Bank of Ayudhya expects the Monetary Policy Committee to keep the policy rate at 1.00% at its meeting on 26 August 2026, because the economy is expanding below potential and inflation may accelerate temporarily but is expected to return to the target range within the first half of 2027. The National Economic and Social Development Council reported that GDP in the second quarter of 2026 grew 1.9% from a year earlier, slowing from 2.8% in the first quarter of 2026 but above market expectations, and raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 2.2% from 2.0%. For the baht this week, 24 to 28 August 2026, Bank of Ayudhya sees a range of 32.40 to 33.00 baht per dollar, after the baht closed stronger at 32.68 baht per dollar last week, touching its strongest level in two months, even as foreign investors sold Thai stocks and bonds worth 3.456 billion baht and 3.922 billion baht respectively. The dollar weakened against all major currencies after the US Treasury announced it would expand buybacks of long-term government bonds with maturities of 10 to 30 years from 2 billion dollars to at least 4 billion dollars, effective from 9 September to 4 November, reflecting policymakers' concerns and readiness to intervene further in the market. The main focus this week is global bond market conditions, energy prices, and the Federal Reserve chair's speech at Jackson Hole on 28 August.
Bank of Ayudhya PCLBAY expects MPC to hold rate at 1%, but no direct impact on BAY's operations or earnings is stated.
Dollar weakens on US Treasury buyback expansion, while baht strengthens to 32.68; BAY sees range 32.40-33.00.
