Chinese refineries have suspended exports of refined oil products for October 2026 as China seeks to shore up its domestic oil market, according to sources cited by Dao Securities. China entered a week-long holiday last Thursday and has not yet approved major refineries in the world's largest refining hub to export fuel products to regions other than Hong Kong and Macau for October 2026. Previously, China restricted fuel exports in March 2026 after conflict in Iran disrupted crude oil supply from the Middle East, before easing measures in July and managing diesel, gasoline and jet fuel shipments on a monthly basis. It remains unclear whether China will resume allowing refineries to export goods after the holiday ends on October 7, 2026, and this may depend on domestic fuel inventory levels and refinery capacity. Meanwhile, China's National Development and Reform Commission has not yet responded to requests for comment due to the public holiday. The move is seen as positive for refineries in the short term, as export restrictions will help support product price spreads and crude oil prices. For the overall refinery business outlook in the third quarter of 2026, refineries as a group are expected to report earnings that continue to grow year on year but soften quarter on quarter, tracking market and base refining margins that benefit from strong crack spreads but are offset by high freight costs and refinery price cuts. The investment rating for the energy sector remains at market weight, and upstream energy stock PTTEP remains favored with a target price of 180.00 baht, supported by expectations that average oil selling prices will hold at high levels in the third quarter of 2026.
PTT Exploration and Production Public Company LimitedChina's halt of refined product exports supports crude oil prices and high average oil selling prices, favoring upstream producer PTTEP, which remains favored with a 180 baht target.
China suspending refined product exports tightens global fuel supply, supporting product price spreads and heating oil prices.
