Impact on assets
Theme Impact 1
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▲impact 4
The TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, or TISCO ESU, assesses that global financial markets are entering a phase of capital competition, as governments around the world need to borrow heavily to expand defense budgets while private-sector big tech and hyperscaler firms seek to raise enormous sums to accelerate the buildout of data center infrastructure, chip fabrication plants, AI facilities, and power plants. This is pushing interest rates and government bond yields up by roughly 0.60 to 0.90 percent. Komson Prapakpol, head of the TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, said the United States plans to expand its defense budget from 1 trillion dollars to 1.5 trillion dollars, an increase of 50 percent, while Japan aims to raise defense spending from below 2 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP, the highest level since the period from 1970 to 1980. Germany and France are also accelerating increases in their security budgets. Thanaphat Thanachat, an analyst at TISCO ESU, said the United States has public debt exceeding 100 percent of GDP, or more than 40 trillion dollars, and a fiscal deficit as high as 6 percent of GDP per year, driving its interest burden to double that of four to five years ago. France's public debt has risen by nearly 20 percent of GDP between 2019 and 2025, with an annual deficit of 5 percent of GDP. As for the interest rate path of the three major central banks, TISCO ESU expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates one more time, by about 0.25 percent, at its December meeting, ending at 4.25 percent, and to hold at that level through 2027 before cutting in 2028. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates one more time, by about 0.25 percent, in December, while the Bank of Japan is expected to gradually keep raising rates until they reach 1.75 percent in mid-2027. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds is expected in the base case to hold steady at 5 percent through the end of 2026, but if the Federal Reserve fails to control inflation, the worst case could see the bond yield rise to 6 percent.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — Europe & Asia ▲Demand
Artificial Intelligence › AI Data Center & Build-out ▼Capital
Artificial Intelligence › Foundry & Advanced Packaging ▼Capital
Artificial Intelligence › AI Power & Cooling ▼Capital
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Naval Systems & Shipbuilding ▲Demand
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Grid, Transmission & Power Equipment ▼Capital
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
TISCO.BK · Monetary · Neutral TISCO ESU forecasts higher-for-longer rates (Fed to 4.25% through 2027), a macro-rate view from the group's research arm rather than a company-specific event.
impact 4
GM and Ford Expand Century-Old Rivalry Into Defense and Energy Storage
General Motors and Ford are taking their century-old rivalry into defense contracting and energy storage, CNBC reported on September 5. Ford joined GM this year in seeking U.S. military contracts after the Trump administration approached domestic automakers about using their mass manufacturing expertise, but GM is years ahead, already building a backlog around a U.S. Army contract for Infantry Squad Vehicles that could exceed $1 billion depending on congressional appropriations, and GM expects its 2026 defense revenue to grow to almost $700 million while targeting positive earnings in the segment this year. Both companies are also entering the energy storage system market, betting on rising electricity costs and data center power demand, with the global Energy Storage System market projected to grow from $668.7 billion in 2024 to $5.12 trillion by 2034. Ford Energy sits within its Model e electric vehicle segment, which is guided to a $4 billion loss in 2026 before targeting breakeven by 2029, and CEO Jim Farley told investors in July that Ford is in the third inning of selling out 20 gigawatt-hours of energy storage production capacity, backed by a five-year framework agreement with EDF Power Solutions North America.
About megatrends
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Energy Storage & Grid Flexibility Competition
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States Competition
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Soldier Systems & Protective Equipment Competition
F · Demand · Positive Ford joined GM in seeking U.S. military contracts and is selling out 20 GWh of energy storage capacity under a five-year EDF framework agreement
GM · Demand · Positive GM is years ahead with a U.S. Army Infantry Squad Vehicle contract potentially exceeding $1 billion and expects 2026 defense revenue near $700 million
EDF Power Solutions · Demand · Positive EDF Power Solutions North America signed a five-year framework agreement backing Ford's 20 GWh energy storage capacity
▲2impact 5
US strikes Iran, Iran announces missile and drone retaliation
The United States launched strikes on targets of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) inside Iran at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), following attempts to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. personnel in the region. CENTCOM has not disclosed the number and locations of the targets hit, nor the munitions used. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the strikes were large and powerful, and were retaliation against Iran after it attempted to lay naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz and fired missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan. He warned that if Iran retaliates, the U.S. will escalate with heavier and more severe strikes. Later, Iran's Tasnim news agency reported that the Iranian military has begun decisive operations, and that U.S. bases and interests across the region will be targeted by Iranian missiles and drones. The situation makes a prolonged war more likely and could create political pressure ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump's approval rating at 33%, and only 36% of Americans approve of war with Iran. The strikes mark a new escalation in the conflict, after the U.S. and Iran resumed tit-for-tat attacks over the weekend for the first time in about a month. On Sunday, U.S. forces struck a rocket launch site on Iran's Larak Island, and Iran responded by firing missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan, but they were intercepted. The United Arab Emirates also said it intercepted Iranian drones over its waters. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important energy transit route; before the war, about one-fifth of global oil supply passed through it, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The escalation increases risks to shipping and energy transport through the Strait, which could create volatility in global oil markets.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles & Precision-Guided Munitions ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Ammunition & Energetics ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Software & C4ISR ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Space Defense & Missile Warning ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Electronics, EW & Sensors ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Sovereign Supply — Minerals & Reshoring Industrials ▲Demand
3
OSI Systems Reports Record Q4 Earnings and Backlog
OSI Systems reported fourth quarter revenues of $484 million, down approximately 4% year over year, while delivering record non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.78, up 17%. Full year revenues reached a record $1.79 billion, up 4%, and adjusted earnings per share grew to a record $10.35, up 11%. The company ended the year with a record backlog of approximately $1.9 billion, and fourth quarter operating cash flow was a record $182 million. Management attributed the revenue shortfall to about $50 million of planned security deliveries deferred beyond the June 30 fiscal year end due to conflict-related delays and site access constraints in the Middle East, emphasizing these are deferred, not lost, orders. For fiscal 2027, OSI Systems guided revenues of $1.875 billion to $1.93 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $11.13 to $11.49.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Soldier Systems & Protective Equipment Demand
OSIS · Capital · Positive Record EPS, revenue, backlog, and strong guidance indicate solid financial performance.
▲3
Stryker Stock Jumps on $100 Million Defense Contract Modification
Stryker shares rose 2.7% after its Stryker Sales unit in Michigan won a $100 million contract modification from the US Defense Logistics Agency. The U.S. Department of Defense announced the award, as reported by MarketScreener. The stock closed at $340.05, up 2.6% from the previous close. Stryker is down 2.3% since the beginning of the year and trading 13.8% below its 52-week high of $394.34 from September 2025.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Soldier Systems & Protective Equipment ▲Demand
SYK · Demand · Positive Stryker's unit won a $100 million defense contract modification from the US Defense Logistics Agency.
▲
Virtuix Omni One Orders Jump 150% After Meta Launch
Virtuix Holdings reported first quarter fiscal 2027 results with Omni One orders up 72% year-over-year and approximately 150% since the launch of Omni One for Quest in collaboration with Meta. Net sales were $0.8 million compared to $1.0 million in the prior-year period, which benefited from fulfillment of the final batch of legacy backlog accumulated since 2023. Gross profit increased 29% and gross margin expanded to 30% from 17%, while net loss per share narrowed from $0.28 to $0.22. The company also announced defense expansion including a U.S. Marine Corps Infantry Fireteam Trainer, a counter-UAS trainer, a U.S. Air Force SBIR Phase I award, and first deployment to the Air National Guard. Omni One Enterprise expanded to Tesla for humanoid robot teleoperation, NASA for a Moon and Mars exploration analog mission, and Sirica Therapeutics for AI-driven healthcare.
About megatrends
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Soldier Systems & Protective Equipment ▲Demand
Robotics & Physical AI › Consumer & Home Service Robots ▲Demand
Robotics & Physical AI › Robotics AI & Embodiment Software ▲Technology
VTIX · Demand · Positive Omni One orders up 150% since Meta launch, gross margin expanded
META · Demand · Positive Omni One for Quest launch in collaboration with Meta drives orders up 150%