Casey's Q1 EPS Jumps 27.7% as Analysts Split on Fuel-Driven Beat

Insider Monkey·23 Sep 2026·

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Earnings Analyst Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail

CASY ▲

Summary · why it matters

Casey's General Stores reported a 27.7% jump in fiscal 2027 first-quarter EPS and kept its full-year guidance intact, yet the stock sold off as Wall Street debated whether the beat was driven by sustainable growth or an unusually strong fuel margin. Fuel margin reached 47.8 cents per gallon, up 6.8 cents year-over-year, pushing fuel gross profit 19.6% higher to $446.9 million, while fuel same-store gallons slipped 0.3%. Inside the stores, Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverages same-store sales rose 4.8% with a 10.7% two-year stack and gross margin expanding 130 basis points to 59.3%, lifting total inside gross profit 6.3% to $749.8 million. Analysts reset targets in both directions: BofA cut to $875 from $975 with Buy, Stephens cut to $750 from $975 with Overweight, Goldman Sachs lowered to $750 from $795 with Neutral, UBS reduced to $720 from $925 with Neutral, and JPMorgan lowered to $687 from $833 with Neutral, while Deutsche Bank raised to $933 from $927 with Buy and RBC lowered to $910 from $913 with Sector Perform. CEFCO remodeling disrupted roughly 1% of the store base in Q1, and management expects the next tranche to create an even larger drag before benefits emerge, potentially not until Q4. Latest 13F filings showed AQR Capital Management increasing its stake 195% to 213,943 shares, GLG Partners raising its position 73% to 138,999 shares, and Arrowstreet Capital initiating 126,911 shares, while Marshall Wace and Quantinno Capital each trimmed holdings by about 1%.

Caseys General Stores Inc ▲