Banks Risk Losing $230 Billion in Payments Revenue to Stablecoins, Capgemini Report Warns

Visa is expanding its stablecoin infrastructure across nine blockchains and now supports more than 160 stablecoin-linked card programs, with payment volume up nearly 200% year over year. In fiscal 2026 year to date, about 17% of Visa's stablecoin-linked card volume came from business and commercial card programs, and its stablecoin settlement volume has crossed a $20 billion annualized run rate, up more than 15-fold from a year ago. The company launched the Visa Stablecoin Platform, introduced an onchain credit model in September 2026 that uses VisaNet settlement data, and expects its partnership with Bridge to take stablecoin-linked cards to more than 100 countries. Visa's Value-Added Services revenues rose to $3.8 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 from $2.8 billion a year earlier, while processed transactions rose 10% year over year to 71.7 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $16.3 billion in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, free cash flow reached $15.2 billion, and Visa returned $6.2 billion in the third quarter through dividends and share repurchases, including $4.9 billion of buybacks, with $28.4 billion still available under its repurchase authorization as of June 30, 2026.

Coinbase Global CEO Brian Armstrong said Citigroup has partnered with Coinbase to enable stablecoin payments for large institutional clients, calling the tie-up proof the crypto giant "has come a long way" since 2012. Under the partnership, Citi's institutional clients, including multinational corporations, will be able to accept stablecoin payments from customers at checkout through the bank's merchant-processing services, while Coinbase customers can use Citi's banking capabilities and automatically convert incoming cash into stablecoins. Armstrong recalled that getting a bank to work with Coinbase at its founding was "nearly impossible," and thanked Citi for the arrangement. Stablecoins are a key and rapidly growing revenue component for Coinbase, which shares interest income on reserve assets backing USDC with Circle Internet Group and monetizes customer balances on its platform; USDC held in Coinbase products hit an all-time high of $20 billion in the second quarter, more than 30% of all USDC in circulation. Coinbase shares finished Friday down 3.32% at $183.

SoFi Technologies and Mastercard announced that stablecoin settlement went live across SoFi Bank, N.A.'s debit and credit card program, migrating its entire US$25.00 billion card portfolio to SoFiUSD. SoFiUSD is the first stablecoin issued by a nationally chartered bank on Mastercard's global network, positioning bank-issued stablecoins as an operational bridge between traditional payment rails and blockchain infrastructure. The move connects to SoFi's April 2026 launch of Big Business Banking, which lets enterprises manage fiat and crypto, mint and burn SoFiUSD, and access real time payments in a single bank interface. SoFi's narrative projects $7.7 billion revenue and $1.6 billion earnings by 2029, requiring 21.6% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $1.0 billion from $636.3 million today, while the most pessimistic analysts saw SoFi reaching only about US$6.0 billion revenue and US$1.0 billion earnings by 2029.

CoinDesk reported on October 2 that Tether-backed Utexo plans to issue the US dollar-pegged stablecoin USDT on the Bitcoin network within October. The company's co-founder told CoinDesk that it has obtained a commercial license covering the issuance of USDT and the use of Tether's trademark. USDT was born on Bitcoin in 2014, but its main circulation base has since shifted to Ethereum and Tron, and this plan marks an effort to expand its use on Bitcoin again after more than a decade. Utexo is building a mechanism that allows USDT to be sent without disclosing transaction details, and plans to support direct exchange between Bitcoin and USDT as well as loans collateralized by Bitcoin, enabling exchanges, wallets, and payment providers to handle USDT on Bitcoin. The technology underpinning this mechanism is RGB, which handles assets on Bitcoin; it transmits and receives without placing transaction details on a public ledger, with the parties involved verifying them, which differs from Ethereum and Tron, where balance changes and transaction contents are recorded on a public ledger. Its approach to illicit use also differs from USDT on Ethereum: the co-founder explained that freezing assets in the same way is technically impossible, so the company will blacklist assets linked to sanctioned entities or illegal activity and share that information with exchanges and others, and blacklisted assets cannot be withdrawn as USDT to Ethereum or Tron. After issuance, the company plans to move forward with support for the Lightning Network.

Fiserv has launched the Roughrider stablecoin, a bank-to-bank settlement token built on Solana. Versa Bank issues the bank-only token, which serves a North Dakota network of more than 90 banks and credit unions. The coin is designed for interbank settlement among those institutions rather than for consumer retail use, replacing legacy systems such as Swift and ACH with near-instant, near-zero-fee transfers. The North Dakota effort is separate from a national network of regional and community banks that is launching its own bank stablecoin network. Because the token runs on Solana, its growth could drive demand for the network's gas fees.