Bualuang Securities said AP's overall third-quarter 2026 earnings picture looks flat in profit terms, but underlying fundamentals are improving. It expects core profit of 1.16 billion baht, flat year on year and up 9% quarter on quarter, even though residential revenue rose 6% year on year to 9.4 billion baht, as share of profit from joint ventures fell 30% year on year. New joint-venture projects that began transfers in the third quarter of 2026 will recognize revenue of only about 10% of project value before真正 ramping up in the fourth quarter of 2026. Sales remain strong, with July and August at 4.5 and 4.9 billion baht respectively, totaling 9.4 billion baht over the two months. The highlight is margin recovery, with the residential gross margin expected at 31.1% in the third quarter of 2026, up 65 basis points year on year and 174 basis points quarter on quarter, and the overall gross margin at 32.0%, up 57 basis points year on year and 172 basis points quarter on quarter. SG&A expenses as a proportion of revenue held steady at about 19.4%, so the recovery is driven by margins rather than cost cuts. In addition, Rhythm Charoennakhon Iconic, which is 85% sold, has seen its average selling price rise from about 170,000 baht per square meter at launch to 180,000 baht per square meter currently, though most transfers will occur in the fourth quarter of 2026. It expects 2026 profit of 4.7 billion baht, up 9% year on year, with results weighted toward the second half, and the fourth quarter of 2026 likely to be the year's best quarter on accelerating condo transfers and better margins. It maintains a Buy rating with a 10 baht target price based on a 2026 PER of 7 times, while the stock trades at a PER of about 5.4 times and a dividend yield of about 7%, with the main drivers being accelerating transfers and margins.
AP (Thailand) Public Company LimitedBualuang maintains Buy with 10 baht target, expecting 2026 profit of 4.7 billion baht on margin recovery and accelerating condo transfers.
