Bank of America Corp

Bank of America's Savita Subramanian said in a note that the trade of buying AI capex beneficiaries while selling white-collar-threatened industries and consumption may be starting to come under pressure, and that it may be time to selectively pivot. She wrote that it is dangerous to underestimate the appetite of US consumers and that capex strength may be more priced in than not. The call came as the Nasdaq hit a fresh record high, with gains described as relatively broad-based and almost all S&P 500 groups higher. The note also flagged that high-paying white-collar jobs are increasingly at risk, with a continued trade down among those professionals from wants to needs, evident in staples stocks catching some buying versus discretionary names. Nvidia stood out among movers, while Mercado Libre was the best performer in the Nasdaq 100.

Fewer than half of wealthy Americans, 47%, believe the next generation is prepared to take on family philanthropic causes, down from 55% in 2024, according to research from Bank of America released last week. The share of parents who believe their children share their commitment to giving back fell even more sharply to 65% from 76%, based on a survey of more than 1,430 wealthy individuals in the U.S. aged 21 or older with at least $3 million in investable assets, excluding primary residence. The findings come as the $124 trillion Great Wealth Transfer gets underway, and the confidence gap mirrors broader anxiety among wealth advisors about whether heirs are ready for any of it. Yet the study also shows younger donors are more engaged by several measures: Gen Z and millennial donors support an average of 12 charitable causes versus eight among wealth donors overall, are roughly twice as likely to use a donor-advised fund, and 87% say honoring their family's philanthropic tradition is important, while 86% say establishing their own charitable identity matters equally. Generations also diverge in method, with 92% of baby boomer and Silent Generation donors giving through cash contributions versus just 56% of Gen Z and millennial donors, who favor charitable trusts, family foundations, fundraising, and mentorship.

Private infrastructure fundraising hit a record $250.70 billion globally in 2025, more than 150% above the prior year's $98.80 billion, as the artificial intelligence super-cycle pulls capital into the physical backbone of computing. Private equity investment in data centers alone reached $45.70 billion in 2025, the highest total in at least five years, and a typical global infrastructure fund's exposure to digital infrastructure has climbed from just 5% a decade ago to 25-30% today. Companies supplying that buildout have posted sharp gains: Quanta Services is up 60.3% year to date on 41% second-quarter 2026 revenue growth, Caterpillar has surged nearly 48% with a 24% rise in quarterly revenue, and Eaton has climbed 37% on 21% revenue growth. Bank of America analysts project the AI data center systems addressable market will reach $1.7 trillion by 2030 at a 45% CAGR. The iShares Global Infrastructure ETF attracted $1.485 billion in fund-level flows over the year ending August 2026, lifting its assets under management to roughly $10.1 billion.

A recent Betterment survey of 1,000 U.S. retail investors found that 52% of Gen Z investors redirected money intended for investing into sports betting in the past year, with 14% doing so multiple times a month and 26% treating sports betting as a deliberate part of their long-term financial strategy. Bank of America, which tracked payments flowing to and from betting platforms, found that customers across every generation recovered less than 75 cents for every dollar they sent in each month this year, with Gen Z faring best at more than 80 cents per dollar but still well short of breaking even. In July, as the World Cup fueled a spike in betting activity, Gen Z and millennials made up 88% of all online betting activity, according to BofA, with Gen Z alone accounting for 48% and overtaking millennials as the largest generational share of bettors for the first time. BofA also found that median deposit balances for betting households in 2026 were just 59% of those of non-betting households, and a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found that credit card delinquencies among sports bettors under 40 jumped 26% after legalization. A separate Urban Institute survey of more than 3,000 adults found that 17% of Gen Z adults had bet on sports in the past year, and 15% of Gen Z sports bettors said they have saved less money than they would have if they weren't betting, even as 56% of Gen Z respondents believe their personal finances will improve in the next year.

Domestic gold prices opened on October 5 up 200 baht per baht-weight of gold from yesterday's close, according to an announcement by the Gold Traders Association at 9:16 a.m. Gold ornaments were selling out at 66,950.00 baht per baht-weight and buying in at 64,627.08 baht per baht-weight, while gold bars were selling out at 66,150.00 baht per baht-weight and buying in at 65,950.00 baht per baht-weight. Gold Spot stood at 4,160.50 dollars per ounce. In global markets, spot gold fell 0.8% to 4,145.68 dollars per ounce and has already lost about 3.3% this week, heading for a second consecutive weekly decline, pressured by a stronger dollar and high U.S. government bond yields. The moves followed a U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showing an increase of only 29,000 jobs, below the 90,000 expected by economists surveyed by Reuters, prompting investors to cut the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month to about 22% from about 70% early in the week, according to CME FedWatch data. Bank of America warned of the risk that gold could fall below 4,000 dollars in the fourth quarter due to high yields, a strong dollar and a tight Fed policy.

Bank of America reiterated a Buy rating on Advanced Micro Devices and raised its price target to $720 from $620, citing the company's opportunity to capture a larger share of the rapidly expanding server CPU market. The firm expects the server market to grow from approximately $61 billion to $211 billion by 2030, with roughly $180 billion of that total tied to AI workloads, and sees agentic AI boosting demand for CPUs that coordinate workloads and manage data alongside GPUs. AMD's data center revenue rose 107% in the second quarter to $6.72 billion, driven by EPYC server CPUs and Instinct GPUs, while client business revenue climbed 23% year over year to $3.1 billion on Ryzen demand. The stock has gained more than 180% in 2026 and trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 39X, roughly double Nvidia's 19X, though AMD's gross margin of 54% trails Nvidia's roughly 75%. Hedge fund participation increased to 164 funds holding AMD as of the second quarter, up from 134 in the first quarter, while short interest stood at approximately 39.98 million shares as of September 15, about 2.46% of the float.

Bank of America's Michael Hartnett is recommending investors "buy humiliation" and start adding bonds to their portfolios as long-run U.S. Treasury returns hit their lowest point in a century. In the latest Flow Show note, Hartnett said global asset allocators are heavily positioned in equities to ride the "final melt-up in US tech" while remaining very short on bonds, and argued that this historically poor fixed-income performance is a prime entry point, comparing it to lucrative buying opportunities that followed negative long-run returns in stocks in 1939, 1974 and 2009 and in commodities in 1933 and 2018. He acknowledged that a 100 to 200 basis point decline in bond yields would require a credit event or recession, but contended that bond portfolios are already nearing equity-like returns. The shift appears to be materializing, with weekly capital movement into government debt marking the largest inflow to U.S. Treasury funds since May 2026. Within corporate credit, U.S. investment-grade tech bond prices have dropped 9% over the past year, driving yields up from 4.5% to 6.2%, and Hartnett suggested long-term hyperscaler bonds from Oracle yielding 8.4%, Meta at 7.5% and Google at 6.9% may soon tempt buyers, reasoning that AI development is effectively backstopped by the U.S. government.

Bank of America said in a new note to clients that falling real bond yields could turn from a headwind into support for equities, though it remains negative on European stocks. The bank noted European equities have been flat since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war despite accelerating growth, with the global PMI on track to reach about 54.5 in September, the strongest reading since 2018 excluding the pandemic. That strength, alongside above-target inflation, an improving U.S. labor market and rising energy prices, has pushed the Fed and the European Central Bank back into tightening mode, and the resulting rise in U.S. 10-year real yields has offset a 13% surge in forward earnings estimates for the Stoxx 600. BofA's macro analysts expect only short hiking cycles, with a further 50 basis points from the Fed and 25 from the ECB, significantly more dovish than the 80 to 90 basis points markets have priced in, while its rates strategists see about 25 basis points of downside for the U.S. 10-year real yield by year-end. The bank said it remains negative on European equities and underweight cyclicals versus defensives, expecting the equity risk premium to rise and translate into nearly 10% further downside for the Stoxx 600.

Bank of America Corp.'s Michael Hartnett says investors will keep shunning riskier trades until the dollar's recent surge shows signs of peaking. In a note, the strategist also said market jitters are likely to persist until rising bond yields ease from their highest levels in more than two decades, and he recommends to "buy the humiliation" by starting to add some bonds to portfolios. The Bloomberg dollar index has risen 3% from a September low as investors rebuild cash cushions by exiting riskier assets, a move accompanied by rising bond yields driven by inflationary pressures from the Iran war, expectations of more monetary policy tightening ahead, and strong corporate earnings growth. Hartnett said recent price action suggests markets have been cutting leverage and reducing risk, but there is likely a floor in the form of more aggressive Treasury buybacks from the US administration, particularly if rising yields were to threaten the AI investment boom ahead of the US midterms in November. He added that downside risks would become more worrying if small and mid-cap stocks joined banks in their steep decline, which would signal that optimism about strong economic growth has peaked and ultimately weigh on technology stocks.

Bank of America analyst Chris Nardone said Walmart will likely need to raise prices selectively to protect margins, after hosting Walmart CEO John Furner and investor relations senior vice president Steph Wissink for meetings in Boston. Nardone wrote that oil and diesel prices continue to rise, driving upward pressure on commodity costs, and that vendors are starting to increase prices. He noted that rollbacks across grocery and general merchandise peaked last quarter at 11k and should normalize to a lower number in the second half, which, combined with the egg deflation lap, is driving higher inflation expectations relative to earlier this year. The latest inflation readings show price pressures remain elevated: the August Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% from a year earlier, core CPI increased 2.9%, the Fed's preferred PCE gauge rose 3.4% year over year in August, and the August Producer Price Index rose 5.4% over the prior year. Walmart management described the consumer backdrop as stable, citing good back-to-school results and noting that the pronounced trade-down behavior seen during the 2022 oil shock has yet to materialize, aided by favorable wage growth and labor market conditions.

Partners Group Holding AG is exploring a potential sale of Finnish modular building manufacturer Parmaco Oy, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter. The Baar, Switzerland-based private equity firm is working alongside Bank of America Corp. to evaluate options for the business, which could carry a valuation of approximately €1.5 billion, or $1.7 billion. Deliberations remain at an early stage, and the buyout firm may ultimately elect to retain the asset; should a transaction proceed, a sale would likely materialize in 2027. Partners Group originally acquired Parmaco in 2021 from a consortium led by Terra Firma Capital Partners for an undisclosed sum, and the platform has since expanded beyond its core Nordic markets into broader European jurisdictions. Headquartered in Finland, Parmaco designs, constructs, and leases modular structures used primarily as schools, day care centers, residential units, and healthcare facilities, operating across Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Germany with annual turnover of roughly €100 million and a workforce of around 300 employees. Shares of Partners Group Holding AG traded 1.8% higher in Europe following the news.

Investors are watching the personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, for August, due for release tonight Thailand time. A survey of economists by Dow Jones expects both the headline PCE index and the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, to rise 0.3% month on month. On a year-on-year basis, headline PCE is expected to rise 3.7% and core PCE 3.3%, unchanged from July, still far above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Michael Barr, one of the Fed governors, said tariff measures and a protracted war with Iran have stalled progress toward the inflation goal, and the Fed will likely need to keep raising rates. Meanwhile, John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, pointed to the expansion of the artificial intelligence industry as another factor keeping inflation high, but struck a more dovish tone than Barr, saying another rate hike may be needed this year. On the consumer side, Wall Street economists expect U.S. consumer spending to rise 0.8% in August after a gain of just 0.2% in July. Bank of America reported that spending via debt and credit cards rose 6.9% from a year earlier in the week ending September 19, partly driven by gasoline expenses, which jumped 26.5%. Excluding that spending, overall outlays still rose 5.7%. However, data from the Conference Board released last night showed its consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, the lowest since 2014 and below the Bloomberg survey estimate. Views on current economic conditions dropped nearly 8 points to the lowest since 2021, while expectations for the next six months fell to the lowest in more than a year.

Shares of KCE Electronics Public Company Limited, or KCE, rose 4.32% to 78.50 baht on trading value of 995.24 million baht after Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, together with BofA Global Research, initiated coverage of KCE with a buy rating and raised its target price to 104 baht from 67.75 baht, based on a target price-to-earnings ratio of 38.1 times. Analysts believe KCE's 2025 earnings have likely passed their trough and that the company is entering a new upcycle, forecasting net profit of 1.529 billion baht in 2026, up 95% from the previous year, and 3.212 billion baht in 2027, up 110% from the previous year and about 69% above market estimates. For 2028, net profit is expected to rise further to 4.174 billion baht. The drivers come from the recovery of the PCB industry, growing PCB demand in EVs and software-defined vehicles, and tightening automotive PCB supply amid the AI boom. The satellite communications business is expected to account for about 16% of PCB revenue in 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. KCE is also in talks with Tesla to make PCBs for humanoid robots, having passed part of the qualification process and awaiting final design approval. BofA estimates the global humanoid robot market could be worth as much as 100 billion US dollars by 2033, with global shipments rising nearly fivefold from about 290,000 units in 2027 to 1.2 million units in 2030.

For the August personal consumption expenditures price index that the U.S. Commerce Department will release on the 30th, the median market forecast in a Reuters poll is a 0.4% rise month-on-month, with growth expected to accelerate from the previous month's 0.2% gain. The core index is seen rising 0.3%, personal consumption expenditures up 0.8%, and personal income up 0.4%. Bank of America estimates the PCE price index will rise 0.4% and the core index 0.3%, in line with consensus, and expects that because the Commerce Department is partly revising its calculation method starting this time, the year-on-year figures will be pushed down by about 0.2 percentage points for both the headline and core measures, to 3.6% and 3.2% respectively. RBC Economics forecasts a 0.3% rise in the PCE price index and a 0.2% rise in the core index, lower than consensus, noting that inflation in medical services is broadly mild but that higher airfares offset that effect, and stating that the revision to the calculation method will hold down the year-on-year figures. The forecasts, as of the 29th, are medians from 49 firms for PCE and 56 firms for core PCE, with projections of 0.4% for PCE and 0.3% for core PCE, both at 0.2% in July.

The Federal Reserve's latest 25-basis-point rate hike to a target of 3.75-4% could provide another tailwind to First Horizon Corporation's net interest income, or NII, as the bank enters a favorable asset-repricing cycle. First Horizon appears well-positioned for higher rates, with 58% of loans variable rate and another 12% in adjustable-rate mortgages as of June 2026, while about $5 billion of fixed-rate loans and $1 billion of lower-yielding securities are set to mature or generate cash flows over the next year. The company estimates that a 100-basis-point rate increase would boost NII by 2.9% over 12 months, suggesting the latest 25-basis-point hike should be modestly positive, though the benefit will depend on deposit pricing and balance-sheet trends. In the second quarter of 2026, First Horizon's NII increased 5% year over year to $679 million, while its net interest margin expanded 9 basis points to 3.49%, though its interest-bearing deposit rate rose to 2.33% as brokered deposits increased. Among peers, Bank of America's NII is estimated to rise by $1 billion over 12 months from a 100-basis-point parallel rate increase, and Citigroup's by $1.2 billion, though higher deposit costs and potential securities losses could temper those benefits.

BofA Securities raised its price target on Johnson & Johnson to $278 from $263 while keeping a Neutral rating, lifting its forecasts for Icotyde and updating its model for recent in-process research and development charges. The new target applies 22x BofA's 2027 earnings estimate excluding those charges, up from 20.33x, which the firm tied to a sector re-rating for defensive stocks. For the third quarter, BofA expects sales of $25.5 billion, in line with consensus, and EPS of $2.53, 12% below the Street, with J&J having disclosed $0.64 of in-process R&D dilution for 2026, mostly falling in the third quarter. BofA models 6% revenue growth, with Pharma up 7% and MedTech up 4%, and points to IQVIA data showing four-week rolling prescriptions up 50% year over year for Tremfya in inflammatory bowel disease and 60% for Caplyta in major depressive disorder. Separately, J&J is reportedly in talks with Apollo Global Management over a potential sale of its orthopedics unit, which could be valued at nearly $20 billion.

Bank of America has completed several fixed-income offerings totaling more than US$239.00 million across senior unsecured callable notes, while also declaring regular dividends on multiple preferred stock series and expanding its apprenticeship and workforce development commitments in the US. The bond issuance and ongoing preferred dividends are described as incremental rather than a material near-term shift for the bank, whose key supports and risks still center on interest rate trends and credit conditions. The US$150.00 million workforce and apprenticeship expansion is the clearest link to Bank of America's existing investment story, reinforcing its push into skills-based hiring and operational efficiency alongside technology spending. Bank of America's narrative projects $137.1 billion in revenue and $38.0 billion in earnings by 2029, requiring 6.4% yearly revenue growth and a $5.9 billion earnings increase from $32.1 billion, with a $68.11 fair value implying 20% upside to its current price. Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$68 to US$91 per share.

Polymarket wagers on the failure of major banks including Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. are drawing scrutiny from Washington officials, according to people familiar with the matter. The contracts remain a tiny piece of the prediction market's offshore platform, which says it bans Americans from trading, but they have raised concerns among bank regulators and lawmakers on Capitol Hill who worry the bets could grow in volume and eventually help fuel a real-world bank run. Wagers on individual bank failures total just a few hundred dollars in many cases, though volume in some contracts ranges into the thousands of dollars for firms like Deutsche Bank AG and Wells Fargo, and recent trades tied to banks failing by the end of this year have attracted $76,000 in overall volume, while an earlier set of wagers focused on failures by July saw $591,000 in trading. Officials inside the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. expressed concern in recent weeks when the contracts were highlighted to senior staff at an internal meeting, questioning whether there was any legitimate commercial or investment benefit and whether the agency's internal ethics restrictions were strong enough to prohibit insiders from trading on the platforms, though officials ultimately decided existing ethics rules were strong enough. FDIC Chairman Travis Hill said at a private fireside chat in March that although prediction markets could be a very useful tool for monitoring, he is worried about people using the platforms to speculate on the timing of bank failures. Polymarket Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar defended the markets as aggregating information typically available only to the most sophisticated financial institutions, while Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana called the bank-failure wagers in poor taste, former FDIC head Sheila Bair warned they introduce dangerous incentives, and Senator Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, called the contracts reckless.

Bank of America raised its price target on Advanced Micro Devices to $720 from $620 while keeping a Buy rating, sending AMD shares up 0.5% Friday. Analyst Vivek Arya cited a more favorable outlook for server processor demand, pointing to a recent CPU agreement between Anthropic and Akamai as support for the role of server processors as artificial intelligence applications spread. The revised target sits above the $648.07 Wall Street consensus and implies about 2.41% potential upside. Arya estimates the server CPU market could expand from $61 billion in 2026 to $211 billion by 2030, and he raised his AMD estimates by 2% for 2027 and 3% for 2028.

Bank of America is warning that a sharp jump in bond-market volatility is raising the risk of a broader deleveraging event, putting investors on alert as Treasury yields remain elevated and financial conditions tighten. Strategist Michael Hartnett pointed to a 35% surge in the MOVE Index over just two days, saying the spike signals growing stress inside the Treasury collateral system. Hartnett said a wider selloff could emerge if global financial stocks weaken further while bond-market volatility remains elevated, and he outlined another risk-off setup in which bond yields keep climbing even if oil prices fall. In Bank of America's baseline view, rising yields remain the most likely threat to the current economic and market boom, though Hartnett expects policymakers to act if market stress becomes severe enough, which could ultimately cap yields and weaken the U.S. dollar. The bank favors commodities and emerging-market assets while also highlighting potential opportunities if yields peak, including 30-year Treasuries, mega-cap technology, small caps, biotech and real estate.