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S&P Global IncCanadian Oil Sands Output to Hit Record 3.5 Million b/d in 2026, S&P Global Energy Says
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Canadian oil sands production is expected to average a record 3.5 million barrels per day in 2026, a 100,000 b/d increase of 3% from the previous year, according to the latest S&P Global Energy 10-year production outlook. That would mark the 25th straight year of growth since 2001, when annual output was just 300,000 b/d, with the only interruption coming from COVID-19-related impacts in 2020. The bulk of the 2026 growth is expected to come from optimization of existing facilities, but S&P Global Energy says a potential renewed appetite for capacity additions through new construction is adding upside to the longer-term outlook, which currently sees production reaching 3.9 million b/d by the early 2030s before roughly plateauing. Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Markets Analyst at S&P Global Energy, said the question today is not whether the oil sands will continue to grow but how much additional growth could come should new projects once again come forward, citing announced plans for expanded pipeline export capacity, the clarification, reduction and extension of carbon pricing to 2040, commitments to accelerate reviews for projects deemed in the national interest, and potential changes to fiscal terms. Celina Hwang, Director of Canadian Crude Oil Markets, said S&P Global Energy estimates nearly half a million barrels per day of incremental production capacity could come forward beyond what is currently in the outlook, representing the most attractive and expedient projects, with the potential for more given the right conditions and time. The final implementation agreement related to the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding, expected on November 15, 2026, will be telling for the outlook.
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