TISCO Financial Group Public Company Limited

Shares of Plan B Media Public Company Limited, or PLANB, rose 6.47% to 7.40 baht on trading value of 128.00 million baht after Tisco Securities stated in an analysis that the PLANB board approved subscribing to newly issued shares of iCare Insurance totaling 1,126.3 million shares, or 46.28% of the shares after the capital increase, at 0.7636 baht per share, for a total investment value of 860 million baht. The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. After the capital increase, iCare will become a joint venture of both PLANB and Com Seven Public Company Limited, or COM7, with each holding an equal direct stake of 46.28% in iCare, while PLANB holds 11.01% of COM7. Tisco views the deal as a long-term positive, noting that iCare's profit rose from 62 million baht in 2024 to 148 million baht in 2025 and 219 million baht in the first half of 2026, which included an extraordinary item of about 61 million baht, leaving normalized profit at approximately 158 million baht, or about 316 million baht on an annualized basis, equivalent to a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of about 5.9 times, below the roughly 9 times at which insurance businesses trade. Tisco also raised its 2026-2027 profit forecasts by 8% and 32% respectively, excluding the iCare business, and maintained its buy recommendation with a 2027 target price of 8.00 baht per share based on the sum-of-the-parts method, applying a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times for PLANB and 17 times for COM7.

Ms. Thida Kaewbutta, Director of Strategy at Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited, or SAWAD, disclosed that the company is preparing relief and assistance measures for customers affected by flooding. The title-loan portfolio will see only limited impact because the flooding occurred only in certain areas, and she is not worried that credit quality will be downgraded from Tier 1 to Tier 2 or Tier 3. She also expects lending to grow in line with the targets set for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, Mr. Trin Sittisawas, Director of Securities Analysis at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) Company Limited, stated that commercial banks and non-bank lenders will face short-term impacts from debt-relief measures by the government sector and the Bank of Thailand, which will slightly pressure yields and may force additional provisioning over roughly one to two quarters. Commercial banks will be affected only to a limited degree because they have shifted their customer base toward large corporates and salaried employees. As for TISCO and KKP, although they have auto-hire-purchase loans, most of their portfolios consist of new cars covered by insurance against flooding, so KKP is seen as a standout stock if its price declines. The non-bank group is more at risk, especially TIDLOR and SAWAD, which hold four-wheel vehicle title-loan portfolios. TIDLOR has a significant proportion and is more exposed to collateral value and the prices of repossessed cars, while SAWAD has SCAP, which focuses on motorcycle hire-purchase that is easier to repair and has already accelerated write-offs at a high level. MTC, whose main portfolio is motorcycle title loans and whose customer base is not concentrated in flooded areas, is a standout stock. Meanwhile, AMC players such as BAM face limited impact and may even benefit from buyer behavior that places less emphasis on locations prone to flooding.

Trinity Securities has issued an analysis of TISCO Financial Group Public Company Limited, or TISCO, forecasting third-quarter profit of 1.766 billion baht, flat quarter on quarter and up 2% year on year. Net interest income is expected to improve slightly by about 2% quarter on quarter, driven by loan growth of roughly 0.6% quarter on quarter from the hire-purchase loan segment, while funding costs are expected to decline slightly further on deposit repricing. Non-interest income is expected to rise about 1% quarter on quarter. Loan-loss provisions in the third quarter are expected to be higher, possibly reflecting excess provisioning to cushion against macroeconomic volatility and developments during the quarter. Trinity's research team recommends holding TISCO shares with a 2027 target price of 115 baht, noting the current share price offers no upside to the target even after including dividend returns. TISCO shares traded at 128 baht this afternoon, up 1.00 baht or 0.79%, with turnover of 223.38 million baht.

The TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, or TISCO ESU, is warning that Thai SME operators are facing multiple risks: harder access to funding, rising financial costs, production costs pushed up by inflation, slowing consumer purchasing power, and intensifying competition. Methas Rattanasorn, head of economic research at TISCO ESU, said that more than half of the inventory increase in the second quarter came from categories where sales fell but stockpiles rose, such as automobiles, petroleum, and chemicals, which could drag on economic growth from the first quarter of 2027 onward. He also noted that exports in the first two quarters of 2026 grew 20%, but the manufacturing sector grew only 0.1%, reflecting that goods produced for the domestic market barely grew and were displaced by Chinese products. Meanwhile, Thailand's exports rely increasingly on imported goods and components, rising from 48% in 2018 to about 70% today, creating a hollowing-out effect, with real economic value added barely moving since mid-2024. Methas proposed that the government use tax incentives for operators that use domestic raw materials and labor, or local content, such as tax exemptions for using 50% local content, following the example of Singapore, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia. Thakorn Piyapan, chief executive of TMBThanachart Bank, or ttb, said the group of greatest concern is operators that have opened many branches to the point of fierce market competition, such as beverage shop chains. Rising-star businesses that align with an aging society include pet-related businesses, both dog and cat hotels and pet food, as well as health hospitality, massage, meditation, and health food, along with niche-market businesses such as small boutique hotels, electronic components and AI, and clinics certified by the Food and Drug Administration, or FDA. Electric vehicle businesses still have opportunities, especially repair shops that adapt to serve EVs, including paint repair, inspections, and specialized services. Thakorn advised SMEs to start with small, modest investments first to gauge the market, and not to rush into opening 10 branches at once.

Prateep Tangmatitham, a major shareholder of RATCH Group Public Company Limited, or RATCH, has clearly reduced his shareholding. He now holds 18,845,650 shares, or 0.87%, down from 27,335,450 shares, or 1.26%, marking his lowest stake in six years compared with 31,930,650 shares, or 1.47%, on September 3, 2025. This reduction earned him gains from share price appreciation and dividends proportional to his holding of about 13.19 million baht, after RATCH announced an interim cash dividend of 0.70 baht per share, payable on September 24, 2026. RATCH shares rose 29.66% during 2026. In the latest shareholder structure, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand is the largest holder with 978,750,000 shares, or 45.00%, followed by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand Savings Cooperative Limited with 128,224,936 shares, or 5.90%, and the Social Security Office with 101,870,550 shares, or 4.68%. Tisco Securities recommends a hold rating on RATCH with a fair value of 37.00 baht, viewing data centers as a potentially significant growth opportunity. RATCH is studying the development of a data center hub to support peak electricity demand of 1,400 megawatts and is in talks with five to six potential data center customers.

The TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, or TISCO ESU, assesses that global financial markets are entering a phase of capital competition, as governments around the world need to borrow heavily to expand defense budgets while private-sector big tech and hyperscaler firms seek to raise enormous sums to accelerate the buildout of data center infrastructure, chip fabrication plants, AI facilities, and power plants. This is pushing interest rates and government bond yields up by roughly 0.60 to 0.90 percent. Komson Prapakpol, head of the TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center, said the United States plans to expand its defense budget from 1 trillion dollars to 1.5 trillion dollars, an increase of 50 percent, while Japan aims to raise defense spending from below 2 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP, the highest level since the period from 1970 to 1980. Germany and France are also accelerating increases in their security budgets. Thanaphat Thanachat, an analyst at TISCO ESU, said the United States has public debt exceeding 100 percent of GDP, or more than 40 trillion dollars, and a fiscal deficit as high as 6 percent of GDP per year, driving its interest burden to double that of four to five years ago. France's public debt has risen by nearly 20 percent of GDP between 2019 and 2025, with an annual deficit of 5 percent of GDP. As for the interest rate path of the three major central banks, TISCO ESU expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates one more time, by about 0.25 percent, at its December meeting, ending at 4.25 percent, and to hold at that level through 2027 before cutting in 2028. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates one more time, by about 0.25 percent, in December, while the Bank of Japan is expected to gradually keep raising rates until they reach 1.75 percent in mid-2027. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds is expected in the base case to hold steady at 5 percent through the end of 2026, but if the Federal Reserve fails to control inflation, the worst case could see the bond yield rise to 6 percent.

Asia Plus Securities recommends that investors use the volatility in share prices driven by fund flows to accumulate commercial banks with strong balance sheets, giving top weighting to KTB, followed by KBANK and BBL, which is a catch-up play at a PBV of only 0.6 times versus the sector average of 1.2 times. Global bank stocks declined, with the MSCI ACWI Banks index falling 1.2% day-on-day compared with the MSCI ACWI, which rose 0.1% day-on-day, after US commercial banks declined, led by WFC, JPM and BAC, on concerns over a bear-flattening yield curve after 2-year US Treasuries rose faster than 10-year notes, following the Fed's higher-for-longer signal. The research team notes that the structure of Thai commercial banks differs from that of the US, with Thai bond yields of 2 to 10 years rising by an average of only 14 basis points quarter-to-date from the end of the second quarter of 2026, while US yields rose by an average of 53 basis points, because Thai banks' funding comes about 87% from deposits and about 9% from the interbank market, which is mainly tied to the policy rate, while bonds linked to bond yields account for only 4%, unlike JPM, where non-deposit interest-bearing liabilities account for about 36% and deposits about 64%. On valuation, Thai bank stocks have an average PBV of 1.2 times, or 1 time excluding TISCO, compared with an average of 1.6 times for major overseas banks, while the sector's average dividend yield is 5.4% versus 4.4% for major overseas banks. The research team maintains its view that net interest income for large banks is likely to gradually recover quarter-on-quarter from the third quarter of 2026, in line with Thailand's stabilizing interest rate cycle, and recommends a barbell strategy, with the other side being tourism-related stocks expected to offer upside, namely CENTEL, AOT and ERW, on sentiment ahead of the tourism season.

Brokers still expect TISCO to keep growing, though the current share price trades above its 10-year average. Pi Securities maintained a "Hold" rating and raised its base valuation to 125 baht, applying a 2027 base value calculated using the GGM method at 16% ROE and 2% TG, based on 2.2x PBV'27E. On operations, it expects net profit in 3Q26 at 1.761 billion baht, up 1.8% year-on-year but down 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, and expects the NPL ratio to hold steady at 2.1%. The research house kept its forecast for 2026 net profit growth of about 5%, continuing at 3% in 2027, and expects a dividend yield of 6.2% in 2027. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities maintained a REDUCE rating and kept its TP27F at 115 baht, as it views the stock's 13% rise year-to-date as trading at a forward PBV of 2.4x, or plus two standard deviations, already reflecting the strength of its dividend maintenance at an annual dividend yield of 6.2%. It expects 3Q26F net profit at 1.78 billion baht, up 3% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher NIM on total loans and service fee income, and by the absence of a large special provision like in 3Q25, while the NPL ratio stands at 2.12%, unchanged from 2Q26.

Nattakrit Laothawisap, Head of Wealth Advisory at TISCO Bank, said that for the remainder of the year the stock market will come under pressure from oil prices expected to stay elevated amid the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, pushing inflation higher, and central banks are expected to raise interest rates, including Europe and Japan. Most recently, the US Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise rates by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00%, and is likely to raise them again in December 2026 to 4.00-4.25%. This marks the first return to policy rate hikes since 2023, pushing the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds to a 20-year high of 5%, while the real yield stands above 2.6%, the highest in 18 years. TISCO Wealth Advisory therefore recommends three portfolio adjustments: increase the weighting of global bonds, maintain the weighting of energy stocks that benefit from tight supply, and reduce the weighting of growth stocks whose P/E is higher than the market, shifting instead to quality Value stocks with reasonable prices, strong earnings and high cash flow, such as financials, healthcare and industrials. It pointed to the lesson of the rising interest rate cycle in 2022, when the P/E of the MSCI ACWI Growth index fell by about 30%, while the P/E of MSCI ACWI Value fell by about 20%.

DELTA shares fell 5.95% to 237.00 baht on trading value of 11.6 billion baht after Tisco Securities reported that Delta Electronics Int'l (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., or DEISG, a wholly owned Singapore subsidiary of Delta Taiwan, is preparing to issue zero-coupon exchangeable bonds worth a total of $1.5 billion, with the DELTA shares it holds, a 42.85% stake, as the reference shares. The bonds are split into two tranches. The first, worth $500 million, matures on September 21, 2027, with an exchange price set at 266.80 baht per share. The second, worth $1 billion, matures on September 21, 2031, with an exchange price set at 301.60 baht per share. That represents premiums of 15% and 30% respectively over the reference price of 232 baht per share. The transaction involves no new share issuance, so it does not affect existing shareholders, and if the exchange rights are fully exercised it would amount to roughly 172.1 million DELTA shares, or 1.38% of total paid-up shares. Tisco sees the deal potentially pressuring the share price in the short term through investors' hedging activity, as well as an overhang from shares that could be exchanged in the future, which may cap gains around 267 to 302 baht. It therefore maintains a hold rating with a fair value of 268 baht. Meanwhile, KGI Securities (Thailand) maintains a buy rating and has raised its end-2027 target price to 320 baht from 290 baht, while lifting its 2026-2027 profit forecasts by 2% to 6%.