang Securities recommends a selective investment strategy focused on stocks whose third-quarter profit trends are still expected to grow strongly, have not seen sharp profit downgrades over the past three months, and have clear positive factors supporting recovery. These include KCE, CBG, ITC, BH, BDMS, AOT, CENTEL, and GPSC.

Bualuang Securities revealed that net profits for the second quarter of 2069 for stocks under its coverage came in 5.6% above market expectations, with 48% of stocks beating estimates compared to a five-year average of 37%. Standout performers were led by SCC, up 41% from its petrochemical business, SCGP up 20% from packaging and recycling, KKP up 18% from non-interest income, and TU up 10.9% from seafood demand. Meanwhile, DELTA missed profit forecasts by 31% due to supply chain issues. The research team also noted positive signals from IT retail sales at COM7 and ADVICE, which grew 10% and 17% year-on-year in July. In the lifestyle segment, MOSHI saw same-store sales rise 9% on the squishy toy trend. Tourism continued to recover, with foreign arrivals in July reaching 2.5 million, and ERW's revenue per available room expected to grow both year-on-year and month-on-month. Export demand for food and pet food remained strong, with TU projecting 5-6% growth and ITC projecting 10% growth. The investment strategy therefore focuses on COM7, ADVICE, MOSHI, CPALL, ERW, TU, and ITC.

Thai Union Group, or TU, will receive interim dividends from two subsidiaries totaling over 1.4 billion baht. ITC is paying a dividend of 0.55 baht per share, with an XD date of August 11 and payment on August 26. TFM is paying 0.18 baht per share, with an XD date of August 13 and payment also on August 26. Based on TU's shareholding of 79.30 percent in ITC and 51.00 percent in TFM, it will receive approximately 1.308 billion baht from ITC and about 91 million baht from TFM, totaling over 1.4 billion baht. Meanwhile, TU's share price rose 4.27 percent in July, while ITC's share price increased 8.70 percent.

Japan's cabinet has approved a reduction in the consumption tax on food and beverage items from 8% to 1% for a period of two years, starting April 2027. This marks the first such tax cut since the consumption tax system was introduced in 1989. The measure is part of a plan to ease the impact of inflation under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, aiming to reduce the cost of living and stimulate domestic spending. The government also plans to distribute cash handouts to low- and middle-income earners under a budget of approximately 600 billion yen per year, effectively bringing the real tax burden for the target group down to zero. Bualuang Securities stated that this measure provides significant support for consumption in Japan and benefits Thai food exporters, particularly GFPT through its subsidiaries GFN and McKey, which supply chicken parts to fast-food restaurants in Japan, as well as TU, which earns revenue from tuna products in the Japanese market, and ITC, an exporter of pet food to that market.

Bualuang Securities sees TU returning as a short-term standout after pressure from US import tariffs begins to ease and the fundamentals of its core business start to recover. The Ambient Seafood and Frozen Seafood segments, which account for 77% of first-half 2026 revenue, returned to growth of 2% and 5% year-on-year respectively, driven by recovering sales volumes. Meanwhile, the proportion of own-brand products rose to 59% of sales, lifting the first-half 2026 gross margin to 19.8% from 19.3% a year earlier. For the second half of 2026, TU is expected to be supported by still-strong US tuna demand, the exemption of tuna import duties in the UK from 26 June 2026, and a weaker baht. The research team has raised its 2026 earnings forecast for TU by 6%, projecting profit growth of 17%, with a dividend yield of around 6%. The stock trades at a 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of just 10.2 times. It therefore recommends rotating into the stock and has raised the target price to 15.60 baht from 13.60 baht. As for ITC, it remains a long-term growth stock, with earnings expected to grow 13% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, along with a dividend yield of around 6%. Although it trades at a 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 times, which is considered a premium due to its superior structural business growth, the recommendation stays at buy, and the target price has been raised to 22.00 baht from 19.00 baht.

Analysts at Finansia Syrus Securities assess that the SET Index in August 2026 has a chance to rise and test key resistance at 1,680 to 1,700 points, maintaining a positive view as long as the index holds above 1,580 to 1,600 points. They have also raised the index target to 1,710 points by mid-2027, based on an estimated average earnings per share of 100.5 baht and a target price-to-earnings ratio of 17 times. Second-quarter 2026 net profits of Thai listed companies are expected to decline 7% from the previous quarter and 10% from the same period last year, pressured by banking, energy, transport, and property sectors, while electronics, petrochemicals, packaging, and telecoms show better trends. Analysts also believe foreign fund inflows into the Thai stock market will continue, as foreign ownership excluding DELTA remains below past peaks. For the August strategy, they recommend selective investment in stocks with standout second-quarter 2026 results and bright second-half outlooks, highlighting picks such as BTG, ITC, MAGURO, SJWD, and STA.

I-Tail Corporation, or ITC, has raised its 2026 sales revenue growth target in US dollar terms to 17 to 20 percent, up from 9 to 12 percent, and in Thai baht terms to 14 to 17 percent, up from 8 to 11 percent, while maintaining its gross margin target at 23 to 25 percent. Chief Financial Officer Yuwaporn Phumprasert said the company is confident in its business outlook thanks to an expanding customer base, innovative product development, a higher proportion of premium pet food, and innovative product orders scheduled for delivery from the third and fourth quarters, which are the high season. The company also plans to invest around one billion baht to expand production capacity in line with customer demand and to support long-term growth. Key export markets such as the United States and Europe remain important drivers, while the global pet food industry is expected to grow at an average of 3.5 percent per year from 2026 to 2030, with the market value in 2026 forecast to rise to 154 billion US dollars.

ITC shares rose 2% after the company reported second-quarter net profit for fiscal year 2026 of 844.09 million baht, up 21.3% from a year earlier and 7% above the average analyst forecast. Total sales revenue came in at 4.87 billion baht, an increase of 8.8% from the same period last year. For the first half of fiscal 2026, net profit reached 1.72 billion baht, up 25%, while total revenue was 10.04 billion baht, a 15.1% increase from the prior year. The board also approved an interim dividend of 0.55 baht per share, representing a payout ratio of 96.2%, with the ex-dividend date set for August 11, 2026, and payment on August 26, 2026. Citing strong operating results, ITC raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth target in US dollar terms to 17 to 20%, up from the previous range of 9 to 12%, while maintaining its gross margin target of 23 to 25% and selling and administrative expenses to sales ratio of 9 to 10%.

Yuanta Securities has upgraded ITC to a buy recommendation with a new target price of 21.50 baht, based on a 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of 17 times. The upgrade follows a 5 percent increase in normalized profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 3.45 billion baht and 3.80 billion baht, respectively. The company has significantly raised its 2026 revenue growth target from 8 to 11 percent to 14 to 17 percent, while maintaining a gross profit margin range of 23 to 25 percent. Normalized profit for the second quarter of 2026 came in at 725 million baht, broadly in line with expectations. Although this represents a 16.2 percent decline from the previous quarter, it marks a 1.8 percent increase from the same period last year. The gross profit margin stood at 24.0 percent, slightly above forecasts, while total revenue of 4.87 billion baht fell 6 percent quarter-on-quarter and 9 percent year-on-year. Looking ahead to the second half of the year through 2027, normalized profit is expected to accelerate, potentially reaching 1 billion baht per quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026. In addition, ITC has declared an interim dividend of 0.55 baht per share, exceeding expectations, and has raised its full-year 2026 dividend estimate to 1.10 baht per share, representing a yield of 6.4 percent.

Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, will receive total dividends of approximately 1.31 billion baht after i-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, or ITC, a subsidiary in which TU holds a 79.30% stake, announced an interim dividend payment of 0.55 baht per share, representing a payout ratio of 96.2% from first-half 2026 operating results. ITC reported sales of 10.04 billion baht, up 15.1% from the same period last year, and adjusted net profit of 1.96 billion baht, up 22.5%. The XD date is set for 11 August 2026, with dividend payment on 26 August 2026. The dividend will help strengthen TU's cash flow and financial position.

Thailand's exports in June 2026 expanded 20.8 percent from a year earlier, exceeding market expectations of around 15 percent, with a value of 34.6 billion dollars. Meanwhile, imports rose 50.3 percent to 41.1 billion dollars, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately 6.53 to 6.57 billion dollars. Key export growth drivers included pet food, which expanded for the tenth consecutive month, rising 22 percent, supporting ITC and AAI. Processed chicken grew for the seventh straight month, up 8.2 percent, boosting GFPT. Computers and components expanded for the 27th consecutive month, rising 57.4 percent, while phones, equipment, and components grew for the 13th straight month, surging 186 percent, benefiting electronic component stocks such as DELTA, HANA, and CCET. Rubber returned to growth for the first time in 14 months, supporting STA. On the risk side, new US tariff measures under Section 301 could affect some export stocks in the second half of the year.

The independent financial advisor, or IFA, has approved ITC Corporation lending to Thai Union Group, or TU, its major shareholder with an approximately 79.30% stake, a loan of up to 6 billion baht with a term of no more than five years and an annual interest rate of 2.50%. The purpose is to enhance the efficiency of surplus cash management and increase investment returns for ITC under an appropriate level of risk. The loan is unsecured and can be called early with 30 days' notice. The IFA views the transaction as reasonable and beneficial to ITC and will present it to the extraordinary general meeting of shareholders for approval on 24 August 2026.