ASML Studies Building Over 110 EUV Systems in 2028 as 2027 Capacity Fills

UBS analyst Francois-Xavier Bouvignies maintained a constructive outlook on European semiconductor stocks heading into third-quarter 2026 earnings, naming ASML Holding NV, ASM International NV and STMicroelectronics NV as his top three picks in a September 29 research note. The investment bank raised its wafer-fab equipment forecast for 2026 through 2028, projecting total WFE reaching approximately $225 billion in 2027, up 43% year-over-year, with potential to climb toward $275 billion to $300 billion by 2028, and it keeps 2027-2028 earnings estimates more than 10% above consensus across the sector. ASML remains the top pick with a Buy rating and a €2,350 price target, and UBS expects the company to guide fiscal 2027 revenue growth above 30% year-over-year when it reports third-quarter results on October 14, with its third-quarter revenue estimate of €12.1 billion sitting 3% above consensus. ASM International is second, with UBS forecasting 36% revenue growth in fiscal 2027 versus consensus at 29% and 33% growth in 2028 versus consensus at 19%, translating to EPS estimates 10% above consensus in 2027 and 20% above in 2028 ahead of results due October 27. STMicroelectronics completes the top three with a Buy rating and €80 price target, as UBS sees 2027 EPS roughly 20% above consensus, silicon photonics revenues reaching about $2.0 billion in 2027 and $2.5 billion in 2028, and total datacenter revenues of approximately $2.5 billion, or about 14% of group sales, in 2027 rising to roughly $3.8 billion, or 19% of group sales, by 2028, with fourth-quarter revenue guidance expected up approximately 10% quarter-over-quarter when it reports on October 29.

Wells Fargo says semiconductor capital-equipment companies could be the biggest near-term beneficiaries of a potential TSMC expansion of 2-nanometer production. Analyst Joe Quatrochi wrote that reports of the possible capacity increase should be viewed as a potentially incremental positive opportunity for semi cap companies, though timing, size and node details are still unconfirmed. Building additional 2nm capacity would require significant spending on lithography, deposition, etching and inspection equipment, adding a layer of demand for suppliers supporting TSMC's fabs. Quatrochi pointed to the so-called Silicon Prairie as a logical location for a potential second U.S. campus, citing existing semiconductor operations in Texas from Texas Instruments, Samsung, Coherent and Terafab, plus TSMC's design service center in Austin. TSMC's major 2nm customers include Apple, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm, with Google, Broadcom, Marvell, Amazon and OpenAI also expected to use the advanced process.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co is accelerating its 2-nanometre capacity expansion, with monthly output projected to reach about 120,000 wafers by the end of 2026, ahead of earlier expectations of 90,000 to 100,000 wafers, according to Taiwanese publication EDN. Customers including Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm and MediaTek have recently raised orders for TSMC's 2nm family capacity by 10% to 20%, the report said, citing industry sources. TSMC is bringing five 2nm fabs online this year, two in Hsinchu and three in Kaohsiung, according to senior vice president Hou Yung-ching. Hou said first-year 2nm wafer output would be 45% higher than the first-year output of 3nm in 2023, while 2nm capacity is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 70% from 2026 to 2028.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and ASML Holding announced a collaborative industry initiative on September 8 to transition the semiconductor sector to a 12-inch Extreme Ultraviolet photomask format, replacing the 6-inch masks chipmakers currently use for High NA EUV systems. The shift aims to boost scanner productivity, eliminate stitching constraints on ultra-large chips, and lower long-term advanced node manufacturing costs, with the initiative targeting a pilot line by 2031 and 12-inch High-NA production by 2033. TSMC plans to adopt High-NA EUV starting in 2030, with the 12-inch masks providing a multi-year roadmap for scaling complex AI architectures. For ASML, establishing a 12-inch standard locks in the long-term economic case for its High-NA scanner line, supporting its 15% revenue expansion outlook, while for TSMC the larger format helps defend its leading-edge and AI/HPC manufacturing dominance. The decade-long roadmap carries execution risk, as the entire global supply chain, from mask blanks and inspection equipment to automated handling, must retool from scratch, and TSMC faces near-term gross margin dilution from its N2 ramp and overseas fab expansions while ASML contends with gross margin pressure in late 2025 and geopolitical growth uncertainties through 2026.