China Reduces Agricultural Imports, Thai Trade Office Warns Thailand to Prepare, Rice and Sugar at Risk

Kaohoon·2 Sep 2026·

2▲0 ▼4Impact / 5

Macro Commodity RICE ▼CORN ▼SUGAR ▼WHEAT ▼

Summary · why it matters

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) revealed that China is likely to reduce its agricultural imports over the next decade, particularly rice and sugar, which could impact Thailand's exports. Meanwhile, China's grain output in 2025 hit a record high of 715 million tons, and meat production surpassed 100 million tons for the first time. Corn imports fell by 80.6% and wheat imports by 64.4%, while exports of vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products increased by 6.4%, 4.4%, and 7.5%, respectively. However, China continues to increase fruit imports by an average of 6.1% per year, and poultry meat imports are expected to reach 1.27 million tons by 2035, growing at an average of 2.4% per year. Meanwhile, China's rice imports are expected to decline by an average of 9.1% per year to 0.95 million tons by 2035, and sugar imports will drop to 4 million tons as China boosts domestic production by 2.5% annually. TPSO recommends that Thai businesses upgrade product quality, especially premium fruits and processed goods, and diversify export markets.

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