Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure

The Erawan Group Public Company Limited, or ERW, has signalled that its third-quarter 2026 operating results will come in better than expected, driven by a strong recovery in the Middle East tourist market after the war situation eased and by continued signs of recovery in the Chinese tourist market. Miss Tawanna Termwattanakorn, investor relations officer at ERW, said these factors helped room rates at hotels ranging from Economy to Luxury, especially hotels in the Bangkok CBD area, improve beyond the company's expectations. Meanwhile, the budget hotel business under the HOP INN brand is still performing in line with expectations; although the third quarter is a low season, it received support from corporate customers and domestic business travel. For the fourth-quarter 2026 outlook, the company sees forward bookings at a good level, with long-haul markets beginning to show bookings for stays from late November through December, together with the high season and major conferences and events such as the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, as well as the Tomorrowland music festival in the Pattaya area. The company expects average occupancy in the second half of 2026, including the fourth quarter, to be around 80 percent, and is maintaining its target of roughly 6 percent revenue growth in 2026 from the previous year under the original plan. It will continue to open new HOP INN hotels in Thailand as planned, while its overseas expansion has projects that are already clear and it continues to study additional opportunities.

Neogen raised its fiscal year guidance, sending shares up 11% premarket, with the food safety company now projecting revenue of $885 million to $890 million versus its earlier range of $880 million to $885 million and the FactSet consensus of $883.2 million. Penguin Solutions climbed more than 4% after fourth quarter adjusted earnings of $1 per share on revenue of $566.7 million beat the 77 cents per share and $521 million analysts polled by FactSet expected. Constellation Brands fell 5% even after reporting better-than-expected fiscal second quarter results, with earnings of $3.74 per share on revenue of $2.63 billion against analyst expectations of $3.56 per share on revenue of $2.54 billion, as beer operating margins decreased 160 basis points year on year and depletions fell slightly. Flutter Entertainment rose nearly 3% after Citi upgraded the FanDuel parent to buy from neutral, saying recent share price weakness on Brazil and September US sports results concerns are overblown.

Sportradar Group AG announced Wednesday that it struck a deal to sell Atrium Sports for $170M in cash, a transaction the company said represents an accretive double-digit EBITDA multiple relative to Sportradar's market valuation. The sale of the sports technology business is expected to close in Q4, subject to satisfaction of customary closing conditions. CEO Carsten Koerl said the transaction optimizes and streamlines the business as the company focuses on its core betting, gaming, and media priorities, while enabling it to retain key technology assets and capabilities that will support growth and innovation, and that the proceeds will further strengthen the balance sheet and support capital allocation priorities. Sportradar acquired Atrium Sports in 2021. Going forward, Sportradar will retain certain technology assets, capabilities, and revenue that underpin its core offerings and are already integrated into its business, including automated video production cameras, automated graphics solutions, certain computer vision capabilities, and competition management products.

Japan Exchange Group announced on the 7th that it will add 35 companies, including Seria, to the TOPIX index as part of the periodic reshuffle of constituents of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's stock price index, which begins at the end of this month. The new additions, besides Seria, include Japan McDonald's Holdings, Toei Animation, and GO, comprising 23 companies from the Standard Market and 12 from the Growth Market; until now, only companies from the former TSE First Section were eligible. The number of constituent stocks is expected to rise from the current 1,634 to 1,669. Meanwhile, 683 companies that do not meet criteria such as market capitalization will be designated as transition-measure stocks, with their index weightings reduced in stages. If no improvement is seen in a reassessment to be conducted in October next year, they will be removed from TOPIX at the end of July 2028.

ASL Securities initiated coverage on Minor International, or MINT, with a Buy rating and a 2027 target price of 28.50 baht, against a market price of 20.40 baht, implying 39.70% upside. It also forecast dividend yields of 3.4% in 2026, 3.6% in 2027 and 3.9% in 2028. The research team expects normalized net profit for 2026 to 2028 to grow steadily to 9.756 billion baht, 10.573 billion baht and 11.222 billion baht, or earnings per share of 1.72 baht, 1.86 baht and 1.98 baht respectively, with total revenue of 166 billion baht, 169 billion baht and 172 billion baht, growing 3.5%, 2.2% and 1.6% respectively. For the third quarter of 2026, total revenue is expected at 41.6 billion baht, up 3.0% year on year, and normalized profit at 2.8 billion baht, up 9.5% year on year, supported by higher advance room bookings than a year earlier thanks to global events such as Formula 1 and the IMF-World Bank Meetings in Thailand. Meanwhile, the plan to set up a hotel real estate investment trust worth 1 billion US dollars, or about 30 billion baht, which would list 14 hotels in Europe and Thailand on the Singapore Exchange, has been delayed from the second half of 2026 to 2027 because of geopolitical uncertainty and war risk in the Middle East.

Starbucks has now delivered four consecutive quarters of positive comparable-store sales, with margins expanding for two straight quarters under CEO Brian Niccol's back-to-basics turnaround. U.S. comparable sales rose 7.9% in the latest quarter, with transactions up 4.2% and pricing contributing less than one percentage point to average-ticket growth, while food availability reached close to 99%, about 10 percentage points better than a year earlier. Consolidated operating margin hit 14.4%, up 430 basis points year over year, and management raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.55-$2.65, supported by a $2 billion cost-savings program running through fiscal 2028. More than 1,000 store uplifts had been completed by the latest quarter, and Starbucks has moved its China retail operation into a joint venture in which it retains 40%, still seeing potential for up to 20,000 stores there. The stock trades at 30.86x forward earnings, and according to Insider Monkey's database, 64 hedge funds held Starbucks in Q2, down slightly from 65 in Q1, while the value of those positions rose from $1.98 billion to $2.63 billion.

In its fiscal third-quarter results for the year ending August 2026, Saizeriya's domestic standalone operating profit came to 5.592 billion yen, 2.2 times the 2.534 billion yen of the same period a year earlier. Consolidated operating profit was 13.327 billion yen, up 25.6 percent year on year, while revenue rose 17.5 percent to 221.332 billion yen, both exceeding company forecasts. Growth was driven by customer traffic: domestic customer numbers rose 17.1 percent to about 173.76 million, while spending per customer edged up just 2.1 percent, from 844 yen to 862 yen. President Hideharu Matsutani said at a July 15 earnings briefing that the company would keep future price revisions in view while watching consumer price index trends, and the next day the stock hit the daily limit, rising 1,000 yen from the previous day to 6,780 yen. In April, the company cut its full-year consolidated operating profit forecast from 19 billion yen to 18.2 billion yen, citing higher rice prices, and the balance between the size of any price increase and customer traffic looks set to be the next focus.

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill and Starbucks reversed early losses and moved higher on speculation that the two chains could merge. Semafor raised the possibility that Chipotle and Starbucks could combine and run operations in a structure similar to Yum! Brands' KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell. The speculation follows reports last week that Chipotle enlisted bankers to fend off a potential takeover, which fueled guessing about who the interested buyer might be. Semafor's Rohan Goswami wrote that Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol spent more than a decade at Yum and understands that scale matters in razor-thin restaurant margins, and that Starbucks could provide a platform to grow Chipotle's nascent international business. Chipotle shares are 1% higher, while Starbucks jumped 1.7% on the development.

KFC has introduced Go Buckets, a new portable snack format that reworks its iconic bucket for individual, on-the-go eating. Starting at $3.49, each Go Bucket contains either four chicken nuggets, two wings, or one chicken tender, paired with fries or potato wedges, and is designed to fit in a standard car cupholder, making it KFC's first bucket specifically built for handheld convenience and eating while traveling. The launch targets snacking occasions outside traditional lunch or dinner, with each Go Bucket providing between 16 and 18 grams of protein depending on the chicken selection. The original Kentucky Fried Chicken bucket was introduced in 1957 as a family-style takeout meal, and the Smithsonian's National Museum of American History holds a KFC family bucket from around 1969. The new product will compete with snack-sized chicken offerings from McDonald's, Chick-fil-A, and Raising Cane's, and overlaps with Popeyes and Wingstop. Yum! Brands has owned KFC since the restaurant division was spun off from PepsiCo in 1997.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is entering 2027 with booking momentum and record pricing, with management saying early 2027 bookings are pacing ahead of historical levels at higher prices and booked load factors remain elevated. The company's expanding portfolio supports that outlook: Hero of the Seas is scheduled for delivery in the third quarter of 2027, while Celebrity Compass and Celebrity Seeker are expected to enter service in the second and third quarters, respectively. Royal Caribbean is also leaning on technology and loyalty, with AI-driven pricing models managing roughly $20 million and growing price points, and Points Choice and Status Match generating more than half a million new loyalty enrollments, while more than 90% of guests use the company's app and over half of onboard revenues are purchased before embarkation. Among peers, Carnival Corporation Ltd. is already about half booked for 2027 with occupancy and pricing at record levels and expects only modest capacity growth, while Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. is shifting to a baseloading approach and expects the first half of 2027 to remain pressured, particularly the first quarter, before sequential improvement. Royal Caribbean shares have declined 12.6% in the past year compared with the industry's 7.2% fall, and the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.06 versus the industry average of 15.81, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings implying a year-over-year increase of 13.8%.

The Cheesecake Factory is building on average unit volumes above $13.5 million at its namesake restaurants as it pushes ahead with expansion. Comparable sales rose 5.8% year over year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, including 2.7% traffic growth that beat the Black Box Casual Dining Index by 350 basis points, lifting restaurant-level margin at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants to 20%, the highest in a decade. The company plans to open as many as 26 restaurants across its portfolio in 2026, including five to six Cheesecake Factory locations, in line with its longer-term objective of 7% annual unit growth, backed by approximately $210 million in planned cash capital expenditures. Peers are also leaning on unit productivity: Shake Shack posted second-quarter 2026 average weekly sales of roughly $78,000, flat year over year, with Same-Shack sales up 3.5%, and plans 60 to 65 company-operated openings in 2026, while Dutch Bros reported a 5.8% rise in second-quarter 2026 system same-shop sales, opened 48 shops in the quarter and said it has about 90% of the development pipeline needed to reach its target of 2,029 shops in 2029. Cheesecake Factory shares have gained 40.3% over the past three months against a 15.9% decline for the industry, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate implies 2026 earnings per share growth of 20.2%.

Dao Securities rates the tourism sector "overweight" after tourist arrivals in the week of September 27 to October 3 rebounded 8% WoW, better than expected thanks to the Golden Week period, with the increase driven mainly by travellers from China, India and Russia. Excluding Malaysian tourists, arrivals still rose 10% WoW and 6% YoY, while Chinese tourists rose 2% YoY, slowing from 19% YoY the previous week. The research team believes arrivals bottomed out in the second quarter of 2026 and will recover strongly in the fourth quarter of 2026 on the high season and several events in December 2026. It expects total arrivals in 2026 at 32 million, down 3% YoY from 33 million in 2025, which itself fell 7% YoY, and forecasts Chinese tourists in 2026 at 4.8 million, up 7% YoY from 4.5 million in 2025, which fell 34% YoY. The stocks that benefit, ranked by their share of domestic hotels from highest to lowest, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT and SHR. CENTEL is the top pick with a target price of 48.00 baht, as third-quarter 2026 RevPAR excluding Dubai rose 5% YoY and fourth-quarter 2026 on-the-book bookings rose 13% YoY. ERW, with a target price of 4.20 baht, benefits from the World Bank and IMF meetings in October 2026 and Tomorrowland in December 2026, with bookings continuing to push the occupancy rate as high as 80% already.

Asia Plus Securities said in a research note that Thailand's tourism sector still looks set for solid growth. During China's Golden Week from September 27 to October 3, 2026, Thailand received 522,532 foreign arrivals, up 8% from the previous week, driven by 133,946 Chinese tourists, a rise of 42% from the prior week. Although foreign arrivals in the third quarter of 2026 fell 5% year on year, they rose 3.5% from the previous quarter, and excluding the Malaysian market the decline was only 0.9%. Key markets continued to expand, with China up 12%, Europe up 1.5%, the Middle East up 13% and the Americas up 1.5%. The standout point is that hotel revenue is still growing faster than visitor numbers. Forward booking data indicates that revenue per room for CENTEL and MINT is likely to rise about 10-13% from a year earlier, while ERW targets revenue growth of 7% from a year earlier. International passenger volume at AOT in July to September 2026 fell 1.9% year on year, in line with the foreign tourist trend when the Malaysian market is excluded. As for the next catalyst, the market is watching the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank from October 12 to 18, 2026. Large international events of this kind are likely to benefit hotel operators such as ERW, AWC and CENTEL more directly than airport or airline businesses. On investment strategy, the brokerage remains positive on Thailand's tourism group, picking CENTEL as its top stock on the back of strong hotel business profit trends, while AOT and ERW remain attractive as stocks that stand to gain from international events and the recovery of Thailand's tourism sector.

Asia Plus Securities said the Golden Week holiday boosted weekly foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand to 522,532 during September 27 to October 3, rising about 8% week on week, driven mainly by China at 133,946, up 42% week on week. After Golden Week, sentiment is supporting investment ahead of the IMF-World Bank meeting from October 12 to 18, which the brokerage views as a major event that will lift revenue for hotel operators such as ERW, AWC and CENTEL more than for AOT and airlines. Hotel revenue is outperforming tourist numbers, with checks showing that for the third quarter of 2026, revenue per available room based on on-the-books data for Thai hotels such as CENTEL and MINT rose 10% to 13% year on year. MINT derives 50% of its revenue from hotels in the EU, while ERW still confirms a target of 7% year-on-year revenue growth. The research team remains focused on Thai tourism and picks CENTEL for its earnings momentum from the hotel business, followed by AOT and ERW as an event trade and a proxy for Thai tourism, and keeps its estimates, expecting hotel operators to be more resilient than airlines going forward given their diversified hotel portfolios, while new hotel openings by CENTEL and ERW will support continued growth over the medium term.

Metaplanet announced on October 5 that it has revised its capital allocation policy, setting a new guideline of allocating roughly 10-15% of total assets to a "strategic investment pool" for M&A and investments. The remaining roughly 85-90% will be held in Bitcoin. The company also announced the same day that it acquired a net 1,000 BTC in the third quarter of the fiscal year ending December 2026, bringing its holdings to 44,000 BTC. The NADA Bitcoin Index stood at about 13.55 million yen per BTC on October 5, which puts the market value of its Bitcoin holdings at roughly 596 billion yen, meaning the 10-15% strategic investment pool equates to about 66 billion to 105 billion yen. The strategic investment pool will be used for three purposes: M&A to build the foundation of a financial business, investment in overseas Bitcoin-related preferred securities, and investment funds for an asset management business, with Metaplanet Securities and SLE cited as M&A examples. Funding will in principle come from means that do not dilute common shares, including corporate bonds, borrowings, credit facilities secured by Bitcoin, and perpetual preferred stock. The guideline set out in the March policy, which called for keeping the outstanding balance of credit facility borrowings to generally less than 10% of Bitcoin's net asset value, will now apply only to borrowings for acquiring and holding Bitcoin, with strategic investment pool funding managed separately and excluded from that limit.

KFC is introducing Go Buckets, a new snackable menu line that pairs a choice of chicken with fries or wedges starting at $3.49. Each Go Bucket includes four nuggets, two wings or one tender, with six combinations ranging from 16 to 18 grams of protein, and in a first for KFC the buckets are designed to be handheld or fit in a standard car cupholder. KFC U.S. Chief Marketing Officer Melissa Cash said the new offering opens up a snacking occasion for the chain, citing Datassential data that 87% of consumers snack outside traditional mealtimes and National Restaurant Association figures showing nearly three out of four restaurant orders are now taken to go. The launch extends a bucket format that dates to 1957, when Colonel Harland Sanders and first franchise owner Pete Harman began filling paper buckets with 14 pieces of Kentucky Fried Chicken, five rolls and a pint of gravy. KFC Corporation, based in Plano, Texas, is a subsidiary of Yum! Brands and operates more than 30,000 restaurants in 150 countries and territories.

Starbucks is positioned to potentially beat earnings estimates again in its next quarterly report, with a positive Earnings ESP of +2.43% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The coffee chain has topped estimates in each of its last two reports, posting an average surprise of 21.21% over that span. In the most recent quarter, Starbucks reported earnings of $0.85 per share against the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.66 per share, a surprise of 28.79%. The prior quarter delivered earnings of $0.5 per share versus an expected $0.44 per share, a surprise of 13.64%. Zacks research shows that stocks combining a positive Earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time.

Metaplanet ended the third quarter with 44,000 Bitcoin after a net increase of 1,000 BTC, having sold 10,000 BTC and repurchased 11,000 crypto tokens during the period. The Japan-based crypto treasury company said the sale demonstrated its ability to convert Bitcoin into cash to meet financial obligations while keeping its long-term accumulation strategy intact. Under a revised capital allocation policy, Metaplanet plans to hold 85% to 90% of total assets in Bitcoin, with 10% to 15% allocated to strategic investments, and will use preferred stock, corporate bonds, and Bitcoin-collateralized financing while keeping crypto-related borrowing below roughly 10% of Bitcoin NAV. Its new net interest income strategy will invest in income-generating assets, including preferred securities issued by Bitcoin treasury companies, to fund further Bitcoin purchases. Metaplanet's Bitcoin income generation business produced ¥848 million, or $5.4 million, in third-quarter revenue, bringing nine-month revenue to ¥5.565 billion, or $35.4 million, with a third-quarter Bitcoin yield of 11.3% and an unchanged fiscal 2026 earnings forecast. Metaplanet stock traded about 3% higher at roughly $1.87, while Bitcoin traded near $86,000.

Bank of America upgraded DraftKings from Neutral to Buy, sending shares up 5%, with analyst Julie Hoover keeping a $27 price target that implies 45% upside. Hoover called the stock's 47% year-over-year pullback an attractive entry point, citing DraftKings' position as the third-largest player in prediction markets. BofA estimates prediction markets could generate roughly $400 million in fees for DraftKings by 2027, plus $200 million to $400 million from market-making, while a regulatory shutdown would remove the terminal value overhang. The firm lowered its 2026 EBITDA estimate from $625 million to $500 million but raised its 2027 EBITDA estimate from $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion, and said DraftKings could guide 2027 EBITDA in the $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion range. The $27 target is based on a 12x multiple of 2027 EV/EBITDA, and BofA said it wants stronger cost discipline in the core business to support 2028 margins.

Metaplanet announced on the 5th that it acquired a net 1,000 BTC in the third quarter of its December fiscal year, bringing its holdings to 44,000 BTC as of September 30 and making it the world's second-largest holder. During the quarter it sold 10,000 BTC while purchasing 11,000 BTC; preliminary figures show the sales averaged 12,470,098 yen per BTC for a total of 124.7 billion yen, while purchases averaged 13,626,928 yen for a total of 149.896 billion yen. The sales are intended to demonstrate that Bitcoin can be converted to cash as needed as the company aims to obtain a credit rating, and the sale amount exceeds the total principal balance of interest-bearing debt such as bonds and borrowings, though no repayment or redemption was carried out. On the same day, the company revised its capital allocation policy again, setting a guideline to hold Bitcoin as a core asset at roughly 85–90% of total assets while allocating about 10–15% to a strategic investment framework. The strategic investment framework will be allocated across three uses: M&A toward building a financial platform, investment in assets expected to generate stable earnings, and investment funds for the asset management business, and the company also newly introduced a net interest income strategy that invests funds raised through means that do not dilute common shareholders into assets including overseas Bitcoin-related securities.

PTC agreed to be acquired by Schneider Electric for $205 per share, valuing the software company's equity at more than $22 billion, with the transaction expected to close by the third quarter of 2027. PTC shares surged 36% premarket on the news. Brazilian stocks rallied after right-wing presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro edged out incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva by around 2 percentage points in Sunday's election, sending the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF up 12% and U.S.-listed shares of Itau Unibanco and Banco Bradesco up more than 13% each. Wells Fargo gained 1% after a Morgan Stanley upgrade to overweight from equal weight, while DraftKings popped over 5% on a Bank of America upgrade to buy from neutral, with analyst Julie Hoover expecting prediction markets to generate $400 million in fees for 2027 and between $200 to $400 million in market making. Estee Lauder rose 2.8% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight, citing its growth and earnings profile over the next several years.

Bloomin' Brands is stepping up investments in Outback Steakhouse remodels as part of its turnaround strategy, targeting roughly 85 locations in 2026 after completing about 31 refreshes through July. The company plans to invest $350,000-$400,000 per restaurant on targeted interior and exterior upgrades rather than costly overhauls, covering tables, chairs, floors, ceilings, bars, televisions, landscaping, lighting and paint. Management said remodeled restaurants have historically delivered a 100-200 basis-point traffic lift approximately six months to one year after completion, and with roughly 300 Outback locations still requiring similar attention, the opportunity remains sizable. The remodel program complements broader turnaround efforts, with Outback's guest metrics improving for the fourth consecutive quarter and service scores, food quality and value perception strengthening, though traffic still declined 2.8% in the second quarter. Bloomin' Brands shares have gained 47.5% over the past six months against the industry's 15.9% decline, and the stock trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 8.08 versus the industry average of 19.84.

Jim Cramer said he expects Chipotle Mexican Grill to bounce off its recent level, telling a caller on Mad Money that the stock has been at this price before and he thinks it will do so again. The comments came as the company reported quarterly revenue of $3.3 billion, up 9.3% year-over-year and ahead of consensus, with comparable restaurant sales up 2.2% on a 1% rise in transaction volume and a 1.2% increase in average check size. Digital sales accounted for 38.3% of total food and beverage revenue, and the company opened 100 new restaurants during the quarter, including 80 with the Chipotlane drive-thru format. Restaurant-level operating margins stood at 25.2%, compressed by wage inflation, higher utility expenses and expanded marketing costs, while management targets at least 7,000 restaurants across North America. Insider Monkey data showed 63 hedge funds held the stock at the end of the second quarter, down from 68, with Arrowstreet Capital the largest tracked holder after raising its position 29% to 21.24 million shares, and short interest at 3.6% of the public float.

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, has unveiled plans to develop a first phase of six budget hotels together with Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL. OR will hold a 49% stake and CENTEL 51%. Five of the sites are at service stations and one is outside a service station. The first three branches, already under construction, are in Kanchanaburi, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya and Songkhla, and are expected to open in the third quarter of next year. The other three, in Bangkok, Chonburi and Phuket, are undergoing environmental reports and will open in the second quarter of 2028. The six hotels use a combined investment budget of 700 million baht, with construction costs capped at no more than 1 million baht per room. Funding will be split 50% equity and 50% debt. The buildings will be five to six storeys tall, with average room sizes of 18 to 20 square metres and 79 rooms. The company targets a first-year occupancy rate of about 60%, rising to 60–70% in the second year, with a long-term goal of 75–80%. It estimates a gross profit margin of about 50%, an EBITDA margin of 40–45%, an EBIT margin of about 20%, and a net profit margin of no less than 10%. Room rates will range from 800 to 1,300 baht, with a loyalty programme linking Blue Plus Points and The ONE Points. Ratchasuda Rangsiyakul, Senior Executive Vice President of Special Business 1 at OR, said entering the hotel business will help lift traffic at its service stations from 3.9 million users per day to 5 million per day. The first six branches will serve as a pilot to test the system before expanding to a full 50 locations in 2031, and once the model proves successful the company will scale up through franchising. The joint venture will provide management services to a standard, and dealers in the group have already approached the company seeking to open hotels.