Bualuang Securities issued an IDEA Call on CENTEL, maintaining a Buy recommendation with a target price of 49 baht, viewing CENTEL as a stock that stands to benefit greatly from the recovery in 2027 after pressure from Dubai, the Maldives, Japan, and Thai hotels under renovation is likely to ease simultaneously. It assesses that 3Q26 will probably be the weakest quarter before momentum clearly improves from 4Q26 through 1Q27. The research team states that its 2027 profit estimate still has upside from the base case of 2.54 billion baht because it does not yet assume a full recovery. It expects Dubai to post a loss of about 100 million baht in 2026 before returning to breakeven in 2027, the Maldives to move from a loss of about 200 million baht toward breakeven, and Japan to stop being a drag after the ADR base from the Expo is revised down. Meanwhile, the Hua Hin and Krabi hotels return to full-year revenue recognition after renovations are completed, with the opportunity to raise ADR by at least 10% after repositioning, which together has the potential to restore about 350 million baht in profit. If the recovery is fuller than the base case, 2027 profit could rise to about 2.73 billion baht, or roughly 7.5% upside to profit, supporting a sensitivity-based target price near 52 baht. Recovery signals are becoming clearer, with August RevPAR for the portfolio up 3-4% year on year, led by Thailand up 12% year on year and the Maldives up 30% year on year, while Dubai declined to about -20% year on year from -61% year on year in 2Q26 and Japan declined to -30% year on year from -46% year on year in 2Q26, reflecting pressure concentrated in only some areas. In addition, the share of long-haul customers at Bangkok hotels rose from about 32% in 2019 to 46% in the first eight months of 2026, with revenue from Russian, Chinese, and Israeli customers in the first half of 2026 growing 24%, 39%, and 43% year on year respectively. Customers from the UK, Germany, and the United States remain below normal levels, so there is still upside if these markets recover further. As of June 2026, there were 52 operating hotels with 11,394 rooms and a pipeline of 40 hotels with 8,507 rooms, most of which are managed hotels, helping growth after 2027 avoid relying solely on the recovery of the existing hotel cycle.
Central Plaza Hotel Public Company LimitedBualuang Securities maintains Buy on CENTEL with a 49 baht target price, citing 3Q26 as the bottom before a 2027 recovery.
