Asia Plus says tourism stocks face limited impact from Bangkok floods, recommends CENTEL

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Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities assesses that although flooding in Bangkok has caused flight delays, major airports Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang remain open and operating normally, while inner Bangkok and key destinations such as Chiang Mai, Phuket, and Samui remain safe. If the situation eases quickly, the impact on travel during the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027, which is the tourism high season, will be limited. The Middle East situation remains the main factor shaping the direction of the tourism sector. For CENTEL, Thailand accounts for about 60% of hotel revenue, split between Bangkok at 22% and the provinces at 38%, which helps cushion the impact of the floods. Its restaurant business has about 34% of restaurant revenue in Bangkok, with average restaurant sales in Bangkok at roughly 12 million baht per day, and every single day that sales are hit by 30% to 50% would affect quarterly sales by only 0.1% to 0.2%. ERW says its Lux to Eco hotels, which account for 74% of revenue, remain open as normal, with about 54% of revenue in Bangkok, while Hop Inn, which accounts for 26% of revenue, has some branches affected but mostly in the provinces. MINT derives about 50% of revenue from hotels in the EU, so it faces a more limited fundamental impact. The research team maintains its view that normal profits for AOT and Thai hotel operators for the October to December period will expand both quarter on quarter and year on year, continuing through the January to March 2027 period in line with the tourism season. Although the market may open risk-off in the short term, the effect on earnings forecasts remains limited. It still favours CENTEL, followed by AOT, while ERW is an event trade and THAI is a tactical buy after its share price fell 12% year to date versus the SET's gain of 28%. If jet fuel rises above its previous peak in April at 209 US dollars per barrel and affects flight capacity, that would be a tactical trigger to consider reducing weightings in the tourism sector.

Impact on assets 5

Consumer Discretionary▲ · 3 stocks
Industrials▲ · 1 stocks
Airports Of Thailand PCL
AOT
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Research team maintains normal profits for AOT will expand QoQ and YoY through the tourism high season despite Bangkok floods.

Aerospace & Aviation▲ · 1 stocks
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